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  #511  
Old 07-08-2020, 06:24 PM
fishnguy fishnguy is offline
 
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Originally Posted by walking buffalo View Post
Why did you ignore posting Canada's death rate using your metrics.

Please explain why Canada has such a horrendous death rate compared to the US and the World?


US. 9.7%

World 7.9%

Canada 12.4% !
The rates were quite the opposite in the beginning but started switching places in April-May when the New York outbreak was dying down because of the lockdowns, while we started having outbreaks in nursing/senior homes. At the same time, the USA improved their testing numbers and are now ahead of us. Not that difficult to explain, unless I am missing something.

Those numbers are not that relevant due to numerous factors, including number of test per capita, asymptomatic carriers, etc. The mortality rates are probably near equal in both countries. I don’t see those numbers as a good comparison criteria.
  #512  
Old 07-08-2020, 07:38 PM
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^ Here is the latest study (June 22) on case fatality rates in Canada and the US, which are pretty much the same, according to the authors (around 1.6% in Canada and 1.8% in the US).

CMAJ: Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States

Interpretation

Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rates of COVID-19 cases are less than 50% in Canada, the adjusted CFR is likely to be less than 2%. Estimates of the adjusted CFR for the US were slightly higher than those for Canada but still remained below 2%. We note that the CFR at the regional or city level may be different from country-level estimates. For example, using the same methodology, we found that the crude CFR for New York City was 7.2% and the adjusted CFR was 7.8% (CrI 7.2%–8.8%) on Apr. 20, 2020. On the same date, the adjusted CFR with the reporting rate interval was estimated at 2.2% (CrI 0.9%–4.5%) (unpublished data, 2020).

Reasons for the variability in CFR estimates in different countries during COVID-19 outbreaks reported in the present study and by Rajgor and colleagues13 merit further study. For example, CFR estimates in similar geographic and climate conditions such as western Pacific islands vary widely, from 0.39% (Singapore) to 7.14% (Philippines).14 A meta-analysis of studies that estimated the COVID-19 CFR showed that 13.5% (95% CI 6.2%–21.5%) of inpatients died.15 In another study, an estimated CFR of 67% was reported in critically ill patients.16,17 The CFR will vary according to the population considered, such as that in a critical care setting, a general hospital or a long-term care facility.18–20 These influences and other host, environment and exposure variables that alter CFRs merit further study.
  #513  
Old 07-08-2020, 07:40 PM
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Originally Posted by fishnguy View Post
Those guys thinking that they (Sweden) just continue doing what they did back January are kidding themselves, read about it. Read about the state of their economy as well.
Just looked and their public gatherings restrictions are still limited to 50 people. So we are actually ahead of them as far as the “openness” goes, which is not surprising.
  #514  
Old 07-08-2020, 07:48 PM
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61,848 positives in the US today

Deaths now up to 890

I am expecting 100,000 / day in the next two weeks.

Deaths to continue climbing.
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  #515  
Old 07-08-2020, 08:16 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walking buffalo View Post
Why did you ignore posting Canada's death rate using your metrics.

Please explain why Canada has such a horrendous death rate compared to the US and the World?


US. 9.7%

World 7.9%

Canada 12.4% !
I didn't ignore Canada, I just didn't run the numbers. I was merely pointing out the US numbers for all the Trump groupies. Canadas percentage is higher because we have so few new cases, but if a death rate of 12.4% makes you happier fill yer boots.
  #516  
Old 07-08-2020, 08:20 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sundancefisher View Post
61,848 positives in the US today

Deaths now up to 890

I am expecting 100,000 / day in the next two weeks.

Deaths to continue climbing.
I was thinking 10 days, but we'll see who's closer. A lot of hospitals will have zero beds left by the end of the weekend.
  #517  
Old 07-08-2020, 08:30 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishnguy View Post
^ Here is the latest study (June 22) on case fatality rates in Canada and the US, which are pretty much the same, according to the authors (around 1.6% in Canada and 1.8% in the US).

CMAJ: Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States

Interpretation

Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rates of COVID-19 cases are less than 50% in Canada, the adjusted CFR is likely to be less than 2%. Estimates of the adjusted CFR for the US were slightly higher than those for Canada but still remained below 2%. We note that the CFR at the regional or city level may be different from country-level estimates. For example, using the same methodology, we found that the crude CFR for New York City was 7.2% and the adjusted CFR was 7.8% (CrI 7.2%–8.8%) on Apr. 20, 2020. On the same date, the adjusted CFR with the reporting rate interval was estimated at 2.2% (CrI 0.9%–4.5%) (unpublished data, 2020).

