Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by fishtank

so report online said about 300,000 have left the night before they shutdown wuhan with travel restriction . they better start tracking those flights landings . the fatality rate for MERS its 30-40% , the SARS was 50% .

Fatality rate is a misleading indicator. The ease of transmission and things like the incubation period (potentially with no symptoms but still spreading the flu) are much more important indicators in determining the overall threat. 50% mortality of a relatively small number of infected is not as bad as 2-5% of the entire world population. Think about how effective we are at stopping the common flu...even with vaccines in place.

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

Fatality rate is a misleading indicator. The ease of transmission and things like the incubation period (potentially with no symptoms but still spreading the flu) are much more important indicators in determining the overall threat. 50% mortality of a relatively small number of infected is not as bad as 2-5% of the entire world population. Think about how effective we are at stopping the common flu...even with vaccines in place.

Scary part of infections in the coronovirus family is they can morph quickly. Looks like it is already quite contagious and that 2-3% could jump to 50%. Sure that is worst case scenario but worth keeping an eye on.

[Drewski Canuck]

Who cares about Mortality Rate, unless of course you are the one dying, when you could have more than 1/2 your population very sick, with lingering health effects?

TB did not kill alot, but it sure crippled many.

Right now, the focus is on the mortality rate, but if hospitals overflow with very sick people, alot of jobs do not get done, and the system comes to a grinding halt very quickly.

Even if people are not bed ridden, not wanting to go out to interact, and work, will be a huge burden on the local economy.

Drewski

[bloopbloob]

Based on existing data, the disease is said to have a 2% death rate. This means that for every 50 people who catch the infection, one will statistically die.

To put this into context, around one in every 1,000 who develop flu die, giving it a death rate of 0.1%.

“This [2019-nCoV’s death rate] could be 2%, similar to Spanish flu,” said Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London."

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 is widely regarded as “the deadliest in history”, and is believed to have infected around 500 million people worldwide, killing between 20 and 50 million.


The mortality rate is not indicative of how serious this could be... It's the rapid spread that is the scary part. Also, Spanish Flu was from a time with less people, and much less travel. Ease of travel and high population concentrations are going to supercharge a similar event.

[The Elkster]

This doesn't have to become a 50% killer to have a massive impact. Its not just the impact of the virus itself. How many people are going to carry on as normal and go to work even if the lethality is only 10%. What does that do to the functioning of key systems like health and energy?

[AndrewM]

Couldn't imagine the logistics of putting a city of 11 million in quarantine.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

Couldn't imagine the logistics of putting a city of 11 million in quarantine.

plus an additional 220,000 funerals if ONLY 2% die

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

The fact that one person infected 14 doctors/nurses alone suggests this is HIGHLY contagious

It might suggest that you don't want to have any surgery in China, if they have such pizz poor standards to control transmission of infection....yikes. Did they do this in a cave? Use ditch water to scrub??

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck

It might suggest that you don't want to have any surgery in China, if they have such pizz poor standards to control transmission of infection....yikes. Did they do this in a cave? Use ditch water to scrub??

Or its a testament to just how contagious this bug is. Obviously there is grave concern. I don't think China shuts down multiple cities on a whim.

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck

It might suggest that you don't want to have any surgery in China, if they have such pizz poor standards to control transmission of infection....yikes. Did they do this in a cave? Use ditch water to scrub??

It is passed like the common cold and I think prior to the confirmation of the outbreak.

[raab]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Based on existing data, the disease is said to have a 2% death rate. This means that for every 50 people who catch the infection, one will statistically die.

To put this into context, around one in every 1,000 who develop flu die, giving it a death rate of 0.1%.

“This [2019-nCoV’s death rate] could be 2%, similar to Spanish flu,” said Professor Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London."

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 is widely regarded as “the deadliest in history”, and is believed to have infected around 500 million people worldwide, killing between 20 and 50 million.


The mortality rate is not indicative of how serious this could be... It's the rapid spread that is the scary part. Also, Spanish Flu was from a time with less people, and much less travel. Ease of travel and high population concentrations are going to supercharge a similar event.

The Spanish flu killed middle aged healthy adults... and had a 10-20% mortality rate.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by raab

The Spanish flu killed middle aged healthy adults...

This virus is still in it's infancy. As it spreads exponentially, so will the mutations, and the chances of this thing being more that just what it has shown to be thus far.

