US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[ward]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

I got AHS family and US family tellin me the opposite.

Who to believe is difficult in this I guess.

Now there’s the Mis...... hospital spreads concern me a bit.

I does not appear to be about belief anymore, just what side you are on. All the science and facts crap just gets in the way. It doesn’t help that there are two kinds of science and two sets of facts either.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by ward

I does not appear to be about belief anymore, just what side you are on. All the science and facts crap just gets in the way. It doesn’t help that there are two kinds of science and two sets of facts either.

There are only ever one set of facts.

There are multiple data points.

Some people point at a single data point, make an ignorant argument and disregard other data points altogether to suit what they want to believe.

Sometimes these data points are prerequisite markers to subsequent outcomes. It's funny how many times you can explain that to some people and they just blink with a confused look and carry on making the same point without learning a thing.

It's like you can't measure a death rate (and outcome) until all cases are resolved (patient is no longer infected or has died).

When you have a steadily increasing infection rate add more and more unresolved cases into the equation the death rate (outcome resolution) is artificially deflated.

That's the problem. people argue but don't have a darn clue how to properly interpret science or statistics. That's why we have experts we need to listen and learn from.

Having said all of that, the most important thing is having a credible source of that data - and in the case of this issue, the Government's agencies should represent credible and accurate information.

[Map Maker]

Holy crap!

Morneau expected to reveal federal deficit in excess of $300-billion

[Gade81]

https://youtu.be/bEc0wy_mEA8

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by bessiedog

Whelp...

Tropical Trumpy just admits he’s contracted it.


This should be entertaining.

Just watching the DW news and it sounds like he's got a fever and muscle aches. Hopefully that's just some of the clots setting up !!!!!

[Bergerboy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7A-MLVEeMA

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7A-MLVEeMA

Do you have magnesium in your gummy bears?

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Do you have magnesium in your gummy bears?

A few (blue shirts) could use a gummy

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by MountainTi

A few (blue shirts) could use a gummy

3 gummies each would get the party started

[comaderek]

All I know is we were supposed to flatten the curve and it appears Canada has done that currently by what we did. The US did not yet. I believe that Canada has not had that many cases that reached our maximum capacity of our hospitals . In New York and now in places like Texas they have cases that are getting close to surpassing hospital intensive care capacity. As for death rates I believe the percentage that we should be looking at is during a pandemic what percent of a countries total population has died.
I also believe the percentage of the population that has the virus increases the likelihood that the people most at risk will get infected as well. Since the most at risk are elderly that can’t look after themselves they can not isolate from the populous as people need to help look after them. With surges in cases the likelihood of contract tracing working to stamp out clusters is unachievable since the sheer volume makes it almost impossible.
Plus the buy in of the public on how to protect people needs to be consistently promoted by our leaders and based on what our medical experts say. This has been done by Canada. In the US their leader has went against the medical experts opinions and has made light of the virus. Yes the learning curve has been steep and even experts have made improvements like not having to wear a mask to now we should and it being mandated in certain areas.
This is my opinion of how I look at what was done and how effective all areas were .

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by EZM

There are only ever one set of facts.

There are multiple data points.

Some people point at a single data point, make an ignorant argument and disregard other data points altogether to suit what they want to believe.

Sometimes these data points are prerequisite markers to subsequent outcomes. It's funny how many times you can explain that to some people and they just blink with a confused look and carry on making the same point without learning a thing.

It's like you can't measure a death rate (and outcome) until all cases are resolved (patient is no longer infected or has died).

When you have a steadily increasing infection rate add more and more unresolved cases into the equation the death rate (outcome resolution) is artificially deflated.

That's the problem. people argue but don't have a darn clue how to properly interpret science or statistics. That's why we have experts we need to listen and learn from.

Having said all of that, the most important thing is having a credible source of that data - and in the case of this issue, the Government's agencies should represent credible and accurate information.

Let’s not lose sight of the FACT that 0.2% of Alberta’s population has tested positive for Covid-19. And 0.004% have died from it. Will that change? Probably. Should we all go dancing? Probably not. Should we keep our distance? Might not hurt where we can. Should we wear rubber gloves to shop? Well, no. A mask to walk down the street? In your car?

And just for giggles less than 1% of the American population has had Covid. 0.04% have died.

Or put another way, 330,867,000 haven’t died from it in the US. Well done Trump.

[Bergerboy]

Just ran some numbers. 0.1538% of the worlds population has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. What we got here is the slowest moving virus imaginable or a crappy set of numbers. My money is on the notion we are on the tail end of it and reaching herd immunity.

