Some good news for a change. KXL to get built !!

[sjemac]

Lay of 20,000 that were working. Then announce an approval of nobody who will be working anytime soon. Rolly Polly Ollie is still selling used cars.

[Abe Johnsen]

We were all p!ssed when skippy bought a pipeline to nowhere, but now what 7 billion imaginary $ for a pipeline going south ? Where we’re going to be bent over for every barrel? It’s beyond stupid for government to get more involved then the regulatory process, let the private sector run the business side . A complete cluster f .. one customer that always works right


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OL_JR]

I get a kick out of the shortsightedness of people. It wasn't that long ago that the energy prophets were preaching that we were running out of oil. It will never go below $100 a barrell again. Fill up soon as gas will be $2.00 a litre before you know it.

It's been ****ty, I get it. I work in the energy industry and trust me the higher ups have been doing there due diligence in using the mantra to fill their boots so to speak.

We are in a dip right now but global demand in the long term will keep climbing and this pipeline is a good thing. No better time to build it.

[flyrodfisher]

Originally Posted by OL_JR

We are in a dip right now but global demand in the long term will keep climbing and this pipeline is a good thing. No better time to build it.

I'm torn on this one.
It may be a good time to build it....but...it may be sitting empty for some time.

For example; https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ca...203212801.html

From the above link;
"Canadian heavy crude has become so cheap that the cost of shipping it to refineries exceeds the value of the oil itself, a situation that may result in even more oil-sands producers shutting operations."

"Enbridge charges between about $7 to a little over $9 a barrel to ship heavy oil to Texas, excluding additional charges such as for power, according to tariff documents."

[alpinebeers]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Alpinebeers,

You bet I am sarcastic and if that offends you, too bad. How many families have you seen destroyed in Alberta since the 2014 oil crash? If you have seen what I have seen, you would be as sarcastic as me.

You see, I am so vicious because I care about my family in Alberta, and all the other families in Alberta, who will be paying for Trudeau's abuse of the West for Decades.

If you have any pull to get the North West Coast line built, use it and quit with your naïve comments.

If you think that Alberta will get International price IFFF any of our oil gets loaded from the Gulf Coast, we will not see one nickel of benefit for the price. The Oil is US Oil the second it crosses the border, and it will be the US purchasers who will take the profit, not Alberta producers.

Do you finally get the point of my post?

If JT is your Brother, or you are JT, grab a brain and get the Northern Gateway line built while we have the chance to get it done with no opposition.

Now that the Hereditary Chief / Non Hereditary Chief has testified in the House of Commons that the Government of Canada was played by self interested con artists playing the FN Monarchy card, we can move forward.

With support of all the stake holders on the route to Prince Rupert, Alberta can safely sell its Oil to the World Market for a change, without US exploitation.

Call it Job Creation, call it Nation building, call it a Tax Windfall (Liberals love to spend tax money) but get the Northern Gateway Line built now. It is the only hope to get a fair price for Alberta Oil. Keystone XL is just an extension of the give away to the US.

Drewski

All I got from this message is you have some serious anger issues.

No one is going to tell me that getting more crude of of Alberta is a bad thing I’m sorry.

Some people will look for anything to complain about it seems.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Smoky buck]

It is good long term to get this pipeline built but short term with oil prices it’s not going to boost the oil industry. Like others have mentioned this will not improve the price Canada gets for oil because it is still selling to the US market. This only creates a more efficient and safer way to increase the amount of oil we can ship to that market.

I won’t be jumping for joy thinking this pipeline will solve a thing but I see potential for when oil prices improve. The problem is when will oil prices reach a level that it is profitable to utilize this pipeline?

[Penner]

We currently have a -300k BBL per day pipeline deficit. Trans Mountain if ever built is ~900k BBL per day which replaces the existing ~300k BBL per day line. At current production capacity, 1/2 of Trans Mountain capacity is already spoken for (should sneak a second line in there while the trench is open). Pushing XL will open up additional capacity (~800k BBL) which will eliminate one issue that currently exists with regards to investing in the Alberta oil patch which is having the ability to get product to market regardless of where that market is. Certainly an Energy East or Northern Gateway would be have preferred but next to zero chance those ever happens due to the social ideologies that unfortunately exist in our World today. And the US is the biggest consumer of Oil today (almost twice that of China) so no better customer than that.

