Covid Second Wave... a comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

It’s amazing how a charming speaker can make anything a political spectrum argument.

Democrats like masks and are anti human.

Mask wearers have succumbed to globalization.

We now need some people here to really understand social media and how in and by itself it is an amazing and strong persuasive tool to bend peoples opinion to what they want.

This guy doesn’t believe Covid is a thing to be concerned about. So if you desperately are looking for self approval and approval of others on your hope for normalcy, then you are ripe fodder for these sorts of social media orators.

The nice, calming voice of reassurance is what most people want. And many people neither like change nor cope with change well.

So please...give us more random YouTube links to guys telling us everything is okay.

I for one am not scared nor are most people. Most realize the elderly are at most risk. Most find it inconvenient but hardly debilitating to wear a mask and social distance.

Some are selfish and have gatherings without trying to be careful, or shout at clerks making minimum wage because they hate masks.

Trump says a vaccine is coming.

Therefore..chill, be happy, don’t worry. Dream of Kokomo.

Do you personally know anyone who has contracted covid?

[Kurt505]

Things are getting real bad, I’m thinking only a full out hazmat suit with Scott air pacs might be our only line of defense before the entire population of earth is wiped out!

[Bergerboy]

Not sure why people are concerned about a second wave. The first one passed without any issue. The same will happen with the third, and fourth and fifth and on and on and on.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Glion

Death rate based on deaths with covid? Not From Covid. Keep in mind that is how Alberta is calculating just like the rest of Canada.

That is something that needs further clarity from the government. It is likely also the way flu deaths are calculated.

While flu versus Covid comparisons likely track the same way...

I would prefer doctors deem cause of death to be primarily due to Covid.

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by HVA7mm

How is it similar, because people died?

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Look at the curves and the similarities.

France hit 5000 day infections in their first wave...now at 20,000

Spain spiked but not as bad as they implemented measures again.

Most European countries are spiking hard. US and Canada first spike lagged behind Europe so we shall see how people’s behaviours make it better or worse.

In the US already some hospitals are at 70% capacity. Flu season plus unchecked Covid could put a significant strain on health care resources.

I guess that you could say that, however in 1919 the life expectancy in France was around 47-48 years, where as now it's more like 83. The population of France in 1919 was say 39 million and today around 67 million. So if anything, due to population density alone, the graph today should be looking much worse than in 1919.

Since the population has increased about 67% since 1919, the overall affect on the population hasn't been nearly as bad as it was 100 years ago. Also the majority of people succumbing to COVID in France are over 75 years in age, so in 1919 with the life expectancy being under 50, maybe very few would have died of COVID as there wouldn't be a very large demographic over the age of 75.

The graph provided in the beginning of this thread might as well be the beginning of a Bob Ross landscape painting.

[fishnguy]

Originally Posted by HVA7mm

67%

Irrelevant, but a change form 39 to 67 is not 67% change.

You guys can carry on now

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

Irrelevant, but a change form 39 to 67 is not 67% change.

You guys can carry on now

Sorry I was rounding down, it should have been closer to 70% or 72.........Darn it, what I meant to say is that the increase was around 2/3

[slough shark]

Probably the biggest threat is our health care system being overwhelmed, not necessarily because of active corona cases although that could push us over the top. It’s more as a result of our earlier actions where we put everything health care related off, people ignored a lot of other health things and didn’t go the the hospital, delayed surgeries. How many had surgeries postponed because they weren’t deemed urgent? How many are suffering from a lot more things as a result of that? How many mental health issues have arisen? How many more drug overdoses and continuing drug issues are around now because people turned to drugs? All the unintended consequences of our mitigation efforts are coming home to roost and we will see which ends up being worse.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Do you personally know anyone who has contracted covid?

Yes. He died.

A friend of a friend died also.

Father of a kids friend,,.will be ok.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by HVA7mm

I guess that you could say that, however in 1919 the life expectancy in France was around 47-48 years, where as now it's more like 83. The population of France in 1919 was say 39 million and today around 67 million. So if anything, due to population density alone, the graph today should be looking much worse than in 1919.

