Financial Markets Meltdown

[Map Maker]

Originally Posted by Map Maker

Its getting closer to my buy in price.

My bid at $29.05 hit so I am now “in with Zim”.

2 weeks ago when it was at $36, I did some calcs and my estimate that $29.05 is a fire sale book value.
Now I look at the charts and feel it can go lower.
Numbers haven’t changed, just my sentiment.

But I’m in now, so hope this isn’t another Dry shops fiasco and I make a tidy profit. I’ll re-evaluate next quarterly.

[fishtank]

So assuming the 75 bp raise by the fed is baked in for tomorrow. Unless we get surprise … new 52 week lows ahead

[whitetail Junkie]

Originally Posted by fishtank

So assuming the 75 bp raise by the fed is baked in for tomorrow. Unless we get surprise … new 52 week lows ahead

When the fed speaks the market always reacts ...I figure a 1% raise is likely possible.

[IronNoggin]

Nearly a quarter of Canadians cutting back on food purchases amid high inflation

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/near...rvey-1.6075952

[IronNoggin]

Fed raises rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, pledges more hikes to fight inflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/fed-...ber-2022-.html

[roper1]

Wonder if the recession is here ? Doesn't seem yet, traffic on the roads very busy yet. Sounds like City traffic nuts also. That will change.

[pikeman06]

Holy looks like a black Friday of sorts. I might finally get to see my 18000 point tsx. That's my personal trigger point to buy in. It's been close but never actually hit 18000

[fishtank]

Index Making new 52 weeks lows … looks like time to average down again, 2 more hikes this year, the last one fed might finally ready to ripped off the band aid .

[DiabeticKripple]

Yikes i shouldn’t have looked today.

It drives me insane that a week of gains always gets lost in one bad day. Market reacts way harder to bad news. But that’s trading and you only lose if you sell!

[KGB]

Lots of analysts mentioning today that we are in the recession….
Crap, it’s hard to watch the bloodbath….

[Dean2]

Ever since being told on the mod thread that long time contributors aren't valued by this forum I have taken them at their word and have been signed out and not posting, however market conditions are such that I feel compelled to post my thought on this particular thread only. I have made over 280 posts on this thread and my message has remained consistent from the start.

I am personally working on the assumption that we are headed for B of C interest rates above 7%, inflation is not going to get below 5% any time soon, the Canadian dollar is headed to 70 cents, Europe is going to be a poop show over the winter, energy prices are on their way up and we are going to see a recession. If you bought quality, dividend paying stocks, just ride out the storm. Even holding all Blue Chip, Dividend stocks it is really hard to see the portfolio drop 3.5% in one day, but you have to remember we are still up over 11% from 12 months ago. However, If you bought any flakey, higher risk stuff, turn around plays, re-opening plays etc I hope you had stop losses in place.

Re-opening plays - Carnival cruise lines is on the verge of bankruptcy. 72 of the 92 ships that have to report disease outbreaks to CDC have infection rates above the threshold that requires CDC to investigate them. They have more than a dollar of debt for every dollar of assets, and they continue to borrow to cover operating losses and interest payments. Norwegian is right behind them on the Bankruptcy trail.

Airlines can't find staff, fuel prices are through the roof and operating costs are too.

Shipping companies - ZIM in particular, is still headed down hard and there is not support till it hits 10 bucks.. They have not announced the next dividend, it could easily be zero or any amount above that. You also have to consider the 25% withholding tax and the work you need to do if you want to get around that. Like I said a couple of times before, I will not even consider buying in till after the next dividend in formalised. All the shipping companies are seeing their shipping rates dropping and operating costs climbing.

If you bought Tech stocks that were priced at Pandemic levels, they are headed back to pre-pandemic levels. I have been watching Nvidia for a while, they are down to $126 and headed to $45, which is their pre-pandemic trading range.

Companies that over expanded - Parkland Corp is a prime example - It has 1.30 in debt for every dollar of hard assets. Over 3 billion of their 11 Billion in assets is Goodwill. The debt they have taken on buying out all these other companies is far over what they should have. On top of that the companies they added are not sufficiently accretive to earnings.

REITS continue to be a mixed bag. Higher interest rates are not good for their Cap rates, NAV values (I.e. property values are dropping) etc but apartment rentals are going up as is the rent on Industrial property. Office vacancy in Toronto and Vancouver is still a major issue and the rental rates for class A properties is dropping. I have less than 1% of the portfolio in REITS right now. Like I said before, I sold them down quite a while back after they popped quite a bit.

Insurance companies are not the place to be in a recession and with the elevated rates of disasters, deaths etc.

Today is not the day to be selling anything, but if my portfolio needed to be re-balanced I would be watching for days of relatively better strength to move the dogs out.

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by Dean2

Ever since being told on the mod thread that long time contributors aren't valued by this forum I have taken them at their word and have been signed out and not posting

Fair, but unfortunate. I was talking about the exact same thing in that very thread.