FYI most major producers in Alberta sell synthetic blended crude which does not sell at WCS, it sells closer to WTI and for certain blends, even higher. This is why when the NDP cut production a few years back there was backlash in the industry as it hurt more producers then it helped. Also note as the price per BBL is depressed the price for diluent is also depressed helping to reduce production costs to some extent.

End of day Kudos on the investment and getting this P/L going. End of day just need the Republicans to get another term or kiss the $1B goodbye... guess I’m saying we need Trump for 4 more years (and that just feels so wrong for some reason). End of day we need to plan for the future as failing to plan today is planning to fail tomorrow whether that be 5 weeks, 5 months, or 5 years from now.

[zabbo]

Originally Posted by alpinebeers

Ill do my best to splain (what are you 5?) my side to you ????


Do you believe we will be in this environment when this pipe is completed? I would wager that the half a dozen or so oil executives that signed off to fill this pipe believe there is a need for it in two years. Not to mention the Canadian Company willing to invest another 10 billion dollars in it.

Sure your 100% right we are in tough times right now but please explain to me how your negativity towards this project is warranted. Do you think this is bad deal for Alberta and Canada? Do you think it will impact us negatively? If so how?

I see the glass as half full and this is a major win for our Country and the Oil industry in Alberta.

After garnering a bit more information regarding this "monumental win" for Alberta and canada, I find out Alberta is contributing 1.5 billion to the project. If that isn't enough, we are also giving loan guarantees for another six billion dollars. If I was one of those six execs or the canadian company, T C pipelines, I'd be all over pushing this project ahead too! The execs you are so willing to "wager" believe there will be a need for this in two years are very willing to "wager" over seven billion Alberta tax dollars, that two years from now this whole mess will be a distant memory in the rear view mirror. I truly hope that is the truth. The Alberta oil business has been boom and bust for seventy or more years. Ever see the old bumper sticker?, "Please God, let there be another boom. This time I promise I won't pizz it away!" This "bust" is so very different from any of those in the past. Over the last few months, he international oil business has been a mess. In the past two or three weeks the entire planet has been turned upside down and inside out. Globally, governments are pledging well over 5 trillion dollars to shore up economies in chaos. This money is all going on a credit card that's already stretched to the limit.

Alpine, if I've rained on your parade, I truly am sorry. My intention is not be negative or a killjoy. Just to tell it like I see it, without any sugar coating. 2023 is the expected completion date and I sure hope, for all our sake, the pipe runneth over and the money flows freely. In the mean time hang on tight, cause it's going to be a rough ride! Sure hope it won't be a long one as well!

[Drewski Canuck]

Many years ago A Survey Company President told me a very obvious truth.

"You have to get up pretty early in the morning to get the best of an American."

Make the US your only Customer, and the US will make sure they can keep the prices down by manipulating the market. Plain and Simple.

Now Alpinebeers, do you understand the problem with committing to push more into the pot when you already hold a losing poker hand?

But if some other NATION was willing to buy our oil, at world market price, and the other Major Customer saw that there was competition in the market place, what do you think would happen? Ever go to an Auction and see two guys paying more than new for some piece of junk because they both needed / wanted it? That is how the seller gets a fair price: Competition.

Now call your buddy JT and straighten him out before Alberta spends another 7 Billion.

Drewski

[bessiedog]

Originally Posted by alpinebeers

All I got from this message is you have some serious anger issues.

No one is going to tell me that getting more crude of of Alberta is a bad thing I’m sorry.

Some people will look for anything to complain about it seems.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Actually.... Drewskie is prolly one of the smartest guys on this board. And i'm not April Fooling either.

Dude is selfless in offering help and resources to many members here on this Board... including me. So shut the anger issue idea down.... it ain't there.

He might not be up to suffering fools today.... of all days... heh

I'd really consider the idea that Drewskie is just seeing things a little clearer and better than you bub.

[Big Grey Wolf]

Drewski for Prime Minister!

[alpinebeers]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Many years ago A Survey Company President told me a very obvious truth.

"You have to get up pretty early in the morning to get the best of an American."

Make the US your only Customer, and the US will make sure they can keep the prices down by manipulating the market. Plain and Simple.

