Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[WhiteTailAB]

Just ordered 1 of the last 3 small 3m half masks on Amazon for my fiance.

One thing I read about during the Newfoundland blizzard was people trading cigarettes for baby formula etc. Hope you got some bartering goods.

[WhiteTailAB]

https://mobile.twitter.com/horsiss1/...91993662578688

Gun shots in the background? Bang bang, double tap, bang bang. Etc

[raab]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Wow. Trollers will troll...

True, the majority of deaths have been elderly or weak. Heard a two year old recently died. Everyone is so focused on the death reports. There are many many more, across all ages and perfectly healthy prior, with severe symptoms, and many many more, not diagnosed/reported in the available statistics. The sky is falling due to transmission rate. It's crazy. The social and economic impact will be insane. People won't be leaving their homes, nobody will be going to work and be able to pay their bills, or buy food. It is deeply concerning. SARS was nothing compared to this based on the pattern presented. 3.4% death rate now (which is only reported statistics, which I think are actually much much higher).

Scarier part is that this virus is highly mutagenic, and as it spreads exponentially, the chances of it evolving to something much more deadly increase exponentially as well.
This is only in its infancy. Potential is massive.

Normally I would walk away from a thread like this, where there are a bunch of trollers, and people discrediting my validity of statement. It's such a big deal in my opinion that I am sticking with it. Discredit my opinion if you like, troll away

I worked in public health, what you’re doing is not helping. All your information is secondary information, and not reliable given the country it’s coming from. At times like these you need to remain calm until you’re 100% sure of what your dealing with, how bad it will be, and how you will deal with it. Make no mistake our country is prepared for a severe viral outbreak if it should occur. For now it’s worth monitoring the situation, but not worth getting to worked up about. Let’s wait until we actually have something to worry about here in Canada, before we build hysteria and have everyone with a cough going to emergency thinking they have corona virus. Until it’s a real emergency here, people should continue to enjoy their lives and not worry about it.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by raab

I worked in public health, what your doing is not helping. All your information is secondary information, and not reliable given the country it’s coming from. At times like these you need to remain calm until you’re 100% sure of what your dealing with, how bad it will be, and how you will deal with it. Make no mistake our country is prepared for a severe viral outbreak if it should occur. For now it’s worth monitoring the situation, but not worth getting to worked up about. Let’s wait until we actually have something to worry about here in Canada, before we build hysteria and have everyone with a cough going to emergency thinking they have corona virus. Until it’s a real emergency here, people should continue to enjoy their lives and not worry about it.

Being calm does not help if there is a possibility of an outbreak being prepared does.

How can you sit and type and tell people to bypass information?

Your idea is do nothing until people start piling up or WHO says it is time to do something?

The very idea of a forum is to discuss and trade information, he is doing nothing evil or hysterical.

Buy masks if you like, take vit c/d, wash your hands and stay off Cathay Pacific planes and out of airports.

Uh-oh there I did it too- mass panic will now start

[raab]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

Being calm does not help if there is a possibility of an outbreak being prepared does.

How can you sit and type and tell people to bypass information?

Your idea is do nothing until people start piling up or WHO says it is time to do something?

The very idea of a forum is to discuss and trade information, he is doing nothing evil or hysterical.

Buy masks if you like, take vit c/d, wash your hands and stay off Cathay Pacific planes and out of airports.

Uh-oh there I did it too- mass panic will now start

What he’s doing is scaring people. If people want to prepare go ahead. If you want to buy masks go ahead, just realize you may not even need them at this point.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by raab

What he’s doing is scaring people. If people want to prepare go ahead. If you want to buy mask go ahead, just realize you may not even need them.

I am prepared. Getting a little more so too. Gonna stock up on some food and essentials today. I am not scared, I am being educated on facts.

This is as much of a 'prepper' as I have ever been.

He is spreading information.

I do not think anyone in here that has read this thread is looking for counselling or lost a minutes sleep.

If you don't want to buy a mask, don't.

Just be prepared you may need them at some point.

We were all in a Hospital yesterday. We all wore masks. Why not be careful?

[Zip]

Originally Posted by WhiteTailAB

Sorry, I forgot you had all the answers.

