US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by EZM

"until God intervenes" is what you said.

My point was is there are other possibilities here outside of divine intervention.

We are not permitted to talk religion here - so let's move on - I'm cool with that perspective anyways. Everyone has their right to believe and I support and celebrate that right.

Sorry If I offended you in any way - was certainly not my intent in any way.

I did not say “until God intervenes”! I said “UNLESS God intervenes”.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by EZM

I can't dispute that at all. Agreed. My comments were about the principle.

Having said that the countries that came "closest" to doing that have yielded the best results in stopping the spread.

The ones that have been encouraged by leadership to ignore, resist, and deny are now leading the world with the highest infection rates and most deaths.

It will be interesting to see if those countries end up with the highest ratio of people with antibodies.

[nelsonob1]

Originally Posted by Osky

I didn't think you would be anything but stand up. I haven't checked our nations tally at this point but your number sounds right? Maybe we can get moderator SNS.. To check into a charity we can enrich one way or another.

Osky

Your not really going to bet on how many people are going to die. That's obscene.

[comaderek]

I really think everyone is losing sight of how we are trying to fight covid.
Limit cases so we don’t overwhelm our health care .
We hope to limit the spread until vaccine can be found.

Everyone was hit hard off the start and we have tried to adapt.
We understand we can’t stay locked down forever but we set guides to what we need to achieve to open safely.

Canada alright on lessons we learned, goals we tried to meet, listened to our medical experts and have not come close to overwhelming our health care. We are all on same path whether PC, NDP, Bloc or Liberal run provinces.

US didn’t learn, doesn’t listen to experts, set goals then gave up and are now overwhelming their health care . Democratic states are trying republican states are listening to dufus.

Will covid go away probably not but if we work together we can learn how to better live with it in our lives or we can do nothing and let it run its course. Good thing the world has a case study of the latter to watch in the good old USA. They are kind of lab rats of the world.

This is coming from as they say strongest , smartest and greatest country it the world. Raise your hand if you still believe that. It’s like watching the boy from the Beverly hillbillies every day.

Sorry no stats or math formulas or links to case studies just my own opinion as gather info I see and listen too. If I need a different view I need to watch FOX/Trump news!!

[Talking moose]

Originally Posted by nelsonob1

Your not really going to bet on how many people are going to die. That's obscene.

I’ve been biting my tongue on this. First thing I thought was who makes friendly bets on people losing loved ones.....the charity clause lent it credibility.
Maybe the charity should be gamblers anonymous.

[bessiedog]

Betting on how many dead.......



Classy..... real real classy.

Please rethink this.

[tri777]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

Betting on how many dead.......



Classy..... real real classy.

Please rethink this.

Oh relax, I myself don't believe in the numbers doubling is all.

[bessiedog]

Sorry

But I just been made aware of two families I know personally that now have Covid.

It’s a different perspective for me and that’s where I’m commenting from.

[Osky]

Originally Posted by nelsonob1

Your not really going to bet on how many people are going to die. That's obscene.

Noooooo, I'm saying far fewer people will die than EZ.. Has projected. I do believe the numbers are incorrect and inflated to begin with. This has all to do with a phoney media and crooked system here where the hospitals are enriching themselves.
Someone in previous post here mentioned one medical facility having an ICU unit 88% full. Yes it may be but are they all Covid patients? When the governors of those states are asked these questions directly they are saying the Covid cases are at best 18% of that 88% on average.
Also look at Florida and Texas alone where hundreds of testing sites are reporting 100% are testing positive. That's ridiculous. They have interviewed people who went into those testing sites who were told they were negative, but somehow they are part of the 100%. One hospital has been caught and revised its testing numbers DOWN by a factor of 10. From 89 some percent positive to the true number of 7.8%. Another facility mirrored that in its corrections. That's just two of thousands of testing sites.
The bet has everything to do with the idiocy of Americas media and the massive attempt to whip people into a lather.
Osky

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by chuck

I did not say “until God intervenes”! I said “UNLESS God intervenes”.

God left this idiotic planet and took over supervising another planet with a more inteligent life forms living on it......

[ward]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

God left this idiotic planet and took over supervising another planet with a more inteligent life forms living on it......

I bet it didn’t take much of a search to find the other planet.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by chuck

I did not say “until God intervenes”! I said “UNLESS God intervenes”.

Which god ?????

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Which god ?????

Read the actual quote. It has been taken COMPLETELY out of context.

But the bottom line Scott, is you are not stopping this thing.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by chuck

Read the actual quote. It has been taken COMPLETELY out of context.

But the bottom line Scott, is you are not stopping this thing.

beam me up "Scotty" there are no intelligent life forms here....

[raab]

Originally Posted by EZM

I can't dispute that at all. Agreed. My comments were about the principle.

Having said that the countries that came "closest" to doing that have yielded the best results in stopping the spread.

The ones that have been encouraged by leadership to ignore, resist, and deny are now leading the world with the highest infection rates and most deaths.