Now Alpinebeers, do you understand the problem with committing to push more into the pot when you already hold a losing poker hand?

But if some other NATION was willing to buy our oil, at world market price, and the other Major Customer saw that there was competition in the market place, what do you think would happen? Ever go to an Auction and see two guys paying more than new for some piece of junk because they both needed / wanted it? That is how the seller gets a fair price: Competition.

Now call your buddy JT and straighten him out before Alberta spends another 7 Billion.

Drewski

Why do you assume JT is my buddy? Im the farthest thing from a liberal and resent the comment. Statements like that make your arguments juvenile and worthless no matter how good they may be.

Again I think this is a win for Alberta and Canada, you have your opinions I have mine and they seem to differ. So be it

[MK2750]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Many years ago A Survey Company President told me a very obvious truth.

"You have to get up pretty early in the morning to get the best of an American."

Make the US your only Customer, and the US will make sure they can keep the prices down by manipulating the market. Plain and Simple.

Now Alpinebeers, do you understand the problem with committing to push more into the pot when you already hold a losing poker hand?

But if some other NATION was willing to buy our oil, at world market price, and the other Major Customer saw that there was competition in the market place, what do you think would happen? Ever go to an Auction and see two guys paying more than new for some piece of junk because they both needed / wanted it? That is how the seller gets a fair price: Competition.

Now call your buddy JT and straighten him out before Alberta spends another 7 Billion.

Drewski

Of course you are right but there are a couple of factors that one has to consider.

Texas and the rest of the oil industry is an enormous economic driver and has an enormous political pull. They are struggling and have been for some time. As an oil producing Province we forget that low oil and gas prices are a good thing for big industry. Trump knows this of course but he is rightfully getting major blow back as industry struggles and the goose that lays the golden eggs is no longer laying.

Trudeau is no doubt also starting to figure out (or hopefully will eventually) exactly how we escaped the the 2008 down turn and how vital the oil industry is to all Canadians.

The US is planning a 2 trillion dollar infrastructure splurge to help the country recover. They will need enormous amounts of oil as Trump is talking about paving every road and fixing every bridge until things pick up.

He is also rattling the sabres towards Russia and the Saudis over this oil game. He does have the balls to put on tariffs and Trudeau will have an opportunity to follow suit. If he is too stupid (which is also likely) we will benefit from the price increases anyway.

The ideal scenario of course is to get both done as soon as it is safe to do so. The massive debt we are incurring may force these projects forward with little resistance. With selling alternatives the volume will be flowing and that is all that matters to us working folks anyway.

Using your poker analogy; No matter how smart you are, you still have to play the cards that you are dealt. Kenney has some smart guys advising him. This may not be the ideal scenario but it is better than folding IMO. What has waiting for some better cards gotten us so far?

[sns2]

Originally Posted by MK2750

Of course you are right but there are a couple of factors that one has to consider.

Texas and the rest of the oil industry is an enormous economic driver and has an enormous political pull. They are struggling and have been for some time. As an oil producing Province we forget that low oil and gas prices are a good thing for big industry. Trump knows this of course but he is rightfully getting major blow back as industry struggles and the goose that lays the golden eggs is no longer laying.

Trudeau is no doubt also starting to figure out (or hopefully will eventually) exactly how we escaped the the 2008 down turn and how vital the oil industry is to all Canadians.

The US is planning a 2 trillion dollar infrastructure splurge to help the country recover. They will need enormous amounts of oil as Trump is talking about paving every road and fixing every bridge until things pick up.

He is also rattling the sabres towards Russia and the Saudis over this oil game. He does have the balls to put on tariffs and Trudeau will have an opportunity to follow suit. If he is too stupid (which is also likely) we will benefit from the price increases anyway.

The ideal scenario of course is to get both done as soon as it is safe to do so. The massive debt we are incurring may force these projects forward with little resistance. With selling alternatives the volume will be flowing and that is all that matters to us working folks anyway.

Using your poker analogy; No matter how smart you are, you still have to play the cards that you are dealt. Kenney has some smart guys advising him. This may not be the ideal scenario but it is better than folding IMO. What has waiting for some better cards gotten us so far?

Great post ^^^^

[bessiedog]

Yup

Very good analysis by MK

[bsmitty27]

Originally Posted by MK2750

Kenney has some smart guys advising him. This may not be the ideal scenario but it is better than folding IMO. What has waiting for some better cards gotten us so far?

