What is your feel on current economic outlook?

[Eagle Trapper]

Curious on what you think the next few months are lookin like out there. Currently drilling for CNRL, sounds iffy for the rest of the year and just as shakey coming out of the new year. Also to mention the gm plant out east. Perhaps I'm hoarding negatives but interested to see what your thoughts are.

[Austin]

I was curious too and found this from RBC. Select the province and see their speculative forecast.

http://www.rbc.com/economics/economi...forecasts.html

I don't have an opinion so I at times rely on professionals?

[jstubbs]

In theory WCS should be raising a bit soon as they’re getting a ton of rail capacity online. Big crude surplus in Hardisty though.

[CBintheNorth]

I think the immediate future is pretty dim, especially in the energy sector.
A lot of our customers had boasted about how busy they were going to be this winter and have since had most of their work get cancelled. The stuff that will proceed is being re-negotiated for lower rates. Starting to remind me of 2016...
And if you're not in the energy sector, stand by, Windfall is usually felt 1-2 years after the energy sector feels it.
I don't think the bleeding is over unfortunately... especially the way our resources are being managed by every political level.

[Drewski Canuck]

Interest rate hikes were threatened to cool the housing industry in 2 major centers (That's right, Canada suffers to cap Toronto and Vancouver Housing Bubbles).

Governments on all levels are broke and badly in debt so increased interest rates will add to the tax burden for all of us.

Neo Nafta fallout sees more manufacturing leaving Canada and US.

Gee, and then the heavy oil gets slaughtered.

All the while global money flocks to the US.

Yes we are in trouble.

Now that the Easterners have figured out that they need western oil dollars to tax, and spend, there will be something done to get the oil to the Coast, but not in the next few years anyway.

Drewski

[DiabeticKripple]

december is dead for us on the frac side, Q1 2019 is flat out but after that who knows

[tbiddy]

Where I’m working, they are drilling the wells but not fracking them till price increases. Sounds like 2019 will be the same as 2018 for one company. All the heavy oil stuff I was looking after appears to be done till Q3 2019. The Viking oil stuff apparently will click along.

[dmcbride]

Things are going to get worse before they get better, we are living in a deficit fueled economy with a record amount of foreign investment fleeing the country in 2017.

[bdub]

Canada and especially Alberta is pretty much screwed due to poor governance.

Globally things are looking worse Imo.

The amount of government, personal, and corporate debt brought on by the low levels of interest rates is going to make the economy very sensitive to increasing rates and central banks are on the tightening path.

The majority of stock markets around the world are rolling over. Growth is slowing. Big markets like China are slowing.

Earnings in the US are artificially inflated due to government policy/taxcuts and are set to drop in the next couple quarters.

Tarrifs = tax on consumers.

Trump and his policies are very disruptive.

Emerging markets are suffering due to a strong US$, most of their debt is denominated in it.

Europe is a mess.

Then again who knows when we are trying to predict the future. Nobody know for certain but it sure seems to be looking like another slowdown coming. With debt levels where they are I think it may be another rough one.

[jstubbs]

Any predictions on the next bubble to burst? lol

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by bdub

Canada and especially Alberta is pretty much screwed due to poor governance.

Globally things are looking worse Imo.

The amount of government, personal, and corporate debt brought on by the low levels of interest rates is going to make the economy very sensitive to increasing rates and central banks are on the tightening path.

The majority of stock markets around the world are rolling over. Growth is slowing. Big markets like China are slowing.

Earnings in the US are artificially inflated due to government policy/taxcuts and are set to drop in the next couple quarters.

Tarrifs = tax on consumers.

Trump and his policies are very disruptive.

Emerging markets are suffering due to a strong US$, most of their debt is denominated in it.

Europe is a mess.

Then again who knows when we are trying to predict the future. Nobody know for certain but it sure seems to be looking like another slowdown coming. With debt levels where they are I think it may be another rough one.

That ^ about covers it. US and world markets got their typical October sell off and correction, but recovery will probably be slower. Too much uncertainty with Trump volatility, tariffs, brexit....Canada has become very unfriendly for business investment, capital is fleeing, record high personal and government debts, corporations sitting on cash if they have it ...enjoy the downturn.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by jstubbs

Any predictions on the next bubble to burst? lol

I would say Bitcoin is done, pot stocks is arguable but most likely done, FANG type stocks maybe in the process. Corporate credit maybe and equities in general next but who knows.

[powersteve]

Short to medium term my outlook is negative. Long term my outlook is positive if Trump and his policies continue, negative if he gets ousted and his policies are reverted (although that might be positive in the short to medium term).

[fishtank]

its ok leaning towards bad.. but it could be worst . wait til the effect of the usa/china trade war and the european brexit and debt kicks in .

business wise there been a drop in income and spending ... and workers hour are getting trim .

canada economic outlook will improve once the big snowflakes melts away in the next election.

[Vovchyk]

For the long run, any ideas if investing into pension funds is a good idea?

[lmtada]

Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck

That ^ about covers it. US and world markets got their typical October sell off and correction, but recovery will probably be slower. Too much uncertainty with Trump volatility, tariffs, brexit....Canada has become very unfriendly for business investment, capital is fleeing, record high personal and government debts, corporations sitting on cash if they have it ...enjoy the downturn.