Since the population has increased about 67% since 1919, the overall affect on the population hasn't been nearly as bad as it was 100 years ago. Also the majority of people succumbing to COVID in France are over 75 years in age, so in 1919 with the life expectancy being under 50, maybe very few would have died of COVID as there wouldn't be a very large demographic over the age of 75.

The graph provided in the beginning of this thread might as well be the beginning of a Bob Ross landscape painting.

Only if you assume equal deadly virulence.

No all Coronavirus work the same. Too much variability to assume that as dead rate for youth eas very high.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Yes. He died.

A friend of a friend died also.

Father of a kids friend,,.will be ok.

I’m not talking friend of friends, I’m talking about someone you’ve looked in the eyes, call by name and have had conversations with.

The ones who died, did they have cancer or heart disease? Did they have preexisting health issues they were dealing with?

I know two who I have spoken to personally, both in their late 40’s, one has diabetes and high blood pressure. Both said it was a minor illness.

I have a friend of a friend who died of a heart attack and was ruled Covid because test results said it was in her system. I also have a friend who’s son contracted covid with just minor flu like symptoms. No one I know who has contracted it has been really sick.

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Only if you assume equal deadly virulence.

No all Coronavirus work the same. Too much variability to assume that as dead rate for youth eas very high.

Man, it is what it is. Deadly virulence or deadly flatulence, the world will not stop. The world cannot currently stop this virus. A vaccine may or not be created or even work for that matter, and this virus may be like many, continue mutating and hopefully weakening over time.

I'm not sure if you fall into the high risk demographic or not, but if so I hope that you are doing all that you can to protect yourself. If not I hope you are doing what you can to protect those falling in that demographic that you come into contact with.

Personally I refuse to be a monger of any kind. Be it a warmonger, rumor monger, scare monger or fear monger. Charts, graphs and synopses thus far have been to most of the people in the world meaningless. The majority of the global population are more consumed by the thought of simply surviving. We in the developed and prosperous part of the globe have the luxury of pondering, worrying and debating about matters such as COVID-19 and whether or not it has any direct effect on us. Most inhabitants of earth are focusing on food, clean water, shelter and clothing. So I guess that we should consider ourselves lucky to be able to debate about such things.

For a lot of people that are letting the thoughts of COVID-19 consume their lives, I feel for them but they need to realize that they are very fortunate to be affluent enough to have the time to sit and worry about it. They should also consider eliminating all sources of interior lighting, as there is a good chance that their very shadows could scare them to death.

For those predisposed to thinking about the end of the world, here are some good examples of past historical predictions. It should prove a good read, and give ample opportunity for research and debate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...alyptic_events

[Smoky buck]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Yes. He died.

A friend of a friend died also.

Father of a kids friend,,.will be ok.

And this explains a lot about why you have the opinion you do. 2 out of 3 people you know who have had COVID died from it would definitely make it more personal

My household has had a different experience 16 people we know all recovered no hospitalization needed even

[fishnguy]

^ Which may explain why your perspective is different.

[Smoky buck]

Originally Posted by fishnguy

^ Which may explain why your perspective is different.

That and friend/family in the medical field across North America are probably a big part of why I have my opinion

What we experience always plays a roll

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Smoky buck

And this explains a lot about why you have the opinion you do. 2 out of 3 people you know who have had COVID died from it would definitely make it more personal

My household has had a different experience 16 people we know all recovered no hospitalization needed even

Nope.

What plays the biggest part for me is the prevention of a surge on medical resources.

Load leveling the system is what has helped prevent deaths.

Then on top of that we need to fully understand if and what there is for longer term health consequences should you have had Covid.

We would be foolish to open the flood gates as we have seen what happened in other places.

Further knowledge and treatments may allow for more cases while not overwhelming healthcare.

What is known is that we are learning more every day and the slower spread has allowed the learnings to save lives.

