Financial Markets Meltdown

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by bdub

I wonder if it’s gonna be a big nothing burger. Europe is already looking at lockdowns. If the fatality rate goes from the current next to nothing to something more significant, that might change my mind. I think covid is almost in the rear view mirror otherwise. An opportunity maybe if we get a good freakout.

its one way to bring down oil prices ...lol

[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishtank

its one way to bring down oil prices ...lol

Holy cow, no kidding. That reaction seemed a bit overdone I think. The timing sure seemed planned as they couldn't have picked a better day to announce a new Covid strain. Markets trading on a shortened trading day in the States plus it was a Friday after a holiday.

The price reacted like they are shutting the world down again, and perhaps that's the plan??? The last big drop (>10%) like that was due to a previous Covid scare too. We have an OPEC meeting on December 2nd and I wouldn't be surprised if they hold off on planned increases.

I believe we are already in an energy crisis and a structural deficit and this is just a short term attack by the Biden clowns as they are crapping their pants over inflation.

It is giving investors a BTFD moment if they are light on oil imo. Some of the better quality names held up not bad, CNQ -5.3%, TOU - 3.3%, CVE -5.5%. Nat Gas was also up strong on the day, plus 7% to almost $5.50.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by nelsonob1

Inflation being where it is, one would think they were terrified of printing any more money. Even if this or some other variant shows up, I think the CERB teat is now dry.

I know you must be kidding. It's Turdo and Canada we are talking about here, right?

Discount the QE part of it for now and what the BOC is doing. Most of this inflation is coming from the ginormous fiscal deficit Turdo is running trying to save us all from a bad cold, coupled with the supply side shocks, which are again thanks to government over reaction to Covid. The monetary side of this mess has been to keep interest rates at rock bottom for so long so that everyone can smother themselves in a ton of debt and we can go broke trying to pay it off once we are forced to raise interest rates again due to, yup inflation. We can thank the central banks for that part of this mess.

[Twisted Canuck]

It's almost as if something similar happened with another guy named Trudeau. Just without the bad cold.

[fishtank]

Is it just me or car company offering longer payment terms 72-96 months , jeeps offering 96 month financing at 3.5% that’s one way to keep the payment down ... just longer terms

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Is it just me or car company offering longer payment terms 72-96 months , jeeps offering 96 month financing at 3.5% that’s one way to keep the payment down ... just longer terms

Crazy! Will a jeep even last 96 months? Lol!

[Dean2]

Well, as if we needed it, more proof that the stock market has disconnected and now trades on the news of the day. There was a time when markets traded on the expectations of 6 to 18 months out, but with all the day traders and algorithms short term swings on daily news have become a thing. Same is happening in commodities. Oil dropped a whole bunch Friday, despite the fact there is a shortage of oil and Nat Gas that will be present for the rest of the winter, and recovered most of it this morning. My only advice, if you can trade some stocks on swings, great, but don't let this short term nonsense affect your major portfolio holdings.

On the good news front, Vermillion Oil has reinstated a 6% dividend and bought more production capacity that will provide almost as much free cash flow the first year as they paid for the assets. Peyto recently did the same, as did Shell. More and more Oil companies will be doing this so there is still soem very good upside in a lot of the names.

Vermilion Energy bringing back dividend, adds Corrib stake

By Noah Zivitz

Columnist image
Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

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Almost two years after suspending its dividend as oil prices plummeted, Vermilion Energy is about to bring back a payout to shareholders.

The Calgary-based oil and gas producer announced on Monday it's planning to start paying a six cent per-share dividend in April 2022.

The last time Vermilion paid a dividend was Apr. 15, 2020, when investors received 11.5 cents per share. Vermilion had subsequently planned to pay out another dividend at a reduced rate of two cents per share, but it instead halted all payments as crude oil prices collapsed in the early days of the pandemic.

The reinstated dividend was announced on Monday alongside news that Vermilion is buying Equnior ASA's Irish subsidiary, which holds a 36.5 stake in the Corrib natural gas field for US$434 million. Vermilion is already the operator of that project with a 20 per cent stake.

In a release, Vermilion said it expects the acquisition will add $361 million in free cash flow in 2022.

Vermilion said the deal with Equinor is expected to close in the second half of next year

[Dean2]

Correction to post above, I just noticed I said 6%, it should say 6 cents per share/quarter, which is about 2%. Sorry for any confusion.

I am watching the markets fairly closely. The TSX is 4% off its historical highs, the U.S. markets are off even more. Within those markets their are individual quality stocks that have come off 7-12%. There are some stocks getting into the range where picking up some high quality stocks for short term holds is becoming VERY attractive.

[Dean2]

So, who jumped on some of the great deals yesterday and what did you buy?

[fishtank]

added some enbridge problably add more down the road .

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by fishtank

added some enbridge problably add more down the road .