12,000,000 Coronavirus cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

World population 7,800,000,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_...%207%20billion.


Time to put this behind us.

[comaderek]

usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

Don’t think we are there yet.

[hogie]

Originally Posted by comaderek

usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

Don’t think we are there yet.

Article from BBC, testing from Sweden. Lots more to learn. Article below.

People testing negative for coronavirus antibodies may still have some immunity, a study has suggested.

For every person testing positive for antibodies, two were found to have specific T-cells which identify and destroy infected cells.

This was seen even in people who had mild or symptomless cases of Covid-19.

But it's not yet clear whether this just protects that individual, or if it might also stop them from passing on the infection to others.

Researchers at the Karolinksa Institute in Sweden tested 200 people for both antibodies and T-cells.

Some were blood donors while others were tracked down from the group of people first infected in Sweden, mainly returning from earlier affected areas like northern Italy.

This could mean a wider group have some level of immunity to Covid-19 than antibody testing figures, like those published as part of the UK Office for National Statistics Infection Survey, suggest.

It's likely those people did mount an antibody response, but either it had faded or was not detectable by the current tests.

And these people should be protected if they are exposed to the virus for a second time.

Prof Danny Altmann at Imperial College London described the study as "robust, impressive and thorough" and said it added to a growing body of evidence that "antibody testing alone underestimates immunity".

Herd immunity

This doesn't necessarily get us any closer to herd immunity, though, according to assistant professor Marcus Buggert, one of the study's authors.

More analysis needs to be done to understand whether these T-cells provide "sterilising immunity", meaning they completely block the virus, or whether they might protect an individual from getting sick but not stop them from carrying the virus and transmitting it.

Much of the discussion around Covid-19 immunity has focused on antibodies - Y-shaped proteins which act like "missiles shooting down a target", assistant Prof Buggert explained.

They bind to the virus before it can enter your cells, and neutralise it.

If antibodies fail to neutralise the virus, it can enter your cells and turn them into virus-making factories.

T-cells, on the other hand, target already-infected cells and completely destroy them, stopping them from spreading to other, healthy cells.


Like antibodies, T-cells are part of the bit of your immune system that has a memory. Once it recognises a particular virus, it can quickly target cells infected with it and kill them.

A*drug called interleukin 7*, known to boost T-cell production, is being trialled in the UK to see if it can aid patients' recovery.

T-cell crash

Researchers from the Francis Crick Institute, King's College London and Guy's and St Thomas' Hospital noticed a group of 60 severely ill patients appeared to experience a crash in their numbers of T-cells.

This was not observed in the Karolinska study, which found the sicker the patient, the higher the level of antibodies and T-cells they appeared to produce.

The team said more research was needed.

While theirs is the biggest T-cell study done so far, it still involved a relatively small group of patients.

T-cells are very complex and much harder to identify than antibodies, requiring specialist labs and small batches of samples being tested by hand over the course of days.

This means mass testing for T-cells is not a very likely prospect at the moment.

[nelsonob1]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

Just ran some numbers. 0.1538% of the worlds population has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. What we got here is the slowest moving virus imaginable or a crappy set of numbers. My money is on the notion we are on the tail end of it and reaching herd immunity.

12,000,000 Coronavirus cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

World population 7,800,000,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_...%207%20billion.


Time to put this behind us.

Most absurd post of the month.

[CaberTosser]

Originally Posted by EZM

There are only ever one set of facts.

There are multiple data points.

Some people point at a single data point, make an ignorant argument and disregard other data points altogether to suit what they want to believe.

Sometimes these data points are prerequisite markers to subsequent outcomes. It's funny how many times you can explain that to some people and they just blink with a confused look and carry on making the same point without learning a thing.

It's like you can't measure a death rate (and outcome) until all cases are resolved (patient is no longer infected or has died).

When you have a steadily increasing infection rate add more and more unresolved cases into the equation the death rate (outcome resolution) is artificially deflated.

That's the problem. people argue but don't have a darn clue how to properly interpret science or statistics. That's why we have experts we need to listen and learn from.

Having said all of that, the most important thing is having a credible source of that data - and in the case of this issue, the Government's agencies should represent credible and accurate information.

Thank goodness someone else clues into this, it’s rather frustrating beating math and logic into some people heads.

I’m sure that many people are taking our relatively low numbers as a sign that they were right to ignore the safety warnings all along. It’s like if they went out with some exceedingly easy women, didn’t use a condom and didn’t catch an STD, that it’s a sign to continue with the same behavior.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by comaderek

usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

Don’t think we are there yet.

