What is your feel on current economic outlook?

[fishtank]

OTTAWA — A new report from one of the world's most prestigious medical journals says Canada's failure to cut greenhouse-gas emissions isn't just killing the planet, it's killing Canadians.

The report on the health impacts of climate change, published Wednesday in The Lancet, concludes that successfully tackling climate change would be the single biggest thing governments can do to improve human health this century.

Somebody paying for these bs to be the news

[Jigger]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Somebody paying for these bs to be the news

A certain someone just allotted 600 million in incentives and tax breaks for certain news outlets. Google it to find out more since politics is taboo here.

New $600M aid package is 'antithesis​ of a free and independent press,' MP says

[graybeard]

It is not good to being a travesty..... IMHO

There are days I have to take a "time out" from listening/watching the news as I can't believe what our three levels of government are doing to us.

Nenshi is a handful at anyone time. Turdeau and Nutley are off their rockers.

IT IS VERY VERY BAD.....

[Husty]

My industry is steady so I feel fine. I graduated from school in 2009 right after the big crash, so business as usual for me. Always has been a dim outlook for my entire career so far.

Oil and gas will still be around for a while but it will never be what it once was. For example Frontier Oilsands will probably be the last large oil sands project ever if it goes through. Working downtown Calgary people act like its getting better. I just don't see it.. still seems just steady

[The Cook]

Originally Posted by graybeard

It is not good to being a travesty..... IMHO

There are days I have to take a "time out" from listening/watching the news as I can't believe what our three levels of government are doing to us.

Nenshi is a handful at anyone time. Turdeau and Nutley are off their rockers.

IT IS VERY VERY BAD.....

My recipe to keep the blood pressure down after 4pm
1-- Eat THC gummy

2-- Short double dark rum and coke

3--Do not watch the news

[big zeke]

The energy industry has been coaxed into chasing their tail in the form of rail cars and bitumen pucks as the Alberta economy bleeds every day and the crude buyers laugh themselves to sleep.

It will take time to build these rail cars and expand loading & offload facilities; this assumes we have rail capacity to move it. If it takes long enough most junior O&G will be dead and investors vanished, then office vacancy (currently well understated) will be 80%...talk about shrinking tax base.

The silly thing, while we chase these compensatory solutions, is that we HAVE a safe, viable answer, we just need the backbone to build it. Build the pipe, close the differentials then prosper...it's really that simple.

Or don't and watch Calgary (and most of Alberta) turn into a ghost town

How many days until the next election?
Zeke

[Scott h]

Quote; "Tighten your belts and stop buying stuff you can't afford to pay for"
That pretty much sums it up. In fact if most people followed that rule then a bit of a downturn like what is coming won't really have much effect. If you haven't followed it then this could really be a bad time.

[husky hunter]

Originally Posted by Eagle Trapper

Curious on what you think the next few months are lookin like out there. Currently drilling for CNRL, sounds iffy for the rest of the year and just as shakey coming out of the new year. Also to mention the gm plant out east. Perhaps I'm hoarding negatives but interested to see what your thoughts are.

As long as we are under a Socialist government (provincially and federally) as we are now there is no hope. Socialism has not work anywhere in the world so why do we keep trying it. We are partying on borrowed money.

[67ZL1]

I have a feeling that something bad in coming down the pipe... the last week I know of handfuls of people that were laid off from 4 different oil companies. Service companies will likely follow suit end of January to mid February.

[Austin]

Governmental Self induced recession

[Tom Pullings]

In other news, drama programs in Canadian schools are thriving!

[eric2381]

Build the pipelines! More than one. I can’t believe how stupid Canada as a whole has been

[hunterdan44]

Originally Posted by husky hunter

As long as we are under a Socialist government (provincially and federally) as we are now there is no hope. Socialism has not work anywhere in the world so why do we keep trying it. We are partying on borrowed money.

This, and build the pipeline. Canada has to become a friend to business and industry not a tax machine.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[59whiskers]

More cutthroat than ever. Live well within your means and keep your family as priority. Every man for himself.

[sewerrat]

Anyone hear this guys story on the Danielle Smith show yesterday? It is pretty sad.