I hope he has gotten some smarter people advising him because everything that man touched up untill now turned to ****!
Brad

[Drewski Canuck]

Sometimes in life, you get a chance to turn back time.

Now is the time to turn back the Northern Gateway decision. Trans Mountain will flow some oil to Vancouver, but the Vancouver ports are already clogged, and with an endangered resident pod of Killer whales, it will not make a good oil tanker route.

PLAY THE WHALE CARD NOW!

The Port of Prince Rupert is perfectly situated for large tanker traffic, and is sheltered because of the barrier islands. Tankers get out into the open Pacific with ease compared to Vancouver.

All the Engineering and consultation on Northern Gateway is already done, so mobilization can be done quickly.

DO NOT endorse selling all our future capacity to the Gulf Coast Refineries. They have been reaping massive profits, by taking the oil that the US Owners have produced in Alberta's Oil Sands, and sold to their own Refineries for a song.

The Oil money is not being made in Canada, is not being paid in Canada, and is not being taxed in Canada. That is the problem when the game is rigged from the start.

If I offend Alpinebeers for association with Justin "Off Shore Trust Fund" Trudeau, I am truly sorry and apologize.

The point is simple: Everyone should be contacting the Feds to demand that Northern Gateway be built now.

Do not hang your hat on the KXL line, especially when it means more of the same treatment by the Multi National refiners on the Gulf Coast who are exploiting this price differential that they have created by NOT paying fair market value.

Drewski

[MountainTi]

A little lesson on oil pricing for those interested in reading. Will learn a thing or two if you take the time. It is not black and white as so many assume.

And yes, KXL is a good thing, and MUCH needed.


https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/mar...iscount-to-wti


I spent a lifetime in the upstream/exploration side of things. Lately I'm hanging out further downstream (processing). Definitely learning all products coming out of the ground aren't created equal.

[elk eater]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

Even Justin Trudeau realizes that he will need all the economic activity Canada can muster (THAT MEANS ANY WAY TO RAISE TAX REVENUE) to pay the bill after the Pandemic is over.

Drewski

The pandemic will balance itself !!! Won’t it

[flyrodfisher]

Originally Posted by MountainTi

A little lesson on oil pricing for those interested in reading. Will learn a thing or two if you take the time. It is not black and white as so many assume.

And yes, KXL is a good thing, and MUCH needed.


https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/mar...iscount-to-wti


I spent a lifetime in the upstream/exploration side of things. Lately I'm hanging out further downstream (processing). Definitely learning all products coming out of the ground aren't created equal.

Great link.
THX for that Mountainti.
It is a bit dated with respect to production and demand numbers but still gives an excellent explanation of crude types and refinery needs/destinations for those that are not familiar with the business.

One of the problems the industry will face very very quickly is the fact that tanks are full across North America and tankers across the globe are being used as floating storage. Demand has dropped in the order of 20% due to the effects of Covid.
Producers will and are already shutting in production...there is just no home for all the oil right now...things are starting to back up.
Currently about 125,000bpd are shut in, with analysts expecting 300,000bpd to be shut in for the second quarter. Much of that will be oil sands...Suncor has already shut down one train at Ft Hills.

The question is...how long will the effects of Covid last in reducing demand?
Will demand ever come back to pre-Covid levels?...if so how long will it take?

How long will that shiny new pipeline sit empty?
Are governments/companies willing to take that gamble?...especially now?

I don't think anyone really knows the answer....

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by flyrodfisher

Great link.
THX for that Mountainti.
It is a bit dated with respect to production and demand numbers but still gives an excellent explanation of crude types and refinery needs/destinations for those that are not familiar with the business.

One of the problems the industry will face very very quickly is the fact that tanks are full across North America and tankers across the globe are being used as floating storage. Demand has dropped in the order of 20% due to the effects of Covid.
Producers will and are already shutting in production...there is just no home for all the oil right now...things are starting to back up.
Currently about 125,000bpd are shut in, with analysts expecting 300,000bpd to be shut in for the second quarter. Much of that will be oil sands...Suncor has already shut down one train at Ft Hills.

