Alberta hospitals straining dangerously under weight of COVID-19, doctors warn

[Talking moose]

Does covid wake up at 10:00 pm?

[Talking moose]

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[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Talking moose

Does covid wake up at 10:00 pm?

The later into the evening, the more drunk people get. The more drunk they get, the louder and more boisterous they get and that makes it more likely an infected person will pass the bug along. Cause and effect.

[jrowan]

Originally Posted by Scott h

The later into the evening, the more drunk people get. The more drunk they get, the louder and more boisterous they get and that makes it more likely an infected person will pass the bug along. Cause and effect.

Yep, and with a 10pm cutoff people will start pounding back doubles earlier in the night and the behaviour will just shift to 9-10.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by jrowan

Yep, and with a 10pm cutoff people will start pounding back doubles earlier in the night and the behaviour will just shift to 9-10.

Yup. The new guidelines are lip service. I think it’s a case of trying to keep things rolling until the vaccine comes out in January.

[Talking moose]

Originally Posted by jrowan

Yep, and with a 10pm cutoff people will start pounding back doubles earlier in the night and the behaviour will just shift to 9-10.

Or even worse, it will chase people away from a semi controlled environment, to after hours social gatherings at homes to continue on partying and such.

[jrowan]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Yup. The new guidelines are lip service. I think it’s a case of trying to keep things rolling until the vaccine comes out in January.

Hopefully, things pan out with Pfizer, but at the time of the announcement, they only had about 7 days of data post 2nd injection. The FDA wants at least 2 months. So they still have a lot of data to crunch. I'm expecting that 90% effectiveness number Pfizer reported Monday to drop off after about 4-6 months after injection since reinfection has shown to be very possible: https://nationalpost.com/news/russia...y-wont-save-us

I do think the vaccine will get approved by early/mid December, and deliveries will probably start getting to Canada in Feb/March if Pfizer doesn't step-up and quickly expand and license production in multiple countries with other labs/companies. If they do then January might be attainable. But still I think that might be right around the time Pfizer sees their vaccine's effectiveness to start to drop off a cliff, which could prevent timely delivery of vaccines to Canada if US citizens need additional vaccines to inocculate again.

[Geraldsh]

Remember the good old days when you had to find a bootlegger if you wanted to drink more on Sunday?
Maybe fill your trunk and drive around after 10:00, easy money.

[Trochu]

Making some assumptions here, but it amazes me that people who are genuinely concerned about the unknowns with Covid and fact it may cause heart and lung issues a decade later will welcome a vaccine that's been tested for two months.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Yup. The new guidelines are lip service. I think it’s a case of trying to keep things rolling until the vaccine comes out in January.

Haven't they almost all been lip service? People are complaining about how Canada's handled it, how the US has handled it, how Sweden's handled it, how New Zealand's handled it.....

-My brother, and family, can't visit their parents but the parents can visit their son;
-Closing a park;
-You can get in a guys face and breath the same air during a face off but you can't hit him then skate away. It's very easy to argue that hitting decreases the time spent in close quarters;
-15 person limit on social gatherings, 50 person limit for weddings (isn't a wedding a social gathering); etc.

Tough spot to be in, they won't be able to please everyone, but I know if I catch Covid, I won't be shouting from the rooftops that it's the governments fault because they didn't do X.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Haven't they almost all been lip service? People are complaining about how Canada's handled it, how the US has handled it, how Sweden's handled it, how New Zealand's handled it.....

-My brother, and family, can't visit their parents but the parents can visit their son;
-Closing a park;
-You can get in a guys face and breath the same air during a face off but you can't hit him then skate away. It's very easy to argue that hitting decreases the time spent in close quarters;
-15 person limit on social gatherings, 50 person limit for weddings (isn't a wedding a social gathering); etc.

Tough spot to be in, they won't be able to please everyone, but I know if I catch Covid, I won't be shouting from the rooftops that it's the governments fault because they didn't do X.

My position from day one has been that this is a virus, it’s going to kill people until it runs it’s course or we get a vaccine, no matter what measures are taken there will be no stopping it. The only way to make a meaningful change will be a 100% lockdown and I highly doubt we will allow that so the only option is to accept the facts, take your safety into your own hands and I base my level of precaution on my personal health condition, I suggest others do the same because government, health officials or the lady next door won’t be able to shelter you from a virus.

[CaptainJ]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

You’re not debating anything here, you just thought you were, so your absence won’t make any difference.

Bahaha


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[CaptainJ]

No strong opinions on Corona Virus until today.

Last January, Corona was killing people. migrated to Italy and killed lots of people, migrated over the world in Q1. Be cautious if it comes to Canada. Target demographic for fatal incidence is elderly

Q2(spring/summer) flu season starting to die down and Corona enters Canada. No major concerns yet.

Q3 (summer/Fall) flu season still dormant. Virus doesnt seem as deadly anymore, but lets find out in flu season next quarter.

