New report quietly released before Christmas: Canada's fiscal sustainability in question.

[rugatika]

http://cnews.canoe.com/CNEWS/Canada/.../22694759.html

A shocking new report quietly released by the federal government admits that their finances could collapse in the coming decades if politicians don’t make responsible choices.

Two days before Christmas, when most politicians and their staffers had long left their offices for the holiday break, the finance department released — without fanfare or wide notice — a surprising update on long-term economic and fiscal projections.

The report warns that lower than expected growth combined with higher program spending “would be sufficient to put at risk the fiscal sustainability of the federal government.”

Ian Lee, who teaches at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, says Canadians should certainly be worried about these numbers.

“I’m old enough to remember when Pierre Elliott Trudeau first took us into deficits, which were much smaller ones than they are today,” Lee told the Toronto Sun in a telephone interview. “Everybody back then said ‘What’s the big deal?’ But the problem is that debt started to snowball and get out of control. It’s so difficult for politicians to say no and to make hard, difficult choices.”

The forecast also assumes that the budget won’t be balanced until 2055. Projections show it peaking at $38.8 billion in 2035.

This goes against a key Liberal campaign promise.

On the bright side Canada won't have to make any equalization payments TO Alberta. They'll be in the hole as deep as we are.

Does anyone sense MORE increases in taxes coming soon? Or is that just me?

[rugatika]

Here's the rest of the article for those that don't want to click on the link.

During the 2015 election, Justin Trudeau pledged to balance the budget before the next election, in 2019. Yet, in the fall fiscal update announced this past November, Trudeau’s Liberal government pushed the goal posts back and projected deficits until 2021 and beyond.

These new assumptions from the finance department now call all of the Liberal government’s numbers into question.

This is not the only alarming figure revealed.

Another key fiscal promise of the prime minister’s campaign was to bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio to 27% by 2019. Yet the finance report also places this accomplishment out of reach.

It instead projects the debt ratio consistently hovering around 31% for the next few years, then dropping to 30.4% by 2021.

Federal debt is also assumed to cross the $1 trillion mark around 2031. It is currently $635 billion.

“The report is very concerning, but it’s not surprising,” Conservative finance critic Gerard Deltell told the Sun. “We already know that Justin Trudeau’s tax-and-spend plan has failed. Full-time jobs are disappearing, taxes higher, and the only solution the Liberals have to offer is more of the same.”

These alarming forecasts are the result of the report’s authors factoring in Canada’s ageing population into its financial outlook. Over the coming decades, an increasing number of baby boomers will move into retirement while relying on fewer workers in younger cohorts to bankroll government services.

“What really concerns me is that they’re borrowing for current spending,” adds Lee. “It’s one thing to borrow to buy a house. It’s another thing to borrow to buy groceries. They’re borrowing to finance consumption instead of long-term assets. I don’t think it’s going to end well.”

The report is not all doom and gloom, though. It acknowledges there are upsides should growth improve and points out that government could make financially-sound choices to send the numbers in more optimistic directions.

“While no single initiative can guarantee sustainable growth in our prosperity, the potential payoff from acting now in a broad range of policy areas is very large, as measures tend to reinforce themselves over time,” the document advises.

•Returning to surplus

Trudeau’s campaign promise: 2019

Finance department’s forecast: 2055

•Reducing the debt ratio

Trudeau’s campaign promise: down to 27% by 2019

Finance department’s forecast: still up at 30.4% by 2021

•Still not balancing itself

“The commitment needs to be a commitment to grow the economy and the budget will balance itself.”

— Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, 2014

•Gloomy future

“I don’t think it’s going to end well.”

— Ian Lee, Carleton University

•Federal debt projections

-2017: $635 billion

-2021: $746 billion

-2030: $992 billion

-2045: $1.5 trillion

[Weedy1]

Shhhhh if we ignore it it will go away!!! Besides, as Trudeau says, "Deficits are a way of measuring the kind of growth and kind of success that a Government is actually able to create." I suspect by the time his ass is off the throne we will have experienced a whole lot of success.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbw1Bb32gQ0

[Newview01]

I wonder how many members of the Liberal party have a clue what they are doing to Canada.

[Bitumen Bullet]

Originally Posted by Newview01

I wonder how many members of the Liberal party have a clue what they are doing to Canada.

I'm sure most do, at least the few I've gotten to know over the years. Thing is they have little concern for the Canada you want to build. Canada today is very much the creation of the Liberal Party. A Canada that is almost perfect for them, one very much as it was when it started.