From Oxford Academic/Infectious Disease Society of America:

"Because of their seasonal travel by railroad, these migrant workers were a likely source for the introduction and spread of the influenza virus in Spain. Starting in central and southern France (close to the battlefields and Army camps) and following the railway path from north to east (Portugal) and from north to south (Andalusia), the influenza spread throughout nearly all of Spain's provinces [11, 19, 20, 23, 24] (figure 1). Mortality rates associated with influenza in this first period of the epidemic ranged from 0.04 to 0.65 deaths per 1000 inhabitants [19]. The overall mortality rate increased only slightly during this first epidemic period.

The second period of the epidemic - Influenza-related mortality rates were extremely high, ranging from 0.5 to 14.0 deaths per 1000 inhabitants

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/47/5/668/296225

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by raab

The Spanish flu killed middle aged healthy adults... and had a 10-20% mortality rate.

yes but that was 1918 before modern medicine and while a war was going on.

[bloopbloob]

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...imeline-2020-1

Look at the map in the link. Spreading like wildfire in only a couple days.
2.74% mortality rate, as another death brings it to 18

[raab]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...imeline-2020-1

Look at the map in the link. Spreading like wildfire in only a couple days.
2.74% mortality rate, as another death brings it to 18

It’s killing mostly older men. If it mutates to start using the immune system against the person I’ll be worried. Right now it’s a typical mortality rate of a influenza type virus.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by raab

It’s killing mostly older men. If it mutates to start using the immune system against the person I’ll be worried. Right now it’s a typical mortality rate of a influenza type virus.

Where are you getting your information?????. Typical influenza is 0.1%, strain is known, and we have vaccines for it. We do not have vaccines for this one. Anyways, I could argue about mortality rates, that is not what is so concerning to me. It's the exponential rate of spread and the infancy. Mutations will be coming fast and fierce, and eventually one will evolve to be a real killer. It's not even the deaths, for every death reported, there are hundreds of people extremely ill, just not dead.

[lmtada]

Originally Posted by Dean2

More people die every day from Flu and influenza world wide, on average 400,000 a year, than are being affected by the new "Plaque". The media LOVEs to sensationalise these things. Even SARs, which was in the news endlessly and still is despite it being 17 years later, only killed about 900 people world wide. It was over 10% of those confirmed as infected, though infection rates are not very accurate. In the overall scheme of stuff that kills people, it isn't even a ripple.

Didn't stop the media from making it into a world killer Pandemic, followed by Avian Flu, then the Pig Virus. This is just the latest click bait..

X2. Good point Dean. Flu kills 50,000 Americans year, likely 4-5,000 Canadians annually. Yes 400,000 world wide. Media needs drama to sell.

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by lmtada

X2. Good point Dean. Flu kills 50,000 Americans year, likely 4-5,000 Canadians annually. Yes 400,000 world wide. Media needs drama to sell.

Absolutely the media loves drama to sell. I would rather countries be over responsive and be wrong then under responsive and be wrong.

[KGB]

I just got off the phone with my sister who lives in Toronto. She is a pharmacist. Her husband is a computer wis who has a contact in China. He talked to him yesterday and he said that we have zero understanding here what is actually going on in China now. We only been shown may be 10% of the problem... It is apparently really ugly there right now. A huge area is under the quarantine. Military is everywhere, they have orders to shoot without warning. Shortages of food spreading as we speak.
In Toronto, none of the pharmacies have any N95 rated face masks left, all sold out. That is the only mask that can actually filtrate the viruses... Sister told me that they can’t even order them, all on back order. She told me to go and buy a package here before it’s too late.
If you are going to the doctors office, hospital or any place like a Dynalife to get the lab work done- wear one!
If you are at the airport, airplane - wear one!
This sh@t is not a joke boys. Up your daily doze of vitamin C and D. Get out your garlic and onions and don’t worry about the smell/odour. You need to boost your body’s immune system to a max.

[The Elkster]

Originally Posted by lmtada

X2. Good point Dean. Flu kills 50,000 Americans year, likely 4-5,000 Canadians annually. Yes 400,000 world wide. Media needs drama to sell.

Surprisingly there is very little coverage in much of the media and I haven't seen much for sensational headlines. Much of the info is trickling out of China via social media and suggestions are its worse than media is reporting. I actually found that interesting and a bit weird as you'd think the MSM would be lapping this stuff. I'm almost wondering if they've been encouraged to not highlight it for now.

