Your Idea's, to face lift our current Draw System

[sheepguide]

Originally Posted by walking buffalo

This is the best way I know of.


Use a ratio of the total number of applicants in a draw wmu against the total number applicant in the draw code.

For wmu BBB.

eg. 1000 wmu BBB draw applicants /10000 total draw code applicants = 10%


Now use this percentage to calculate the approx. number of 999 applicants in a draw wmu from the total number of applicants in the draw code.

eg. 12000 draw code 999 applicants x 10% = 1200 applicants for wmu BBB.



The approximated number of applicants (WMU BBB specific and 999 inclusive) is 2200.




A person can use the same math using the priority levels to estimate the number of applicants with a specific priority.

It is an estimation, but based on solid statistical analysis and probability techniques.

Anyone know of a more accurate was to apporximate this number?

.

So in other words just guess!! LoL

[walking buffalo]

Originally Posted by sheepguide

So in other words just guess!! LoL

That or do the math.

You could ask the beautiful new pony of yours to tap out the numbers for you if you need some help.

[Wisebuck]

I see individuals that are almost exclusively hunting one or two specific anim als (read Draws) advocating change and elimination of 999 in order to improve their chances of repeatedly drawing those same animals.
I say "stop being so greedy and diversify your hunting to include more species".
Just my opinion......

[sheepguide]

Originally Posted by Wisebuck

I see individuals that are almost exclusively hunting one or two specific anim als (read Draws) advocating change and elimination of 999 in order to improve their chances of repeatedly drawing those same animals.
I say "stop being so greedy and diversify your hunting to include more species".
Just my opinion......

More guys applying for more different draws will increase all wait times even more. As they will still put in their regular draws and just add more increasing applicants on them new draws.

[Lefty-Canuck]

It is always a guess....hence why it is a draw/lottery

Sometimes you win sometimes you lose but you can't win if you don't buy a ticket.....that's what most people who enter everything have figured out.

I said this before....there has been a major "reboot" in the system due to a lot of factors and times change.

Years ago a draw that was a gimme in 2 years is now 4 and what took 4 is taking 6-8....sheer numbers of hunters and applications and our populations if wildlife are staying the same or declining.

So yes it is going to take a heck if a lot longer now than it did 10 years ago.

Get used to it....

LC

[Wisebuck]

Originally Posted by sheepguide

More guys applying for more different draws will increase all wait times even more. As they will still put in their regular draws and just add more increasing applicants on them new draws.

Hunting more species doesn't necessarily mean put in for more draws. There are lots of gereral tags available if you are willing to do a little traveling.

[Stewie]

Originally Posted by Wisebuck

Hunting more species doesn't necessarily mean put in for more draws. There are lots of gereral tags available if you are willing to do a little traveling.

You can still put in all the draws you want and still pick up general tags if your not drawn or keep 999

[sheepguide]

Originally Posted by Wisebuck

Hunting more species doesn't necessarily mean put in for more draws. There are lots of gereral tags available if you are willing to do a little traveling.

Oh I realize that. Was just meaning if they spread themselves out more in the draw.

[sheepguide]

But in the end its still a guess Buff as you have no idea how many guys are at what priority in what area. In some zones there is no one higher than a priority 5 as they have only been open for 5 years so how do you use the whole 999 totals to figure averages? They may have the same number of applicants but have not been on the system long enough to be up to multi digit priority levels. Maybe in that zone the highest 999 applicant is a priority 4? Without knowing this taking a flat number from all zones can be nothing but a vauge guess at best?

Two zones can have the exact same number in a draw code of applicants and guys in 999 that would apply and It may have the exact same priorities to get drawn but one may have most 999 guys at higher priorities and few at the lower ones and the other may have few high priority guys but lots in the lower side not near getting drawn. By your caculation these two would have the exact same wait times which would be 100% false.


Unless you can determine what zones and how many guys are going to draw out of the 999 pool then its nothing but a guess and is why you hear every year I should have gotten my tag as it said a priority 5 should have got it. But if it was a good year for that species or the previous year was great on trophy animals the numbers coming out of 999 can vary immensely.

Look at antelope. There is a large 999 crowd there due to tag number decreases. But even if numbers hold the same but guys start killing some toads a big crowd will come out of the 999 side and will change things drastically. That number coming out in any zone at any given time is very unknown.

If its a slow winter in the oil patch and guys are hurting for money they may drop out of the draw and into the 999 pool as they cant afford hunts that year. Now the variable has changed again.

You can figure as many estimated numbers you wish but unless you can roughly determine how many guys are going to actually put in that particular year your numbers are a guess.