The virus isn't done. Lets see who comes out of this first and saves their economy. At some point the economic turmoil, mental health, and undiagnosed diseases due to restrictions will kill more people then the disease itself.

[raab]

On a side note, some of the only science guys may want to look up Plantinga's Evolutionary Argument Against Naturalism(EAAN)

[comaderek]

Originally Posted by raab

The virus isn't done. Lets see who comes out of this first and saves their economy. At some point the economic turmoil, mental health, and undiagnosed diseases due to restrictions will kill more people then the disease itself.

That is your belief. But most individuals have a mindset of trying to save lives at at a huge cost. When faced with tragedy like a pandemic we try to save lives as that is who we are . We value life so much that we fight to known threat in front of us and at times suffer consequences of that fight later. When a family member is ill we often sacrifice financial hardships to save our family member. Does mental health take a beating why we do that I would say yes. Where will we get the money to pay bills, etc etc. But we do it to try to save family members .
If we treat a country as a family we are knowingly taking on economic turmoil to help save members of our family. It is our nature.

So are u telling me if one of your family members was sick you wouldn’t suffer one bit to try to save them? Seems you are implying that .

[EZM]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

It will be interesting to see if those countries end up with the highest ratio of people with antibodies.

They like will, but, there is lots of evidence of people being re-infected - so antibodies (and herd immunity), and the supposed protections those provide are of little value.

That is not good news if the early indicators are proved true.

From a science perspective, there's isn't enough data to say one way or another - so until that comes out, we won't know for sure. It could be that some of these "reinfections" could be the body simply not resolving the virus completely.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/article...xperts-say.htm

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-...ry?id=71406787

[raab]

Originally Posted by comaderek

That is your belief. But most individuals have a mindset of trying to save lives at at a huge cost. When faced with tragedy like a pandemic we try to save lives as that is who we are . We value life so much that we fight to known threat in front of us and at times suffer consequences of that fight later. When a family member is ill we often sacrifice financial hardships to save our family member. Does mental health take a beating why we do that I would say yes. Where will we get the money to pay bills, etc etc. But we do it to try to save family members .
If we treat a country as a family we are knowingly taking on economic turmoil to help save members of our family. It is our nature.

So are u telling me if one of your family members was sick you wouldn’t suffer one bit to try to save them? Seems you are implying that .

No, what I'm implying is more a kin to your family member has cancer and so the whole family goes on a hunger strike until the cancer is defeated. The longer the cancer patient lives, the higher the risk of more people dying of hunger. It's not the cancer that kills the people in the family, its the hunger due to the cancer.

In the same way eventually the suicides, and undiagnosed diseases will eclipse the death rate of Covid-19. Thats not taking into account the other long term effects such as broken relationships, failed businesses and economic fallout cause by the whole situation. The best way to reduce the overall death rate is with a controlled opening and allowing the disease to spread at a pace where the medical system can keep up.

[raab]

Originally Posted by EZM

They like will, but, there is lots of evidence of people being re-infected - so antibodies (and herd immunity), and the supposed protections those provide are of little value.

That is not good news if the early indicators are proved true.

From a science perspective, there's isn't enough data to say one way or another - so until that comes out, we won't know for sure. It could be that some of these "reinfections" could be the body simply not resolving the virus completely.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/article...xperts-say.htm

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-...ry?id=71406787

If you cannot build antibodies then a vaccine is useless.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by raab

If you cannot build antibodies then a vaccine is useless.

I hate to compare this to influenza, but this would makes sense for most people that read this.

Yes, similar to influenza. You do build resistance (antibodies) after your resolve, but then another strain emerges and, another and, and another pretty soon you have no protection against the third or fourth strain.

The vaccine (and your own antibodies) only lasts for a period of time until they need to update the vaccine to match the latest strain of the virus. So, based on that analogy, that may be the way it is.

A vaccine will, even that is the case here, at least slow down the immediate version of the virus and then only new strains and new outbreaks will need to be managed by updated vaccines - exactly like we do for influenza - except this one far more transmittable and far more deadly.

Instead of "this years flu shot" maybe it will become "this years flu and SARS Covid shot"

Maybe it's the new "normal".

[Smoky buck]

Originally Posted by raab

If you cannot build antibodies then a vaccine is useless.

Most justify the plan of hiding on the hope of a vaccine being available in the near future. Even though there has never been a effective vaccine created for any of the COVID strains

If it is true that you cannot develop antibodies it throws a real warp into both the hope of vaccine or herd immunity

It would be interesting to hear what the best approach would be with these two options off of the table

[raab]

Originally Posted by EZM

I hate to compare this to influenza, but this would makes sense for most people that read this.

Yes, similar to influenza. You do build resistance (antibodies) after your resolve, but then another strain emerges and, another and, and another pretty soon you have no protection against the third or fourth strain.