Reasons for the variability in CFR estimates in different countries during COVID-19 outbreaks reported in the present study and by Rajgor and colleagues13 merit further study. For example, CFR estimates in similar geographic and climate conditions such as western Pacific islands vary widely, from 0.39% (Singapore) to 7.14% (Philippines).14 A meta-analysis of studies that estimated the COVID-19 CFR showed that 13.5% (95% CI 6.2%–21.5%) of inpatients died.15 In another study, an estimated CFR of 67% was reported in critically ill patients.16,17 The CFR will vary according to the population considered, such as that in a critical care setting, a general hospital or a long-term care facility.18–20 These influences and other host, environment and exposure variables that alter CFRs merit further study.
CMA's numbers are a projection based on the numbers they had until mid April. The US at that time looked like they were improving (similar to Canada was) and had not started reopening. Since that paper came out they have done an awful job and their numbers have completely hit the hopper.
  #518  
Old 07-08-2020, 09:38 PM
mediumrare mediumrare is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurt505 View Post
If I didn’t know any better I would say they want covid to continue until our economies have been decimated so they can impose the globalist agenda.
That’s exactly what’s going on and the mainstream media with the assist
  #519  
Old 07-08-2020, 09:41 PM
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That’s exactly what’s going on and the mainstream media with the assist
wont be long at this rate. he has to be trying to start a revolution there is no other reasonable explanation https://youtu.be/SbBUFVjbEo4
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  #520  
Old 07-08-2020, 10:32 PM
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Over 45,000 cases and only 26 deaths in Singapore. State of the art testing as well. Probably not missing 80-90 percent of the cases like Canada and us https://www.worldometers.info/corona...try/singapore/
  #521  
Old 07-08-2020, 10:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishnguy View Post
The rates were quite the opposite in the beginning but started switching places in April-May when the New York outbreak was dying down because of the lockdowns, while we started having outbreaks in nursing/senior homes. At the same time, the USA improved their testing numbers and are now ahead of us. Not that difficult to explain, unless I am missing something.

Those numbers are not that relevant due to numerous factors, including number of test per capita, asymptomatic carriers, etc. The mortality rates are probably near equal in both countries. I don’t see those numbers as a good comparison criteria.

Yes, Fishinguy, I agree.
That's what I said here a couple of days ago.
If you care to see how this discussion developed, review back to post 396

It was fun to watch EZM and Scott h chase the ball trying to maintain their narrative and ignore Canada.
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  #522  
Old 07-08-2020, 11:08 PM
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At 711, the new policy is that you have to to ask clerk for a cup for Slurpee's now, so I asked for one today,
and as she went to fetch it, she adjusted her precious mask before touching the rim, then handed it
to me, me:"really,no thanks"...Come on folks, please don't be peeing on my leg by telling me masks
are helping 'not' spread this [censored] virus. Masks are one of the biggest contaminated cess pools out there imo.
  #523  
Old 07-09-2020, 01:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tri777 View Post
At 711, the new policy is that you have to to ask clerk for a cup for Slurpee's now, so I asked for one today,
and as she went to fetch it, she adjusted her precious mask before touching the rim, then handed it
to me, me:"really,no thanks"...Come on folks, please don't be peeing on my leg by telling me masks
are helping 'not' spread this [censored] virus. Masks are one of the biggest contaminated cess pools out there imo.
My god a slurpee......ice sugar crap...that alone will kill ya before the covid....

Cess pools...welcome to,7-11........come on folks.....really.
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  #524  
Old 07-09-2020, 01:49 AM
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Originally Posted by 58thecat View Post
My god a slurpee......ice sugar crap...that alone will kill ya before the covid....

Cess pools...welcome to,7-11........come on folks.....really.
..really, thats your reply...well, stay away from 70% of what the groc. store sells also.. the snotty "mask adjusters" are everywhere. Have a peek for yourself on your next outing, people confuse wearing a mask with "these are the good clean folk"..also, i been sipping slurpee's since the mid 90's, so, way before lil ol WHO chinese bat soup.
  #525  
Old 07-09-2020, 06:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tri777 View Post
At 711, the new policy is that you have to to ask clerk for a cup for Slurpee's now, so I asked for one today,
and as she went to fetch it, she adjusted her precious mask before touching the rim, then handed it
to me, me:"really,no thanks"...Come on folks, please don't be peeing on my leg by telling me masks
are helping 'not' spread this [censored] virus. Masks are one of the biggest contaminated cess pools out there imo.

