when is the economic bubble going to pop

[stinkynuts]

I sit here looking at how inflation seems to be out of control. New pickup's mid load 50-60k used trucks expensive too. Groceries are getting pretty high as well it don't take much to run up a 100 bucks at the store and only get a few back of food Meat is getting really high. I work in Oil and Gas and I farm on the side and i feel the pinch. I cant imagine how people working more entry level jobs feel and now with Covid and the Green moment breaking everyone's bank accounts. how long until the depression hits we have been in rescission for a few years now i have to think its getting close.

[Cement Bench]

when the people revolt against co-vid

ya could be bad this summer for sure

[Zip]

Originally Posted by Cement Bench

when the people revolt against co-vid

ya could be bad this summer for sure

One can only hope this would change some things for the better...the only path we seem to have against how we are losing our rights now almost daily it’s something new is that new kinda revolt thing your mentioning
Zip

[fishtank]

Everything is delayed right now due to covid19 , just patiently wait as the experts say.

[270person]

As long as Castro's offspring is running things we're in good hands.

Site needs a vomit emoji.

[lannie]

Not sure when it will burst but do what you can to stop it from taking you down harder than need be. Every time our economy takes a beating there are winners and losers. Do what you can to minimize the down side and I realize it's not entirely avoidable but if we keep focused and not lay down it will feel better.

Don't get ran over by a train, if you see it coming move out of the way.
That's being an Albertan.

Lots of crap happening but we need to look for the silver linings.
Residential building permits in Calgary are supposed to be up from last year!



“Some people don’t like change, but you need to embrace change if the alternative is disaster.” – Elon Musk

[calgarychef]

Economic bubble..l businesses are hanging on by their fingernails.
On qr77 they had a guest who thing is that as much as 25% of Canada’s businesses might disappear. Don’t worry it’s coming big time.

Knowing our history is important, read up on how the plaque in Europe changed things. We’re not “that bad” but this will take decades to work through.

[sk270]

Originally Posted by stinkynuts

I sit here looking at how inflation seems to be out of control. we have been in rescission for a few years now i have to think its getting close.

I need to get more information. I thought that inflation in Canada was quite low and basically as low as it was 50 years ago. I also thought that we had not been in a recession until Covid-19 hit us in 2020, certainly not for a few years.

I'm not disagreeing that our economy is in a mess but please link me up to the figures that you are using for inflation and recession.

Thanks.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by 270person

As long as Castro's offspring is running things we're in good hands.

Site needs a vomit emoji.

[MyAlberta]

Originally Posted by sk270

I need to get more information. I thought that inflation in Canada was quite low and basically as low as it was 50 years ago. I also thought that we had not been in a recession until Covid-19 hit us in 2020, certainly not for a few years.

I'm not disagreeing that our economy is in a mess but please link me up to the figures that you are using for inflation and recession.

Thanks.

Make that 30 years ago, least we forget. Pretty hard to gauge inflation in a pandemic year, but costs have risen due to US policy.

[JRF]

Originally Posted by sk270

I need to get more information. I thought that inflation in Canada was quite low and basically as low as it was 50 years ago. I also thought that we had not been in a recession until Covid-19 hit us in 2020, certainly not for a few years.

I'm not disagreeing that our economy is in a mess but please link me up to the figures that you are using for inflation and recession.

Thanks.

Inflation might be on schedule, but I think a more accurate way of addressing the insane cost of vehicles and the like that was originally mentioned in the opening post here is that rather than inflation driving these costs it is the fact that society has trained the general public to think that it is OK to spend 60-90k on a truck and take on the debt for it when you only make 50-70K annually. Something is driving the prices up, and while inflation might be (on the books) where it should be, the general populous is definitely tricked into thinking that spending huge dollars on stuff and carrying large debt loads is OK. I do tend to think that inflation will start to run away a bit, but that's my largely uneducated opinion on the matter so we'll just leave it at that.

