Alberta hospitals straining dangerously under weight of COVID-19, doctors warn

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

I’m not knocking what the doctors and nurses are doing, I’m making the point it’s still getting through.

I didn't think you were, and you're absolutely right it's getting through. As I said, it's a numbers game, and the more times that you have to go through putting on ppe, and then taking off ppe the higher your chances of a miss step. It has a lot of steps, and you can easily miss something at 4am. That not only effects the staff member that gets infected, it will also effect all the other down stream patients that they are looking after.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by HVA7mm

Are you saying that all COVID cases were from patient contact while on the job, or is there a chance that some of these positive COVID cases could have occurred while off the job?

I'm talking doctors, nurses, ancilary etc.

I'm sure many of the cases originated away from work, but certainly not all.
If you just spent the last 3 weeks working in an icu with multiple covid positive patients every day, and then you were tested positive. Would you think that you picked it up at work? Or would you assume that you got it off the self serve gas pump? Obviously you would never be able to know the truth of where you got infected, but sometimes if it looks like a duck, and sounds like a duck.....

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

You are more optimistic than I am, the virus can live indefinitely in the cold, so I’m other words it can literally be floating around in our cold Canadian air, land on your coat, get transferred to your hand when you go to hang your coat up in the closet then go up your nose when you wipe it. Basic social distancing, hand washing, mask wearing or limited gatherings isn’t going to slow it down now, it’s out there and it’s prolific, and now with the cold it’s able to hang in suspended animation.

https://theconversation.com/does-cor...we-know-148465

Unfortunately, we will only learn exactly how changes in the weather affect the pandemic by living through it.

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

I think most are and I know everyone never will no matter how many times we say to do it, and that’s why I have my point of view on the subject. It’s awesome to say follow the protocols, it’s a pipe dream to believe it will happen, unfortunately but realistically, this isn’t going to get under control without herd immunity and a vaccine, it’s just the nature of the beast. Unless of course people are willing to make the ultimate sacrifice and go 100% lockdown, which again is another pipe dream imo.

The way I see it, you can deny what I’m saying or come to terms with it, but in my narrow mind it’s the reality of the situation.

It’s everywhere so you are right that its unstoppable but pandemic planners never thought it reasonable to reverse a pandemic. They even said border controls wouldn't work. (They do in the short term.) Flattening the curve has been the agenda from the start.

That was actually unfortunate because advance preparation beyond the hospitals and a huge up front, seemingly over-reaction, on the part of governments at their borders could have stopped it in its tracks. It was initially a first world problem. Poor people seldom fly or take cruises. Shipping can be contained (no pun intended) Eg. Taiwan, NZ

The question to ask is How would the next oitnreakk be dealt with? A couple trillion dollar impact today should trigger some tweaking in how future virial outbreaks are handled.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by sk270

Hi Kurt,

Don't want to start another argument. Also, I live in Saskatchewan and it may be different in Alberta.

I don't have a solution. I would like to see as many businesses stay open as possible. At the same time, I don't want to see anyone, regardless of age or health, die unnecessarily or suffer long term health damage.

I know you don't want to hear the same things over again. However, in my own experience there are many people who do not wear masks and do not maintain a respectful distance. Many do not follow the advice of staying home except for work and essential outings. I don't know for sure, but I suspect many people do not self-quarantine when feeling ill or exposed to infectious cases at work or elsewhere.

For example, I know that there are quite a few rec hockey games being played here and elsewhere. These are certainly not essential no matter how much fun they may be. How about all the bars and clubs that are open every night?

I do wonder what would happen if everyone did all these things all the time. But I don't know either.

Do you think most people are following the advice right now?

If we don't all try, we will never know. Maybe a vaccine will save us.

exactly...like I mentioned before the protocols are there but many just don't follow them....so here we are....bars, house parties, family gatherings, churches etc...prime example here for instance staff at bars all wear their PPE etc....10 oclock at night and bar packed...people going from table to table visiting, socializing etc....large farming families get togethers for sunday diners....just crazy....that is what is driving our numbers up....selfishness...it will impact our health system and economy....wait and see the next month or so....winter is coming.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Jadham

Hmm, my solution? Or the solutions of those who work in the field and know more than the average joe? You do realize that Australia and New Zealand cut their cases down to near zero right? Yes, with the same shutdowns, masking, hand-washing etc that all the experts are promoting?


