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  #1321  
Old 02-23-2021, 02:36 PM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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So the TSX fully recovered from its low of 11,200, to it previous record high by early Dec but overall has only gone up to 18,300, so another 700 points, in the last three months. There are however certain sectors that have really rotated. The premier Canadian Banks, RBC, TD, heck even BNS, CIBC and BMO, which all the BNN experts said to avoid in Oct are up 60% in the last 12 months and are well above their pre-melt down highs. Even oil and gas stocks have rebounded strongly, Vermilion went from a low of a buck to over 7.60, Freehold from $2.60 to $7.00. Peyto, Whitecap, CNRL and Siuncor have all rebounded well off their lows. The only ones not moving much yet are the pipelines like TRP, ENB etc. Last set of laggard stocks are the REITs, especially ones with office or indoor mall space.
If you are still waiting on the buying opportunities you may want to look at the laggard industries, especially those with good and secure dividend streams, and rotate out of the Fangs to lock in profits.
That is some good advice. I saw the gains on my Fin Tech stocks going exponential (hockey stick) and pulled out about 20% a couple weeks ago.
Just made me nervous.
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  #1322  
Old 02-23-2021, 06:43 PM
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Even oil and gas stocks have rebounded strongly, Vermilion went from a low of a buck to over 7.60, Freehold from $2.60 to $7.00. Peyto, Whitecap, CNRL and Suncor have all rebounded well off their lows. The only ones not moving much yet are the pipelines like TRP, ENB etc.
Hey Dean, are you buying into the oil and gas sector now/turned bullish short-intermediate term? I remember you saying you were negative longer term not to long ago on the sector. With WTI at 62$ and WCS at $50, names like CNQ are making a ton of cash, plus paying out increasingly hefty dividends, buying back shares and paying down debt. The industry as a whole has gotten more efficient, the survivors anyway. Lots more upside left, especially if we get WTI into the $70-$80 range like some big players are predicting.
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  #1323  
Old 02-23-2021, 07:02 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Yes it sure seemed most ignored these easy oil stock buys.... To name a few Remember when the sky was falling and CNRL hit $9.80? Cenovus hit $2.06? Crescent Point $0.75?
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  #1324  
Old 02-23-2021, 08:04 PM
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Yes it sure seemed most ignored these easy oil stock buys.... To name a few Remember when the sky was falling and CNRL hit $9.80? Cenovus hit $2.06? Crescent Point $0.75?
Who'd a thought we’d see negative oil prices?
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  #1325  
Old 02-23-2021, 08:29 PM
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Hey Dean, are you buying into the oil and gas sector now/turned bullish short-intermediate term? I remember you saying you were negative longer term not to long ago on the sector. With WTI at 62$ and WCS at $50, names like CNQ are making a ton of cash, plus paying out increasingly hefty dividends, buying back shares and paying down debt. The industry as a whole has gotten more efficient, the survivors anyway. Lots more upside left, especially if we get WTI into the $70-$80 range like some big players are predicting.
I have been buying and selling the oil and gas stocks. I still dont like them for a long term hold but when you can pick up from 100 to 500 percent on well managed, low leverage strong cashflow companies that have been beat down way below their value I just can't ignore those kinds of returns. A year from now I probably won't be holding any oil stocks again but in the meantime there is some excellent returns. REITs on the other hand are nearly as beat down and make great longterm, high dividend holds.
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  #1326  
Old 02-23-2021, 10:10 PM
fishnguy fishnguy is online now
 
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Agreed about the reits. Not sure about the recovery timeline though. Any ones in particular you are looking at, Dean?

Oil is recovering nicely. The opec plus are slowly increasing the production though.
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  #1327  
Old 02-24-2021, 08:31 AM
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I have been buying and selling the oil and gas stocks. I still dont like them for a long term hold but when you can pick up from 100 to 500 percent on well managed, low leverage strong cashflow companies that have been beat down way below their value I just can't ignore those kinds of returns. A year from now I probably won't be holding any oil stocks again but in the meantime there is some excellent returns. REITs on the other hand are nearly as beat down and make great longterm, high dividend holds.
Thanks Dean.
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  #1328  
Old 02-24-2021, 07:02 PM
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Bubbles going to pop.

POP POP.

If you have been in for the last few months, make the smart play and take the profits.

Or stay and enjoy the ride down.

