US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

61,848 positives in the US today

Deaths now up to 890

I am expecting 100,000 / day in the next two weeks.

Deaths to continue climbing.

2 days later that rate is up 10,000 to 71,787

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by chuck

So who do we believe?

As this is about the US, Anthony Fauci would be the obvious choice.

[Donkey Oatey]

The whole US reaction to covid reminds me of

[raab]

The US knows what every medical person knows, there's no miracle treatment on the way and no vaccine on the way. Too many strains and it'll be years not months before a vaccine is developed if ever. Opening up and being vigilante in our interactions is the only way we see normality anytime soon. Going to be funny in a month when the US is fully up and running while we're still hiding in our homes.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by raab

The US knows what every medical person knows, there's no miracle treatment on the way and no vaccine on the way. Too many strains and it'll be years not months before a vaccine is developed if ever. Opening up and being vigilante in our interactions is the only way we see normality anytime soon. Going to be funny in a month when the US is fully up and running while we're still hiding in our homes.

They just had 70,000 new infections in one day and you think they'll be "fully up and running" in one month?

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by raab

Going to be funny in a month when the US is fully up and running

To the rest of the post too, but especially this ^ part:

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Scott h

They just had 70,000 new infections in one day and you think they'll be "fully up and running" in one month?

The pleasure you find in this is pretty shocking really.

[hal53]

Originally Posted by chuck

The pleasure you find in this is pretty shocking really.

^^^ This...…….

[EZM]

Originally Posted by raab

The US knows what every medical person knows, there's no miracle treatment on the way and no vaccine on the way. Too many strains and it'll be years not months before a vaccine is developed if ever. Opening up and being vigilante in our interactions is the only way we see normality anytime soon. Going to be funny in a month when the US is fully up and running while we're still hiding in our homes.

You are probably 100% correct in saying we may be months and years away from an effective treatment and further away yet for a vaccine that will treat the current, and subsequent mutations of this virus.

Where I think you are being optimistic is "the US is fully up and running" may be problematic. Right now, the experts, including those on Trump's own administration are predicting 100,000 new infections in the US per day within a month.

If they do "keep it open" and let er' buck the hospitals will be overwhelmed and not only will Covid patients dies but all the other people who need emergency care and ICU will not have a bed or ventilator. It could be a disaster unlike the world has ever seen before.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope all the experts are wrong.

It was less than 90 days ago that the CDC and the Administration estimated a TOTAL death rate of 40,000-50,000 people due to Covid - and that was "total" (not "by the end of the year" or something like that).

BUT, hey, we (the administration) minimized it and we were smarter than the experts.

As a result 90 days later we have TRIPLE the deaths they predicted and this thing is FAR from done in the US.

There will almost certainly be hundreds of thousands of deaths. It could go to one million of they don't smarten up.

Selling "the economy" to someone who's family member has died because we ignored and minimized our reposes due to political and personal aspirations will give them no comfort.

edited 60 days to 90 days ***

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by EZM

You are probably 100% correct in saying we may be months and years away from an effective treatment and further away yet for a vaccine that will treat the current, and subsequent mutations of this virus.

Where I think you are being optimistic is "the US is fully up and running" may be problematic. Right now, the experts, including those on Trump's own administration are predicting 100,000 new infections in the US per day within a month.

If they do "keep it open" and let er' buck the hospitals will be overwhelmed and not only will Covid patients dies but all the other people who need emergency care and ICU will not have a bed or ventilator. It could be a disaster unlike the world has ever seen before.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope all the experts are wrong.

It was less than 60 days ago that the CDC and the Administration estimated a TOTAL death rate of 40,000-50,000 people due to Covid - and that was "total" (not "by the end of the year" or something like that).

BUT, hey, we (the administration) minimized it and we were smarter than the experts.

As a result 60 days later we have TRIPLE the deaths they predicted and this thing is FAR from done in the US.

There will almost certainly be hundreds of thousands of deaths. It could go to one million of they don't smarten up.

Selling "the economy" to someone who's family member has died because we ignored and minimized our reposes due to political and personal aspirations will give them no comfort.

Did they not predict a 2.2 million person death rate in the US when this thing started?

[EZM]

Originally Posted by chuck

Did they not predict a 2.2 million person death rate in the US when this thing started?

I don't know, post it up.

That would be very interesting to see since they have been revising up for as long as I can remember from 20,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000, then 100,000, etc... etc...

Are you thinking infections? or deaths? just the US or globally?

Post it up - let's have a look.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by EZM

I don't know, post it up.