After 150yrs, still dependent on the export of resources to a single market, who happens to be our largest "investor" and our protector. Still has Canada importing more goods than they export, and barely balanced in good years. Canada still has Apartheid policies, still has the "regions" and Canada's economic policies supporting the "real" Canada, the once province of Canada. Still has a "Royal" elite class with their snouts firmly in a trough Canadians have to keep filled.

Liberals know this, it is the Canada they want, it is the Canada they have built.

[Dewey Cox]

Originally Posted by Newview01

I wonder how many members of the Liberal party have a clue what they are doing to Canada.

They know. Anyone who can tie their own shoes knows we can't sustain this kind of spending.
The truly evil part is that they're doing it anyway.

[rugatika]

Originally Posted by Dewey Cox

They know. Anyone who can tie their own shoes knows we can't sustain this kind of spending.
The truly evil part is that they're doing it anyway.

Has anyone actually seen Trudeau tying his own shoes? Just asking.

[Dewey Cox]

Velcro

[Grizzly Adams]

Americans are in the same boat, as are many other Western countries, we're living in a house of cards, one little misstep and .......

Grizz

[rugatika]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Adams

Americans are in the same boat, as are many other Western countries, we're living in a house of cards, one little misstep and .......

Grizz

Yep, it will be interesting to see if Trump manages to get control of spending and/or increase the economy to account for the spending/debt, or if he's just another politician. I'm actually slightly hopeful for USA.

[ArtG]

Originally Posted by rugatika

Yep, it will be interesting to see if Trump manages to get control of spending and/or increase the economy to account for the spending/debt, or if he's just another politician. I'm actually slightly hopeful for USA.

I'm with you on this one. At this rate moving to the states is looking promising.

[FishingMOM]

Buried government report reveals looming fiscal crisis


FIRST POSTED: WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 04, 2017 06:35 PM EST | UPDATED: WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 04, 2017 06:43 PM EST

A shocking new report quietly released by the federal government admits that their finances could collapse in the coming decades if politicians don’t make responsible choices.

Two days before Christmas, when most politicians and their staffers had long left their offices for the holiday break, the finance department released — without fanfare or wide notice — a surprising update on long-term economic and fiscal projections.

The report warns that lower than expected growth combined with higher program spending “would be sufficient to put at risk the fiscal sustainability of the federal government.”

Ian Lee, who teaches at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, says Canadians should certainly be worried about these numbers.

“I’m old enough to remember when Pierre Elliott Trudeau first took us into deficits, which were much smaller ones than they are today,” Lee told the Toronto Sun in a telephone interview. “Everybody back then said ‘What’s the big deal?’ But the problem is that debt started to snowball and get out of control. It’s so difficult for politicians to say no and to make hard, difficult choices.”

The forecast also assumes that the budget won’t be balanced until 2055. Projections show it peaking at $38.8 billion in 2035.

This goes against a key Liberal campaign promise.

During the 2015 election, Justin Trudeau pledged to balance the budget before the next election, in 2019. Yet, in the fall fiscal update announced this past November, Trudeau’s Liberal government pushed the goal posts back and projected deficits until 2021 and beyond.

These new assumptions from the finance department now call all of the Liberal government’s numbers into question.

This is not the only alarming figure revealed.

Another key fiscal promise of the prime minister’s campaign was to bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio to 27% by 2019. Yet the finance report also places this accomplishment out of reach.

It instead projects the debt ratio consistently hovering around 31% for the next few years, then dropping to 30.4% by 2021.

Federal debt is also assumed to cross the $1 trillion mark around 2031. It is currently $635 billion.

“The report is very concerning, but it’s not surprising,” Conservative finance critic Gerard Deltell told the Sun. “We already know that Justin Trudeau’s tax-and-spend plan has failed. Full-time jobs are disappearing, taxes higher, and the only solution the Liberals have to offer is more of the same.”

These alarming forecasts are the result of the report’s authors factoring in Canada’s ageing population into its financial outlook. Over the coming decades, an increasing number of baby boomers will move into retirement while relying on fewer workers in younger cohorts to bankroll government services.

“What really concerns me is that they’re borrowing for current spending,” adds Lee. “It’s one thing to borrow to buy a house. It’s another thing to borrow to buy groceries. They’re borrowing to finance consumption instead of long-term assets. I don’t think it’s going to end well.”

The report is not all doom and gloom, though. It acknowledges there are upsides should growth improve and points out that government could make financially-sound choices to send the numbers in more optimistic directions.

