US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by chuck

Ok, that’s fine. What are those measures and how do you propose to enforce them?

they already came down and for the most part since this pandemic most have been following the directions....where have you been since March?

we are going through phases now....slowly....

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by 270person

Herd immunity for Covid-19 ruled out as a possibility by the experts. We don't develop antibodies for this thing. Maybe a couple of generations down the line your offsprings offspring might be born with something to fight it.

People still get colds over and over. Thats a corona virus. No herd immunity. Same with the flu. Mutations and variations so we're always one step behind.

If this is in fact the truth, you have to ask yourself, do you hide for the rest of your life or do you live an enjoyable life and accept the consequences?


I know what I’m going to do.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

they already came down and for the most part since this pandemic most have been following the directions....where have you been since March?

we are going through phases now....slowly....

So what is the issue then?

[WildBillG]

The way a lot of you are talking we will never be out of lock down. I don't know about you but I am not ok with that. Especially with todays news that they the experts figure the virus was here in Dec. Why did it not spread like wild fire then makes you wonder. Yes there is a virus but I don't want these experts telling me my every move. There is more going on here people wake up Bergerboy has.

[WildBillG]

One more thing I listened to the experts and had a pacreass transplant. That gave me a virus that almost took me out and that was after the complications of the transplant had me flat lined. So I think I will pass on to much expert advice.

[bessiedog]

Oh man....

Bill..... you make me sad that we’re out of popcorn tonight.

But I still have circus music.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by WildBillG

The way a lot of you are talking we will never be out of lock down. I don't know about you but I am not ok with that. Especially with todays news that they the experts figure the virus was here in Dec. Why did it not spread like wild fire then makes you wonder. Yes there is a virus but I don't want these experts telling me my every move. There is more going on here people wake up Bergerboy has.

It did. There are several people in my community that believe it went through here in January and February.

[nelsonob1]

Originally Posted by chuck

I’ve told you now three times that I don’t have a line. I don’t know how you can nor control it.

You should reread your own posts. The first response you asked me which line you should draw. The next two you asked where my line was drawn. You remind me of a girl friend I had at college. She loved to eat and dance, but I never did get laid.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by nelsonob1

You should reread your own posts. The first response you asked me which line you should draw. The next two you asked where my line was drawn. You remind me of a girl friend I had at college. She loved to eat and dance, but I never did get laid.

That’s weird, all my girlfriend ever wanted to do was roll in the sack, it was just a quick trip to 7-11 then back to bed. You must have been doing something wrong

[bessiedog]

She liked slurpees THAT much...?

[WayneChristie]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

She liked slurpees THAT much...?

mine prefered to stay home for a big gulp

[nelsonob1]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

She liked slurpees THAT much...?

That was a good one. LOL

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

She liked slurpees THAT much...?

Needed to rehydrate and the sugars for more energy

[WildBillG]

Bessiedog I don't know how old you are. But I bet you will be one of the ones decades from now sitting in your house with your mask and rubber gloves on waiting for the second wave. That my friend is sad we will ship you some popcorn.

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

3300 dead in the first quarter of the pandemic.

Thats 3300 spouses without their partner.

3300 funerals that likely wont be held.

3300 families in mourning, from 1 disease, in 1 state.


How many do you want to see before you put batteries in your calculator?

Perspective on that, from today's CDC data for 2020:
Florida 2930 COVID deaths.
Deaths from all causes 91,429.
Deaths involving pneumonia, with or without COVID, excluding influenza 7028.

3.2% of the 2020 deaths in Florida have been from COVID. Best close the entire State forever. Just to be sure.

[bessiedog]

Heh!

Atta boy Kurt! I figured it was sumpin like that.

Yea Wild Billly.... you don’t know me, but a lot of guys on here do, and from the actual outdoor stuff and pics I post.... they all know you are clueless.

From your single issue posting....... we can very much reduce your surroundings (basement)
.... does mom charge rent?

‘Don’t believe them experts.....’ indeed.....

‘Trust my YouTube algorithm’ for the truth....... indeed.

Outdoors is not upstairs my friend.

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Their current mortality rate is 3%, 18% end up in ER. With 5500 new infections a day currently, they appear to be just a head of a pretty big wave......

https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...1c643c195314e/

Suggest you review the difference between "testing positive" and "being infected."
Johns Hopkins has good information about that.

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by 270person

That locked down incoming flights immediately and was weeks ahead of everyone else with their response.

FFS, I flew into Aukland in late May.

[Jigsalot]

Originally Posted by Hadji Ramjet

Suggest you review the difference between "testing positive" and "being infected."
Johns Hopkins has good information about that.

Ok I’ll bite. If you test positive you are infected. Isn’t that obvious or you trying to tell us something different

[EZM]

Originally Posted by chuck

So the backyard BBQ scenario is pretty far fetched looking at those numbers.

So, you are up to bat a third time.

