Alberta real estate

[shootermcgavin]

Any real estate gurus on here? My girlfriend and I are looking to buy a house together in Calgary. We have been trying to value a few properties that have been up for sale in the last few months and I have been expecting real estate values to decrease. To my surprise they have actually been increasing! WTF is going on... My theory is that if the real estate in Calgary was over valued based on the strong economy based on oil and gas then shouldn't the properties have been going down quite a bit? Comparing to within a few years or more when there was seemingly nothing but prosperous times on the horizon to now where there is not much at all then why have they not gone down? Is it just a waiting game at this point?

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by shootermcgavin

Any real estate gurus on here? My girlfriend and I are looking to buy a house together in Calgary. We have been trying to value a few properties that have been up for sale in the last few months and I have been expecting real estate values to decrease. To my surprise they have actually been increasing! WTF is going on... My theory is that if the real estate in Calgary was over valued based on the strong economy based on oil and gas then shouldn't the properties have been going down quite a bit? Comparing to within a few years or more when there was seemingly nothing but prosperous times on the horizon to now where there is not much at all then why have they not gone down? Is it just a waiting game at this point?

If I was trying to get into the market I would be actively looking but I wouldn't even consider buying anything till something really changes in the job market.

[justsomeguy]

Wait as its too soon in the cycle. Late summer will be best option.

[Talking moose]

Originally Posted by Scott h

If I was trying to get into the market I would be actively looking but I wouldn't even consider buying anything till something really changes in the job market.

Like half the oil sector losing there jobs?

[qmurphy]

From what I've been led to believe, the decline in values is not going to be as dramatic as you might expect. Was speaking with a fellow who used to own an appraisal company, and his estimate was that you can expect prices to drop 10%, which is what they had seen in te 80's. I'm not sure if it is an apples to apples comparison or not.

[ESOXangler]

The thing is it's not actually that bad here. Thousands have lost their jobs no doubt but out unemployment is only slightly higher than nation average. And home values are pretty close to national average too. Sure in butt nowhere Canada you can get a beautiful house for 250000 bit any major city centre prices are pretty close to albertas.

I'm not saying it's good here! Al in saying is we've caught up to the rest of the country.

[Canehdianman]

Prices have dropped, but mostly in higher end homes (600-900k). Starter homes are still selling so prices haven't dropped much.

[I_forget]

Very low interest rates will prevent house prices from dropping drastically. Oil seems to have bottomed. Who knows, we might look back in a few years and realize 1st quarter 2016 was the time to buy.

[Don K]

Realistically you might see another 3-5% drop in houses 500k-900k and maybe 5-7% in the 900k+ range. There's a decent market still for the sub $500k priced homes and they will likely hood and slowly increase as the year goes on, maybe a couple points by years end. Sometime between now and mid summer I'd suggest would be the best time to get into market. Low interest rates are making it WAY easier for people to cope with things.

[79ford]

Low rates and the governments CMHC insuring mortgages with paultry down payments will keep housing some what alive.

My bank would rather loan me 600k with 10% down than me get a 400k place with more than 20% down. Those banks love CMHC

[lannie]

If I was looking to buy a house I would not buy before Dec 15.

[Big Grey Wolf]

In the 80,s we had twice the job losses that we have had in this oil slump. Prices dropped around 30%. Hope we dont have the same long down turn. Alberta shut down in the 80,s. Economy is more diversified now, lots of construction keeping things moving. The used home market showing significant price reduction especially in Calgary. The new home market with low interest rates the builders can hang on to their inventory longer, in the 80,s interest rates were 20%.

[spirit4u]

I watch house prices on mls for fun and just to see movement. One older house in High river that I know was renovated went from $350 to 319 and now is sitting at 310. was looking at a foreclosure house has gone from 240 down to 229 in another town. Some listings the price doesn't even move. Prices are coming down, you just don't see it on a weekly basis. One site I found actually shows the DOM, when the house gets relisted lower it drops to zero DOM. A good realtor working for you will be able to tell you the whole history of the listed property.

[The Elkster]

One can debate how much RE prices will drop until the cows come home. Nobody can say how much but the current price trend is obvious. Looking at the fundamentals (rampant job losses of big money jobs across the province) there is no way I'd be looking to pull the trigger at this point. Way more room to move to the downside. Increasingly the unemployed are going to run out of money and have no choice but to liquidate in a weak market. In good times prices are set by those who CHOOSE to sell increasingly the market going forward is going to be set by those guys who HAVE to sell. That is deal time.

I probably wouldn't even start looking with a realtor as most people will get emotional about a house purchase and buy when they shouldn't based on a realtor hitting the right buttons. I am a calm rational guy and even I found house hunting quite emotional and easy to fall into the idea that a certain house won't come along again...Tip: they always do) Women are specially susceptible to house horniness so keep your GF away from realtors for now.