The question is...how long will the effects of Covid last in reducing demand?
Will demand ever come back to pre-Covid levels?...if so how long will it take?

How long will that shiny new pipeline sit empty?
Are governments/companies willing to take that gamble?...especially now?

I don't think anyone really knows the answer....

How much of a slowdown is that for Ft. Hills? By that I mean how many trains they run?

[flyrodfisher]

Originally Posted by MountainTi

How much of a slowdown is that for Ft. Hills? By that I mean how many trains they run?

Ft Hills goes from 2 trains down to 1.
I think that is a reduction of close to 100,000bpd

[flyrodfisher]

Talk that Ft Hills might be totally shut down....

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/massive-...-war-1.1416022

[elk eater]

So you build the KXL and start on it now when we could use the jobs and the price to build it will be at an all time low. All good right. Then you start to move product to the US at a cheap price but we still profit, just marginally. Now if you get the Northern Gateway or Energy East pipeline or at least any pipe to tide water wouldn’t it be nice to have an existing pipeline to the Americans who have an insatiable thirst for oil. Seems to me as soon as you turn the valve east or west the price of our oil to our American counterparts is gonna go up. They don’t want to pay send it to tidewater. Pretty sure they will pay up. Don’t see how we can lose. The worlds need for oil is not going away anytime soon.

[Drewski Canuck]

Originally Posted by elk eater

So you build the KXL and start on it now when we could use the jobs and the price to build it will be at an all time low. All good right. Then you start to move product to the US at a cheap price but we still profit, just marginally. Now if you get the Northern Gateway or Energy East pipeline or at least any pipe to tide water wouldn’t it be nice to have an existing pipeline to the Americans who have an insatiable thirst for oil. Seems to me as soon as you turn the valve east or west the price of our oil to our American counterparts is gonna go up. They don’t want to pay send it to tidewater. Pretty sure they will pay up. Don’t see how we can lose. The worlds need for oil is not going away anytime soon.

Amen! We have to turn the TIDE (WATER) NOW!

Drewski

[ESOXangler]

I would much rather see the investment going to increasing our refining capabilities. Sure refineries cost more but the end result is alot of profit. And they provide alot more man hours over their lifetime than the pipeline will.

[Drewski Canuck]

For Western Canada, we have plenty of Refinery Capacity. With the Government's own Refinery coming on stream, there will be plenty of Diesel, and the market for the finished product is not there. Then the question is how do you ship the product to a market, when there is no pipeline to the market?

The US has plenty of refinery capacity, so we will not sell finished product to them.

To get royalty dollars and wages paid in the patch, the path of least resistance, other than from 5 Hereditary eco terrorists and a bunch of fools in Ottawa, is the Northern Gateway Pipeline.

Drewski

[Big Grey Wolf]

Drewski is right we need "Northern Gateway or Bust" for Alberta and Canada's future. If any terrorists in BC stand in the way we need to send in the military to protect the right of way. We will have a major Corona bill$$ to pay and windmills will never pay it.

[MK2750]

Someone help me here because I don't understand. If energy east is being held up by Quebec why don't we just go as far as Ontario. There are people starving for jobs in northern Ontario and if the polling maps are correct there would be little resistance until just north of Toronto. Build refineries in northern or even central Ontario and that market would be ours.

I know we would ideally go right to NB where the existing refineries are but we do not have to completely abandon them. They could be ( the Irvings etc.) important investors with proven experience.

The french could continue to have no appetite for a pipe line and watch their energy prices soar, while the folks of Ontario could enjoy jobs and a much needed reduction in cost of living.

[hal53]

Originally Posted by MK2750

Someone help me here because I don't understand. If energy east is being held up by Quebec why don't we just go as far as Ontario. There are people starving for jobs in northern Ontario and if the polling maps are correct there would be little resistance until just north of Toronto. Build refineries in northern or even central Ontario and that market would be ours.

I know we would ideally go right to NB where the existing refineries are but we do not have to completely abandon them. They could be ( the Irvings etc.) important investors with proven experience.

The french could continue to have no appetite for a pipe line and watch their energy prices soar, while the folks of Ontario could enjoy jobs and a much needed reduction in cost of living.

Investors don't have the will to wait the length of time it takes to get a refinery approved, let alone get it online. I couldn't imagine the goat roping they would have to go through to get one built in Ontario