My mom always said its hard to learn anything if you are always talking...in this case posting negative stuff just because...I've been silent here as I am learning from the credible fella...Oh and that's not you by the way.
Zip

[raab]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

I am prepared. Getting a little more so too. Gonna stock up on some food and essentials today. I am not scared, I am being educated on facts.

This is as much of a 'prepper' as I have ever been.

He is spreading information.

I do not think anyone in here that has read this thread is looking for counselling or lost a minutes sleep.

If you don't want to buy a mask, don't.

Just be prepared you may need them at some point.

We were all in a Hospital yesterday. We all wore masks. Why not be careful?

The problem is his information is not reliable

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by raab

The problem is his information is not reliable

How so? Example please.

Also, thanks Ken. Just trying to share my educated opinion/thoughts.

[raab]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

How so? Example please.

Where are you getting your information from?

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by raab

Where are you getting your information from?

All over. Example of one statement I've made that is inaccurate, please. I've included links to credible sources in multiple posts. Grow up bud. Not feeding the trolls. Done with you.

[raab]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

All over. Example of one statement I've made that is inaccurate, please. I've included links to credible sources in multiple posts. Grow up bud. Not feeding the trolls. Done with you.

News papers are not credible sources. Give me some peer reviewed medical journals. You fail to realize that newspapers may not have the correct information and may be spreading incorrect information which youre basing your analysis on.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by raab

What he’s doing is scaring people. If people want to prepare go ahead. If you want to buy masks go ahead, just realize you may not even need them at this point.

Absolutely the out break may turn out to be nothing. Every chance it will. I would have more faith however if it wasn't China. The chance that they are telling the truth to the worlds medical community are next to zero. On a poor credibility and honesty scale the Chinese are only surpassed by the Russians (and even that may be a tie). As a country they don't have nearly enough health care infrastructure to come close to dealing with the volume of patients they have, so to assume the reported numbers are accurate is fool hardy in the extreme.

[Ken07AOVette]

https://www.google.ca/search?sxsrf=A...31.GMLdhLcroJM

Just so I don't 'scare anyone'

*disclaimer*

You are going to read about sickness, death, cities being closed, people worrying about loved ones.

But do not fear, of the 791,000,000 results in .04 seconds, it may not 'all' be true.

[Ken07AOVette]

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Suspends Tours Abroad as Xi Warns of ‘Grave Situation’
The authorities reported 15 new deaths in Wuhan, the center of a virus outbreak, including a medical professional in his 60s.

RIGHT NOW The State Department has ordered all American workers at the United States Consulate in Wuhan to evacuate.
Here’s what you need to know:
China moves to restrict travel, including tours abroad.
Fifteen more deaths are reported, including a medical specialist.
Xi Jinping, China’s leader, says the nation will ‘beat the epidemic.’
U.S. orders the evacuation of American consulate employees.
Hong Kong declares a state of emergency and shuts schools.
People without symptoms could be spreading the virus.
China is building two hospitals to fight the outbreak. Projected completion times: 10 and 15 days.

The spread of a deadly new virus is accelerating, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned, after holding a special government meeting on the Lunar New Year public holiday.

The country is facing a "grave situation" Mr Xi told senior officials, according to state television.

The coronavirus has killed at least 41 people and infected some 1,400 since its discovery in the city of Wuhan.

Travel restrictions have already hit several affected cities.

And from Sunday, private vehicles will be banned from central districts of Wuhan, the source of the outbreak.

A second emergency hospital is to be built there within weeks to handle 1,300 new patients, and will be finished in half a month, state newspaper the People's Daily said. It is the second such rapid construction project: work on another 1,000-bed hospital has already begun.

Specialist military medical teams have also been flown into Hubei province, where Wuhan is located.

The urgency reflects concern both within China and elsewhere about the virus which first appeared in December.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by raab

News papers are not credible sources. Give me some peer reviewed medical journals. You fail to realize that newspapers may not have the correct information and may be spreading incorrect information which youre basing your analysis on.

