410 Archery Sheep Draw

[wylecoyote]

Just was looking at the stats for this. Is it another one of the impossible draws to get now if you are down around the Priority 3 area? Thanks in advance.

[SageValleyOutdoors]

Here, check this site out for more info.

https://www.albertarelm.com/cust.dra...heep19.page#30

[elkslayer132]

Sure glad i am a 21 priority points. I will take it when my partner gets a couple more points built up so we can go together.

[Ice Fishing Maniac]

I am 17 for Priority. Was tempted for this season as my knee feels better. Just the rest of my body not in sheep shape. Maybe will consider next year. I started upping priority in a new zone last year and this draw application season.

[birdy237]

The draw in 410 is only for November. You can use a general tag for Sept-Oct.

I stopped putting in draws here when it became archery only.

[walking buffalo]

Originally Posted by wylecoyote

Just was looking at the stats for this. Is it another one of the impossible draws to get now if you are down around the Priority 3 area? Thanks in advance.

To try and answer your question.....

If not 410, assuming you would be starting at 0 for the other draws.

All of the other draws except for 438 lottery draws are long past being possible for new applicants to ever draw excepting the unknown aspects of application attrition through old age and death or unanticipated huge increases in tags available.

410 is behaving uniquely within the draw system in that most applicants are not drawing the tag when they can. Less than 20% of applicants with enough priority are choosing to draw.

At a P3, if this trend continues, you could draw the 410 tag in 6-100 years.


Cue Lloyd. Yes, there is a chance.

[Acesneights]

I would say One thing about 410 is that it is tough with low success. So if you sheep hunt now and you want a challenge it is a great tag. In saying that it is far from a gimme. Most years there’s 30 draw tags and lucky if 5 get filled. If you are a first time or not serious sheep hunter I would suggest 438 random draw instead. All depends what your looking for in a hunt. But that’s just my opinion.

[WhiteTailAB]

Okay someone explain to me like I am 5 about these unobtainable draws.

For example if a tag is at 10P and I have 3, why won't i draw it in 7 or 8 years?????

[Andrew_Arsenault]

Because in 7 or 8 years they will still be drawing from the group of people that are 10’s now. It’s like me with turkey, I am an 11 and am now going to be in the pool of people that they are drawing from. That means I will get my turkey tag somewhere between next year......and 25 years from now. So some one who is a ten this year will get theirs 25 years from now to 50 years from now.
With your sheep tag, assuming you entered the draw this year at a 3, there are 3532 people including those that 999’d ahead of you in the line up for 25 tags a year. Statistically if you were the last person to get drawn in your pool, that is 142 years.

[WhiteTailAB]

Edit, I see your edit. Makes more sense now

[Andrew_Arsenault]

Here’s the 999 list. There are another 26 that you can’t see, the list goes up to p23.

[WhiteTailAB]

Gonna have to hope some people croak lmao

[Andrew_Arsenault]

If it makes you feel any better, I’m a 6.....so there’s at least a chance that one out of the two of us will get the tag before the age of 150. Lol

[wylecoyote]

Yah darn, I don't know why I didn't investigate more when I started applying. Saw a few guys get the draw in the last few years here and figured it was attainable. Oh well guess it's back to the 438 lottery next year, and keep going after them in with the general tag!

[camo]

Does anybody know of an outfitter that guides residents for this hunt?

[KyleSS]

Originally Posted by camo

Does anybody know of an outfitter that guides residents for this hunt?

Yes the do, give Simpsons, Guinn's, or Chad Lenz a call

[heretohunt]

6 Years ago there were 50 tags for residents and five tags for nonresidents now it’s only three tags for residents and still five tags for nonresidents.
Due to the way the outfitters set up you can be certain that they have a much higher success rate than the Alberta residents.

[Acesneights]

Originally Posted by heretohunt

6 Years ago there were 50 tags for residents and five tags for nonresidents now it’s only three tags for residents and still five tags for nonresidents.
Due to the way the outfitters set up you can be certain that they have a much higher success rate than the Alberta residents.

30 tags last year not three and 25 this year for residents

[marky_mark]

Originally Posted by heretohunt

6 Years ago there were 50 tags for residents and five tags for nonresidents now it’s only three tags for residents and still five tags for nonresidents.
Due to the way the outfitters set up you can be certain that they have a much higher success rate than the Alberta residents.

So are those 5 allocations or are those 5 licenses for non resident Canadians that for some reason, are able to enter this draw also

[walking buffalo]

Originally Posted by Acesneights

30 tags last year not three and 25 this year for residents

This needs to be addressed.

Resident licences are reduced by 50% while outfitters maintain 100% of their licences.

Now, allocations are supposed to be determined by Allowable Harvest rates.
Outfitter allocations for Trophy sheep are allowed up to 20% of the Allowable harvest.

If Residents have had their available licences reduced by 50% for conservation reasons (sheep populations in 410 have dropped over the last decade), where does the Outfitter harvest fit into the allocation equation?

I suspect APOS and the allocation holders in 410 cringe at the thought of the information becoming public knowledge.

[marky_mark]

Originally Posted by walking buffalo

This needs to be addressed.

Resident licences are reduced by 50% while outfitters maintain 100% of their licences.

Now, allocations are supposed to be determined by Allowable Harvest rates.
Outfitter allocations for Trophy sheep are allowed up to 20% of the Allowable harvest.

If Residents have had their available licences reduced by 50% for conservation reasons (sheep populations in 410 have dropped over the last decade), where does the Outfitter harvest fit into the allocation equation?

I suspect APOS and the allocation holders in 410 cringe at the thought of the information becoming public knowledge.

How would you determine which outfitter loses their allocation
And whos going to pay for that?
8 bighorn allocations are going for $1.2m right now
In a less desirable zone

[OL_JR]

Originally Posted by marky_mark

How would you determine which outfitter loses their allocation
And whos going to pay for that?
8 bighorn allocations are going for $1.2m right now
In a less desirable zone

Who the heck cares? I'm not against outfitting at all but if the resident harvest opportunity is being hacked, it should be a no brainer that the outfitter opportunity be reduced as well.

[RZR]

Originally Posted by walking buffalo

At a P3, if this trend continues, you could draw the 410 tag in 6-100 years.

The government don’t care they’re still making money off the draws applications.

[marky_mark]

Originally Posted by OL_JR

Who the heck cares? I'm not against outfitting at all but if the resident harvest opportunity is being hacked, it should be a no brainer that the outfitter opportunity be reduced as well.

I’d like to know why the population is dropping?
Is it predation? Higher rates of special person harvesting, etc
At least it’s not movi