The vaccine (and your own antibodies) only lasts for a period of time until they need to update the vaccine to match the latest strain of the virus. So, based on that analogy, that may be the way it is.

A vaccine will, even that is the case here, at least slow down the immediate version of the virus and then only new strains and new outbreaks will need to be managed by updated vaccines - exactly like we do for influenza - except this one far more transmittable and far more deadly.

Instead of "this years flu shot" maybe it will become "this years flu and SARS Covid shot"

Maybe it's the new "normal".

Yes, but what is that period of time? If this virus doesn't have seasonal highs like influenza, then people are always at risk to new strains and would continually need shots. I'm sure that will not go over well with the general population.

Also do you know how long it took to develop the quickest vaccine ever developed? 4 years! We can't allow this thing to go on for 4 years.

[raab]

Originally Posted by Smoky buck

Most justify the plan of hiding on the hope of a vaccine being available in the near future. Even though there has never been a effective vaccine created for any of the COVID strains

If it is true that you cannot develop antibodies it throws a real warp into both the hope of vaccine or herd immunity

It would be interesting to hear what the best approach would be with these two options off of the table

As I posted above theres no hope of a vaccine in the near future. The quickest vaccine took 4 years. No way I trust one developed in less then a year.

The fact is you will develop antibodies, even if they're not picked up on a blood test. In the case where no antibodies are present, and you had the disease your body will rely on your memory B cells. Your memory B cells will quickly activate on signs of reinfection and start a process of producing antibodies. The memory B cells are good for several years. They will also recognize similar forms of the virus and activate to help fight against other strains. Therefore herd immunity will work for a few years until they can develop a vaccine properly.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by raab

Yes, but what is that period of time? If this virus doesn't have seasonal highs like influenza, then people are always at risk to new strains and would continually need shots. I'm sure that will not go over well with the general population.

Also do you know how long it took to develop the quickest vaccine ever developed? 4 years! We can't allow this thing to go on for 4 years.

I don't know if even an expert can provide much of an answer to either of those questions with certainty. They are still learning about this virus and we don't know how it may act seasonally, or in secondary infections, etc...

Some people line up every year to get the new flu shot. I don't. Influenza shouldn't be a big issue for most healthy people. The Covid virus on the hand, presents a significantly higher risk to even healthy people and is even worse to those with vulnerabilities.

If there is a vaccine for Covid, I think I might change my tune and get one.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by EZM

They like will, but, there is lots of evidence of people being re-infected - so antibodies (and herd immunity), and the supposed protections those provide are of little value.

That is not good news if the early indicators are proved true.

From a science perspective, there's isn't enough data to say one way or another - so until that comes out, we won't know for sure. It could be that some of these "reinfections" could be the body simply not resolving the virus completely.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/article...xperts-say.htm

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-...ry?id=71406787

When it comes to re-infection...earlier reports were wrong and it was an issue with testing finding little bits of DNA in the body long after recovery.

There is something that is 100% true about Covid19. And that is there is lots we just don’t know yet. Such as:

1. We don’t know if you can catch it again
2. We don’t know what long term complications will follow people later in life
3. We don’t know why some perfectly healthy people die
4. We don’t know exactly why being over 60 is bad for being infected
5. We have new treatments but we don’t have any great treatments for those that get hit hard.

We do know that:

1. Masks help
2. Social distancing helps
3. We do know hospital space is most limiting when the virus spreads out of control.

There has been many different approaches around the world and the many different responses will provide many, many research papers and hopefully help when an even worse event occurs.

[ward]

Originally Posted by raab

No, what I'm implying is more a kin to your family member has cancer and so the whole family goes on a hunger strike until the cancer is defeated. The longer the cancer patient lives, the higher the risk of more people dying of hunger. It's not the cancer that kills the people in the family, its the hunger due to the cancer.

In the same way eventually the suicides, and undiagnosed diseases will eclipse the death rate of Covid-19. Thats not taking into account the other long term effects such as broken relationships, failed businesses and economic fallout cause by the whole situation. “The best way to reduce the overall death rate is with a controlled opening and allowing the disease to spread at a pace where the medical system can keep up.“

My understanding is that is what most of the world is trying to do. In some cases the leaders and citizens of those countries are not playing along.

[hogie]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...cVicPO&ampcf=1

Some more information on T cells and thoughts on herd immunity. This could be a huge development, more people infected than show up with antibody tests.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by hogie

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...cVicPO&ampcf=1

Some more information on T cells and thoughts on herd immunity. This could be a huge development, more people infected than show up with antibody tests.

I just read this article and watched the clip ........... it actually doesn't make sense in some ways and certainly doesn't match what I ( admittedly a non expert) thought how this works.

Interesting.

[hogie]

Yes, could explain why many of the predictions are so far off. Maybe it will just hit a certain amount of the population and that's it.

There are a few articles coming out, seems like it's not being reported on widely. Maybe not fitting with the end of the world narrative from MSM.