You really get a pretty good idea of how bad the situation is when it was absolute chaos during the first week of people having no jobs. Week #1 of what was meant to be a short term thing and everyone hit the panic button so hard that the government immediately rolled out significant financial support. When your country can't go more than a week or two without a pay check something has gone terribly wrong. On the other end of the spectrum, a year with no paycheck is pretty intense.

[270person]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

That'll work. Thank you.

[Bushrat]

Originally Posted by sk270

I need to get more information. I thought that inflation in Canada was quite low and basically as low as it was 50 years ago. I also thought that we had not been in a recession until Covid-19 hit us in 2020, certainly not for a few years.

I'm not disagreeing that our economy is in a mess but please link me up to the figures that you are using for inflation and recession.

Thanks.

Just thinking here that while inflation may be low there are a lot of things we have in our daily lives that never existed 50 years ago that are added on top of what were necessities then. Things like cell phone bills for everyone in the family, internet, cable, parking fees at work places for some, healthcare deductions, prescriptions, school fees and costs are way up for those who have kids, etc.

The array of things deemed necessary for daily life today cost over and above what was normal back in the day when all we had to worry about was heat, lights, groceries and gas for one automobile, one tv with 3 fuzzy channels. A hand full of pens and pencils, a few scribblers, a couple shirts, pants and a new pair of shoes (often hand me downs) and the school year was taken care of. Not so today.

Most are living beyond their means trying to support a lifestyle of options few can really afford. Fancy houses, eating out, vacations, multiple automobiles, boats, quads, sleds, 5th wheels. Easy credit, low interest rates, low bi weekly payments have suckered people into a life of debt to cover the myth that everyone should be able to live the American dream. Meanwhile their truck costs more than their yearly gross income.

A lot of 'inflation' is self induced.

[Smoky buck]

I believe things will become very interesting when Covid handouts end and it’s time to pay the piper

[muirsy]

Originally Posted by Smoky buck

I believe things will become very interesting when Covid handouts end and it’s time to pay the piper

I’d like to think I’m in the majority of people getting those handouts who wishes the government would just allow me to go back to work and make a living again.

[Drewski Canuck]

Think of investing like GAMBLING. That is what it is. No Guarantee of Returns.

Companies that make up the Stock Market depend on making Profit for some Business Evaluators to assign a net worth, that the Investor rationalizes a value per share on.

But everyone should know that Stock Value is not in any way connected to the value of the Stock. It is based on the perception of FUTURE value, and it is based on pure irrational speculation. For instance, in the Tech Bubble, most companies never were going to turn a profit, yet the Market went crazy running up the Stock anyway. I saw a $!5 per Mutual Fund Unit run up to $67 per unit in 1 year. I JUMPED OFF!! Why did it crash? Because the value was pure Speculation. It took AMAZON 10 years to turn a profit, and not at their highest valuations of the late 1990's.

The Mutual fund topped out at $69 in late 1999 and then took a crash down to $7 in early 2000. That is when that bubble burst.

What is different now is that the Players at the Poker Table are not retail investors like you and I. Norway's Soveriegn Fund is in the Market. California's Government Pension Funds are in the Market. Canada Pension Plan, Quebec Pension Plan, ALL PENSION PLANS, and even Alberta's own AIMCO (Heritage Fund, Sustainability Fund, Teacher's Pension Fund, etc)
ALL ARE IN THE MARKET!!!

Your bet is a rounding error compared to the bets being made by Government Investments. Outfits like the Government Pension Funds of Canada and the US, their State Pension Fund Managers. and even City Employee Funds like New York, are what drives the market.

On top of that, there are the Foreign Sovereign Funds, like Saudi Arabla. Before 9/11 happened, the Saudis were taking money out of the US Markets, causing a significant dip in the US Exchanges. That is how big that bet was.

So when will this Bubble burst? When Governments can afford it to burst.

Right now, the Underfunded Pension Liabilities for the Baby Boomers retiring right now are being sustained BECAUSE of the returns in the Market. Without these returns, your and my Pension would be lost.

The Stock Market is the only game in town right now.