We may be. If they were testing for the presence of antibodies and not the virus we would know. If 50% of a country had gotten the virus and got past it before testing, they would test negative for the virus. They have antibodies and cannot transmit or pass the virus. Our current method would treat them as being at risk and make them wear masks etc.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by nelsonob1

Most absurd post of the month.

Was it the math, the logical reasoning, or the links to credible data I had provided that deemed my post absurd?

[Big Grey Wolf]

Hogie, excellent post, some real science on T cells. However this medical science is so far over Trumps head, he is presently making US look like a Third World Country.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by nelsonob1

Most absurd post of the month.

He was making a joke.

I hope.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

Just ran some numbers. 0.1538% of the worlds population has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. What we got here is the slowest moving virus imaginable or a crappy set of numbers. My money is on the notion we are on the tail end of it and reaching herd immunity.

12,000,000 Coronavirus cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

World population 7,800,000,000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_...%207%20billion.


Time to put this behind us.

Just curious how you came to the conclusion that, 1) it's slow moving 2) we're at herd immunity ????

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by CaberTosser

Thank goodness someone else clues into this, it’s rather frustrating beating math and logic into some people heads.

I’m sure that many people are taking our relatively low numbers as a sign that they were right to ignore the safety warnings all along. It’s like if they went out with some exceedingly easy women, didn’t use a condom and didn’t catch an STD, that it’s a sign to continue with the same behavior.

Well, no it isn’t even close to the same thing. In one instance I have complete control of my own destiny. We know for a fact that complete abstinence solves that problem. The other would require complete abstinence from life. Unless you know something I don’t?

So far no one can tell us what will stop this virus. Heaven help us when everyone gets a cold this fall.

[lmtada]

Interesting video. Came upon it today.

https://youtu.be/eDSDdwN2Xcg

[fishtank]

Arizona Karen And Costco ken are not helping . Too much freedom for these Americans.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by chuck

Well, no it isn’t even close to the same thing. In one instance I have complete control of my own destiny. We know for a fact that complete abstinence solves that problem. The other would require complete abstinence from life. Unless you know something I don’t?

So far no one can tell us what will stop this virus. Heaven help us when everyone gets a cold this fall.

Masks will probably be mandatory by the fall/winter if Canada starts going in the wrong direction.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Just curious how you came to the conclusion that, 1) it's slow moving 2) we're at herd immunity ????

1. The 0.1538% came from data collected from January 22, 2020 until now. This is 168 days. Now if this information (links are provided) can accurately affect the virus infection curve, we should had 75% herd immunity in 224.5 years at this rate. So um yeah....if the numbers that people are making decisions with are a solid representation we have a long way to go. I believe the virus has passed through many times more than reported as there is no way any intervention from PPE and isolation can arrest the spread to a crawl. Maybe we can drop the standard transmission speed to 25% but that would even be impressive.

2. The drop in numbers may be (I do not have antibody presence numbers to back this up) due to us reaching herd immunity as illustrated in point #1. This is something that I am hypothesizing and we shall see soon enough if ti holds water. Its kinda like gravity, cant see it but everything points to its existence.

Oh and here are some exclamation marks to respond to your question marks!!!!

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Masks will probably be mandatory by the fall/winter if Canada starts going in the wrong direction.

Which is a cure?

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by chuck

Which is a cure?

They obviously won't cure, but they do help prevent its spread.

[CaberTosser]

Originally Posted by chuck

Well, no it isn’t even close to the same thing. In one instance I have complete control of my own destiny. We know for a fact that complete abstinence solves that problem. The other would require complete abstinence from life. Unless you know something I don’t?

So far no one can tell us what will stop this virus. Heaven help us when everyone gets a cold this fall.

Good Lord, I didn’t say to be on total lockdown. I have to go in and out of peoples homes and businesses in the course of doing work for them, I wear my PPE for everyone’s benefit, I have no idea which of my clients might be especially vulnerable to this thing, and I do get into many older seniors homes as well. It’s not the end of the world for me to do this for a while, just as it’s not the end of the world for others to as well.

[JamesB]

Originally Posted by Gade81

By that metric, ignore the democratic states and suddenly they hardly have a problem

Well actually if you remove NY and NJ from the US stats their mortality rate from Covid-19 is pretty close to that of Canada. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Also for those discussing the "lag", this graph would seem to indicate that we are past the lag point and daily deaths in the US are still trending downwards or at the very least not spiking upwards.