Its possible this is an overreaction by the Chinese gov't after the criticism for their handling of SARS. The resulting panic and hysteria may be causing most of the problems but its impossible to say right now. The WHO doesn't seem ready to call this a severe threat so that gives me some peace. Still going to start preparing to hunker down just in case.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by KGB

I just got off the phone with my sister who lives in Toronto. She is a pharmacist. Her husband is a computer wis who has a contact in China. He talked to him yesterday and he said that we have zero understanding here what is actually going on in China now. We only been shown may be 10% of the problem... It is apparently really ugly there right now. A huge area is under the quarantine. Military is everywhere, they have orders to shoot without warning. Shortages of food spreading as we speak.
In Toronto, none of the pharmacies have any N95 rated face masks left, all sold out. That is the only mask that can actually filtrate the viruses... Sister told me that they can’t even order them, all on back order. She told me to go and buy a package here before it’s too late.
If you are going to the doctors office, hospital or any place like a Dynalife to get the lab work done- wear one!
If you are at the airport, airplane - wear one!
This sh@t is not a joke boys. Up your daily doze of vitamin C and D. Get out your garlic and onions and don’t worry about the smell/odour. You need to boost your body’s immune system to a max.

first hand info - how are people gonna say it isn't happening now?

[Dean2]

For those saying it isn't all over the media I have no idea what media u read. CNN BNN, CBC, BBC, Reuters has stories all over place. For those saying we have no idea how bad it is, seven the highly incented and reactionary WHO has so far refused to call it an emergency.

We shall see how this pans out but my money is media spin and hype that amounts to nothing. Y2K, SARS, et al.

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by Dean2

For those saying it isn't all over the media I have no idea what media u read. CNN BNN, CBC, BBC, Reuters has stories all over place. For those saying we have no idea how bad it is, seven the highly incented and reactionary WHO has so far refused to call it an emergency.

We shall see how this pans out but my money is media spin and hype that amounts to nothing. Y2K, SARS, et al.

Call me chicken little. I’m watching this one close. Y2K and SARS didn’t concern me. H1N1 hit me like a ton of bricks but I wasn’t worried. This one has my attention. Might even buy an extra can of beans next time I’m in town.

[buckbrush]

The governments of the world would let us know if this was the one. Right?
At least give us a chance to run wild and panic buy/loot.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

The governments of the world would let us know if this was the one. Right?
At least give us a chance to run wild and panic buy/loot.

I lol'd

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Who cares about Mortality Rate, unless of course you are the one dying, when you could have more than 1/2 your population very sick, with lingering health effects?

TB did not kill alot, but it sure crippled many.

Right now, the focus is on the mortality rate, but if hospitals overflow with very sick people, alot of jobs do not get done, and the system comes to a grinding halt very quickly.

Even if people are not bed ridden, not wanting to go out to interact, and work, will be a huge burden on the local economy.

Drewski

I care about the mortality rate.

I also care that when all the hospitals are full of incapitated victims and there are no beds for anyone else they start moving them into schools and halls and the ground.

This has a chance of being very very bad.

How many people have flown from China to North America in the past 144 hours? Everyone breathing the same air in a jet means they are all in a great possibility of being infected and spreading it here.

[buckbrush]

I just read that 5 of the 17 who died didn’t show a fever. Might need a better way to screen at the airports...

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by KGB

I just got off the phone with my sister who lives in Toronto. She is a pharmacist. Her husband is a computer wis who has a contact in China. He talked to him yesterday and he said that we have zero understanding here what is actually going on in China now. We only been shown may be 10% of the problem... It is apparently really ugly there right now. A huge area is under the quarantine. Military is everywhere, they have orders to shoot without warning. Shortages of food spreading as we speak.
In Toronto, none of the pharmacies have any N95 rated face masks left, all sold out. That is the only mask that can actually filtrate the viruses... Sister told me that they can’t even order them, all on back order. She told me to go and buy a package here before it’s too late.
If you are going to the doctors office, hospital or any place like a Dynalife to get the lab work done- wear one!
If you are at the airport, airplane - wear one!
This sh@t is not a joke boys. Up your daily doze of vitamin C and D. Get out your garlic and onions and don’t worry about the smell/odour. You need to boost your body’s immune system to a max.

Hmmmm....and my brain went *click*....I use N95 masks from 3M for work, I only have 5 or 6 left.....so I just called my favorite supplier who still has 6 boxes in stock and put aside 4 of them. If things go bad, gonna trade them for gold! Otherwise, at least this way I won't be looking all over for them as the price goes through the roof and I need them for work. Thanks for the heads up!

[Ken07AOVette]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51230011

the people lining up at the pharmacies are nervous, imagine that?

[bdub]

25 deaths now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/23/chin...twitter%7Cmain