Covid Second Wave... a comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu

[Sundancefisher]

There are differences.

Factor in the 2019/2020 response was better than 1918.
Medicine is better now than 1918
People travel more now than in 1918
The Spanish flu killed younger people whereas Covid19 kills seniors over 65




If you look at France...it is very similar.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/

Canada’s daily cases are now spiking.

Shut downs are starting again as it appears apathy has won over common sense in many areas.

[HalfBreed]

The Donald cured it. We're all saved!

[Smoky buck]

Lockdowns, masks, washing hands or hiding under your bed Covid19 will do whatever Covid19 does

Without a vaccine or immunity it’s not going to go away so continue on with life or hide your call

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Smoky buck

Lockdowns, masks, washing hands or hiding under your bed Covid19 will do whatever Covid19 does

Without a vaccine or immunity it’s not going to go away so continue on with life or hide your call

To prevent a big second wave doesn’t mean hiding under a bed.

One can still go out...social distancing and wearing a mask.

Refrain from sharing food and drink and utensils.

This notion of hiding is a misdirected form of suppression of common sense. There are many older AOF members, family and friends we need to remember.

I am not hiding. But using common sense during a pandemic is great.

Immunity is not assured if you catch it. Future medical concerns as result of catching it is still being researched.

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

There are differences.

Factor in the 2019/2020 response was better than 1918.
Medicine is better now than 1918
People travel more now than in 1918
The Spanish flu killed younger people whereas Covid19 kills seniors over 65




If you look at France...it is very similar.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/

Canada’s daily cases are now spiking.

Shut downs are starting again as it appears apathy has won over common sense in many areas.

How is it similar, because people died?

[Grizzly Adams]

Covid doesn't have nearly the mortality of the Spanish flu for a number of reasons, it's just the worst scenario in recent history we have for comparison. We forget about Plague in medieval times, reduced European population by half and set civilization back centuries by some estimates. We need to avoid that.

Grizz

[calgarychef]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

To prevent a big second wave doesn’t mean hiding under a bed.

One can still go out...social distancing and wearing a mask.

Refrain from sharing food and drink and utensils.

This notion of hiding is a misdirected form of suppression of common sense. There are many older AOF members, family and friends we need to remember.

I am not hiding. But using common sense during a pandemic is great.

Immunity is not assured if you catch it. Future medical concerns as result of catching it is still being researched.

I totally agree. Be careful. And don’t underestimate what it’s like to have 20% less lung function or a destroyed liver.

[Grizzly Adams]

Originally Posted by calgarychef

I totally agree. Be careful. And don’t underestimate what it’s like to have 20% less lung function or a destroyed liver.

“If you can keep your head when all about you, others are losing theirs and blaming it on you, If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too,

You can look up the rest of Kipling's poem.


Grizz

[calgarychef]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Adams

“If you can keep your head when all about you, others are losing theirs and blaming it on you, If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too,

You can look up the rest of Kipling's poem.


Grizz

Good response!

[Smokey]

Seems they are testing 25k per day opposed to 10-14k a few months back. More tests equals more active cases.

ICU usage has hardly gone up, and hospitalizations are up but stable, and the mortality rate is pretty flat. Did we even have a first wave?

If there is a second wave its because the kids are back in school and has less to do with weather. But I am no expert.

Sweden has had less then 100 deaths in the last 3 months, and still has not panicked. They wear T=Shirts for their chief Infectious Disease Doctor.

[NSDucknut]

Governments are misreporting #'s, don't be so sure about spiking numbers and second waves. Ontario for example.

[walking buffalo]

A comparison of Covid and Influenza in the US.
Data from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm


Covid - Infection Fatality Ratio
Current Best Estimate:
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

Influenza - Infection Fatality Ratio (calculated from Estimated Deaths/Estimated Illnesses)
0-17 years: 0.00006
18-49 years: 0.0002
50-64 years: 0.0005
65+ years: 0.0086


My Grandparents would be screaming bloody H's telling the kids to go LIVE LIFE!
Having survived TWO World Wars and the Great depression, there is no way they would expect younger generations to suffer in this fashion for their sake.

Let's smarten up!
Look after the Elderly, and Live Life!

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by Smoky buck

Lockdowns, masks, washing hands or hiding under your bed Covid19 will do whatever Covid19 does

Without a vaccine or immunity it’s not going to go away so continue on with life or hide your call

Yes but that's just the point people are not even following the simplest of protocol and that is where the problem is....until there is a vaccine etc....some just don't get it

[scalerman]

Covid is here to stay. There is no escaping that fact. We will all get it in one form or another. I believe that case count is somewhere between 10 and 100 times higher than what is being reported. Not every person has been tested and I believe that many people have been tested multiple times. I would be interested to know exactly how many different people have been tested, as opposed to how many tests have been conducted. Those two numbers will be vastly different I think.
If you feel the need to wear a bio-hazard suit to be safe, by all means fill your boots. It appears that neither masks nor distancing is working at this point. I, for one, will go about my life in a normal fashion. I will go out of my way to protect the most vulnerable population- the elderly.