“While no single initiative can guarantee sustainable growth in our prosperity, the potential payoff from acting now in a broad range of policy areas is very large, as measures tend to reinforce themselves over time,” the document advises.

•Returning to surplus

Trudeau’s campaign promise: 2019

Finance department’s forecast: 2055

•Reducing the debt ratio

Trudeau’s campaign promise: down to 27% by 2019

Finance department’s forecast: still up at 30.4% by 2021

•Still not balancing itself

“The commitment needs to be a commitment to grow the economy and the budget will balance itself.”

— Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, 2014

•Gloomy future

“I don’t think it’s going to end well.”

— Ian Lee, Carleton University

•Federal debt projections

-2017: $635 billion

-2021: $746 billion

-2030: $992 billion

-2045: $1.5 trillion

[The Cook]

Originally Posted by Newview01

I wonder how many members of the Liberal party have a clue what they are doing to Canada.

They have no clue. They still think he is the Messiah. I had to walk away from a political discussion with a good friend( who thinks the sun shines out of jt's butt) that ended up going sideways. There is no way they will listen to any thing they do not want to hear and resort to Harper bashing at the drop of a pin.

[dmcbride]

Looks like the Liberals are going to out do Harper's debt of 144.7 billion not including the years of surplus in a lot less time without a world wide recession.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/multimedia/ca...2015-1.3042571

[lmtada]

Economy will implode before 2045. Buying more Guns/Ammo. I will still be around, 2045. Unless accident,or sickness.

[purgatory.sv]

Both threads have interesting information.

http://www.outdoorsmenforum.ca/showthread.php?t=311692

[Trochu]

Depressing. I'd much, much rather put up with short turn pain, get the debt and spending under control, and be the country that is loaning the money out and receiving the interest payments. Baffles me how the majority/politicians can't see this would be a much better scenario for our country. Switzerland has lent the US almost $200 billion. I don't know what the interest would be on a $200 billion dollar loan, but even at 0.1% annually, thats almost a billion annually. And what does Switzerland have for natural resources?

[qwert]

Originally Posted by Trochu

snip
And what does Switzerland have for natural resources?

A Rothschild / BIS printing press.

It can print (create) money (credits) out of thin air.

Pretty smart business model.
We are the fools for paying (taxing) interest (and principal) on credits created out of thin air,
when we own a Bank (Bank of Canada) that can do the same thing,
then we can pay interest and profit dividends to ourselves just like we did in the most prosperous years (1937-1072) of our history.
It allowed us to fight a war, build a large navy, the seaway, the DEW line, the Trans Canada Hwy and microwave network, hospitals and universities and more.

http://www.comer.org/

[urban rednek]

Originally Posted by Newview01

I wonder how many members of the Liberal party have a clue what they are doing to Canada.

It is not just the party members currently in power, although they are the most obvious representation of the problem. The problem is systemic within our society, the result of 4+ decades of social engineering. They have slowly but surely been wearing down the fabric of western society and creating the perfect storm of a self-obsessed proletariat addicted to government welfare that is willing to attack anyone that attempts to jeopardize their ongoing entitlement.
At the rate we are going, we are only 2-3 decades behind the Europeans on the slippery slope to pure socialism and failure.
Welcome to Canuckistan, soon to be the western equivalent of Greece, or Italy, or Ireland, or Portugal. Once everything is shut down, the only thing we will have left is tourism from other countries...if we are lucky.

[79ford]

I think the debt issue goes for everyone.... everyone just keeps adding debt and more debt and the meat heads at central banks just keep on lowering the i terest rates further and lenders come up with even more ridiculous loan ideas.

Dear jeebers, there are credit plans for buying tires.....tires! Probably for a car that was paid for with credit.

[lmtada]

You are close. Implosion begins 2024-2034. I will never see a CPP, OAS, cheque. Will be done, before I am Elgible. Prepare now.

Originally Posted by urban rednek

It is not just the party members currently in power, although they are the most obvious representation of the problem. The problem is systemic within our society, the result of 4+ decades of social engineering. They have slowly but surely been wearing down the fabric of western society and creating the perfect storm of a self-obsessed proletariat addicted to government welfare that is willing to attack anyone that attempts to jeopardize their ongoing entitlement.
At the rate we are going, we are only 2-3 decades behind the Europeans on the slippery slope to pure socialism and failure.
Welcome to Canuckistan, soon to be the western equivalent of Greece, or Italy, or Ireland, or Portugal. Once everything is shut down, the only thing we will have left is tourism from other countries...if we are lucky.

[Redfrog]

To get back on track a few things need to happen.