I asked you, what have I said inaccurate. Peer reviewed journals are part of it. Start there, troll. Anyways. However you respond, I will not be responding again.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Absolutely the out break may turn out to be nothing. Every chance it will. I would have more faith however if it wasn't China. The chance that they are telling the truth to the worlds medical community are next to zero. On a poor credibility and honesty scale the Chinese are only surpassed by the Russians (and even that may be a tie). As a country they don't have nearly enough health care infrastructure to come close to dealing with the volume of patients they have, so to assume the reported numbers are accurate is fool hardy in the extreme.

Exactly, we can not trust the information we have.

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by raab

What he’s doing is scaring people. If people want to prepare go ahead. If you want to buy masks go ahead, just realize you may not even need them at this point.

That's the thing. What harm does giving people a heads up or preparing for the worse do?

I'll admit, I've bought some extra masks, gloves, filters ect. I've also bought some extra food to add to what we already have on hand. Next plan is to make sure I've got extra fuel. I'll probably go as far as to make sure I've got extra chainsaw oil and spark plugs ect.

Now, if nothing happen, GREAT! I'll use the food, fuel, toiletries and even the masks get used in the shop. The only difference is it will be a slight hedge against inflation on the ever rising cost of groceries and goods.

The only reason it wouldn't make sense to me is if your financial situation is so bad that you will miss bills or have to put these things on a visa. Luckily for me and a few of my friends here, we aren't in that situation at this point.

A little piece of mind never hurts anything. I've used a spare tire twice in millions of km driven, yet I still carry a dang spare. Pointless?

[raab]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I asked you, what have I said inaccurate. Start there, troll.

I asked you for the peer reviewed medical journals you got your information from? If you were to give a talk on this outbreak citing newspapers as your source of information you’d be laughed out of the auditorium. As I said youre causing hysteria based on unreliable information, when at times like this we don’t need it. If you want to give you’re opinion fine, but at least acknowledge that the information your basing it on could be flawed.

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by raab

Exactly, we can not trust the information we have.

Good point! Very true. Do you see any benefit to the Government controlled media in China OVER exaggerating the severity of this? I don't, I see the only benefit for them is to down play it until they can't anymore.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by raab

Exactly, we can not trust the information we have.

Absolutely. But if you worked in health care I'm sure that you would agree that the information given out on those sick (and deceased) is in fact grossly underestimated. The numbers of patients to GP's in China is somewhere between 5000-10000 to 1 so how many get in to see a physician for cold symptoms?

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by raab

I asked you for the peer reviewed medical journals you got your information from? If you were to give a talk on this outbreak citing newspapers as your source of information you’d be laughed out of the auditorium. As I said youre causing hysteria based on unreliable information, when at times like this we don’t need it. If you want to give you’re opinion fine, but at least acknowledge that the information your basing it on could be flawed.

If you want to wait until the official final mortality survey when this is all said and done, before you 'panic' go ahead, your decision.

I'm not panicking or scared but picking up a few extra things I will use. I'm also reading what I can about this thing. No source for info on this virus can be trusted 100% at this point IMO.

[raab]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

That's the thing. What harm does giving people a heads up or preparing for the worse do?

I'll admit, I've bought some extra masks, gloves, filters ect. I've also bought some extra food to add to what we already have on hand. Next plan is to make sure I've got extra fuel. I'll probably go as far as to make sure I've got extra chainsaw oil and spark plugs ect.

Now, if nothing happen, GREAT! I'll use the food, fuel, toiletries and even the masks get used in the shop. The only difference is it will be a slight hedge against inflation on the ever rising cost of groceries and goods.

The only reason it wouldn't make sense to me is if your financial situation is so bad that you will miss bills or have to put these things on a visa. Luckily for me and a few of my friends here, we aren't in that situation at this point.

A little piece of mind never hurts anything. I've used a spare tire twice in millions of km driven, yet I still carry a dang spare. Pointless?

The problem is it causes people to worry about things they wouldn’t normally worry about. This can put an extra burden on the medical system that’s already maxed out. If you want to prepare fine, but don’t be so scared that you stop living your life at this point. Just be mindful of the situation, and take extra precautions if going to China. Also don’t eat any snakes or bats.

[raab]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

Good point! Very true. Do you see any benefit to the Government controlled media in China OVER exaggerating the severity of this? I don't, I see the only benefit for them is to down play it until they can't anymore.