[KegRiver]

I am officially a senior, I have a serious lung condition and recently had a heart attack.

So it may be my prospective is different from most, even perhaps most my age.
But I have good reason to believe that there are many my age and older who would agree with me.

I did not spend the better part of my life working to give my kids the best possible chance at a good future to see that squandered on ineffective efforts and often misguided efforts to buy me and other seniors a few more weeks of life.

Washing ones hands always makes sense, social distancing when there is any illness going around makes sense. Wearing a mask can make sense in some situations.

But shutting down the whole economy, putting people out of work, spending the next three generations inheritance and hobbling our health care system make no sense at all.


One expert says we can't stop this virus, the best we can do is slow it down.
Another experts says wear a mask and save a life.

Some say follow all the rules and we will flatten the curve, but everyone knows there are always some who will never follow the rules, any rules.

Yet when the numbers start to rise those of us who do follow the rules are hit with even more rules that the rebels will not follow.

How am I as an individual to have any faith in the system when the system is doing stuff like that?

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

Yes but that's just the point people are not even following the simplest of protocol and that is where the problem is....until there is a vaccine etc....some just don't get it

Can always get the brain swab/liberal chip implanted or maybe most already got the test

[Grizzly Adams]

Originally Posted by KegRiver

I am officially a senior, I have a serious lung condition and recently had a heart attack.

So it may be my prospective is different from most, even perhaps most my age.
But I have good reason to believe that there are many my age and older who would agree with me.

I did not spend the better part of my life working to give my kids the best possible chance at a good future to see that squandered on ineffective efforts and often misguided efforts to buy me and other seniors a few more weeks of life.

Washing ones hands always makes sense, social distancing when there is any illness going around makes sense. Wearing a mask can make sense in some situations.

But shutting down the whole economy, putting people out of work, spending the next three generations inheritance and hobbling our health care system make no sense at all.


One expert says we can't stop this virus, the best we can do is slow it down.
Another experts says wear a mask and save a life.

Some say follow all the rules and we will flatten the curve, but everyone knows there are always some who will never follow the rules, any rules.

Yet when the numbers start to rise those of us who do follow the rules are hit with even more rules that the rebels will not follow.

How am I as an individual to have any faith in the system when the system is doing stuff like that?

A lot of us are feeling that way, these days. We might survive the virus, but not the economic fall out by ever changing countermeasures . In Quebec and Ontario, they're closing businesses again, even if you're open, you can't run a viable restaurant on 50% occupancy, fact of life.

Grizz

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by HVA7mm

How is it similar, because people died?

Look at the curves and the similarities.

France hit 5000 day infections in their first wave...now at 20,000

Spain spiked but not as bad as they implemented measures again.

Most European countries are spiking hard. US and Canada first spike lagged behind Europe so we shall see how people’s behaviours make it better or worse.

In the US already some hospitals are at 70% capacity. Flu season plus unchecked Covid could put a significant strain on health care resources.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Adams

A lot of us are feeling that way, these days. We might survive the virus, but not the economic fall out by ever changing countermeasures . In Quebec and Ontario, they're closing businesses again, even if you're open, you can't run a viable restaurant on 50% occupancy, fact of life.

Grizz

It comes down to everyone trying to social distance, hand wash and wear masks.

Those that don’t and those that are hosting or going to parties with shared food and drink and close quarters without regard for prevention...they are causing the problem.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by walking buffalo

A comparison of Covid and Influenza in the US.
Data from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm


Covid - Infection Fatality Ratio
Current Best Estimate:
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

Influenza - Infection Fatality Ratio (calculated from Estimated Deaths/Estimated Illnesses)
0-17 years: 0.00006
18-49 years: 0.0002
50-64 years: 0.0005
65+ years: 0.0086


My Grandparents would be screaming bloody H's telling the kids to go LIVE LIFE!
Having survived TWO World Wars and the Great depression, there is no way they would expect younger generations to suffer in this fashion for their sake.

Let's smarten up!
Look after the Elderly, and Live Life!

Link didn’t work

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

These are planning scenarios. Not actual.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Smokey

Seems they are testing 25k per day opposed to 10-14k a few months back. More tests equals more active cases.

ICU usage has hardly gone up, and hospitalizations are up but stable, and the mortality rate is pretty flat. Did we even have a first wave?

If there is a second wave its because the kids are back in school and has less to do with weather. But I am no expert.

Sweden has had less then 100 deaths in the last 3 months, and still has not panicked. They wear T=Shirts for their chief Infectious Disease Doctor.

Sweden...maybe being more socialist are more about the common good. They are doing social distancing and mask wearing well... maybe better than elsewhere. Still the numbers show they are now starting to spike.

Panic as you say takes hold when it gets out of control and starts to pack hospitals. We don’t need another Spain, Italy or New York.