Keep your powder dry and do some homework on the type of house you really want. Then passively watch the market through MLS and FSBO sites. Don't listen to the RE announcements about price changes as their stats are padded. Be aware that realtors remove a listing then repost at lower prices as a new listing to avoid showing full price drops so its difficult to determine real (full) price declines unless you are really following specific places day to day and month to month. Try to monitor a suite of houses in your price range from various areas you'd consider living and track the asking price over time. Might be good to build a spreadsheet and update regularly. Keep in mind a house disappearing from MLS for a time doesn't mean it is sold. Keep watching for an ad reset.

If you've done your homework then you'll be prepared to comfortably pull the trigger at any time. Even if oil prices turn around don't fret too much as companies aren't going to start hiring right away so you have some time to get the deal done near the bottom whatever that turns out to be.

Good luck!

PS this type of homework can be a PITA but consider the potential savings involved. If it means a 50-100k savings that equates to a LOT of work hours saved later.

[JimPS]

Originally Posted by qmurphy

From what I've been led to believe, the decline in values is not going to be as dramatic as you might expect. Was speaking with a fellow who used to own an appraisal company, and his estimate was that you can expect prices to drop 10%, which is what they had seen in te 80's. I'm not sure if it is an apples to apples comparison or not.

Realtors and appraisers try to put a positive spin on everything.

In the 80`s prices dropped in half. That`s why people just walked away from their places.

Smart folks with some kahoonas and a few bucks would pick up 3 or 4 condos at half price, rent them out and flip them in a couple of years and make a lot of money.

It`s a renters market out there right now - hold off on buying until prices come down. It won`t be just the mansions that take a hit - it will be everything - just like it was in the 80`s.

[79ford]

I think it takes awhile longer to get the full down draft in, we are really only one year into the 30-50$ oil and the cuts being made to budgets this year are brutal.... most of last year everyone was hoping and looking for the bounce back, this year is reality finally setting in and it ll take probably a bit longer before distresss starts to take hold of the market.

I look at sales and days on market.... sales are down around 40% from 2014 and days on market are really starting to shoot up this year after not really moving much in 2015.

With sales down over 40% and days on market climbing its just a matter of time before prices start budging more to get properties sold. Some people i work with have bought in the last year and they usually get 30k off the sticker price or so.

There is some headway being made for those that are patient and not panicky

[josey]

Originally Posted by The Elkster

One can debate how much RE prices will drop until the cows come home. Nobody can say how much but the current price trend is obvious. Looking at the fundamentals (rampant job losses of big money jobs across the province) there is no way I'd be looking to pull the trigger at this point. Way more room to move to the downside. Increasingly the unemployed are going to run out of money and have no choice but to liquidate in a weak market. In good times prices are set by those who CHOOSE to sell increasingly the market going forward is going to be set by those guys who HAVE to sell. That is deal time.

I probably wouldn't even start looking with a realtor as most people will get emotional about a house purchase and buy when they shouldn't based on a realtor hitting the right buttons. I am a calm rational guy and even I found house hunting quite emotional and easy to fall into the idea that a certain house won't come along again...Tip: they always do) Women are specially susceptible to house horniness so keep your GF away from realtors for now.

Keep your powder dry and do some homework on the type of house you really want. Then passively watch the market through MLS and FSBO sites. Don't listen to the RE announcements about price changes as their stats are padded. Be aware that realtors remove a listing then repost at lower prices as a new listing to avoid showing full price drops so its difficult to determine real (full) price declines unless you are really following specific places day to day and month to month. Try to monitor a suite of houses in your price range from various areas you'd consider living and track the asking price over time. Might be good to build a spreadsheet and update regularly. Keep in mind a house disappearing from MLS for a time doesn't mean it is sold. Keep watching for an ad reset.

If you've done your homework then you'll be prepared to comfortably pull the trigger at any time. Even if oil prices turn around don't fret too much as companies aren't going to start hiring right away so you have some time to get the deal done near the bottom whatever that turns out to be.

Good luck!

PS this type of homework can be a PITA but consider the potential savings involved. If it means a 50-100k savings that equates to a LOT of work hours saved later.

Exactly what we are doing. Patience is key. It's tough but I think there is enough at stake to play the game.

[reddeerhunter]

Originally Posted by lannie

If I was looking to buy a house I would not buy before Dec 15.

This

[shootermcgavin]

Thanks for the replies..

Why not before Dec 15? what is it about that date that makes you think that?

[Headdamage]

EI runs out Dec 15th?

[Domestique]

Originally Posted by justsomeguy

Wait as its too soon in the cycle. Late summer will be best option.

And what crystal ball you get this from?