Originally Posted by Dean2

Europe is going to be a poop show over the winter

Or worse.

Germany’s energy sector is going bankrupt in its entirety, pretty much. From Reuters: Exclusive: Germany in talks over urgent help for regional energy providers - sources

I knew Truss was incompetent and she has proven to be so. Britain went full retard and it is going to end badly, very, imo. Again from Reuters: Britain sends investors fleeing with historic tax cuts and borrowing

They are completely nuts and have no clue about basic economics, or so it appears. Which seems to be the trend among many governments currently.

[ehrgeiz]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

Haha, so good, so true!

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by ehrgeiz

Haha, so good, so true!

I think Germany has went pass that…. Just to show follow the leaders

[eric2381]

Thanks for your thoughts Dean. Appreciated. Your thoughts are aligned with mine.

[EagleEyes]

Thanks for posting Dean and everyone else. I value the long time contributors here very much. I don't post often but enjoy this forum and check up on it daily. Although I didn't follow the mod thread as I try to stay away from the politics of AO I truly am thankful for the the info you and others have contributed. Be it stocks or the wool pants am rocking this fall hunting season. Am sure am not the only one in this boat either so again thanks for your time and posts!

[doublehaul]

Thanks Dean2
X3
Same as above, I read it all

[The Elkster]

I always find it interesting when the mantra "you can't time the market" comes out yet those same people will shift in and out of markets all the time based on various things, hopefully, mostly underlying fundamentals. A better mantra would be "do not let emotions dictate buy and sell decisions". You very much can optimize investments by timing markets. Timing markets = getting out of sectors that have run up to unsustainable levels and buying sectors that are at historically better valuations. It may also mean moving a decent chunk of money to safe havens when a large market wide correction is inevitable...like when a rather large increase in interest rates is telegraphed during a time the economy was being driven to unsustainable heights by debt fueled purchasing. Who could have seen this coming?

[fishtank]

The British pounds tanking more then 4% today , might spread into the stocks ….

[Pixel Shooter]

Curious to what everyone’s thoughts are on where we will see how low the indexes will go ie Dow/ S&P / Tsx

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by Pixel Shooter

Curious to what everyone’s thoughts are on where we will see how low the indexes will go ie Dow/ S&P / Tsx

It seem like a New 52 week lows every month . Pretty sure s&p going to breach 3500 in the short terms. Google Ceo seem to be more cautious and making some cut backs on outlook , assuming they are a step ahead with their data analytics .

[Buckhead]

Originally Posted by Pixel Shooter

Curious to what everyone’s thoughts are on where we will see how low the indexes will go ie Dow/ S&P / Tsx

If the current foolishness continues I am battening down the hatches for another 20% drop from here.

[roper1]

This is getting fun...........However things aren't as bad as I might have guessed.....yet.

I do feel bad for anyone needing to leave the job market at the moment. Likely a bunch more downside to go.

Good luck Everyone!

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by Pixel Shooter

Curious to what everyone’s thoughts are on where we will see how low the indexes will go ie Dow/ S&P / Tsx

Well, every time I try to guess, it does the opposite!

But just for fun, let’s say that things steady, then go up a bit next month before cratering just before the US midterms!

Disclaimer: this is 100% speculation based on nothing! Lol!

[fishtank]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=2529717investing 10$ everyday at 5% return can net $300k in 5 years ? Sign me up

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by fishtank

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=2529717investing 10$ everyday at 5% return can net $300k in 5 years ? Sign me up

Future minister of finance for the Liberal party? lol.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by fishtank

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=2529717investing 10$ everyday at 5% return can net $300k in 5 years ? Sign me up

I'd really like to know how he figured that, conveniently left out you have to start with $220K?

[stein]

BNS at 52 week low with ex dividend date Oct 3, should be worth loading up?

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by stein

BNS at 52 week low with ex dividend date Oct 3, should be worth loading up?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/inve...ason/#comments

Food for thought. Large Latin American exposure when we are on the brink of a global slowdown and the US dollar is surging.

Maybe some of the seasoned guys on here can point out some things to look for. One thing that Dean keeps mentioning is that the best are the best for a reason. The 10 year charts of Royal, TD, and BNS tell different stories.

[The Elkster]

Further down she goes. Housing only starting to correct and slowdown has yet to really start showing on company balance sheets. Was reading on a supply chain site about unexpected drop in demand and full warehouses...harbinger of things to come for company financials and ultimately jobs.

Gonna get interesting when the full weight of Europe's self inflicted energy shortage becomes obvious. First coolish week for Germany and they are already issuing warnings that usage is too high. EU industry is going to get smoked with little reprieve next year. Come spring/summer they will not be refilling empty storage without Russian gas. Next winter could be extremely dire. Civil unrest dire. Underestimate the value of cheap reliable energy at your peril.