The benefit of overplaying it is that they can use the military against a people that were starting to use violence in an effort to maintain their freedom in Hong Kong, and was gaining popularity on the mainland. I don’t doubt the Chinese would overplay this situation so that the PR to the rest of the world doesn’t look as bad when they lock down their cities with the military.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Absolutely. But if you worked in health care I'm sure that you would agree that the information given out on those sick (and deceased) is in fact grossly underestimated. The numbers of patients to GP's in China is somewhere between 5000-10000 to 1 so how many get in to see a physician for cold symptoms?

O for sure, also another reason we can’t trust the stats. Could be 10,000 infected but it’s so mild they’re not going to the doctor. The 42 that died could have been exposed to the virus by eating the host animal, and not as secondary infection via human to human transmission. Just a lot we don’t know at this point.

[KGB]

Got this link earlier today, don’t know how reliable this site is so take it with the grain of salt I guess....
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index...d-112-000-dead

[bdub]

Originally Posted by raab

News papers are not credible sources. Give me some peer reviewed medical journals. You fail to realize that newspapers may not have the correct information and may be spreading incorrect information which youre basing your analysis on.

Not a peer reviewed medical journal but a summary of some early stats on the data that gives a prediction on how it may unfold. Time will tell, no one knows at this time how this thing go. It's scaring a the crap out of China judging by their reaction as this thing has progressed. Hopefully its turns into nothing major. We should hearing from the WHO before to long.

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions
Jonathan M. Read1

, Jessica R.E. Bridgen1

, Derek A.T. Cummings2

, Antonia Ho3
, Chris P.

Jewell1
Affiliations:
1. Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
2. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Gainesville, United States of America.
3. Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
United Kingdom.
Correspondence: jonathan.read@lancaster.ac.uk
Key findings
● We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly
greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of
transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop
increasing.
● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified,
indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the
difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for
rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to
occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to
international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020),
our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250
thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the
largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou,
Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or
special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel
are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in
travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.
● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the
assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These
should be considered when interpreting our findings.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by bdub

Not a peer reviewed medical journal but a summary of some early stats on the data that gives a prediction on how it may unfold. Time will tell, no one knows at this time how this thing go. It's scaring a the crap out of China judging by their reaction as this thing has progressed. Hopefully its turns into nothing major. We should hearing from the WHO before to long.

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions
Jonathan M. Read1

, Jessica R.E. Bridgen1

, Derek A.T. Cummings2

, Antonia Ho3
, Chris P.

Jewell1
Affiliations:
1. Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
2. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Gainesville, United States of America.
3. Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
United Kingdom.
Correspondence: jonathan.read@lancaster.ac.uk
Key findings
● We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly
greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of
transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop
increasing.
● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified,
indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the
difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for
rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to
occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to
international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020),
our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250
thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the
largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou,
Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or
special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel
are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in
travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.
● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the
assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These
should be considered when interpreting our findings.

Those numbers seem much more realistic.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by KGB

Got this link earlier today, don’t know how reliable this site is so take it with the grain of salt I guess....
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index...d-112-000-dead

Yeah. You would think satellite imagery or pics would pop up of them dealing with mass casualties. Grain of salt for sure...

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by bdub

Not a peer reviewed medical journal but a summary of some early stats on the data that gives a prediction on how it may unfold. Time will tell, no one knows at this time how this thing go. It's scaring a the crap out of China judging by their reaction as this thing has progressed. Hopefully its turns into nothing major. We should hearing from the WHO before to long.

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions
Jonathan M. Read1

, Jessica R.E. Bridgen1

, Derek A.T. Cummings2

, Antonia Ho3
, Chris P.

Jewell1
Affiliations:
1. Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
2. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Gainesville, United States of America.
3. Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
United Kingdom.
Correspondence: jonathan.read@lancaster.ac.uk
Key findings
● We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly
greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of
transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop
increasing.
● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified,
indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the
difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for
rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to
occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to
international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020),
our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250
thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the
largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou,
Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or
special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel
are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in
travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.
● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the
assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These
should be considered when interpreting our findings.

Who was saying my initial numbers were out to lunch?