That would be very interesting to see since they have been revising up for as long as I can remember from 20,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000, then 100,000, etc... etc...

Are you thinking infections? or deaths? just the US or globally?

Post it up - let's have a look.

Deaths in the USA. You look it up.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by Scott h

They just had 70,000 new infections in one day and you think they'll be "fully up and running" in one month?

US Population 331,000,000.
Number of people to get past the 'Rona for herd immunity 250,000,000
Number of people n the US that have tested positive 3,330,000
Number of people that still need to get it 246,670,000
At 70,000 new infections a day this will take 3524 days or 9.65 years.

I think they need to up their game if they are going to get out of this without bankrupting their country.

[raab]

Originally Posted by chuck

Did they not predict a 2.2 million person death rate in the US when this thing started?

At a 2% death rate we would have saw around 6M deaths. Facts matter, the original projections were wrong. There was/is multiple strains, the one that went through Europe and the Eastern seaboard was more severe then what we had/have on the west. As the virus mutates it will most likely become LESS SEVERE as it would be atypical for a virus to increase its severity due to a mutation. The facts say the death rate in the US is now lower then last year at this time. US is doing it right, opening things up. They won't be overwhelmed, they can establish field hospitals and now have all the equipment in place due to measures taken by the Task Force in March and April. You can check this graph out if you don't believe me that the media is once again blowing things out of proportion. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

[raab]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

US Population 331,000,000.
Number of people to get past the 'Rona for herd immunity 250,000,000
Number of people n the US that have tested positive 3,330,000
Number of people that still need to get it 246,670,000
At 70,000 new infections a day this will take 3524 days or 9.65 years.

I think they need to up their game if they are going to get out of this without bankrupting their country.

That's assuming non exponential growth, and that the current numbers are accurate. The fact is they're probably closer to 33,000,000 infections then 3,000,000.

[tri777]

Originally Posted by Scott h

As this is about the US, Anthony Fauci would be the obvious choice.

Faux'chi...S...M...H....

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by raab

At a 2% death rate we would have saw around 6M deaths. Facts matter, the original projections were wrong. There was/is multiple strains, the one that went through Europe and the Eastern seaboard was more severe then what we had/have on the west. As the virus mutates it will most likely become LESS SEVERE as it would be atypical for a virus to increase its severity due to a mutation. The facts say the death rate in the US is now lower then last year at this time. US is doing it right, opening things up. They won't be overwhelmed, they can establish field hospitals and now have all the equipment in place due to measures taken by the Task Force in March and April. You can check this graph out if you don't believe me that the media is once again blowing things out of proportion. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

I agree.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by raab

That's assuming non exponential growth, and that the current numbers are accurate. The fact is they're probably closer to 33,000,000 infections then 3,000,000.

Again, I agree.

[nelsonob1]

Originally Posted by raab

The US knows what every medical person knows, there's no miracle treatment on the way and no vaccine on the way. Too many strains and it'll be years not months before a vaccine is developed if ever. Opening up and being vigilante in our interactions is the only way we see normality anytime soon. Going to be funny in a month when the US is fully up and running while we're still hiding in our homes.

No one's going to be fully open if the hospitals are full and people are dying in the carpark. No one has seen yet what it will mean to run out of hospital capacity but I'd bet it won't look pretty to a bunch of middle class Americans. And if or when it happens what the governor says won't matter. People's natural instincts to protect themselves and their families will dictate what is open and what is closed.

We need our government and community leaders to start making plans on keeping as much of the economy open whilst protecting the most vulnerable. We need a plan that is as much economic as well as health centric and we need to take control out of the hands of health officials and have a more balanced approach.

[Hadji Ramjet]

The most recent data from Johns Hopkins shows a minor increase in US daily deaths from July 6, followed by a decrease. Deaths since June 19 are lower than at any time since April 1. The daily death rate since end-June has been lower than at any time since Mar 16, which is far back as I have for data. The current positive test rate is lower than since May 8, and has declined for the past 4 days.

CDC weekly data shows a consistently declining number of deaths since April 18.

What exactly are we supposed to be concerned about, again?

Dr Birx yesterday (iirc) accused the CDC of inflating the number of US deaths by 25%.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by Hadji Ramjet

The most recent data from Johns Hopkins shows a minor increase in US daily deaths from July 6, followed by a decrease. Deaths since June 19 are lower than at any time since April 1. The daily death rate since end-June has been lower than at any time since Mar 16, which is far back as I have for data. The current positive test rate is lower than since May 8, and has declined for the past 4 days.

