US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[2 Tollers]

This CDC site gives information by state on outbreak stats as well as Hospital utilization -- nationally and on a state level.

Use the tabs at the top to search demographics, cases, Hospital Impact --- hover over a state for data, summary comparisons on the left. The data is updated 3 times a week

https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#cases

[comaderek]

Originally Posted by glen moa

Let’s keep cutting through the lies.

How many deaths this year vs last? That tells a big part of the story.
Anyone got the numbers?

Deaths of what? Total in a country of every cause?

[glen moa]

How ever it makes the most sense.
Like one heavy hit states total deaths in June 2020 vs June 2019.

[comaderek]

Originally Posted by glen moa

How ever it makes the most sense.
Like one heavy hit states total deaths in June 2020 vs June 2019.

I think u would need to itemize every type of death and see what attributed to the increased or decreased totals. Example if traffic accidents went down it could be that people are staying home and less traffic on the street .
One safe thing to say is last years covid deaths would be zero and this years would be more.
Or like looking at two past years and noting hey deaths were really high one year but less in year prior. One year before WW2 started and year it started.
People look for numbers that support their points without understanding or auditing those numbers and verifying why they are what they are.
In this thread you will see numbers and stats being thrown out all over the place but we forget to open our eyes and see what is in front of our face to explain what is really going on.

[glen moa]

Yes it is only part of the puzzle. But it’s a good start.
A person may think that if the deaths are lower this year then last Covid is being beat.
You have to have some way of measuring. It’s difficult. People aren’t going to agree. But do the best we can and maybe most will agree.

Canada said flatten the curve so we didn’t run out of ventilators. Looks like we weren’t even close to running out.

[EZM]

That rationale seems to make no sense as there were exactly zero deaths attributed to Covid last time this year.

The deaths are caused by Covid and would represent a significantly incremental increase over "other" deaths like car accident, heart attacks, old age, etc...

Not sure what the "argument" would be other than grasping at straws to try and feed into the agenda that this thing is "no big deal" and "we are doing a great job" or other dribble like that. I'm pretty sure the families of the 140,000 dead in the US of the 1,000,000 resolved cases would share my opinion just as much as the next 200,000 that will die from the already diagnosed and unresolved 2.4 million awaiting their fate.

If anyone even suggest this is not a concern, they are either ignorant, or are refusing to admit there's a real problem here and don't care about lying or misleading others and don't value their own reputation and credibility. Maybe the election and "being right" even if you are wrong is of greater value to the administration.

The statistics are clear. This is a problem in the US. A very big one and the death toll is forecasted, using current death rates published from the CDC to approach or exceed 350,000 in the next few months in the US alone.

Even if they do a total shut down, and stop everything TODAY, the death toll would be double what it is today in a few months.

[comaderek]

I don’t think covid will be beat for long time and we need to be mindful of what we do. Example I live in Manitoba . 13 days no cases bang today 5. Worst of all not concentrated in one area . So pretty certain those 5 will lead to more once contact tracing is done.
If we treat these cases as a wake up call and go back to being more aware of what we do we should go back down . If we get complacent like the US then we will be in another **** show in a couple of months like they are .

[glen moa]

Total deaths vs total deaths. Because some people may have died, Covid or not.

Let’s say last June 1000 people total died in June. Then this year 950 people total died in June. That would tell me the death toll is not brutal.

[jrowan]

Originally Posted by glen moa

Total deaths vs total deaths. Because some people may have died, Covid or not.

Let’s say last June 1000 people total died in June. Then this year 950 people total died in June. That would tell me the death toll is not brutal.

Doing a quick search I couldn't find monthly data for Florida or for 2019. But these numbers from the CDC put some perspective on things:

2017:
Heart Disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Unintentional injuries: 169,936
Chronic Lower Respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke: 146,383
Alzheimers: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564


2018:
Heart Disease: 655,381 (increase of about 1.22%)
Cancer: 599,274 (increase of about (0.028%)
Unintentional injuries: 167,127 (-1.65% decrease)
Chronic Lower Respiratory diseases: 159,486 (-0.45% decrease)
Stroke: 147,810 (0.97% increase)
Alzheimers: 122,019 (0.5% increase)
Diabetes: 84,946 (1.65% increase)

I've included the % change to show that these did not significantly change between the years. A change of 5% or more would be considered statistically significant but does not identify the cause of the increase/decrease. We would expect a large increase if there is a sudden change in demographics or people's general behaviour (e.g. most baby boomers hitting life expectancy which is about 70 years for people born in 1960 in the US).

COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) 2020 (after 4.5 months not 12): 138,247

Will this decrease other death numbers? I'm not sure. Probably for unintentional injuries (accidents) but the rest I honestly don't know and nobody else does. However, the numbers we are seeing for deaths likely don't entirely come from cancer or heart condition patients as they will likely self-select into the group that takes precautions like wearing a mask, self-isolating, and social distancing even when they do not have COVID. At this point, there are just too many deaths for anyone to suggest that these are just people that would have died anyway.

You have to keep in mind that these numbers are just the primary cause of death on somebody's death certificate. Can a person be diagnosed with cancer and then die of a sudden heart attack the next day? You bet. Would they have recovered from cancer? We don't know, but we don't argue that heart attacks are less important than cancer just because the person would have died of cancer anyway. Any death that is preventable through either medical, self, or community action is a death that did not have to happen.

Right now the only medical action we have to increase the odds of survival is a ventilator. The current anti-virals and steroids have only been shown to decrease the amount of time you spend on a ventilator and in the hospital, and do not increase the chance of survival. Right now baring having a machine breathe for you as a last resort so that you can beat COVID if you are going to die from COVID you will die. That is why focusing on limiting the spread is so important right now. We are literally trying to buy scientists and doctors enough time to come up with a successful treatment or vaccine.

Table from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databr...508.pdf#page=2

[nelsonob1]

Originally Posted by glen moa

Yes it is only part of the puzzle. But it’s a good start.
A person may think that if the deaths are lower this year then last Covid is being beat.
You have to have some way of measuring. It’s difficult. People aren’t going to agree. But do the best we can and maybe most will agree.

Canada said flatten the curve so we didn’t run out of ventilators. Looks like we weren’t even close to running out.

So we flattened the curve and didnt run out of ventilators, is that your point? It worked? We could do the opposite experiment, open everything up, not social distance,, allow everyone in and see how long the ventilators last. This course might also help the statistical spread on year on year fatality rate.

[MyAlberta]

Trump reporting to have redirected hospital data away from CDC. With the Fauci smear in motion, John Hopkins will the next target

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by glen moa

How ever it makes the most sense.
Like one heavy hit states total deaths in June 2020 vs June 2019.

A link to the total deaths per month, per state for 2018: (Click on the blue drop down box under "Display by year" and select 2018, then click on deaths per state.)

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/p...nal-tables.htm

Here are the "provisional" deaths per state thus far for 2020 (Table 2). Includes deaths from all causes, involving COVID, percentage of expected deaths etc.

"Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Counts by NCHS often track 1–2 weeks behind other data."

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[EZM]

Originally Posted by glen moa

Total deaths vs total deaths. Because some people may have died, Covid or not.

Let’s say last June 1000 people total died in June. Then this year 950 people total died in June. That would tell me the death toll is not brutal.

So, some guy climbs a clock tower and starts shooting and killing 800-1000 people per day.

But this year less people died overall from the same ailments that killed people last year - so, by your analogy, the gun shots are no big deal.

[Glion]

Originally Posted by EZM

So, some guy climbs a clock tower and starts shooting and killing 800-1000 people per day.

But this year less people died overall from the same ailments that killed people last year - so, by your analogy, the gun shots are no big deal.

Wow went over your head? No just if total death rates stay the same it CAN mean that people are dieing from covid instead of other things rather than it being an addition to total avg deaths. Just relax and stop trying to go to the extremes.
Most times you look at things level and use facts that support your argument but to go so extreme discredits some of what you say as it makes you appear less reasonable

[nelsonob1]

Originally Posted by Glion

Wow went over your head? No just if total death rates stay the same it CAN mean that people are dieing from covid instead of other things rather than it being an addition to total avg deaths. Just relax and stop trying to go to the extremes.
Most times you look at things level and use facts that support your argument but to go so extreme discredits some of what you say as it makes you appear less reasonable

If that was the point being made then you would have to assume that covid is selecting people who would be dying anyway. Seems a little far fetched and kind of distracting. It's like arguing covid would be killing way more people if they stopped dying of other things beforehand.

[roper1]

Originally Posted by Glion

Wow went over your head? No just if total death rates stay the same it CAN mean that people are dieing from covid instead of other things rather than it being an addition to total avg deaths. Just relax and stop trying to go to the extremes.
Most times you look at things level and use facts that support your argument but to go so extreme discredits some of what you say as it makes you appear less reasonable

I think you are on the exact right track.

CO-MORBIDITIES

Apologies for shouting but that is an absolute commonality. Very old, frail, obese, underlying conditions: heart, diabetes, cancer, obesity, etc.

What was the underlying death rate pre-Covid?

[Glion]

Originally Posted by nelsonob1

If that was the point being made then you would have to assume that covid is selecting people who would be dying anyway. Seems a little far fetched and kind of distracting. It's like arguing covid would be killing way more people if they stopped dying of other things beforehand.