Q4 (fall/winter) Flu season is here. Corona Virus ramping up. Donald Trump caught it (elderly), Amys parents caught it (elderly). I know a hanful of other people who caught it. No issues. More enjoyable to go through, than a minor cold

Virus has clearly morphed from being super deadly, to not at all in a matter of 10 months. I personally have never caught a virus outside of January/fabruary, so interesting to see what happens in Q1 of 2021.

I think right now there is a big over-reaction to everything seeing as how these elderly are catching the virus and nothing happens.

Media: "the virus exploding, "x" amount of new cases in "Y" region"
Yeah, who cares. If its not deadly like it was back in January-March and everyone is now walking away just fine, why do people care?

Probably not the most popular opinion, I get that, but its my opinion.

Also my opinion: Wear a mask, not because it does anything, but because it makes other people feel more comfortable because they are told to wear a mask.


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[Scott h]

Originally Posted by jrowan

Yep, and with a 10pm cutoff people will start pounding back doubles earlier in the night and the behaviour will just shift to 9-10.

And that is why they will ultimately close them down in the next short while......

[Jadham]

[QUOTE=CaptainJ;4267368]No strong opinions on Corona Virus until today.

Last January, Corona was killing people. migrated to Italy and killed lots of people, migrated over the world in Q1. Be cautious if it comes to Canada. Target demographic for fatal incidence is elderly

Q2(spring/summer) flu season starting to die down and Corona enters Canada. No major concerns yet.

Q3 (summer/Fall) flu season still dormant. Virus doesnt seem as deadly anymore, but lets find out in flu season next quarter.

Q4 (fall/winter) Flu season is here. Corona Virus ramping up. Donald Trump caught it (elderly), Amys parents caught it (elderly). I know a hanful of other people who caught it. No issues. More enjoyable to go through, than a minor cold

Virus has clearly morphed from being super deadly, to not at all in a matter of 10 months. I personally have never caught a virus outside of January/fabruary, so interesting to see what happens in Q1 of 2021.

I think right now there is a big over-reaction to everything seeing as how these elderly are catching the virus and nothing happens.

Media: "the virus exploding, "x" amount of new cases in "Y" region"
Yeah, who cares. If its not deadly like it was back in January-March and everyone is now walking away just fine, why do people care?

Probably not the most popular opinion, I get that, but its my opinion.

Also my opinion: Wear a mask, not because it does anything, but because it makes other people feel more comfortable because they are told to wear a mask.




How about this, which has been what everyone else has been reading

Q1 Novel respiratory virus with fairly high infectivity starts out in China. Disease is NOT super deadly like other coronavirus (say like SARS and MEVS), but does seem to require hospitalization of 5-10% causing a strain on hospital resources. But that is China so a bit of black box. However, soon after, Northern Italy, a first world democracy, is in trouble with their hospital system completely overwhelmed. Then France and Spain.

Q2 Lockdowns in most 1st world countries slow down infection rates with few further instances of hospitals being overwhelmed. Local issues highlight local problems or high rate of local infections (e.g New York, Seniors facilities in central Canada, etc). However, severe economic contraction starts.

Q3 Gradual reopening to try to balance the economy and Covid spread. Emerging information about the virus, vaccine development, interesting case reports leads to variable attitudes and approaches to the pandemic, often conflicting.
But case counts beginning to rise as fall starts.

Q4 (current) increasing case counts, hospitalizations lead to further measures to contain virus. Evolving situation, will have hindsight by maybe February.

This is a population/society issue, not a personal one. You have to know 10-20 people who have had it to know the one who had a bad case. Knowing 3-4 people or having a mild case yourself means nothing. It is the societal impact of widespread disease amongst a large population with limited resources that becomes the issue. To prevent widespread infection requires various population measures.

[Kurt505]

8300 active cases in Alberta
225 hospitalizations


On a scale of 1-10 where would you rate your personal risk level?

1 is extremely mild symptoms
10 is death

5 would be just an average flu

I put mine at 6.5, I have had a prior flu I would rate an 8 on this same scale.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

8300 active cases in Alberta
225 hospitalizations


On a scale of 1-10 where would you rate your personal risk level?

1 is extremely mild symptoms
10 is death

5 would be just an average flu

I put mine at 6.5, I have had a prior flu I would rate an 8 on this same scale.

Not to diminish your symptoms but your description makes it seem like your case ranked a solid 1 on a covid severity scale.
1- Feeling lousy at home
2- Hospital admission
3- high flow oxygen
4- Bipap
5- intubation/ventilation
6- + Paralysis
7- + Nitric oxide
8- +Prone ventilation
9- +ECMO
10- Death

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Not to diminish your symptoms but your description makes it seem like your case ranked a solid 1 on your scale.
1- Feeling lousy at home
2- Hospital admission
3- high flow oxygen
4- Bipap
5- intubation/ventilation
6- + Paralysis
7- + Nitric oxide
8- +Prone ventilation
9- +ECHMO
10- Death

By your scale there is a 90% chance of hospitalization. I’d say 97% of all cases fit into a level 1. Not much to worry about at all.

[Howard Hutchinson]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Yup. The new guidelines are lip service. I think it’s a case of trying to keep things rolling until the vaccine comes out in January.