[gunluvr]

Originally Posted by KegRiver

I am officially a senior, I have a serious lung condition and recently had a heart attack.

So it may be my prospective is different from most, even perhaps most my age.
But I have good reason to believe that there are many my age and older who would agree with me.

I did not spend the better part of my life working to give my kids the best possible chance at a good future to see that squandered on ineffective efforts and often misguided efforts to buy me and other seniors a few more weeks of life.

Washing ones hands always makes sense, social distancing when there is any illness going around makes sense. Wearing a mask can make sense in some situations.

But shutting down the whole economy, putting people out of work, spending the next three generations inheritance and hobbling our health care system make no sense at all.


One expert says we can't stop this virus, the best we can do is slow it down.
Another experts says wear a mask and save a life.

Some say follow all the rules and we will flatten the curve, but everyone knows there are always some who will never follow the rules, any rules.

Yet when the numbers start to rise those of us who do follow the rules are hit with even more rules that the rebels will not follow.

How am I as an individual to have any faith in the system when the system is doing stuff like that?

The public by and large is using common sense and most are doing the right thing. It's our completely inept and fiscally irresponsible government that has messed up this whole thing.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by gunluvr

The public by and large is using common sense and most are doing the right thing. It's our completely inept and fiscally irresponsible government that has messed up this whole thing.

Agreed there is some problems in the process.

I am for wearing masks, social distancing, opening schools, keeping business going, consequences for failing to wear masks and social distances as required.

I am against shutting down the schools. Shutting down businesses. Stopping surgeries.

Government should in the future allocate one hospital for Covid. As it I creaes in cases open another hospital. Ensure Covid areas are completely separate from the rest. Make PPE in Canada (not given to liberal friends). At first sign of a spread in another country, immediately start quarantining returning Canadians and visitors. Major consequences for failing to isolate. Have an online repository of Covid studies highlighting new learnings changing processes.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Nope.

What plays the biggest part for me is the prevention of a surge on medical resources.

Load leveling the system is what has helped prevent deaths.

Then on top of that we need to fully understand if and what there is for longer term health consequences should you have had Covid.

We would be foolish to open the flood gates as we have seen what happened in other places.

Further knowledge and treatments may allow for more cases while not overwhelming healthcare.

What is known is that we are learning more every day and the slower spread has allowed the learnings to save lives.

A purely hypothetical example would be if a family member of a patient refused to wear a mask on visiting another family member in a hospital unit and was ultimately let in. What if that visitor turned out to be infected and passed the infection on to the person they were visiting? Suppose that patient got infected, and passed it it on to other patients on his unit prior to him dying. Maybe some of those other patients also died as well as hundreds of staff getting possible exposures. Some staff may turn out positive, some negative, but they all need to be off work on paid leave. The people needed to replace them are paid at overtime rates (double time).
Could you imagine the MASSIVE costs associated in a scenario like that? Thank god that would never happen in real life.

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by Scott h

A purely hypothetical example would be if a family member of a patient refused to wear a mask on visiting another family member in a hospital unit and was ultimately let in. What if that visitor turned out to be infected and passed the infection on to the person they were visiting? Suppose that patient got infected, and passed it it on to other patients on his unit prior to him dying. Maybe some of those other patients also died as well as hundreds of staff getting possible exposures. Some staff may turn out positive, some negative.
Could you imagine the MASSIVE costs associated in a scenario like that? Thank god that would never happen in real life.

Purely hypothetical. What if the same infected person walking in, prior to donning a mask coughs/sneezes into their hands and doesn't wash them. That person then touches several surfaces throughout the hospital. Others behind them touch the same surfaces and without washing hands, proceed eat with their hands, chew their fingernails, pick their nose, rub their eyes or touch several other surfaces. Did the mask work?

I personally believe that coughing/sneezing into your arm or kleenex, and practicing good hygiene do more than a mask does. It may not be as optically pleasing as a mask, but does work.