Fire the budget....It was supposed to balance itself and has failed.

Hire the Great Wallendas, they are the only ones with a hope of balancing this mess.

Ontario is just booming!!!!!! Their debt is 300 billion. Not bad eh? nearly half of all of Canada's. Talk about over achievers.

[dmcbride]

The spin the CBC can put on a story.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/deca...neau-1.3923060

Federal numbers released quietly by the government late last month are painting a bleak picture of Canada's financial future — one filled with decades of deficits.

The report, published on the Finance Department website two days before Christmas, predicts that barring any policy changes the federal government could be on track to run annual shortfalls until at least 2050-51.

The document says that if such a scenario plays out, the federal debt could climb past $1.5 trillion by that same year — more than double its current level.

To help explain the prediction, the report points to the major economic challenge caused by the gradual retirement of baby boomers. The demographic shift is expected to shrink work-force participation, erode labour productivity and drive up expenditures for things like elderly benefits.

However, the report cautions that its projections are intended to represent a plausible baseline and insists they are not forecasts because long-term estimates are inherently uncertain.

For example, the document estimates policies that successfully boost labour force participation and productivity over the coming decades have the potential to increase economic growth by as much as 22 per cent by 2055 and improve the outlook.

[rugatika]

After running the country deep in the hole would anyone care to take a guess at the two choices we will be "presented" with to "save" us from our own government? Huge increases in taxes or huge increases in immigration.

Ever get the feeling you've seen this movie before?

[dmcbride]

Originally Posted by rugatika

After running the country deep in the hole would anyone care to take a guess at the two choices we will be "presented" with to "save" us from our own government? Huge increases in taxes or huge increases in immigration.

Ever get the feeling you've seen this movie before?

I'm betting on both.

[Newview01]

Originally Posted by qwert

A Rothschild / BIS printing press.

It can print (create) money (credits) out of thin air.

Pretty smart business model.
We are the fools for paying (taxing) interest (and principal) on credits created out of thin air,
when we own a Bank (Bank of Canada) that can do the same thing,
then we can pay interest and profit dividends to ourselves just like we did in the most prosperous years (1937-1072) of our history.
It allowed us to fight a war, build a large navy, the seaway, the DEW line, the Trans Canada Hwy and microwave network, hospitals and universities and more.

http://www.comer.org/

This.

[Frosty Tracks]

Cheer up Trudeau will legalize pot and hope everyone has to much of a buzz on to notice his short comings , or really won't care lol

[Scott N]

Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways. This is how budgets balance themselves.

[MAC]

Originally Posted by dmcbride

The spin the CBC can put on a story.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/deca...neau-1.3923060

Federal numbers released quietly by the government late last month are painting a bleak picture of Canada's financial future — one filled with decades of deficits.

The report, published on the Finance Department website two days before Christmas, predicts that barring any policy changes the federal government could be on track to run annual shortfalls until at least 2050-51.

The document says that if such a scenario plays out, the federal debt could climb past $1.5 trillion by that same year — more than double its current level.

To help explain the prediction, the report points to the major economic challenge caused by the gradual retirement of baby boomers. The demographic shift is expected to shrink work-force participation, erode labour productivity and drive up expenditures for things like elderly benefits.

However, the report cautions that its projections are intended to represent a plausible baseline and insists they are not forecasts because long-term estimates are inherently uncertain.

For example, the document estimates policies that successfully boost labour force participation and productivity over the coming decades have the potential to increase economic growth by as much as 22 per cent by 2055 and improve the outlook.

Whats the spin. The story states its only a projection, which it is . Do you think Trudeau is going to be prime minister for the next 28 years.
Something will change before 2045 comes around.
Is Trudeau a dope for going this route. You Bet.

This is just click Bait or someone just agitating the AO posters. Lord knows AO cant ignore an opportunity for a good rant on the Liberals.

Things will change long before the projections

MAC

[From The Hip]

Originally Posted by MAC

Whats the spin. The story states its only a projection, which it is . Do you think Trudeau is going to be prime minister for the next 28 years.
Something will change before 2045 comes around.
Is Trudeau a dope for going this route. You Bet.

This is just click Bait or someone just agitating the AO posters. Lord knows AO cant ignore an opportunity for a good rant on the Liberals.

Things will change long before the projections

MAC

Hopefully the "change" is me winning the lotto max tomorrow night.First thing I would do is transfer the money off shore then buy the 8 acre tropical island that I want.Get my pilots licence and buy a Grumman Goose.After that all Canada means to me is a mailing address and a valid passport.

FTH