Maybe get off your horse...and listen to what others are stating.

And if you are following all the guidelines and recommendations that is great, guess you don't truly believe that an individual is only responsible for oneself and can only trust himself 100%.

Huh, imagine that? Shutdowns are working? Like what I said would be the only thing that works? So what you’re saying is you think my solution is the one that works but your feeling are hurt at my lack of compassion....

What would make you suggest I don’t believe that the only one who can truly be trusted 100% is myself? Only a fool would believe otherwise. Not even the 12 apostles proved to be 100% trustworthy, and look who picked that team!

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Scott h

At this point the next logical step is to shut down gathering places that have proven to be high risk for viral spread. Bars, restaurants, gyms., etc.

What about schools?

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

What about schools?

yup...I predict that there will be a two week lockdown like we had in March good thing bout it many know what is expected and can make adjustments accordingly.

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by Scott h

I'm sure many of the cases originated away from work, but certainly not all.
If you just spent the last 3 weeks working in an icu with multiple covid positive patients every day, and then you were tested positive. Would you think that you picked it up at work? Or would you assume that you got it off the self serve gas pump? Obviously you would never be able to know the truth of where you got infected, but sometimes if it looks like a duck, and sounds like a duck.....

Who knows, but when the total number of COVID cases that have been hospitalized is around 1300, and the total number of confirmed cases among healthcare workers is over 2700 it is a bit concerning. I'm not sure how the government breaks down healthcare workers (acute care, continuing care, ambulatory etc.) so the numbers could be very skewed.

I'm not pointing fingers, however if the general public is expected to be vigilant, I would expect those working in healthcare to be extra vigilant.

[midgetwaiter]

Originally Posted by Jadham

What is the average # free/open beds in November in Alberta ... 200? 2000? 20 000?

Or more importantly ICU beds?

A few days ago it was 70 doctors writing to the government. Today it is 400. Maybe those on the frontlines have a better idea than you or I about a brewing crisis.

Making decisions based on number of beds in use today could be also be a dangerous practice, it’s a lagging indicator. Someone requiring hospitalization today wouldn’t have been exposed yesterday, it would have been a week or maybe longer. Therefore we have to consider that it’s likely a spike in hospitalizations today is the result of increased transmission a week ago. If that increased transmission rate held a steady line during the week then a week from now is going to be much worse.

This is why those doctors are worried.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

What about schools?

A good point, but it seems like picking the low hanging fruit would be the place to start with. It's been documented many times that bars, restaurants, gyms, churches are all massive spreaders.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by HVA7mm

Who knows, but when the total number of COVID cases that have been hospitalized is around 1300, and the total number of confirmed cases among healthcare workers is over 2700 it is a bit concerning. I'm not sure how the government breaks down healthcare workers (acute care, continuing care, ambulatory etc.) so the numbers could be very skewed.

I'm not pointing fingers, however if the general public is expected to be vigilant, I would expect those working in healthcare to be extra vigilant.

Trust me, people who look after SICK patients are well aware of the risks and take it seriously.

[Jadham]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Huh, imagine that? Shutdowns are working? Like what I said would be the only thing that works? So what you’re saying is you think my solution is the one that works but your feeling are hurt at my lack of compassion....

What would make you suggest I don’t believe that the only one who can truly be trusted 100% is myself? Only a fool would believe otherwise. Not even the 12 apostles proved to be 100% trustworthy, and look who picked that team!

Like I said I feel sorry for you that you don’t have others in your life you can trust implicitly.

A combination of shutdowns, mask wearing, hand washing has been shown to work both in small scale studies and in large populations & countries. . None of these are “your” or “my” solutions. Your opinions are yours, most of which I disagree with. This doesn’t make me right or wrong, neither does it makes your right or wrong. This thread is about health care workers pressing for more action on controlling the spread of COVID. You have done a roundabout in your posts from saying nothing will work, it’s in the air, the hospital workers have high numbers, my case of COVID wasn’t that bad etc and are now back to shutting down and isolating is the method that you agree with and works. Fine. I am one of the people that would prefer a compromise between reasonable number of cases, reasonable precautions and limited shutdowns for business. I certainly don’t want the hospitals to get overwhelmed but neither do want an economic Depression.