Hmm, wonder why surgeons wear them in operating room.
  #526  
Old 07-09-2020, 07:03 AM
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Originally Posted by JohnB View Post
Hmm, wonder why surgeons wear them in operating room.
The ones the surgeons wear are medical grade and are changed every 20 minutes. The ones I see people wearing are not of the same quality.
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  #527  
Old 07-09-2020, 07:55 AM
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There is a huge difference between the hygiene protocol that a surgeon employs versus the average person on the street.
  #528  
Old 07-09-2020, 08:02 AM
Pathfinder76 Pathfinder76 is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnB View Post
Hmm, wonder why surgeons wear them in operating room.
Seriously? What?
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  #529  
Old 07-09-2020, 08:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnB View Post
Hmm, wonder why surgeons wear them in operating room.
I have never seen a surgeon dig around his/her mask with their hand then continue on with the surgery
  #530  
Old 07-09-2020, 12:46 PM
comaderek comaderek is offline
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I love the math class of this thread and data points that support ones own opinion being used.
All I know is both countries were caught off guard a bit and number of cases increased and amount of deaths were high.
What the experts wanted us to do was flatten the curve and try to reduce infections.
What I see Canada is doing that and because of it can more safely reduction restrictions and start to get back to normal.
US may have flattened it for a bit but then opened up the economy with not showing flattening the curve and now the infection rates are spiking. Looks like most people don’t care anymore in US.
  #531  
Old 07-09-2020, 12:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tri777 View Post
..really, thats your reply...well, stay away from 70% of what the groc. store sells also.. the snotty "mask adjusters" are everywhere. Have a peek for yourself on your next outing, people confuse wearing a mask with "these are the good clean folk"..also, i been sipping slurpee's since the mid 90's, so, way before lil ol WHO chinese bat soup.
maybe that's the cure....Slurpee's!

I am more of a veggies, lean wild meat, cold beer type guy....lots of crap out there....ohhh I do enjoy Nutella....maybe that's my cure...no wait...Lucky Lager!!!
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  #532  
Old 07-09-2020, 12:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnB View Post
Hmm, wonder why surgeons wear them in operating room.
you don't want to know….your passed out....as long as your fixed afterword's ask no questins
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  #533  
Old 07-09-2020, 05:08 PM
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EZM EZM is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walking buffalo View Post
Yes, Fishinguy, I agree.
That's what I said here a couple of days ago.
If you care to see how this discussion developed, review back to post 396

It was fun to watch EZM and Scott h chase the ball trying to maintain their narrative and ignore Canada.
It's all good - and sometimes there's no point in trying to change anyone's opinions if they don't want to consider it, or choose to ignore facts or simply aren't able to understand it. No big deal. It's part of life my friend. The bottom line is I consistently see two types of contributors to these discussions ..........



Some people present facts, sources directly from government agencies, present credible data and official statistics to make an intelligent, fact based argument.

OR ............

Others contribute nothing except clever peanut gallery comments - and meaningless dribble. It can be entertaining though.

There are also those who argue about things that are clearly over their heads and seem to be unable to understand. Happens to all of us sometimes.

Some are not capable of mounting a credible counter argument and avoid doing hard things like mathematics or reading or research, never mind the comprehension of the same. People are lazy sometimes.

And sometimes you get people posting and trolling contributors to a discussion, pointing them out, with nothing productive to contribute except aggravating other contributors. This usually derails the thread and makes it become a circus.

And, finally, there are the clueless deflectors who don't seem to understand that a thread entitled US COVID 19 pandemic is, ironically about the US, and not about Canada. That one is funny - people been spinning so long they have no idea where they are anymore. I'm getting older too, kinda like an old grumpy dog barking at a shadow that isn't really there.

Either way, it's part of life, no big deal. This is a discussion forum and one would expect that sometimes I guess.

just serving it back to you a little

Last edited by EZM; 07-09-2020 at 05:17 PM.
  #534  
Old 07-09-2020, 05:23 PM
270person 270person is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Bergerboy View Post
The ones the surgeons wear are medical grade and are changed every 20 minutes. The ones I see people wearing are not of the same quality.