Reality check time: This week, while the federal government had to be arm twisted into an emergency debate on the oil price crisis, oilpatch boss Dwayne was trying to figure out to tell 25% of his staff that they are laid off. Talk about a disconnect.

[Bushrat]

Been going downhill fast around here and getting worse..

https://globalnews.ca/video/4716583/...lk-oil-economy

[58thecat]

Peaks and valleys is all, every now and then thing kinda level off just to peak or fall......no worries here.

[KGB]

Sale of the houses is down. Prices are down. Inventory of houses for sale is up.
That is not a good sign for sure!

[fishtank]

https://www.motor1.com/news/282598/r...-ford-lay-off/

future look gloom for the auto industry ..

[Stinky Buffalo]

Originally Posted by big zeke

Or don't and watch Calgary (and most of Alberta) turn into a ghost town

...or turning into squalid ghettos...

[Bigwoodsman]

Our trucking and warehouse business is down 7 percent over 2017. Our hiring has been frozen for the time being. No plans for layoffs either. I don’t anticipate any increase till Q3 or Q4 2019.

Well be monitoring our spend and postpone whatever we can. While taking care of the necessities and looking after our people.

BW

[lmtada]

Usually my glass is half full. However auto industry rumours are not looking good.

$ $ $
“When GM restructured, punting 2,500 workers in the iconic Oshawa plant, it was a huge story. But that may be the just the start of an unwinding of our car business, despite the USMCA. Next up – Ford.

While the company disputes it, Morgan Stanley analysts are sticking with a report saying the company is about to axe 70,000 workers across its global platform in a $11 billion restructuring as it, too, gets ready for a future with fewer cars, more autonomous vehicles, electric models plus way fewer grunts on the assembly line and white shirts watching them. In the crosshairs might be the sprawling complex in Oakville where 4,500 people toil. Current production includes the Edge, Flex and two Lincoln somethings.

Let’s hope not. But lately I’ll believe almost anything.” Garth Turner - Greater Fool Blog

[SuperCub]

Originally Posted by bdub

Canada and especially Alberta is pretty much screwed due to poor governance.

Globally things are looking worse Imo.

The amount of government, personal, and corporate debt brought on by the low levels of interest rates is going to make the economy very sensitive to increasing rates and central banks are on the tightening path.

The majority of stock markets around the world are rolling over. Growth is slowing. Big markets like China are slowing.

Earnings in the US are artificially inflated due to government policy/taxcuts and are set to drop in the next couple quarters.

Tarrifs = tax on consumers.

Trump and his policies are very disruptive.

Emerging markets are suffering due to a strong US$, most of their debt is denominated in it.

Europe is a mess.

Then again who knows when we are trying to predict the future. Nobody know for certain but it sure seems to be looking like another slowdown coming. With debt levels where they are I think it may be another rough one.

The debt part of this equation is the biggest problem overall. We are up to our butts in debt mostly for stuff we really don't need.

[Deer Hunter]

Are there any industries in Canada that are growing?
Agriculture?

[bdub]

Watching the yield curve narrowing and finally inverting on the US 3-5 and 2-5 yr doesn't bode well looking forward. The 2-10 spread has been narrowing as well and not far from inverting. The market seems to be telling us things are possibly about to get worse.

Residential investment down 6% YOY in Canada, light vehicle sales down 9%. That makes up a pretty big chunk of the economy. Globally things everywhere are slowing down or turning negative. Manufacturing data is coming in week in many countries.

BOC holds off on an rate increase today and sounds pretty dovish. The market in the US is pricing out the FEDs rate hikes going forward.

Getting to be interesting times here for sure. We are long overdue for the end of the cycle historically.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by SuperCub

The debt part of this equation is the biggest problem overall. We are up to our butts in debt mostly for stuff we really don't need.

I agree completely, and it makes us (as in every one, corporations, government and individuals) super sensitive to increases in interest rates. I wouldn't be surprised if the data coming out doesn't show we are already in recession or darn close.

[Sloughsharkjigger]

Originally Posted by bdub

I agree completely, and it makes us (as in every one, corporations, government and individuals) super sensitive to increases in interest rates. I wouldn't be surprised if the data coming out doesn't show we are already in recession or darn close.