Agree 100%. Discussing sales at local truck dealership. Was going to be good year for him. Then cancelled pipe line in September. Sales stopped Immediately. Sums up AB economy. Calgary been on fire last couple weeks. Cancelled Olympics, First place Pacific NHL division, and Grey Cup.

[32-40win]

Last few recessions it was a case of stick around and ride it out. Don't have the 5 yrs or so that will take to do that this time around. So it'll be take whatever hit there is to take and go retire somewhere. I think some folk will take a hit on housing prices over the next while anyway, if Trudeau gets re-elected it'll be the banks and housing taking a hit from companies folding their house in Canada. Banks could own a lot of newer housing if they raise interest too much more, they know that though. There could be an exodus of primary and secondary manufacturing with the current policies the feds are pushing. Third tier service businesses won't have much business if that occurs, and there are a pile of those in this country. Pretty clear the Liberal gov't intends to start the snowball. And it won't recover til the last year of a different gov't being elected next year, at best, assuming they manage to get a majority that can correct this garbage, also assuming they get at it right away and change the investment outlook.

[KGB]

Originally Posted by vovchyk

for the long run, any ideas if investing into pension funds is a good idea?

noooooo!

[The Cook]

If you listen very closely you will hear the sound of toilets flushing. That is the sound of our economy for the next 11 months.

[The Cook]

oops

[German]

Originally Posted by KGB

noooooo!

Silver is around a 2 year low.

[oyster_777]

On top of just issuing a hiring freeze CNRL just cancelled 1 billion of 4 billion dollars of work for next year... i dont think they are done cutting.

[lmtada]

Want ideas what is current in Economies of the World, Canada. Don’t want to follow Markets.
Here couple links

Zerohedge.com
Armstrongeconomics.com/blog
Greaterfool.ca (Canadian content)


https://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/11/28/14747/


Sent from my iPad

There are many more.

Cheers
PB43

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by German

Silver is around a 2 year low.

I've been quite surprised by the downward trend actually, am thinking about maybe doing some (more) stacking. Silver won't be low forever, but I've been saying that for quite a while now. Kind of like natural gas prices can't stay low forever but they are...

[Purple Farmer]

Timely thread OP, many of these have come and gone over the years, here is my take.

Now is a time for defence, a time to protect, not just your portfolio, but, also your other assets and most importantly your family. CASH waiting to be deployed in earnest comes next, look for opportunities in investments that you understand.

The tied sales person at your bank is not your friend, you may have known them for years and received a good return, but they are just a sales person, they are not a money manager and frankly they are currently facing lay offs and higher goals for 2019 than ever before.

If you have lots of money already, you don't need advice on what is about to happen. You already know and have prepared.

Twisted, some of my most fun days have been with NatGAS futures, but, I won't tell you what I lost!

My best investments have always been land, no exception.

Tighten your belts and stop buying stuff you can't afford to pay for, look after your family first.

[Whipper Billy]

From the RBC link
Alberta is in position to be the growth leader ..... Stronger oil prices are a clearly positive development keeping the recovery on track.

For me - Dim view for Alberta & Canada

CEO Michael H. McCain
Maple Leaf Foods closing 3 Ont plants & opening 1 in London
Ont giving 34.5 million
Feds giving 28 million

Bill Morneau Federal Finance Minister
Spouse: Nancy McCain

[^v^Tinda wolf^v^]

It seems to be a vicious cycle over the past decade and to top it off we all start saving, me included and don’t buy those simple items that make the next person their wage and it drags it down even further. This pipeline should have been built in 2016 when all the highly skilled labour were loosing everything they spent their lives building. Those of us that squeaked by then might not be so lucky if this happens again so close to the last go around. That pipeline should have been done in 2008 never mind 2016. On a positive note, we are a strong province and we have weathered many storms, this is just another bump on the road.
These threads stir the pot and get everyone all worked up and the same thing happens in the work place. Take a chill pill people it’s almost Christmas. Be thankful for what you have right now.

[Habfan]

Originally Posted by Whipper Billy

From the RBC link
Alberta is in position to be the growth leader ..... Stronger oil prices are a clearly positive development keeping the recovery on track.

For me - Dim view for Alberta & Canada

CEO Michael H. McCain
Maple Leaf Foods closing 3 Ont plants & opening 1 in London
Ont giving 34.5 million
Feds giving 28 million

Bill Morneau Federal Finance Minister
Spouse: Nancy McCain

Brand New automated facility ! Lots of chicken cold cuts ! 3 plants closing and 1 replacing. Loss of labour estimated at 300 employees! Our Government pays big $ to unemploy people ?

[bdub]

Another sign of the disfunction in the economy is showing up when you look at your paycheck. Wage growth is falling while cost of debt, cost of taxes, cost of living/inflation is taking a bigger and bigger share of each paycheck.

Your thoughts on being thankful are a good reminder Tinda, lots of countries around the world where people have it worse.

A guy hates to think of it, but a person has to consider the potential for a serious conflict somewhere due to economic malaise worldwide. At least as part of a worst case scenario. Seems like there are lots of parallels between the Great Depression and the Great Recession.

[6.5 shooter]

True due 1 hyper inflation, record double digit interest rates, record unemployment.

Turd'o2 same same only much worse