And as FYI, neither you nor your posts have any affect on my feelings and likely not on any of the posters here. This is a internet discussion board where topics get discussed and debated.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by midgetwaiter

Making decisions based on number of beds in use today could be also be a dangerous practice, it’s a lagging indicator. Someone requiring hospitalization today wouldn’t have been exposed yesterday, it would have been a week or maybe longer. Therefore we have to consider that it’s likely a spike in hospitalizations today is the result of increased transmission a week ago. If that increased transmission rate held a steady line during the week then a week from now is going to be much worse.

This is why those doctors are worried.

You got it. People that get infected today won't start being hospitalized for another week or two.

[Jadham]

Originally Posted by midgetwaiter

Making decisions based on number of beds in use today could be also be a dangerous practice, it’s a lagging indicator. Someone requiring hospitalization today wouldn’t have been exposed yesterday, it would have been a week or maybe longer. Therefore we have to consider that it’s likely a spike in hospitalizations today is the result of increased transmission a week ago. If that increased transmission rate held a steady line during the week then a week from now is going to be much worse.

This is why those doctors are worried.

Yes I agree. Those were meant to be thought provoking questions. Obviously if the frontline is concerned, they likely have more information than the average AO poster.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Scott h

A good point, but it seems like picking the low hanging fruit would be the place to start with. It's been documented many times that bars, restaurants, gyms, churches are all massive spreaders.

We had a quite extensive interview with AHS, and although we had KFC takeout, we did not visit any of the hot spots you listed. I have two job sites going but have had almost zero contact with other trades because of the stage the job sites are in and otherwise have only been going to my cabin where I had contact with 1 other person (who has not had any symptoms to date). I suggested perhaps it may have come from KFC or possibly a gas pump, the lady from AHS believes it was most likely brought home from the school. I have not heard one way or another if there have been any other cases at the school.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Jadham

Like I said I feel sorry for you that you don’t have others in your life you can trust implicitly.

A combination of shutdowns, mask wearing, hand washing has been shown to work both in small scale studies and in large populations & countries. . None of these are “your” or “my” solutions. Your opinions are yours, most of which I disagree with. This doesn’t make me right or wrong, neither does it makes your right or wrong. This thread is about health care workers pressing for more action on controlling the spread of COVID. You have done a roundabout in your posts from saying nothing will work, it’s in the air, the hospital workers have high numbers, my case of COVID wasn’t that bad etc and are now back to shutting down and isolating is the method that you agree with and works. Fine. I am one of the people that would prefer a compromise between reasonable number of cases, reasonable precautions and limited shutdowns for business. I certainly don’t want the hospitals to get overwhelmed but neither do want an economic Depression.

And as FYI, neither you nor your posts have any affect on my feelings and likely not on any of the posters here. This is a internet discussion board where topics get discussed and debated.

The only thing that’s done a roundabout is your comprehension.

[KinAlberta]

Really neat and effective presentation method.


I’d guess that other period pending deaths would be leapfrogged as covid-19 gets them first and many deaths that would be pending in 5 to say 10 years hence are also brought forward by covid-19.


SELECTED DEATHS VS COVID-19 CANADA

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/...ovid-19-canada

[Jadham]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

The only thing that’s done a roundabout is your comprehension.

Lol you’re cute.

Look in the mirror at your insight and comprehension. You’re the one with ongoing arguments with what ?4 ?5 ?6 AO members on this thread.

And please let me know what infectious pathogen you can see, smell or taste. Or is COVID special that way? That was your best line.

I’ll sign off and let you debate things with the others now.

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

That is true. However, ICU occupancy went from 16 11-12 days go, to 25 last Friday to 39 yesterday, and 43 today (these are just the numbers I looked at and remeber). That would be 170% in 11-12 days. I am not saying it is time to panic, but definitely something to note and perhaps get concerned about if the trend continues. If it does, it means over 200 beds in less than a month from today. Definitely something to look out for.

51 people are getting intensive care today. At the press conference today, they mentioned that there are currently 70 such beds in total that are devoted to covid. So, about 73% filled and an increase of about 20% in 2 (!) days. Good luck to us, I guess.

