Fifty dollar Oil here to Stay

[ak-71]

Originally Posted by Olthreelegs

and here we have more of this misinformation that you speak of. thanks for pointing that out boss. even the slightest amount of research would indicate that what you have just stated is pie in the sky dreaming!! fact is there is a glut because the old narrative of these oil supplies drying up is a farce. oil reserves around the world are basically endless.

1. How much oil we have strictly depends on how much we are willing to pay and work for it. As you said "even the slightest amount of research would indicate that"
2. You do know that oil doesn't just come from the pipe? I mean you do realize that average conventional oilfield lifespan is limited, I am not talking about unicorn fields, but a normal workhorse type? It's probably about 10-30 years or so, before it becomes uneconomical to produce. At least for the ones in Russia. To maintain the supply you have to find and develop new fields and it takes a lot of activity before it starts to produce, this activity is essentially halted right now. Takes time and money from when some guy starts cleaning lines for seismic to the moment real production begins.

The other ways is either to make shale oil a lot more productive (and profitable with just drill and frac more approach) or somehow increase production on the old "unicorn" fields to compensate for declining production if nothing changed. These solutions look questionable to me, considering most people think global demand for oil will continue to rise for the next 20-30 years even with all affection for wind and solar. I mean not impossible solutions, just questionable.

Another possibility is a revolutionary breakthrough in batteries for wind or solar storage or some other form of energy generation completely, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[58thecat]

Yup, oil is at a level where milking unicorns is no longer a reality, now I see how stupid things where I like the calmness.

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

Yup, oil is at a level where milking unicorns is no longer a reality, now I see how stupid things where I like the calmness.

Looks like the whole world, pretty much, is leaving the oil sands train, the Chinese bring the latest.

http://edmontonjournal.com/storyline...st-in-oilsands

Who will be proved right, the rest of the world, or a "few" die hard Albertans??



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[I_forget]

More than just a few American companies in Alberta. A strong American economy is good for Canada. I'd rather have Americans companies here than overseas companies. Selling our oil is a different story, more customers the better.

[wellpastcold]

Originally Posted by JustMe

The need for petroleum products won't end tomorrow, but it's hey-day has probably come and gone and we'll not likely see a great boom again. Alberta needs to start a plan today for the diverse industry it will need in the near future. Even the Saudi's see the writing on the wall and what the future holds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.59bc7f393f28


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IMHO there is no one alive today that will see the demise of the Oil industry. Anyone who talks like that is an Eco tard. Show me some solar produced plastic and I will change my mind. It is incredible how many things we take for granted are products of the oil industry. Even if Tesla revolutionized the auto industry, where is the plastic coming from in all the interiors?

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by wellpastcold

IMHO there is no one alive today that will see the demise of the Oil industry. Anyone who talks like that is an Eco tard. Show me some solar produced plastic and I will change my mind. It is incredible how many things we take for granted are products of the oil industry. Even if Tesla revolutionized the auto industry, where is the plastic coming from in all the interiors?

Without a doubt, petroleum products will be around for a long while. And it seems that while no one can argue that fact, most seem to agree the day of the ridiculously high priced crude is gone, at least for the foreseeable future. The question then remains, can the Alberta oil sands remain viable at a sustained price of $50 a bbl? Are workers willing to take substantial wage cuts etc to ensure it's viability?


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[dmcbride]

Originally Posted by JustMe

Looks like the whole world, pretty much, is leaving the oil sands train, the Chinese bring the latest.

http://edmontonjournal.com/storyline...st-in-oilsands

Who will be proved right, the rest of the world, or a "few" die hard Albertans??



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To be fair, one could blame a lot of that on the current governments policies. (oil sands cap, carbon tax, corporate tax hike ect.)

[dmcbride]

Originally Posted by wellpastcold

IMHO there is no one alive today that will see the demise of the Oil industry. Anyone who talks like that is an Eco tard. Show me some solar produced plastic and I will change my mind. It is incredible how many things we take for granted are products of the oil industry. Even if Tesla revolutionized the auto industry, where is the plastic coming from in all the interiors?

I agree and the demand for oil is still growing, until that changes oil isn't going anywhere soon.

[I_forget]

Originally Posted by JustMe

Without a doubt, petroleum products will be around for a long while. And it seems that while no one can argue that fact, most seem to agree the day of the ridiculously high priced crude is gone, at least for the foreseeable future. The question then remains, can the Alberta oil sands remain viable at a sustained price of $50 a bbl? Are workers willing to take substantial wage cuts etc to ensure it's viability?