Spanish flu shows a real life scenario from the past. The second wave in the Fall was far worse than the first.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

It comes down to everyone trying to social distance, hand wash and wear masks.

Those that don’t and those that are hosting or going to parties with shared food and drink and close quarters without regard for prevention...they are causing the problem.

Has anyone been able to accurately correlate the change in transmission to human activity? When you look at the number compared to when we went into lockdown, came out, school started etc there is no direct correlation. At one time people used to dance to influence the weather. Is the implementation of measures to control the virus the new dance?

[Glion]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Sweden...maybe being more socialist are more about the common good. They are doing social distancing and mask wearing well... maybe better than elsewhere. Still the numbers show they are now starting to spike.

Panic as you say takes hold when it gets out of control and starts to pack hospitals. We don’t need another Spain, Italy or New York.

Spanish flu shows a real life scenario from the past. The second wave in the Fall was far worse than the first.

Actually Sweden has very low mask compliance from the data I have seen approx 14%
In fact all the curves and modeling have followed the exact same curves and modeling from flu seasons years before. The biggest difference was that 2019 have very very low mortality in some countries so you had a buildup of "dry tinder"
As for comparison to Spanish flu of course the curve is similar it is a virus
However the severity is not even in the same neighborhood. In fact if you look at the euromomo numbers they have 40000 more excess deaths this year compared to 2018, yet they are still lower than year 2000.
As for Spanish flu when you adjust for population it isn't even close to being in the same realm.
I have posted links before and not 1 person has debunked the data.
The only arguments I have received against the data were emotion based
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D0
Here is another Data video
And another
https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

There are multiple links with references to data sources.
But in regards to the spanish flu watch the second video and I believe about halfway he looks at excess deaths from approx last 100 years and gives a very good historical picture

[Glion]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

It comes down to everyone trying to social distance, hand wash and wear masks.

Those that don’t and those that are hosting or going to parties with shared food and drink and close quarters without regard for prevention...they are causing the problem.

This is completely false. Edmonton is reporting 97% compliance yet you are trying to say the 3% are the ones responsible for more cases.
The data says you are wrong.

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

Has anyone been able to accurately correlate the change in transmission to human activity? When you look at the number compared to when we went into lockdown, came out, school started etc there is no direct correlation. At one time people used to dance to influence the weather. Is the implementation of measures to control the virus the new dance?

It's all a "I believe" kinda thing

[walking buffalo]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Link didn’t work

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

These are planning scenarios. Not actual.

There is no such thing as "actual" when it comes to estimating the Flu and Covid mortality rates. Just estimates..

CURRENT mortality estimates are proving that Covid is hardly more dangerous to people 65 and younger than the Flu.

It is only people over 65 where Covid is currently 8-10 times more lethal.
Which is still low, and nowhere near the "Spanish Flu"....

This death rate is going to lower even more quickly as care procedures are improving, and more likely due to the virus becoming less lethal, as viruses typically do.

Maintaining the government panic and policy extremism is Insanity!

This is no longer about Human health, this is all Politics now....

[Glion]

Another video showing cases up but not deaths

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EJmni3LVK3k

[blackburbot]

Is most of this caused by our practices in the last 40years?

Our medical system is increasing life span every year (which is good in a sense that we are able to live and see more, enjoy grand kids and the works). The new building codes saying the house has to be air tight, yet use mechanical ventilation. All the added chemicals from fragrance, cleaning chemicals, automobiles... The push for more city dwellers and tighter living spaces.

Similar to what biologist are saving about how we manage our forest, by not letting large fires burn and we have such a large biomass that contributes to these larger hazards every year.

With all this mask wearing, how many are properly cleaning their masks and allowing their lungs to dry out properly? That commercial with William Shatner for C-Pap machines about wearing a dirty mask hurts you. With breathing into a mask all day, that moisture from your lungs can't be good. Warm, moist surfaces are the best for mold and other bacteria to grow

[BigJon]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Look at the curves and the similarities.

France hit 5000 day infections in their first wave...now at 20,000

Spain spiked but not as bad as they implemented measures again.

Most European countries are spiking hard. US and Canada first spike lagged behind Europe so we shall see how people’s behaviours make it better or worse.

In the US already some hospitals are at 70% capacity. Flu season plus unchecked Covid could put a significant strain on health care resources.

What capacity do hospitals run at as an average? Hearing that a hospital is at 70% capacity seems to me that things must be slow at that hospital...

[KegRiver]

I wonder just how meaningful comparisons between 1918 and 2020 can be.

World population in 1918, around 1.8 billion
World population in 2020 7.7 billion

Industrial and vehicle pollution in 1918, almost non existent

In 2020, Industrial pollution, thousands of tons per year
Transportation, thousands of tons per year.

1918 Heart disease, diabetics, cancer and obesity all minimal.
2020 all at crisis levels.

1918 diet, mostly organic.
2020, so laced with man made chemicals the labeling a product as organic warrants doubling the price.

I wonder what the Spanish flu would do in today's world if it appeared for the first time in 2020.