First, you claim some grossly inaccurate low morality number from the CDC (a quarter of one percent) and - you are proven wrong from the information, ironically, from the CDC website which shows it at 4.9% - 20 times higher than you claimed in your post on this thread. That was strike one. No big deal, maybe you had bad info.

Next, you take those numbers, and either are trying to mislead us, or don't understand them, and claim the mortality rate is under 1% - when the data shows 4.9% - in fairness to you, the number was expressed in numeric and decimal format, and not at a straight percentage - so I understand that some people may have misinterpreted it, which is cool, nevertheless - that was strike 2. Let's move along - no big deal.

So we are up to bat a third time, and want to comment on one of my posts ......... so, let me get this straight, now, when discussing Canada's mortality rate, from the Government's own website, which is ~8.4%, (or 1 death in 12 infections) you are challenging the simple mathematical equation, that, statistically, if 12 people who contract Covid at a BBQ, that one of them won't die?

That would have been strike three for you. It's math. The government's website is reporting those numbers and that ratio.

Seriously Chuck, please just try and consider what I'm trying to show you. Just facts, no commentary on this topic.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Needed to rehydrate and the sugars for more energy

First, you shoot bigger deer than most of the rest of us, then, you tell us all you have to do is buy her a Slurpee to get some more love?

Meanwhile the rest of us men are buying gifts, taking them out to dinner, remember birthdays and aniversaries, and we have talk nice and listen with interest ...... (uggg) and all you are doing is dropping a buck or two on a slurpee???

I'm not sure If I should hate you or make you my hero !!!!!!!

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by EZM

So, you are up to bat a third time.

First, you claim some grossly inaccurate low morality number from the CDC (a quarter of one percent) and - you are proven wrong from the information, ironically, from the CDC website which shows it at 4.9% - 20 times higher than you claimed in your post on this thread. That was strike one. No big deal, maybe you had bad info.

Next, you take those numbers, and either are trying to mislead us, or don't understand them, and claim the mortality rate is under 1% - when the data shows 4.9% - in fairness to you, the number was expressed in numeric and decimal format, and not at a straight percentage - so I understand that some people may have misinterpreted it, which is cool, nevertheless - that was strike 2. Let's move along - no big deal.

So we are up to bat a third time, and want to comment on one of my posts ......... so, let me get this straight, now, when discussing Canada's mortality rate, from the Government's own website, which is ~8.4%, (or 1 death in 12 infections) you are challenging the simple mathematical equation, that, statistically, if 12 people who contract Covid at a BBQ, that one of them won't die?

That would have been strike three for you. It's math. The government's website is reporting those numbers and that ratio.

Seriously Chuck, please just try and consider what I'm trying to show you. Just facts, no commentary on this topic.

What part of these numbers do you not understand? What part. Your example is disingenuous and quite frankly misleading. It takes no demographic, no underlying conditions, none of it into consideration. And none of it takes into account antibody testing. It is a lie designed to promote an agenda.

“So far, 154 people in the province have died from the illness.

The age breakdown of those who have died is:

80 years or older, 108 deaths.
70-79 years, 31 deaths.
60-69 years, 10 deaths.
50-59 years, two deaths.
40-49 years, one death.
30-39 years, one death.
20-29, one death”

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by 270person

Trump dismantled the U.S. national pandemic team, a team of experts, in 2017-2018. Oh snap!

Not only is he the smartest man on the planet but he's a visionary as well.

Have no fear tho. Donnie and Mikey are on it. What could go wrong with two anti-science neandrathals steering the ship,?

No, actually he didn't: The NSC created the "counterproliferation and biodefense directorate," which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one. The pandemic preparedness office was one of those three.

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by EZM

So, you are up to bat a third time.

First, you claim some grossly inaccurate low morality number from the CDC (a quarter of one percent) and - you are proven wrong from the information, ironically, from the CDC website which shows it at 4.9% - 20 times higher than you claimed in your post on this thread. That was strike one. No big deal, maybe you had bad info.

Next, you take those numbers, and either are trying to mislead us, or don't understand them, and claim the mortality rate is under 1% - when the data shows 4.9% - in fairness to you, the number was expressed in numeric and decimal format, and not at a straight percentage - so I understand that some people may have misinterpreted it, which is cool, nevertheless - that was strike 2. Let's move along - no big deal.

So we are up to bat a third time, and want to comment on one of my posts ......... so, let me get this straight, now, when discussing Canada's mortality rate, from the Government's own website, which is ~8.4%, (or 1 death in 12 infections) you are challenging the simple mathematical equation, that, statistically, if 12 people who contract Covid at a BBQ, that one of them won't die?

That would have been strike three for you. It's math. The government's website is reporting those numbers and that ratio.

Seriously Chuck, please just try and consider what I'm trying to show you. Just facts, no commentary on this topic.