POP POP
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  #1329  
Old 02-24-2021, 07:38 PM
pikeman06 pikeman06 is offline
 
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You got that right, not sure how it can't pop. Everyone pouring money into dividend stocks paying 5 or 6 cents on the share. well wait till that actual stock drops 10 or 20 percent on the VALUE OF THE STOCK. Theres gonna be some heavy profit taking once things get nervous and the guys left holding the shares are gonna realize what happens when their 25 or 30 dollar share is hammered down to 20 bux on a dividend cut announcement, or a net loss in the billions. There's millions of armchair investors with their finger on the SELL button and when it happens look out. Just my 2 cents. March and April always scared me when I was in the game. Not sure if its the tax season or what but if we were ever due for a major plunge its in the near future.
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  #1330  
Old 02-24-2021, 07:42 PM
MooseRiverTrapper MooseRiverTrapper is offline
 
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Another stimmy coming down the pipe boys. Oil is the new tech.
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  #1331  
Old 02-24-2021, 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by nelsonob1 View Post
Bubbles going to pop.

POP POP.

If you have been in for the last few months, make the smart play and take the profits.

Or stay and enjoy the ride down.

POP POP
Would you go now or would you have gone before the US election ? Thanks
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  #1332  
Old 02-24-2021, 07:59 PM
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When it pops, it is extraordinary how little it takes and how impossible it is to stop. Millions of day traders scrambling to get out, margin accounts imploded, and then BOOM, the big money follows.

The smart investors don't care. They either already cashed or they are in it for another cycle anyway.
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  #1333  
Old 02-24-2021, 08:04 PM
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BOC & the Fed just reiterated their interest rate' lower for longer' stance. As long as I've been watching, I've never seen central bankers forecast this long out.

The developed world really owes a lot of money. Interest rate hikes will trigger a crash, always have, always will. The money has to flow to equities for awhile yet.
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  #1334  
Old 02-24-2021, 08:07 PM
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Would you go now or would you have gone before the US election ? Thanks
I was out except for 10% in October. Did ok but stayed away from the screamers. Now I have a bunch of silly bets for laughs but all are limited to last quarter profits.

Had my fingers on 100 Games shares this morning, thought it might do the usual 5% play but it had already moved so didn't push the button. It's almost as much fun to be out than in.
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  #1335  
Old 02-24-2021, 08:10 PM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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Well yes there is a bit of a bubble in certain areas.
But you haven't seen anything yet.

Biden has a $1.9 Trillion stimulus package coming.

US citizens have stashed away about $5 Trillion in savings.

Our Canadian government has committed to $100 Billion in stimulus once the economy reopens.

Canadian savers have stashed away $90 Billion.

Canadian business $80 Billion.

A huge bubble is coming, no doubt.
Brace yourselves.
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  #1336  
Old 02-24-2021, 08:10 PM
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Originally Posted by nelsonob1 View Post
I was out except for 10% in October. Did ok but stayed away from the screamers. Now I have a bunch of silly bets for laughs but all are limited to last quarter profits.

Had my fingers on 100 Games shares this morning, thought it might do the usual 5% play but it had already moved so didn't push the button. It's almost as much fun to be out than in.
I wanted out but my advisers talked me into staying in. A guy can't hire experts then ignore them, might as well do it yourself. Wow, am I glad I listened....
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  #1337  
Old 02-24-2021, 08:10 PM
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Originally Posted by roper1 View Post
BOC & the Fed just reiterated their interest rate' lower for longer' stance. As long as I've been watching, I've never seen central bankers forecast this long out.

The developed world really owes a lot of money. Interest rate hikes will trigger a crash, always have, always will. The money has to flow to equities for awhile yet.
Interest rates are a displacement: a new paradigm that sets the stage for the crash.
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  #1338  
Old 02-24-2021, 10:29 PM
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Rates are sure getting steep all of a sudden. It feels like something is about to break. I think some parts of the market are going to get killed while other parts are going to do really well.

The Fed had some financial plumbing trouble today. System for interbank transfers had a glitch of some sort. Perhaps the money printer blew a breaker?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/ca.finan...202209649.html
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  #1339  
Old 02-25-2021, 07:21 AM
59whiskers 59whiskers is offline
 
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Picked up on a little cheap energy stocks the last 3 months that pay dividends. No doubt there will be more big corrections.
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  #1340  
Old 02-25-2021, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by nelsonob1 View Post
Bubbles going to pop.