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The big oilsands companies are already making profits, so in the future yes they will still be profitable. Keep in mind they have major new
Construction projects on the go that are being financed. Once they are done it's just maintenance and shutdown costs.

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by dmcbride

I agree and the demand for oil is still growing, until that changes oil isn't going anywhere soon.

True, but the greatest immediate use will come from the cheapest supplier. Right now that's the Middle East. We have to be more competitive, that means cutting all overhead costs. Are we willing to do that, even if it means a change in lifestyle?


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[hal53]

Originally Posted by JustMe

True, but the greatest immediate use will come from the cheapest supplier. Right now that's the Middle East. We have to be more competitive, that means cutting all overhead costs. Are we willing to do that, even if it means a change in lifestyle?


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How much per BBl. are the Saudis charging for that oil that's coming into eastern Canada every day?

[HalfBreed]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

I think you misunderstood my point. I agree that the current herd is against O&G and is pro renewables...invest accordingly. Buying into a depressed market (O&G) with lots of negative sentiment swirling around is hard to do but generally a winning strategy if one wants better than average returns.

Very well put.

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by hal53

How much per BBl. are the Saudis charging for that oil that's coming into eastern Canada every day?

I don't know, and I'm pretty sure irvine's won't tell me what kind of deal/agreement they have with Middle East suppliers. The fact of the matter is we have to beat their price because of higher refining costs, although that is partially reflected in WEstern Crude prices.


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[nick0danger]

Originally Posted by JustMe

Without a doubt, petroleum products will be around for a long while. And it seems that while no one can argue that fact, most seem to agree the day of the ridiculously high priced crude is gone, at least for the foreseeable future. The question then remains, can the Alberta oil sands remain viable at a sustained price of $50 a bbl? Are workers willing to take substantial wage cuts etc to ensure it's viability?


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Wage cuts are happening, demand for jobs increase, as the demand for labor goes down, people will work for less. When people work for less the price to produce comes down.

[ganderblaster]

Originally Posted by JustMe

Looks like the whole world, pretty much, is leaving the oil sands train, the Chinese bring the latest.

http://edmontonjournal.com/storyline...st-in-oilsands

Who will be proved right, the rest of the world, or a "few" die hard Albertans??



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The only reason they are leaving the oil sands train is because the New government makes it hard to do business here. Huskies words not mine. They decided off shore drilling close to home was a much more stable way to make a buck after all the stunts Our new leader pulled. I believe it was Whitecap Resources that bought their play here.

[ganderblaster]

Originally Posted by JustMe

True, but the greatest immediate use will come from the cheapest supplier. Right now that's the Middle East. We have to be more competitive, that means cutting all overhead costs. Are we willing to do that, even if it means a change in lifestyle?


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You mean a change in lifestyle for government employees in order to lower corporate tax rates? If so, yes!!!

[bdub]

When you are dealing with a cartel that can play a big role in the price oil, volatility among other producers in the world, etc, the normal laws of supply and demand do not apply at most times in this market. Short term, the IPO of a portion of Saudi Aramco is going to have the Saudis wanting the price of oil higher until thats a done deal I believe. They have stated that they would like to see oil at $60 previously so I think they will be cutting until they get it, and oil may possibly overshoot to the upside. Long term I think it is anybodies guess. The marginal cost of oil varies so much world wide, the middle east around $10, US around $25, Canadian oil around $35, the lowest cost producers will fare the best long term. Technology will always find us more recoverable oil, only the price of getting it out of the ground will change I believe.

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by ganderblaster

You mean a change in lifestyle for government employees in order to lower corporate tax rates? If so, yes!!!

I would suggest that if you are jealous of the government employees you join them. It would seem they made their choice of careers, while you made yours. As a point of interest which government employees do you believe are overpaid?


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[Newview01]

Originally Posted by JustMe

I would suggest that if you are jealous of the government employees you join them. It would seem they made their choice of careers, while you made yours. As a point of interest which government employees do you believe are overpaid?


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It is more a case of the government being forced to overpay under qualified employees, a decision driven by unions who are largely funded by the taxpayer. Don't think I am only holding the current government responsible either, every majority government has had the opportunity to abolish unions. I cannot imagine how much lower our taxes would be if we weren't paying for 100s of thousands of government pensions, already proven to be unsustainable.

[JustMe]

Originally Posted by Newview01

It is more a case of the government being forced to overpay under qualified employees, a decision driven by unions who are largely funded by the taxpayer. Don't think I am only holding the current government responsible either, every majority government has had the opportunity to abolish unions. I cannot imagine how much lower our taxes would be if we weren't paying for 100s of thousands of government pensions, already proven to be unsustainable.