You couldn’t get tested when that first wave struck. Especially in the states and Ontario/Quebec. So basically you’re working with garbage data. That’s not science. Garbage in = garbage out.

As far as I can tell, the most complete data in North America comes from Alberta. South Korea was testing like crazy on day two. That data is way more accurate than stuff from the States where there was no testing for a while.

I think we understand what you’re saying... you’re having a party, and not everyone is going to survive it. Doesn’t sound like a good party... before I make an educated decision on whether I should go or not, I need to know what kind of beer you will have, and will there be ladies?

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by 270person

Rioting already written off as a spike cause. Indoor mass gatherings yes. Like Trumptys Tulsa rally.

Written off by whom? Contact tracing of rioters who no doubt are completely willing to be identified and tested?
Gaahhh...

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by CMichaud

The 41 additional cases reported on Tuesday brings the total number of active cases in the province to 549.

The breakdown by region was:
Edmonton zone: 257 cases.
Calgary zone: 246 cases.
North zone: 37 cases.
South zone: 28 cases.
Central zone: four cases
Unknown: one case.

Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta's chief medical officer of health, provided her latest COVID-19 update at a news conference on Tuesday.

Case numbers in the province have been inching up in recent days. Alberta reported 71 new cases of COVID-19 on Monday.

It was the biggest spike in new cases since May 16, when 72 were reported.

As of Tuesday, there were 559 active cases in the province, with 41 people in hospital, including nine in intensive care.

So far, 154 people in the province have died from the illness.

The age breakdown of those who have died is:

80 years or older, 108 deaths.
70-79 years, 31 deaths.
60-69 years, 10 deaths.
50-59 years, two deaths.
40-49 years, one death.
30-39 years, one death.
20-29, one death.

By Monday, 7,354 people had recovered from COVID-19 in Alberta, and the province had completed 442,253 tests.
[/I]

So if I read right, there were 41 new cases in all of Alberta - 40 of which were connected to the restaurants listed above.

Our count is now:

7354 cases
559 active cases
41 in hospital
9 in ICU
154 deaths
442,253 tests

As a comparison BC reports:

2904 cases
153 active cases
18 in hospital
5 in ICU
174 deaths
192,432 tests

Of course the media do not provide the number of tests completed over the same 24 hour period.

As of yesterday, Alberta is performing about 2.2 tests for every one that BC does.

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by 270person

Herd immunity for Covid-19 ruled out as a possibility by the experts. We don't develop antibodies for this thing. Maybe a couple of generations down the line your offsprings offspring might be born with something to fight it.

People still get colds over and over. Thats a corona virus. No herd immunity. Same with the flu. Mutations and variations so we're always one step behind.

"We don't develop antibodies for this thing."
Wonder where I got mine from then, a Crackerjack box?.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by chuck

What part of these numbers do you not understand? What part. Your example is disingenuous and quite frankly misleading. It takes no demographic, no underlying conditions, none of it into consideration. And none of it takes into account antibody testing. It is a lie designed to promote an agenda.

“So far, 154 people in the province have died from the illness.

The age breakdown of those who have died is:

80 years or older, 108 deaths.
70-79 years, 31 deaths.
60-69 years, 10 deaths.
50-59 years, two deaths.
40-49 years, one death.
30-39 years, one death.
20-29, one death”

I have no trouble understanding math, or comprehending this at all. Thanks for asking.

I made ZERO references to any statistical distributions (by age) associated with aggregate mortality, as they relate to infections. NONE.

Now, you are trying to deflect and re-direct the conversation and trying to save face.

If you want to speak to mortality rate by age distribution, that's fine, make your point.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by Hadji Ramjet

"We don't develop antibodies for this thing."
Wonder where I got mine from then, a Crackerjack box?.

HAHA I know! Soon as he posted that I checked out of the conversation.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

You couldn’t get tested when that first wave struck. Especially in the states and Ontario/Quebec. So basically you’re working with garbage data. That’s not science. Garbage in = garbage out.

As far as I can tell, the most complete data in North America comes from Alberta. South Korea was testing like crazy on day two. That data is way more accurate than stuff from the States where there was no testing for a while.

I think we understand what you’re saying... you’re having a party, and not everyone is going to survive it. Doesn’t sound like a good party... before I make an educated decision on whether I should go or not, I need to know what kind of beer you will have, and will there be ladies?

Agreed that testing and the congruency of the data collection took most jurisdictions some time to get right - true - but I'd say the data is the best we have right now - at least the most credible.

To suggest a higher or lower rate from anyone, would be based on conjecture, but I'd say it's likely pretty accurate at this point and accuracy continues to improve the more data we get in (over these last 3-4 months or so).

I don't know if Alberta's data would be more accurate or less accurate compared to other jurisdictions - and not to argue, but why would you say that? just curious.

A party where someone dies would suck. Agreed. But if I'm having any party, you can bet there will be pretty ladies and cold beers. Without them, it's no party.