Funny part of that is I sold 50% of my ENB at 54, wish I had sold it all. Have held them for many years for the 6% dividend but am tired of riding the pony from 30-55 and back down again all the time. Long term Share Price performance SUCKS. I have decided it will be a trading stock from here on out. Buy around 40 sell over 52. Fairly easy to find a 4% dividend stock to replace it with a lot better upside trajectory. Other choice is to buy ZWU, which hold a lot of ENB, TRP etc collect to 8% dividend and then I can tolerate that lack of upside to the share price of ZWU

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Funny part of that is I sold 50% of my ENB at 54, wish I had sold it all. Have held them for many years for the 6% dividend but am tired of riding the pony from 35-60 and back down again all the time. Long term Share Price performance SUCKS. I have decided it will be a trading stock from here on out. Buy around 40 sell over 52. Fairly easy to find a 4% dividend stock to replace it with a lot better upside trajectory. Other choice is to buy ZWU, which hold a lot of ENB, TRP etc collect to 8% dividend and then I can tolerate that lack of upside to the share price of ZWU.

This might turn out be a swing trade if the price goes up abit. saw some news on michigan dropping the lawsuit. i had added ZWU since the last time it was mention and EIT .

[KGB]

Originally Posted by Dean2

So, who jumped on some of the great deals yesterday and what did you buy?

And it crashed again!

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by KGB

And it crashed again!

Really glad I sold everything off first thing this morning. Have been out since just after 8 and hadn't seen the drift into negative territory. Short term trading isn't for the faint of heart.

[bdub]

Waiting for -10%, spending 1/3 of cash, -20% another 1/3 etc.

Been a while since we’ve seen anything of a correction, we’re due.

[Dean2]

I wish I had been around yesterday just before close rather than sitting at the Transit eating mediocre BBQ. I would have bought back a bunch of stuff on the end of day drop. No deals at the open this morning, everything got pumped up in the over night market.

Originally Posted by bdub

Waiting for -10%, spending 1/3 of cash, -20% another 1/3 etc.

Been a while since we’ve seen anything of a correction, we’re due.

I'm not sitting on a real big cash position, except for the pot for short term trading. I don't see 10 and 20% happening any time soon and with inflation running north of 10%, cash is devaluing quick.

[EagleEyes]

I really enjoy this thread as a very novice trader. Thanks Dean2 for the vet tip. I bought and sold it for a 9 percent gain. Maybe more upside but it’s a win for me. Haha another real AO success story.

[KGB]

What a rollercoaster it has being for the past week! 1,5-2,5% swings up and down every day!

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by KGB

What a rollercoaster it has being for the past week! 1,5-2,5% swings up and down every day!

bigger swing if you have tech stocks.....

[fishtank]

Crypto are tanking as well....

[Immigrant]

How will the Kaisa and Evergrande collapse affect markets? What kind of exposure do Canadian banks have?

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Immigrant

How will the Kaisa and Evergrande collapse affect markets? What kind of exposure do Canadian banks have?

Might have more effect on crypto , rumours has it that tether stablecoin is back with Chinese Real estate debt collaterals .

I don’t see how some of these crypto can paid such highly interest and the Chinese debt bond has a 7-15% interest ...

[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishtank

bigger swing if you have tech stocks.....

Long duration crap getting taken to the woodshed. The narrative is changing imo. We’re in inning 2 of cash flows now vs cash flows ???, perhaps never years out.

Markets are stuck between two scenarios. Everyone is pricing in inflation. But I think they are unsure if growth is slowing or increasing in the next several months as the FED takes the foot off the pedal. Take your bets as they are two totally different scenarios for how you want to be positioned. Stagflation vs Lala land. The FED is terrified of the former, but they have a mandate and are stuck between a rock qnd a hard place.

[nelsonob1]

Originally Posted by Immigrant

How will the Kaisa and Evergrande collapse affect markets? What kind of exposure do Canadian banks have?

I think it will be confidence dominoes. The real estate market is already fragile. We do about 150 appraisals a month and 75% of that is refinancing residential mortgages. Up until August it was all about chasing low variables. Now it's all about converting to fixed. The consumer is worried about longer term affordability and hedging. Almost all real estate asset classes are overpriced based on cheap money. 2020/21 was not about cost, it was all about affordability. As rates rise values will retreat and the debate will be about equity erosion.

2022 and 2023 are going to be interesting times for those who bought at high loan to asset ratios in 2021.

[Sundancefisher]

https://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/

DOW looks down almost 1000 points currently. Monday will be interesting.

[fishnguy]

^ Yep. Bet you it isn’t all either.

[ractifes]

I had a very small percentage of my investments in stock, but I pulled my stocks a one month ago.i cant deal with the stress

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

^ Yep. Bet you it isn’t all either.

Lol

It improved a lot. Still down hard

[Dean2]

This volatility makes for some nice short term trading opportunities. Might as well take advantage of them. Everyone talks about buying low and selling high. It is very often the other way round with many retail investors.

[Twisted Canuck]

And all the talking heads say.....

https://financialpost.com/investing/...loff-out-there

And I say, relax. Enjoy the ride.