Well it isn't disputed that the mortality rate for people with preexisting conditions is alot higher so it is selective in that sense. But that is the case with alot of different diseases etc such as RSV or what not, will naturally have a much more fatal outcome with those with lowered or compromised immune systems.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by Glion

Wow went over your head? No just if total death rates stay the same it CAN mean that people are dieing from covid instead of other things rather than it being an addition to total avg deaths. Just relax and stop trying to go to the extremes.
Most times you look at things level and use facts that support your argument but to go so extreme discredits some of what you say as it makes you appear less reasonable

That was precisely the intent.

Perhaps you missed the point and flew off the handle there.

Go ahead, run some numbers if you believe that's plausible. Post it up, let's see.

You seem to be in agreement with this unsupported statement, I am open to seeing the data.

[EZM]

:OK wait ........... a guy climbs a clock tower and starts shooting and killing people

BUT

It's in an area of the city where people die from gun shot wounds all the time ....

so it's not really a big deal ..... see ..... is that better?

LOL

[Glion]

Originally Posted by EZM

:OK wait ........... a guy climbs a clock tower and starts shooting and killing people

BUT

It's in an area of the city where people die from gun shot wounds all the time ....

so it's not really a big deal ..... see ..... is that better?

LOL

No but you are doing better at not shouting... good job bud lol
No one on here says they dont care about the people or the families of those who have had loved ones die from covid. Yet you keep rendering that as an argument and making ludicrous analogies trying to depict them as such just makes you lose face.
I actually admire chuck for standing up to you as you are the epitome of an online bully. Yes you present facts yet you try to belittle anyone who opposes your views or presents facts that discredits you.
If you just presented the facts in a straightforward and respectful manner it would be alot more appealing to agree with you.
Yet right now you do exactly what trump does and you abhor him.
Cheers

[EZM]

Originally Posted by Glion

No but you are doing better at not shouting... good job bud lol
No one on here says they dont care about the people or the families of those who have had loved ones die from covid. Yet you keep rendering that as an argument and making ludicrous analogies trying to depict them as such just makes you lose face.
I actually admire chuck for standing up to you as you are the epitome of an online bully. Yes you present facts yet you try to belittle anyone who opposes your views or presents facts that discredits you.
If you just presented the facts in a straightforward and respectful manner it would be alot more appealing to agree with you.
Yet right now you do exactly what trump does and you abhor him.
Cheers

That certainly isn't my intent. And, to be fair, It's usually someone insulting and/or purposefully provoking me that gets back the same level of disrespect I endure on here sometimes too and I tend to be less careful in how my response comes across.

Some people believe if people want to be that way, then they deserve it right back and they need to stop crying about it. If they are rude and disrespectful, pick a fight and then question why you end up getting one. I'm not immune to this train of thought sometimes and probably say things that come off wrong.

Anyways, I agree, it's not cool anyways to be a jackpot, and I will make a greater effort to exercise more patience with those who tirelessly argue nonsensical and repeat ridiculous unfounded dribble. All I'm trying to do is hold people accountable for their words. (I'm not singling anyone out here with my comments by the way).

I just believe people need to think about what they are saying and at least consider science and factual sources of data with greater weight and credibility versus the words of a compulsive liar, or trash rag article.

The other thing, is that in "real life" and not behind a keyboard here, I'm constantly engaged in humor, sarcastic ha ha type stuff with my friends and co-workers and quite often what I type is taken as more rude and not as I intended. I edit every post. Part of it is because English is my second language and my thoughts are "direct".

The other part is what we spoke about, being direct, sarcastic and funny doesn't work on the internet. You can catch direct, read sarcasm, but humor isn't always evident or implied correctly.

Having said that, I will work on it.

[Glion]

Originally Posted by EZM

That certainly isn't my intent. And, to be fair, It's usually someone insulting and/or purposefully provoking me that gets back the same level of disrespect I endure on here sometimes too and I tend to be less careful in how my response comes across.

Some people believe if people want to be that way, then they deserve it right back and they need to stop crying about it. If they are rude and disrespectful, pick a fight and then question why you end up getting one. I'm not immune to this train of thought sometimes and probably say things that come off wrong.

Anyways, I agree, it's not cool anyways to be a jackpot, and I will make a greater effort to exercise more patience with those who tirelessly argue nonsensical and repeat ridiculous unfounded dribble. All I'm trying to do is hold people accountable for their words. (I'm not singling anyone out here with my comments by the way).

I just believe people need to think about what they are saying and at least consider science and factual sources of data with greater weight and credibility versus the words of a compulsive liar, or trash rag article.