Edmonton had already cut the nonessential procedures and services by 30% they said. We should expect further cut, zero doubt in mind.

There is about 7% increase in daily hospitalisations in rural Alberta they said and 5% elsewhere in Alberta. I could have gotten this part wrong because my daughter wouldn’t stop talking to me when Hinshaw was saying those numbers, so please correct me if I did get it wrong.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Jadham

Lol you’re cute.

Look in the mirror at your insight and comprehension. You’re the one with ongoing arguments with what ?4 ?5 ?6 AO members on this thread.

And please let me know what infectious pathogen you can see, smell or taste. Or is COVID special that way? That was your best line.

I’ll sign off and let you debate things with the others now.

You’re not debating anything here, you just thought you were, so your absence won’t make any difference.

[gman1978]

We need blooplop or what ever his name was on here to graph this all out LOL. He thought he was dying from covid multiple times hope the guy is alright

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by gman1978

We need blooplop or what ever his name was on here to graph this all out LOL. He thought he was dying from covid multiple times hope the guy is alright

Think he's still trying to get in for his test

[Sporty]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

I should have worded it differently, but you’re not any better posting your bs that just because I don’t share your panic I must want to spit on gas pump handle. What my point is, is that ultimately the onus is on the individual to protect themselves, and just like anything in life, the only one you can trust 100% is yourself.

I hear all kinds of you bashing my opinion but have yet to hear a single solution to the problem. So far restrictions, masks, hand washing, social distancing, small gatherings have all failed, what’s your suggestion? I don’t want to hear wash mask distance, I could say to do all that but this is something we’re all already doing, so give me your solution.

It's great that you were able to ride through it without any serious effects or lasting medical issues. My son's MIL had covid last winter, she didn't have any underlying health issues and she's not that old, mid fiftyish. Things were was pretty touch and go for her for a bit and she was placed in ICU and put on a respirator. Her quality of life now is pretty grim with lingering side effects in the way of scarring on her lungs.

Although you did not have a bad experience with COVID, there are others that may and when people see and hear things like "it's just a flu", it can lead to people becoming more complacent. Your experience with it isn't the end all to be all. At this point, I believe that Alberta and BC are doing fairly well with controlling the spread. BC is looking at their restrictions regionally where the cases are surging, that's a better way of approaching it rather than Manitoba's code red. What we want to avoid is what is happening in some states where the surges are so out of control that places like El Paso need mobile morgues with deaths up to 20 in a day.

Regardless of one's position on COVID, I would like to believe that's what we all would want to avoid.

[35 whelen]

Originally Posted by Sporty

It's great that you were able to ride through it without any serious effects or lasting medical issues. My son's MIL had covid last winter, she didn't have any underlying health issues and she's not that old, mid fiftyish. Things were was pretty touch and go for her for a bit and she was placed in ICU and put on a respirator. Her quality of life now is pretty grim with lingering side effects in the way of scarring on her lungs.



Although you did not have a bad experience with COVID, there are others that may and when people see and hear things like "it's just a flu", it can lead to people becoming more complacent. Your experience with it isn't the end all to be all. At this point, I believe that Alberta and BC are doing fairly well with controlling the spread. BC is looking at their restrictions regionally where the cases are surging, that's a better way of approaching it rather than Manitoba's code red. What we want to avoid is what is happening in some states where the surges are so out of control that places like El Paso need mobile morgues with deaths up to 20 in a day.



Regardless of one's position on COVID, I would like to believe that's what we all would want to avoid.

No kidding just because one person's experience with this virus wasn't as bad doesn't mean it's not going to be for somebody else. And the effects after if you recover i heard can be quite bad.

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

51 people are getting intensive care today. At the press conference today, they mentioned that there are currently 70 such beds in total that are devoted to covid. So, about 73% filled and an increase of about 20% in 2 (!) days. Good luck to us, I guess.

Edmonton had already cut the nonessential procedures and services by 30% they said. We should expect further cut, zero doubt in mind.

There is about 7% increase in daily hospitalisations in rural Alberta they said and 5% elsewhere in Alberta. I could have gotten this part wrong because my daughter wouldn’t stop talking to me when Hinshaw was saying those numbers, so please correct me if I did get it wrong.