POP POP.

If you have been in for the last few months, make the smart play and take the profits.

Or stay and enjoy the ride down.

POP POP
The sooner the better, everything goes on sale.
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  #1341  
Old 02-25-2021, 11:34 AM
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Default Rates going ballistic

Looks like a 60+Bips jump in the ten yr in the last 3 months is starting to kick the crap out of stuff today. Governments are so screwed if this continues.
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  #1342  
Old 02-25-2021, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
Well yes there is a bit of a bubble in certain areas.
But you haven't seen anything yet.

Biden has a $1.9 Trillion stimulus package coming.

US citizens have stashed away about $5 Trillion in savings.

Our Canadian government has committed to $100 Billion in stimulus once the economy reopens.

Canadian savers have stashed away $90 Billion.

Canadian business $80 Billion.

A huge bubble is coming, no doubt.
Brace yourselves.

THIS^^^^^


As long as the stimmy checks keep coming....the US Treasury is putting together an Infrastructure Bailout package for Summer.

The FED will also step in with Y.C.C.


I would say raise some "cash"....buy don't discount the fact these markets could rocket higher from here.

Maybe "Sell in May" ....

I think the markets are far from done....but when they POP...


Yes it will be UGLY!!!!
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  #1343  
Old 02-25-2021, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by nelsonob1 View Post
When it pops, it is extraordinary how little it takes and how impossible it is to stop. Millions of day traders scrambling to get out, margin accounts imploded, and then BOOM, the big money follows.

The smart investors don't care. They either already cashed or they are in it for another cycle anyway.
I personally have a long time which is why I'm still in. And this is the reason I'm in undervalued stock paying a good dividend right now. The Market cant handle a P/E over 30. The whole thing has to pop. I don't want to be holding small caps at that point, or speculative stock. But then again I dont know what I'm doing according to one poster.
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  #1344  
Old 02-25-2021, 02:10 PM
raab raab is offline
 
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Well the 10 year is up almost 10% today. Hope you're all ready for some inflation.

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  #1345  
Old 02-25-2021, 05:07 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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The medium-term outlook is for more red ink. Alberta is on track to carry $98 billion in tax-supported debt this year, rising to more than $132 billion by 2024. The province's debt a decade ago was $5.1 billion.
forgot to save during the good times .
oh well
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  #1346  
Old 02-25-2021, 05:10 PM
badbrass badbrass is offline
 
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Gave it all to Q-bec!!!!!
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forgot to save during the good times .
oh well
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  #1347  
Old 02-25-2021, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by bdub View Post
Looks like a 60+Bips jump in the ten yr in the last 3 months is starting to kick the crap out of stuff today. Governments are so screwed if this continues.
x 5 trillion
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  #1348  
Old 02-26-2021, 08:57 AM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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I am not that concerned about the 10 year bond yield yet.
Typically the 10 yr / 2 yr spread indicates that the US economy is moving out of recession. Some inflation ahead may be indicated.
I am not concerned until the spread breaks above 2.0 and stays there for a while.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/
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  #1349  
Old 02-26-2021, 10:18 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
I am not that concerned about the 10 year bond yield yet.
Typically the 10 yr / 2 yr spread indicates that the US economy is moving out of recession. Some inflation ahead may be indicated.
I am not concerned until the spread breaks above 2.0 and stays there for a while.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/
That chart look awfully close to the 2008 ..
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  #1350  
Old 02-26-2021, 03:11 PM
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Most of you guys already know this but: interest rate increases will show up as price degradation in the interest sensitive stocks like Utilities, Pipelines, Life Insurance companies etc. Banks will actually benefit from rising rates, so despite being dividend plays they don't see the same effect on price to as large a degree.

Fact remains if a stock is yielding a 5% dividend it takes an interest rate of 8-9% to be the equivalent after tax income. Only within a tax sheltered plan is 5% interest equivalent to a 5% dividend. We have a long ways to go before interest rates on CDIC insured, Triple A or Government bonds hits 5%. Within an RRSP it makes sense to get rid of the stock price risk at equal or close dividend vs interest rate, but you also get rid of the potential upside gain on the share price. That said, if you are going to have some component of your portfolio earning interest it makes sense for that to be in RRSP or RIF. RRSP is where I keep the strip bond component of the portfolio.
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