Governments cannot afford the Bond Market to increase, because the massive amounts of Government Debt around the World would be defaulted on if interest rates go up.

So enjoy the ride. Even if you do not have One Dollar in the Stock Market, you are a player because of the Pension Fund Investments and the Sovereign Fund Investments that we all have a stake in.

Drewski

[Smoky buck]

Originally Posted by muirsy

I’d like to think I’m in the majority of people getting those handouts who wishes the government would just allow me to go back to work and make a living again.

There is without a doubt a good portion of people who wish they could just go back to work

I hope people like yourself and businesses that just want to make a living make it through this

[urban rednek]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Think of investing like GAMBLING. That is what it is. No Guarantee of Returns.

So enjoy the ride. Even if you do not have One Dollar in the Stock Market, you are a player because of the Pension Fund Investments and the Sovereign Fund Investments that we all have a stake in.

Drewski

aka. the largest, longest running Ponzi Scheme in the world. Endorsed by everyone, especially those that know how it is rigged.
Understand that governments and institutional investors need the money from retail investors (us) to make their profits and cover their losses.
A smart gambler knows when to fold their hand and wait for the next deal.

[Big Grey Wolf]

Drewski, how did you get to be a person of such wisdom. Enjoy your posts.

[bdub]

We are just on the edge of some nasty rates of inflation. The growth in the money supply is north of 20%. But nobody is spending or borrowing it in any quantity yet so the money multiplier and velocity is subdued for now. Once we get past this covid crap, that genie is going to be out of the bottle. There is going to be a supply shock and demand shock at the same time. Supply chains that used to be just in time, they are going to be just in case going forward. Inflation is going to hurt those who can least afford it and benefit those that have the least need.

[lmtada]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Think of investing like GAMBLING. That is what it is. No Guarantee of Returns.

Companies that make up the Stock Market depend on making Profit for some Business Evaluators to assign a net worth, that the Investor rationalizes a value per share on.

But everyone should know that Stock Value is not in any way connected to the value of the Stock. It is based on the perception of FUTURE value, and it is based on pure irrational speculation. For instance, in the Tech Bubble, most companies never were going to turn a profit, yet the Market went crazy running up the Stock anyway. I saw a $!5 per Mutual Fund Unit run up to $67 per unit in 1 year. I JUMPED OFF!! Why did it crash? Because the value was pure Speculation. It took AMAZON 10 years to turn a profit, and not at their highest valuations of the late 1990's.

The Mutual fund topped out at $69 in late 1999 and then took a crash down to $7 in early 2000. That is when that bubble burst.

What is different now is that the Players at the Poker Table are not retail investors like you and I. Norway's Soveriegn Fund is in the Market. California's Government Pension Funds are in the Market. Canada Pension Plan, Quebec Pension Plan, ALL PENSION PLANS, and even Alberta's own AIMCO (Heritage Fund, Sustainability Fund, Teacher's Pension Fund, etc)
ALL ARE IN THE MARKET!!!

Your bet is a rounding error compared to the bets being made by Government Investments. Outfits like the Government Pension Funds of Canada and the US, their State Pension Fund Managers. and even City Employee Funds like New York, are what drives the market.

On top of that, there are the Foreign Sovereign Funds, like Saudi Arabla. Before 9/11 happened, the Saudis were taking money out of the US Markets, causing a significant dip in the US Exchanges. That is how big that bet was.

So when will this Bubble burst? When Governments can afford it to burst.

Right now, the Underfunded Pension Liabilities for the Baby Boomers retiring right now are being sustained BECAUSE of the returns in the Market. Without these returns, your and my Pension would be lost.

The Stock Market is the only game in town right now.

Governments cannot afford the Bond Market to increase, because the massive amounts of Government Debt around the World would be defaulted on if interest rates go up.

So enjoy the ride. Even if you do not have One Dollar in the Stock Market, you are a player because of the Pension Fund Investments and the Sovereign Fund Investments that we all have a stake in.