The other thing, is that in "real life" and not behind a keyboard here, I'm constantly engaged in humor, sarcastic ha ha type stuff with my friends and co-workers and quite often what I type is taken as more rude and not as I intended. I edit every post. part of it is, is because English is my second language and my thoughts are "direct". The other part is what we spoke about, being direct, sarcastic and funny doesn't work on the internet. You can catch direct, read sarcasm, but humor isn't always evident or implied correctly.

Having said that, I will work on it.

Standup answer, while I won't agree with you on some things I will respect you more after this

[raab]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Many don't realize that these patients aren't the run of the mill cardiac or cancer patients. EVERY SINGLE covid patient requires isolation. The amount of stress on each facility is magnified by that fact alone. Every covid patient displaces other sick patients by a factor of X. Give that some thought when you can't get get into a hospital. Many on here don't seem to care about the people getting sick but the massive amount of dollars attached to those patients should be something they can relate too.

Covid patients shouldn't even be at the hospital. They should be going to a completely separate field hospital which I've said from the beginning. They should only be transferred to ICU's after being intubated. If they truly wanted to control this thing, they wouldn't be sending people with a disease that kills sick people, into a building full of sick people.

[Osky]

Originally Posted by EZM

That rationale seems to make no sense as there were exactly zero deaths attributed to Covid last time this year.

The deaths are caused by Covid and would represent a significantly incremental increase over "other" deaths like car accident, heart attacks, old age, etc...

Not sure what the "argument" would be other than grasping at straws to try and feed into the agenda that this thing is "no big deal" and "we are doing a great job" or other dribble like that. I'm pretty sure the families of the 140,000 dead in the US of the 1,000,000 resolved cases would share my opinion just as much as the next 200,000 that will die from the already diagnosed and unresolved 2.4 million awaiting their fate.

If anyone even suggest this is not a concern, they are either ignorant, or are refusing to admit there's a real problem here and don't care about lying or misleading others and don't value their own reputation and credibility. Maybe the election and "being right" even if you are wrong is of greater value to the administration.

The statistics are clear. This is a problem in the US. A very big one and the death toll is forecasted, using current death rates published from the CDC to approach or exceed 350,000 in the next few months in the US alone.

Even if they do a total shut down, and stop everything TODAY, the death toll would be double what it is today in a few months.

The death toll will be doubled from today in two months from COVID??
I’ll take that bet. I’ll put up a hundred US that says your wrong. Loser pays a charity.

Osky

[MyAlberta]

Originally Posted by Osky

The death toll will be doubled from today in two months from COVID??
I’ll take that bet. I’ll put up a hundred US that says your wrong. Loser pays a charity.

Osky

I predict it will magically dissapear.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Osky

The death toll will be doubled from today in two months from COVID??
I’ll take that bet. I’ll put up a hundred US that says your wrong. Loser pays a charity.

Osky

Well done.

[Osky]

The bet is offered. One hundred US or the Canadian equivalent will be paid by the loser to a charity. I would like the charity to be one sponsored by this forum/helped by this forum.
To be clear:
EZ you claim above the US death toll will be double what it is today in 60 days. Give or take that would be September 15. I am betting your wrong. Loser pays the charity.
Accept?
Osky

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Osky

The bet is offered. One hundred US or the Canadian equivalent will be paid by the loser to a charity. I would like the charity to be one sponsored by this forum/helped by this forum.
To be clear:
EZ you claim above the US death toll will be double what it is today in 60 days. Give or take that would be September 15. I am betting your wrong. Loser pays the charity.
Accept?
Osky

I wouldn't take that bet. Trump is now having all the covid numbers going to him in Washington instead of the CDC. The actual numbers will never be known. What a dog and pony show down there.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by Osky

The bet is offered. One hundred US or the Canadian equivalent will be paid by the loser to a charity. I would like the charity to be one sponsored by this forum/helped by this forum.
To be clear:
EZ you claim above the US death toll will be double what it is today in 60 days. Give or take that would be September 15. I am betting your wrong. Loser pays the charity.
Accept?
Osky

I will take that bet. $100 USD to charity. That way we are not breaking any laws or rules.

I hope I loose. I really do. I have family down there.

To be clear Today is ~137,000

September 16 I am saying it will likely be 274,000 deaths in the US due to Covid.

I am not a weasel or loopholer or bet skipper - Do we agree?

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by EZM

I will take that bet. $100 USD to charity. That way we are not breaking any laws or rules.

I hope I loose. I really do. I have family down there.

To be clear Today is ~137,000

September 16 I am saying it will likely be 274,000 deaths in the US due to Covid.

I am not a weasel or loopholer or bet skipper - Do we agree?

I bet you'll be right, but I'm sure the numbers the US posts will now be as accurate as China or Russia's numbers are.