[Domestique]

Originally Posted by 79ford

I think it takes awhile longer to get the full down draft in, we are really only one year into the 30-50$ oil and the cuts being made to budgets this year are brutal.... most of last year everyone was hoping and looking for the bounce back, this year is reality finally setting in and it ll take probably a bit longer before distresss starts to take hold of the market.

I look at sales and days on market.... sales are down around 40% from 2014 and days on market are really starting to shoot up this year after not really moving much in 2015.

With sales down over 40% and days on market climbing its just a matter of time before prices start budging more to get properties sold. Some people i work with have bought in the last year and they usually get 30k off the sticker price or so.

There is some headway being made for those that are patient and not panicky

And in my area listings are increasing. A perfect storm for the buyer.

I will also add that it is a great time to upgrade if that's your thing. The $600K + market is getting beaten.

[justsomeguy]

Originally Posted by Domestique

And what crystal ball you get this from?

So maybe not late summer, more like late fall.....

Bulk of layoffs happened mid last year, severance and EI will run out by mid this year. If oil has not at least stabilized there will continue to be layoffs and most folks will start to look out of province when they accepted the boom and lots of jobs are not coming back anytime soon.

If oil goes much lower there will be a significant hit to the oil sands companies as they will be under water on costs and another round of head office cuts will come.

Most families with kids prefer to move in the summer when the kids are out of school. Come spring there is going to be a flood of houses on the market at they begin looking elsewhere. As we get into fall folks will begin dropping prices in order to sell and move on with their lives before they have to go through another winter, and further houses coming onto the market from this years round of layoffs, and the rumours start when 2017 budgets get set in head office and another round of cuts comes.

Or trump (sub in Syria, Iran, Russia, Saudi, Israel) takes over and starts something and oils over $100 by year end and the boom is back....who knows, let's be honest were all just pulling these opinions out of our butts, only one who knows when this ends is Saudi oil minister.

[paint]

real estate is sticky, the best bargains may be 2 years out yet. Thinking of the early 80's.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Talking moose

Like half the oil sector losing there jobs?

Well it's probably just started. Most of those laid off are still collecting EI but that will change in the coming months/years. It's fine to be unemployed while collecting enough EI to pay the mortgage but what happens when that runs out? A few months until the Visa is run up and then you start missing mortgage payments. Those trying to sell right now WANT to sell, which is a big difference than HAVING to sell when you can't pay your mortgage and have to move to try and find another job. If this drags on people will be trying to sell for what's stilled owed on their mortgages (think 2008 USA or 1980s Alberta). If I was looking to get into the market I would be sitting on the sidelines watching and waiting cause I don't believe the overall market is even close to the bottom. Have you seen how much equipment has been, and is still being sold off to out of province/country buyers? Oil ain't going up any time soon.

[deerguy]

Get a prenup. And when you buy the house have her pay you monthly by cheque with the word RENT written on it. Will prevent you from getting screwed over when it all ends.

[Wild&Free]

Originally Posted by deerguy

Get a prenup. And when you buy the house have her pay you monthly by cheque with the word RENT written on it. Will prevent you from getting screwed over when it all ends.

imo, that amount of lack of trust will only hasten the end.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by deerguy

Get a prenup. And when you buy the house have her pay you monthly by cheque with the word RENT written on it. Will prevent you from getting screwed over when it all ends.

If this is a consideration , don't get married.

[TBD]

Originally Posted by justsomeguy

So maybe not late summer, more like late fall.....

Bulk of layoffs happened mid last year, severance and EI will run out by mid this year. If oil has not at least stabilized there will continue to be layoffs and most folks will start to look out of province when they accepted the boom and lots of jobs are not coming back anytime soon.

If oil goes much lower there will be a significant hit to the oil sands companies as they will be under water on costs and another round of head office cuts will come.

Most families with kids prefer to move in the summer when the kids are out of school. Come spring there is going to be a flood of houses on the market at they begin looking elsewhere. As we get into fall folks will begin dropping prices in order to sell and move on with their lives before they have to go through another winter, and further houses coming onto the market from this years round of layoffs, and the rumours start when 2017 budgets get set in head office and another round of cuts comes.

Or trump (sub in Syria, Iran, Russia, Saudi, Israel) takes over and starts something and oils over $100 by year end and the boom is back....who knows, let's be honest were all just pulling these opinions out of our butts, only one who knows when this ends is Saudi oil minister.

... the only thing that is going to turn this around is higher oil prices, unless the gov't reduces it's spending drastically lowers taxes.

[winged1]

Originally Posted by deerguy

Get a prenup. And when you buy the house have her pay you monthly by cheque with the word RENT written on it. Will prevent you from getting screwed over when it all ends.

I'd recommend better legal advise than this.