World wide economy is human driven... should it turn left... right... stay straight... climb up or drill down... what’s right. Only the very few will ever set the direction.

[wolf308]

Idk but I'm in dire straights.

Used now $6000 I had set aside cause last 2 months and now this one looking really grim for the patch.

Throwing out resumes and online resumes. No bites. Really frustrating.

Ewww but get 2 days in the shop starting tomorrow..... not much , but I'll take it

[fishtank]

the beginning ...market are jittery for new round of diplomacy between China and the USA , and Canada just became a pawn.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canad...225626968.html

According time to news source. She is also the the daughter of the founder of huawei ( they are on the same scale as Apple and Samsung in sales #). It’s a pretty big deal and the market are reacting to what China might do as retaliation.

[fishtank]

economic outlook for alberta is going to be BAD next year.... lot of business are going belly up or they are cutting back to keep afloat .

CNRL cutting $1 billion(20%) off their 2019 budget...

There have been some recent questions as to why I have asked Rosa to send articles and updates to all Bellatrix staff in regards to the current state of affairs in the Energy Industry. The Energy Industry in Canada has been targeted for many years by special interest groups, primarily outside of Canada and most notably from the US, that want to shut down our industry. They are doing this for their own personnel gain while wrapping it in the cloak of environmentalism. Unfortunately our own Federal Liberal Government is helping to aid them in this process with Bill 69. As has been made aware in the media, Canadians are losing upwards of $50 Billion per year in revenue, of which $15 Billion in royalties and taxes would go to the Government, because we cannot receive a fair price for our oil & gas. The main benefactors of this depressed pricing is the US.

My goal is to educate and provide information. I am not suggesting to you on how to vote or what to do. But I believe it is my responsibility, and yours, to understand what is happening and to make others aware. I care about the future of our great nation, continuing to provide jobs and opportunities, and building a strong nation for our children.

Take the time, understand the issues, and then proceed on what you believe is the right path forward.

The e-mail below is from the CEO of Birchcliff Energy. I personally know Jeff. He cares deeply about this Nation, his family, and his employees also. That is why he is taking the time to get this message out and make people aware. It only takes 10 seconds to hit the link below and send a message to the Senators that are thinking about approving this bill (C-69) that the Liberals are trying to ram through parliament.
Feel free to send this on to anyone else you think might support this.

Brent Eshleman
President & CEO
Bellatrix Exploration

Team
Good Morning, I hope all of you had a great weekend.
It is our view that if Bill 69 is passed by Justin Trudeau’s Government, it is highly likely that no new pipelines will ever be approved much less built in Canada. It is incredible that we are in this situation but we are.

The Bill creates the Canadian Energy Regulator, which replaces the National Energy Board, and creates the new Impact Assessment Act. The Impact Assessment Act broadens the matters to be considered when building a pipeline and would include such items as health and socio economic factors, the review of environmental concerns as a result of downstream emissions , diversity and the ability for indigenous groups to STOP a process versus being consulted.
The application process would take so long no Company will risk their money or time to tackle the new application process. Oh yes , the federal government has set aside $74.6m to set up the new agency and regulatory processes.

At a recent CAPP meeting Rich Kruger, CEO of Imperial Oil, indicated that under the proposed legislation , if passed, Imperial would not invest any more money in Canada. His statement was made not as a threat but in response to a question respecting the proposed legislation and the effect of new investment in Canada.
I or any member of the Executive would be pleased to discuss the bill with any of you.

Please follow the 3 steps below which will allow you to send a letter to the senators who are currently considering this matter. It takes 10 seconds.
Go to this hyperlink: https://www.energycitizens.ca/c_69_letter_to_senators Enter their details into the form (name/email/postal code)Leave the box checked to receive email updates
Hit the send now button.

Thanks for your time.
Do not hesitate to share this e-mail with any one of your colleagues, friends or family. If you like your current standard of living send the letters NOW.
On behalf of the Executive

Jeff Tonken
President & CEO
Birchcliff Energy Ltd.
1000, 600-3rd Ave SW
Calgary, Alberta T2P 0G5
Office: (403) 261-6410