Question about the failed Teck proposal

[Fisherdan]

I was confused about the Teck proposal — specifically if it would be good for the average Albertan. What are your thoughts on the following:

1. We currently don’t have pipeline capacity. A surplus of oil results, and drives the price of Alberta oil down.

2. With keystone and Trans Mountain operating, I’m told that we still won’t have enough shipping capacity. I’m not sure that this is true. With existing operations, Alberta oil production is scheduled to rise over the next number of years.

3. Let’s say that, in a separate universe, Teck’s oil sands operation magically did come online. Wouldn’t that simply flood the market with more oil and drive the price back down again? Down to levels where no real royalties are being paid?

Am I incorrect or missing something in this very basic analysis? I know it’s a hot issue right now. Just trying to get a more complete perspective.

[catnthehat]

Originally Posted by Fisherdan

I was confused about the Teck proposal — specifically if it would be good for the average Albertan. What are your thoughts on the following:

1. We currently don’t have pipeline capacity. A surplus of oil results, and drives the price of Alberta oil down.

2. With keystone and Trans Mountain operating, I’m told that we still won’t have enough shipping capacity. I’m not sure that this is true. With existing operations, Alberta oil production is scheduled to rise over the next number of years.

3. Let’s say that, in a separate universe, Teck’s oil sands operation magically did come online. Wouldn’t that simply flood the market with more oil and drive the price back down again? Down to levels where no real royalties are being paid?

Am I incorrect or missing something in this very basic analysis? I know it’s a hot issue right now. Just trying to get a more complete perspective.

Why do you think the people are up in arms about the pipeline and other industrial projects not going through ?!
They are all rolled into one and there was hope that we might just get back on our feet again.
They only thing going through the minds of people in the Fort McMurray region that I have talked with lately is absolute hatred for Idjits like Trudeau, Suzuki, and all of those terrorists that think they are actually doing good by blocking railroads, vandalizing property a f screeming discrimination .
These events of late make it very difficult for a person to think clearly and without prejudice , because others are not .
Cat

[Big Grey Wolf]

Fisherdan, you are correct in your analysis. Too much production of bitumen without pipelines, especially to tide water means dem Americans get cheap Alberta oil.

[sk270]

It's been said a lot recently on this forum but we are not going to get out of this mess until the Federal Government (read Justin) starts to exert some leadership. Once a project is approved, the Government has to stop allowing the opponents to make endless court challenges and set up illegal blockades and demonstrations.

The likelihood of Justin reconciling his group hug approach to climate change with his uncertainty about resource extraction is pretty low. I am very pessimistic about seeing the necessary leadership coming from Ottawa.

[Smoky buck]

Do to the ongoing protests and cancellations of the pipeline projects in this country make it so the Teck mine would not be a profitable venture in my opinion. Odds are back in 2011 Teck like many others assumed some pipelines would be completed or nearing competition but the time the approval process was completed. Fast forward to today with the instability in Canada no pipelines are completed and you cannot predict if or when any will be completed

I bet if there was a reliable deadline for pipeline completion Teck would have continued forward and at the most delayed construction. Now if you look at what is going on in Canada nothing is reliable, all projects are full of uncertainty and you cannot even trust if they will be completed within 10years. Of course Teck decided a 20 billion investment was too risky at this time

It’s all one big connected web

[gunluvr]

I'd rather have a surplus of oil than a pipeline with nothing in it.
A farmer doesn't stop planting crops because his grain truck is too small.
If we can get fairer prices for our oil once tmx is built we will suddenly want all the oil we can ship. Then once the Turd is kicked to the curb we can build more pipelines.
Some optimism would be very welcome in the current state of affairs.

[dth_]

To me, it's not exactly about getting the project done and having another oil sands project online. I agree that while it's a net positive for the economy, it will only cause pipeline constraints again in the future due solely to fact it's probably impossible to ever build another interprovincial pipeline at this point.

The importance of Teck walking away from this project is symbolic in nature and the message it sends to industry. It shows the world once again how hostile the political climate is in this country to invest any amount of capital. Teck has spent $1 billion over nearly a decade to try and get the approvals for this project. Trans mountain has been the same debacle, and now it is costing the tax payers.

It is Trudeaus thinking that "this is what it takes to get it right". How can Canada compete with other jurisdictions if every project takes 10 years and north of $1 billion for approval and legal hurdles before a shovel even hits the dirt. If I was looking at breaking ground on ANY industrial infrastructure project, Canada would be the last place I would look.

Contrary to what CBC would like everyone to believe, if it was purely an economic thing due to commodity prices, Teck would have slammed the brakes on in 2016 and stopped the bleeding then.

[CritterCommander]

When you put the political process at the end of a regulatory process, this is what you get. Massive uncertainity.

What needs to happen is projects go through the political process first. Is there any support? Yes, then here's a comprehensive and complete list of all the goal posts to go through and once all the check marks are in place, all we need is notification of your intention to begin construction. If no, then save a big whack of money and go elsewhere. Too simple right?

[bertha]

Originally Posted by dth_

To me, it's not exactly about getting the project done and having another oil sands project online. I agree that while it's a net positive for the economy, it will only cause pipeline constraints again in the future due solely to fact it's probably impossible to ever build another interprovincial pipeline at this point.

The importance of Teck walking away from this project is symbolic in nature and the message it sends to industry. It shows the world once again how hostile the political climate is in this country to invest any amount of capital. Teck has spent $1 billion over nearly a decade to try and get the approvals for this project. Trans mountain has been the same debacle, and now it is costing the tax payers.

It is Trudeaus thinking that "this is what it takes to get it right". How can Canada compete with other jurisdictions if every project takes 10 years and north of $1 billion for approval and legal hurdles before a shovel even hits the dirt. If I was looking at breaking ground on ANY industrial infrastructure project, Canada would be the last place I would look.

Contrary to what CBC would like everyone to believe, if it was purely an economic thing due to commodity prices, Teck would have slammed the brakes on in 2016 and stopped the bleeding then.

nice opinion

[gunluvr]

Originally Posted by CritterCommander

When you put the political process at the end of a regulatory process, this is what you get. Massive uncertainity.

What needs to happen is projects go through the political process first. Is there any support? Yes, then here's a comprehensive and complete list of all the goal posts to go through and once all the check marks are in place, all we need is notification of your intention to begin construction. If no, then save a big whack of money and go elsewhere. Too simple right?

If a liberal government is in power that in itself is a clear message to stay away. At least from western Canada. Anti prosperity, anti common sense and anarchy.
But hey, we got gender-nuetral bathrooms, pride parades and legal pot. What a country.