The beds are being taken up fast and Kennys minimal efforts looks like it will make virtually zero difference to the current trajectory. This time next week non all essential procedures will probably be halted.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Sporty

It's great that you were able to ride through it without any serious effects or lasting medical issues. My son's MIL had covid last winter, she didn't have any underlying health issues and she's not that old, mid fiftyish. Things were was pretty touch and go for her for a bit and she was placed in ICU and put on a respirator. Her quality of life now is pretty grim with lingering side effects in the way of scarring on her lungs.

Although you did not have a bad experience with COVID, there are others that may and when people see and hear things like "it's just a flu", it can lead to people becoming more complacent. Your experience with it isn't the end all to be all. At this point, I believe that Alberta and BC are doing fairly well with controlling the spread. BC is looking at their restrictions regionally where the cases are surging, that's a better way of approaching it rather than Manitoba's code red. What we want to avoid is what is happening in some states where the surges are so out of control that places like El Paso need mobile morgues with deaths up to 20 in a day.

Regardless of one's position on COVID, I would like to believe that's what we all would want to avoid.

That’s definitely a terrible outcome. It would be nice if people who have had a rough time could post their experience, how they think they possibly caught it, age, weight, physical condition, nationality, what the early stages was like right through to present day. It might help paint a picture or profile.

I do hope your sons mother in law is able to continue recovering, it’s happened before where they have come out of the hospital but remained on a respirator for a while but kept reviving and were able to get off the machine.

If I had a choice I would avoid it, but the same could be said for any sickness, I still haven’t found one I’ve enjoyed.

[Sporty]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

That’s definitely a terrible outcome. It would be nice if people who have had a rough time could post their experience, how they think they possibly caught it, age, weight, physical condition, nationality, what the early stages was like right through to present day. It might help paint a picture or profile.

I do hope your sons mother in law is able to continue recovering, it’s happened before where they have come out of the hospital but remained on a respirator for a while but kept reviving and were able to get off the machine.

If I had a choice I would avoid it, but the same could be said for any sickness, I still haven’t found one I’ve enjoyed.

Thanks for the kind words, their family still worry immensely for her. My son says that it's like she's aged 5 years after having COVID.

She and her family do share her experience, as do many others. There are a lot of accounts out there if one were interested in looking at other perspectives. No offense intended but it is somewhat irresponsible to refer to it as just the flu based on your experience with it. I understand that people are suffering from COVID fatigue, I am as well and this has been hard on all people. If we all start throwing caution to the wind, we will end up with more lockdowns. IMO, Slow, and steady infection rates will keep everyone somewhat satisfied.

I want to continue working but the industry I'm in will be one of the first to shut down if there is another lockdown. I have sacrificed family moments in order to comply with the guidelines and it's frustrating when others blatantly disregard or discourage others from following the protocols put in place by people who know more than I do. That doesn't mean that I'm going to line up for a vaccine, if I happen to get COVID, I hope it's mild, if it isn't, I hope that the hospitals aren't overrun to the point my (and everyone else's) care, would be compromised.

[jrowan]

Remember when the UK had bars and restaurants close at 10pm? The doctors there said the measures weren't good enough and would prolong a lockdown because of delaying it. Now they're in lockdown for 4 weeks until the end of November.

If the UCP acted now they would have shortened the lockdown that will now come later and longer.

[Jack'n]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Stop being a nob? You expect everyone to follow the rules on covid but you can’t even follow forum rules?

Keep pretending we can stop this, the reality is it’s not stopping until we have herd immunity and a vaccine. Never once did I suggest not to follow the protocols we have in place, I’m sick of the likes of you sitting on a high horse just because follow the protocol and anyone who follows protocols but isn’t terrified of the virus is the problem. Just because I’m willing to face the reality of the situation doesn’t make me the problem with society, it’s guys like you who have zero real world experience but will preach to those who have actual experience. Since you seem to have the answers, can you tell me how my family contracted the virus? I know what AHS had to say about it but I’m interested in what you have to offer.

Come on real life experience Kert, what do you have to offer for our society. Meaningless posts and opinions, I am sorry I have an opinion too (which is also meaningless) but when I say something all of a sudden you become offended.

But hey, you are what you eat.