I agree, the pensions are unsustainable. The government's have used the contributions for general revenue and they, the governments, have been told for decades that the population is aging and to start repaying the theft of contributions. They chose not to and now successive governments are going to be faced with deficits to make up the shortfalls of the previous (read Conservative) government. The government, whether we like it or not has a contract with their employees. And guess who's going to get stuck with the bill? Yup, you and I because the preceding governments failed to uphold their obligations.


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[Newview01]

Originally Posted by JustMe

I agree, the pensions are unsustainable. The government's have used the contributions for general revenue and they, the governments, have been told for decades that the population is aging and to start repaying the theft of contributions. They chose not to and now successive governments are going to be faced with deficits to make up the shortfalls of the previous (read Conservative) government. The government, whether we like it or not has a contract with their employees. And guess who's going to get stuck with the bill? Yup, you and I because the preceding governments failed to uphold their obligations.


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That's right.

Now if only one of these elections we could see an attempt at political responsibility. Or at the very least, a government willing to slash the public sector workforce.

[gunluvr]

Canadian oil industry workers (and associated trades) are experiencing wage cuts (as they should if the industry is to compete worldwide). $50- $60 oil can still provide a decent living for most if greed doesn't drive the boat. Hard work for an honest day's pay is what built Alberta and will carry the economy if our Socialist government doesn't give it all back to the dregs. You morons that voted NDP need to realize that the "free money" you are expecting has to come from somewhere. It will come from coal mines and power plants, refineries and factories, not windmills and magic green rainbows.

[ESOXangler]

Originally Posted by Newview01

That's right.

Now if only one of these elections we could see an attempt at political responsibility. Or at the very least, a government willing to slash the public sector workforce.

I'm curious to which jobs should be cut? Nurses? Doctors? The lady at the passport office? Social workers? Aish staff? Just curious who the "overpaid" workers are?

[Fur]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

I'm curious to which jobs should be cut? Nurses? Doctors? The lady at the passport office? Social workers? Aish staff? Just curious who the "overpaid" workers are?

Great point.

I would look more to efficiency/productivity rather than wage cuts.

Do we need all these jobs in the public sector? Like admin assistants assistant? come on.

[ronkaren]

Originally Posted by Sleddawg

As in well site supervisors or in house downtown consultants?

well site consultants.

[Newview01]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

I'm curious to which jobs should be cut? Nurses? Doctors? The lady at the passport office? Social workers? Aish staff? Just curious who the "overpaid" workers are?

Overpaid workers are those who are underproducing and can't be fired because they are part of a union. And there are a lot more than you would think.

Walk through any government institution.

[ESOXangler]

Originally Posted by Fur

Great point.

I would look more to efficiency/productivity rather than wage cuts.

Do we need all these jobs in the public sector? Like admin assistants assistant? come on.

Most of the jobs I listed deserve raises. Especially social workers and nurses. Can you confirm that an assistants assistant exists, or is this just an idea removed from ones ass? The dead weight in the system is a few levels up from the bottom. But it's easier to focus on the front line staff because that's all the ignorant opinionist sees.

My point is the waste comes from the high ups, whether it's oil field or public service. But those higher ups sure play us like chess pieces. And most of us are dumb enough to fall for it.

[ESOXangler]

Originally Posted by Newview01

Overpaid workers are those who are underproducing and can't be fired because they are part of a union. And there are a lot more than you would think.

Walk through any government institution.

Ive worked non union basically my whole career and I see plenty of that dead weight on this side too. With HR and company policies it's hard to remove people regardless of whether there's a union or not. A lazy employee is a direct result of a bad manager.

[Newview01]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

Most of the jobs I listed deserve raises. Especially social workers and nurses. Can you confirm that an assistants assistant exists, or is this just an idea removed from ones ass? The dead weight in the system is a few levels up from the bottom. But it's easier to focus on the front line staff because that's all the ignorant opinionist sees.

My point is the waste comes from the high ups, whether it's oil field or public service. But those higher ups sure play us like chess pieces. And most of us are dumb enough to fall for it.

There is a lot of waste higher up, but there are also front line workers who need the boot. Maybe not specifically nurses, but nurses are a small percentage of "front line" workers.

I think the first major tax savings the government should implement is defunding the Catholic school system. I cannot believe they have the nerve to question private religion based schools while publicly funding one specific religion.

[Newview01]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

Ive worked non union basically my whole career and I see plenty of that dead weight on this side too. With HR and company policies it's hard to remove people regardless of whether there's a union or not. A lazy employee is a direct result of a bad manager.

I agree, but as you said "HR and company policy". Both can be changed. The fact is that underperforming workers should get dealt with accordingly, private or public.