>>
I agree with this. Premier is pressed into doing something to appease the population. Much better than locking things down like earlier in this mess.

Said it before. I am glad to not be the one having to make these decisions.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Not to diminish your symptoms but your description makes it seem like your case ranked a solid 1 on a covid severity scale.
1- Feeling lousy at home
2- Hospital admission
3- high flow oxygen
4- Bipap
5- intubation/ventilation
6- + Paralysis
7- + Nitric oxide
8- +Prone ventilation
9- +ECMO
10- Death

I now understand some of the rampant confusion

[Jadham]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

8300 active cases in Alberta
225 hospitalizations


On a scale of 1-10 where would you rate your personal risk level?

1 is extremely mild symptoms
10 is death

5 would be just an average flu

I put mine at 6.5, I have had a prior flu I would rate an 8 on this same scale.

Is that a risk level or symptom level? Is that a risk of contracting the virus or risk of death or of serious disability? They are all different things and don’t fit on the same scale.


But the health policy issue is: what is the number of people that need to be hospitalized and what will that number be next week, in two weeks and one month and what is our hospital & ICU capacity.

[whiteout]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Yup. The new guidelines are lip service. I think it’s a case of trying to keep things rolling until the vaccine comes out in January.

If that’s what it is, its idiotic thinking.

The government has alluded to March 2021 as potential approval, predicated on the incomplete trial working out. Then, Pfizer can only make enough vaccine in 2021 for about 650 million people. The US and EU countries were locking up orders in July, we got on board in August, so chances are we aren’t near the front of the line. And even then, we only have an order for 10 million full courses in.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Jadham

Is that a risk level or symptom level? Is that a risk of contracting the virus or risk of death or of serious disability? They are all different things and don’t fit on the same scale.


But the health policy issue is: what is the number of people that need to be hospitalized and what will that number be next week, in two weeks and one month and what is our hospital & ICU capacity.

Since I posted the number of confirmed cases (could probably add a couple thousand to that), and the number of hospitalizations, let’s say you fit into those numbers...


It’s a risk to your person health if you contract covid 19. I’ll add that of those 225 hospitalized, most are over 60 and I’ll suggest that most also have at least one pre existing health issue.

What would you guess your personal health risk would be with a 2.7% chance of hospitalization?

[ward]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

8300 active cases in Alberta
225 hospitalizations


On a scale of 1-10 where would you rate your personal risk level?

1 is extremely mild symptoms
10 is death

5 would be just an average flu

I put mine at 6.5, I have had a prior flu I would rate an 8 on this same scale.

Based on your 1 to 10 scale, I have never had a flu that would score over 3. You have had some crappy luck.

And if Covid is a 6.5, I sure as hell don’t want it. I don’t even want to think about an 8 case of the flu.

[Jadham]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Since I posted the number of confirmed cases (could probably add a couple thousand to that), and the number of hospitalizations, let’s say you fit into those numbers...


It’s a risk to your person health if you contract covid 19. I’ll add that of those 225 hospitalized, most are over 60 and I’ll suggest that most also have at least one pre existing health issue.

What would you guess your personal health risk would be?

My personal risk of contracting COVID or how bad I might feel has nothing to do with potential strain on the hospitals or why the health care personnel are petitioning/warning the government (the thread topic).

[jrowan]

Originally Posted by whiteout

If that’s what it is, its idiotic thinking.

The government has alluded to March 2021 as potential approval, predicated on the incomplete trial working out. Then, Pfizer can only make enough vaccine in 2021 for about 650 million people. The US and EU countries were locking up orders in July, we got on board in August, so chances are we aren’t near the front of the line. And even then, we only have an order for 10 million full courses in.

And yet that is exactly what happened in the UK. They ended up having to lock down for 4 weeks and might have to stay locked down for even longer. For some reason, a few leaders seem to think that closing down should only be done when absolutely necessary but also don't factor in that you need to make critical calls 2-4 weeks ahead of when things are bad so that they don't get worse. Staying ahead of the spread is tricky.

Right now AHS is about 2 weeks behind in contact tracing, if not farther behind. IMHO when they were a week behind we should have shut down for a week or two to let them catch up. At the very least in the Calgary and Edmonton area (plus surrounding communities). It isn't like Ontario made the same mistake in March during March break and re-opened a long time after AB.

[ward]

The only risk Covid presents to me is the burden I would have to bear if I passed it on to someone due to my carelessness or negligence. I would like to think we all feel that way.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by ward

The only risk Covid presents to me is the burden I would have to bear if I passed it on to someone due to my carelessness or negligence. I would like to think we all feel that way.

yup...thank god the majority still do...we only hear the complainers....the minority....but man do they rally eh

[Talking moose]

59 better get practicing in front of the mirror. You can’t make this stuff up. Lol



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[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Jadham

My personal risk of contracting COVID or how bad I might feel has nothing to do with potential strain on the hospitals or why the health care personnel are petitioning/warning the government (the thread topic).

Ya, but that’s not what I asked. Is there any reason in particular you don’t want to answer the question?