Drewski

Drewski you are correct. You see the full picture. Congrats.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

But everyone should know that Stock Value is not in any way connected to the value of the Stock. It is based on the perception of FUTURE value, and it is based on pure irrational speculation. For instance, in the Tech Bubble, most companies never were going to turn a profit, yet the Market went crazy running up the Stock anyway. I saw a $!5 per Mutual Fund Unit run up to $67 per unit in 1 year. I JUMPED OFF!! Why did it crash? Because the value was pure Speculation. It took AMAZON 10 years to turn a profit, and not at their highest valuations of the late 1990's.

Tesla is an excellent current example.

Tesla delivered about 500,000 cars last year, or 75% of GM's 3rd quarter, but has an evaluation of approx. $700B. GM, $75B, is Tesla really worth 10x GM, I'm thinking no.

[Twisted Canuck]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Tesla is an excellent current example.

Tesla delivered about 500,000 cars last year, or 75% of GM's 3rd quarter, but has an evaluation of approx. $700B. GM, $75B, is Tesla really worth 10x GM, I'm thinking no.

It's even worse then that. It is absolutely insane, the PE ratio.

https://driving.ca/tesla/features/fe...g-ponzi-scheme

[guysmiley]

Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck

It's even worse then that. It is absolutely insane, the PE ratio.

https://driving.ca/tesla/features/fe...g-ponzi-scheme

I agree with you on the insane. Lots of people have however lost lost of money betting against by shorting it.

[Stinky Buffalo]

Originally Posted by Cement Bench

when the people revolt against co-vid

ya could be bad this summer for sure

So many are near the breaking point, people will get desperate.

If a revolt happens it will give our clueless leader the opportunity to invoke martial law (just like his poppa did) and put the foot on our necks for once and for all.

Originally Posted by calgarychef

Knowing our history is important, read up on how the plaque in Europe changed things. We’re not “that bad” but this will take decades to work through.

I think that's very true, Chef.

[Sundog57]

Originally Posted by 270person

Site needs a vomit emoji.

Should be on the politics thread but absolutely in favour

[dmcbride]

Inflation is already up, low oil is keeping the percentage down.

[350 mag]

Sell in May and go away...

Keep an eye on market "breadth".

But last year it was Sell in Feb. And BUY in May lol.

[ESOXangler]

Originally Posted by bdub

We are just on the edge of some nasty rates of inflation. The growth in the money supply is north of 20%. But nobody is spending or borrowing it in any quantity yet so the money multiplier and velocity is subdued for now. Once we get past this covid crap, that genie is going to be out of the bottle. There is going to be a supply shock and demand shock at the same time. Supply chains that used to be just in time, they are going to be just in case going forward. Inflation is going to hurt those who can least afford it and benefit those that have the least need.

Look im a true and through gold bug and what you're saying makes sense in terms of how we all think. But we all play by a different set of rules then the big timers. We play by the rules they give us. Credit ratings, interest rates, compounded interests. But those are for us. Its doubtful that we will see rapid inflation as long as the US is a military powerhouse. They can't afford it so they won't allow it. Gold should be 3-5000 an oz right now due to all the QE crap the last 10 years but that would seriously affect the US dollar. So it gets sand bagged.

We are all just rats trying to get a few crumbs from the feast at the table!

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by ESOXangler

Look im a true and through gold bug and what you're saying makes sense in terms of how we all think. But we all play by a different set of rules then the big timers. We play by the rules they give us. Credit ratings, interest rates, compounded interests. But those are for us. Its doubtful that we will see rapid inflation as long as the US is a military powerhouse. They can't afford it so they won't allow it. Gold should be 3-5000 an oz right now due to all the QE crap the last 10 years but that would seriously affect the US dollar. So it gets sand bagged.

We are all just rats trying to get a few crumbs from the feast at the table!

I think the gain went to bitcoin instead of gold ...lol . JpMorgan come out with a digital currency ... they can always back it with their silver holdings . Could see a push in Digital currency it going to be great as long as the government can create it out of thin air it’s just a number , like the one in bank account.