So what? Are they all surgeons doing open heart surgery or are they trying to be considerate to others and possibly not pass something on? Like the Japanese do. Too bad North America didn't have their manners or their smarts. Might not be in the mess we are right now.
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  #535  
Old 07-09-2020, 05:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergerboy View Post
The ones the surgeons wear are medical grade and are changed every 20 minutes. The ones I see people wearing are not of the same quality.
“In many cases the scarf is better; it’s thicker. I mean you can — depending on the material, it’s thicker,”
  #536  
Old 07-09-2020, 06:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishnguy View Post
^ Here is the latest study (June 22) on case fatality rates in Canada and the US, which are pretty much the same, according to the authors (around 1.6% in Canada and 1.8% in the US).

CMAJ: Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States

Interpretation

Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rates of COVID-19 cases are less than 50% in Canada, the adjusted CFR is likely to be less than 2%. Estimates of the adjusted CFR for the US were slightly higher than those for Canada but still remained below 2%. We note that the CFR at the regional or city level may be different from country-level estimates. For example, using the same methodology, we found that the crude CFR for New York City was 7.2% and the adjusted CFR was 7.8% (CrI 7.2%–8.8%) on Apr. 20, 2020. On the same date, the adjusted CFR with the reporting rate interval was estimated at 2.2% (CrI 0.9%–4.5%) (unpublished data, 2020).

Reasons for the variability in CFR estimates in different countries during COVID-19 outbreaks reported in the present study and by Rajgor and colleagues13 merit further study. For example, CFR estimates in similar geographic and climate conditions such as western Pacific islands vary widely, from 0.39% (Singapore) to 7.14% (Philippines).14 A meta-analysis of studies that estimated the COVID-19 CFR showed that 13.5% (95% CI 6.2%–21.5%) of inpatients died.15 In another study, an estimated CFR of 67% was reported in critically ill patients.16,17 The CFR will vary according to the population considered, such as that in a critical care setting, a general hospital or a long-term care facility.18–20 These influences and other host, environment and exposure variables that alter CFRs merit further study.
No idea who these "authors" are ......... but they need a math lesson .....

Canada


107,000 cases and 8,800 deaths

That's roughly a 8% death rate in Canada. Source = government's own website.

The same story goes for the US, government's own website would dispute your "authors" as well as virtually every other credible entity but we all love a great story. Good fairy tales require great authors I guess.
  #537  
Old 07-09-2020, 06:40 PM
Pathfinder76 Pathfinder76 is offline
 
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What? This cannot be true. Fake news?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.busi...r-2020-6%3famp
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  #538  
Old 07-09-2020, 06:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tri777 View Post
At 711, the new policy is that you have to to ask clerk for a cup for Slurpee's now, so I asked for one today,
and as she went to fetch it, she adjusted her precious mask before touching the rim, then handed it
to me, me:"really,no thanks"...Come on folks, please don't be peeing on my leg by telling me masks
are helping 'not' spread this [censored] virus. Masks are one of the biggest contaminated cess pools out there imo.
You're worried about someone adjusting their mask? I have some bad news for you. That same clerk with or without the mask is likely picking their nose digging in their ears and scratching their ....... all day long while handing out change for your 20 and the change was handled by a million more like her/him before it got into the till.
  #539  
Old 07-09-2020, 07:15 PM
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tri777 tri777 is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jungleboy View Post
You're worried about someone adjusting their mask?...,
Yup, that's a 10-4..
  #540  
Old 07-09-2020, 07:37 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EZM View Post
No idea who these "authors" are ......... but they need a math lesson .....

Canada


107,000 cases and 8,800 deaths

That's roughly a 8% death rate in Canada. Source = government's own website.

The same story goes for the US, government's own website would dispute your "authors" as well as virtually every other credible entity but we all love a great story. Good fairy tales require great authors I guess.
A large part of the difference in the CFR is that the CMA has built into their calculation an assumption that only 50% of the cases in the community will be counted. They also tried to account for the covid deaths that will be missed.
For those that feel a CFR of 2% is nothing to worry about, they may not be aware that the CRF for the infamous "Spanish Flu" was 2.5%.
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