And yes I do wear a mask due to workplace requirements, current city bylaws and when in crowded spaces (which is never).

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

We would be foolish to open the flood gates as we have seen what happened in other places.

Like Sweden

[Glion]

Originally Posted by Scott h

A purely hypothetical example would be if a family member of a patient refused to wear a mask on visiting another family member in a hospital unit and was ultimately let in. What if that visitor turned out to be infected and passed the infection on to the person they were visiting? Suppose that patient got infected, and passed it it on to other patients on his unit prior to him dying. Maybe some of those other patients also died as well as hundreds of staff getting possible exposures. Some staff may turn out positive, some negative, but they all need to be off work on paid leave. The people needed to replace them are paid at overtime rates (double time).
Could you imagine the MASSIVE costs associated in a scenario like that? Thank god that would never happen in real life.

One massive assumption made... that a mask would stop it. Welp transmission rates on countries high in mask compliance is the same as those low in mask compliance

[gunluvr]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Agreed there is some problems in the process.

I am for wearing masks, social distancing, opening schools, keeping business going, consequences for failing to wear masks and social distances as required.

I am against shutting down the schools. Shutting down businesses. Stopping surgeries.

Government should in the future allocate one hospital for Covid. As it I creaes in cases open another hospital. Ensure Covid areas are completely separate from the rest. Make PPE in Canada (not given to liberal friends). At first sign of a spread in another country, immediately start quarantining returning Canadians and visitors. Major consequences for failing to isolate. Have an online repository of Covid studies highlighting new learnings changing processes.

Small rural hospitals that have never had a case of covid have basically given their staffs a paid holiday at work since this started. Surely there are better ways to use the healthcare resources we have while not putting healthcare workers in city hospitals at risk.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Like Sweden

They are doing masks and social distancing.

There are three camps

1. Covid isn’t real and even if it was it only kills old or sick people so tough luck for them.

2. Covid is real. Wear masks and social distance and isolate when sick. Wash hands and follow guidelines

3. Covid will kill us all so everyone stay home and have the government pay us all.

I am in camp number 2.

Cheers

Sun

[KegRiver]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

They are doing masks and social distancing.

There are three camps

1. Covid isn’t real and even if it was it only kills old or sick people so tough luck for them.

2. Covid is real. Wear masks and social distance and isolate when sick. Wash hands and follow guidelines

3. Covid will kill us all so everyone stay home and have the government pay us all.

I am in camp number 2.

Cheers

Sun

I'm in camp two as well.

[walking buffalo]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

What do you as the risk in this age category?

Ask that question again....

[obsessed1]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

They are doing masks and social distancing.

There are three camps

1. Covid isn’t real and even if it was it only kills old or sick people so tough luck for them.

2. Covid is real. Wear masks and social distance and isolate when sick. Wash hands and follow guidelines

3. Covid will kill us all so everyone stay home and have the government pay us all.

I am in camp number 2.

Cheers

Sun

4th camp. Covid is real. It's a real flue that is no different than other flues as it can and will kill those with pre-existing health issues. carry on as usual during flue season.

I am in camp 4.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

They are doing masks and social distancing.

There are three camps

1. Covid isn’t real and even if it was it only kills old or sick people so tough luck for them.

2. Covid is real. Wear masks and social distance and isolate when sick. Wash hands and follow guidelines

3. Covid will kill us all so everyone stay home and have the government pay us all.

I am in camp number 2.

Cheers

Sun

Option 2 seems to blend the best science as well as the least damage to our life and economy, so out of spite many will choose 1 or 2 and then complain about the results.....

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by obsessed1

4th camp. Covid is real. It's a real flue that is no different than other flues as it can and will kill those with pre-existing health issues. carry on as usual during flue season.

I am in camp 4.

I think you will get lots of people following your medical advice with this post.

That was an eloquent speech about the.....flue....

[Kurt505]

Here’s a text I just got from my friend who was diagnosed with covid about 2 weeks ago.