CDC weekly data shows a consistently declining number of deaths since April 18.

What exactly are we supposed to be concerned about, again?

Dr Birx yesterday (iirc) accused the CDC of inflating the number of US deaths by 25%.

True, some numbers were coming down and leveling off, but that was from when there was more restrictive measures in place and less infectious spread in the general population. A resolution of what happened (cases) weeks and weeks ago.

Unfortunately, what you need to consider is the daily infection rates (and the increases today are almost double the previous run rates) and WILL lag behind in time. So you are not even seeing the "resolution" to these latest infections.

In layman's terms - A person that gets diagnosed positive doesn't die the next day. It takes weeks in most cases.

I would think every single qualified expert on the planet would agree the death rate would show a lagging correlation post infection.

What people who are making an argument similar to yours may be seeing is a wave maybe - but it's absolutely not going away. It's likely to get far worse in the next month or so.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by raab

At a 2% death rate we would have saw around 6M deaths. Facts matter, the original projections were wrong. There was/is multiple strains, the one that went through Europe and the Eastern seaboard was more severe then what we had/have on the west. As the virus mutates it will most likely become LESS SEVERE as it would be atypical for a virus to increase its severity due to a mutation. The facts say the death rate in the US is now lower then last year at this time. US is doing it right, opening things up. They won't be overwhelmed, they can establish field hospitals and now have all the equipment in place due to measures taken by the Task Force in March and April. You can check this graph out if you don't believe me that the media is once again blowing things out of proportion. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

You are correct that it's generally agreed as a virus mutates it usually gets less deadly. That's good news. I saw somewhere that they believe we are on revision 3-4 on this virus already which was surprising.

Also the more experience doctors have treating it, the more people that will survive as we can apply different and more effective drugs or treatments. That's good too.

I hope you are right about things "not being overwhelmed" ..... I see this as a potential area of concern. Texas reported very high capacity rates in their ICU beds - so we better start setting up more capacity fast.

I don't think we out of the woods yet here - it's going to get far worse based on daily infections rates right now as infections resolve some weeks and weeks later.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by raab

That's assuming non exponential growth, and that the current numbers are accurate. The fact is they're probably closer to 33,000,000 infections then 3,000,000.

Do you have a source of data for that? (not a news article but a study from a credible source) - if not never mind.

I did see a couple news articles on this too but there really wasn't any data there and nothing actually cited .... just curious.

That would be interesting to see.

Here's the first one that popped up - but nothing cited other than a statement form what should be a very credible source but nothing to back it up.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...be-10-n1232134

[EZM]

Originally Posted by chuck

Deaths in the USA. You look it up.

Why would I look up to prove something you said?

Does that make sense to you?

You said it. Let's see it.

[270person]

Originally Posted by Hadji Ramjet

The most recent data from Johns Hopkins shows a minor increase in US daily deaths from July 6, followed by a decrease. Deaths since June 19 are lower than at any time since April 1. The daily death rate since end-June has been lower than at any time since Mar 16, which is far back as I have for data. The current positive test rate is lower than since May 8, and has declined for the past 4 days.

CDC weekly data shows a consistently declining number of deaths since April 18.

What exactly are we supposed to be concerned about, again?

Dr Birx yesterday (iirc) accused the CDC of inflating the number of US deaths by 25%.

You crack me up. Seriously.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/florida-g...eaths-one-week

Florida set a weekly record of nearly 500 coronavirus-related deaths, a roughly 16 percent increase from the last highest weekly mortality rate reported in May.

Nothing to see here folks. We're on the downswing. Move along.

[270person]

Originally Posted by EZM

Why would I look up to prove something you said?

Does that make sense to you?

You said it. Let's see it.

Technology is tough for some folks and typing Google, Copy, Paste is hard work. Far easier to just verbalize.

[HalfBreed]

Having trained extensively with our southern counterparts, I wouldn't be surprised if they are still licking things that look tasty.

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by HalfBreed

Having trained extensively with our southern counterparts, I wouldn't be surprised if they are still licking things that look tasty.

I'd be more concerned about a guy that didn't...

[HalfBreed]

Originally Posted by MountainTi

I'd be more concerned about a guy that didn't...

Shiny anything is 'tasty', and the people down south aren't all male.

[Grizzly Adams]

At some point we may just have to say Damn the Torpedoes and get on with our lives or face the collapse of our society, which would be infinitely worse. This virus isn't going to go away and we may just have to accept it's existence, much like influenza.

Grizz