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03-31-2020, 09:16 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,158
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Perhaps the government assistance to the energy companies has leaked
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03-31-2020, 09:17 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Sherwood Park
Posts: 138
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Bull trap and short covers? Fiscal stimulus wont arrive in time for many companies, consumer spending has plummeted. 80% of the workforce is literally sitting idle. I'm gonna look at the fundamentals here and ignore the hype. Oil companies are in trouble, bail out or not.
As for AC, remember 2009? They are too big to fail! And that was with a conservative government
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03-31-2020, 09:57 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: one Fort or another
Posts: 768
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin
What about thoughts on Chevron and Exxon as a buy?
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Sell 25 dollar puts a couple of months out for grocery and gas money. If it doesn't go down that far, rinse and repeat. If you do get assigned, immediately slam some short-term covered calls on it - how far out of the money you choose depends how badly you want to keep it.
Lots of discussion right now too on what sort of dividend cut could happen. If a stock price tanks, a company can drop a dividend big time and still have it calculate in as the same percentage yield for new investors. When a cut is announced, the stock price will drop off the cliff again unless it was so high that a company was being bled dry. Cash flow for Exxon has been pretty good of course, so a cut is not probable. But then neither was this china-virus.
It's a way better deal today than a few months back, but I'd still put together some sort of protective position. It's a bit late for a bear put spread; too early for a call spread. No reason to go long right now either. And don't go long puts, the insurance is way too expensive.
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04-01-2020, 06:39 AM
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Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 260 Rem
Maybe Air Canada hauls a lot of freight? They are well managed and positioned to bounce back in a space that will have weeded out the weak.
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Have a look at CJT (CargoJet) if you're interested in the cargo/e-commerce surge from the explosion of online shopping recently...they are hiring 50 more pilots and are swamped as the only pure play air cargo provider in Canada.
It's fascinating to see if the surge in e-commerce continues post-COVID...while the industry was already in healthy growth (Shopify and Amazon to name just a couple), the recent move up in this trend is remarkable.
In conjunction, numerous tech companies providing cloud based applications for stay-at-home workers, students etc. have seen massive increases in usage...Microsoft reported 700%+ increases in their cloud services that compete, in scale, with AWS and Google Cloud. Could be great opportunities for investors here that believe the digitization trend will also accelerate post COVID. Also consider the 2nd derivatives of this...cybersecurity providers, virtual network providers and video conferencing/remote collaboration.
Some themes that were healthy before may see a permanent acceleration.
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04-01-2020, 07:04 AM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Full Metal Jacket
Have a look at CJT (CargoJet) if you're interested in the cargo/e-commerce surge from the explosion of online shopping recently...they are hiring 50 more pilots and are swamped as the only pure play air cargo provider in Canada.
It's fascinating to see if the surge in e-commerce continues post-COVID...while the industry was already in healthy growth (Shopify and Amazon to name just a couple), the recent move up in this trend is remarkable.
In conjunction, numerous tech companies providing cloud based applications for stay-at-home workers, students etc. have seen massive increases in usage...Microsoft reported 700%+ increases in their cloud services that compete, in scale, with AWS and Google Cloud. Could be great opportunities for investors here that believe the digitization trend will also accelerate post COVID. Also consider the 2nd derivatives of this...cybersecurity providers, virtual network providers and video conferencing/remote collaboration.
Some themes that were healthy before may see a permanent acceleration.
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We will definitely see a big change after this covid19 ends , life will not be the same again because this covid19 has change the world and ways people go about their normal habits , even people who don’t used online shopping are learning it, also find convenience of it . Hospital will be more prepared and stock more emergency items. Big shift in government policy’s .
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04-01-2020, 07:10 AM
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Camrose
Posts: 45,099
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishtank
We will definitely see a big change after this covid19 ends , life will not be the same again because this covid19 has change the world and ways people go about their normal habits , even people who don’t used online shopping are learning it, also find convenience of it . Hospital will be more prepared and stock more emergency items. Big shift in government policy’s .
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More people shopping online, is not always a good thing, As for governments changing policies, the only changes we will likely see, is governments passing more legislation to have more control over the citizens, again, not a good thing.
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Only accurate guns are interesting.
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04-01-2020, 07:33 AM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elkhunter11
More people shopping online, is not always a good thing, As for governments changing policies, the only changes we will likely see, is governments passing more legislation to have more control over the citizens, again, not a good thing.
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Never said it was a good thing ... some of these current policies felt like this is just a big experiment to see what they can get away with .with some of the thing they push through with the emergency act. Watch the political blame game afterwards. In crunch time it will show a true leader character...... Canada don’t have either .
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04-01-2020, 12:37 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 465
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Where did everyone go? Quiet around here. 
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04-01-2020, 01:09 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Leduc County
Posts: 1,079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenaturalwoodsman
Where did everyone go? Quiet around here. |
Busy doing projects. Really no point watching markets. Sure Toronto did it’s up trend yesterday but in reality what reason should the markets go up. No reason. Summer is when I look at getting back in maybe. Be careful if you are investing right now due to all the P&D plays coming online. Already watched a few pharm companies get jacked up and then tank. Those are for rookie investors
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The secret of getting ahead is getting started.Mark Twain 
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04-01-2020, 01:14 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Strathcona County
Posts: 1,896
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Watching. Waiting.
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04-01-2020, 01:24 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsalot
Busy doing projects. Really no point watching markets. Sure Toronto did it’s up trend yesterday but in reality what reason should the markets go up. No reason. Summer is when I look at getting back in maybe. Be careful if you are investing right now due to all the P&D plays coming online. Already watched a few pharm companies get jacked up and then tank. Those are for rookie investors
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I guess depends what you want to invest in. However IMO, all will not bottom at the same time, oil is bouncing all over the place in the last hour today, Trump is twitchy he simply says the word "Oil" and it goes up......
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04-01-2020, 01:56 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 367
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Ive come to realize the markets are a Ponzi scheme and not based on any solid economic fundamentals.
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04-01-2020, 03:03 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1stLand
Ive come to realize the markets are a Ponzi scheme and not based on any solid economic fundamentals.
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last one to cash out get left holding the bag....
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04-01-2020, 03:15 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1stLand
Ive come to realize the markets are a Ponzi scheme and not based on any solid economic fundamentals.
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Sentiment is a quantifiable factor in free markets...no doubt.
Hence you see individual metrics with different 'baselines' along sectors.
Good economic fundamentals are important and if you use 'time' to your benefit, the history of the markets always goes 'up and to the right'...just not in a straight line!
'Timing the market' is a proven fools game.
As retail investors if we can stay disciplined to analyzing fundamentals, avoiding confirmation bias and keep emotions out of our decisions, we can achieve an acceptable return on investments.
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04-01-2020, 03:16 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,615
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I'm sticking to my magic number of 10500 on the tsx. Can't make any sense of stocks getting run up with closed doors and 5 dollar oil. Not sure what to make of the rally but I'll just stay put till like an earlier poster said June or July when this thing straightens out even slightly or the find a vaccine or medicine for this virus thing.
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04-01-2020, 05:59 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 465
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04-01-2020, 06:38 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,843
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well we might see 7% GST after this ...or the PST 
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04-01-2020, 08:25 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 1,906
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How many of these companies like CVE and MEG aren’t going to pull through this and go bankrupt?
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04-01-2020, 08:54 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MooseRiverTrapper
How many of these companies like CVE and MEG aren’t going to pull through this and go bankrupt?
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Pretty sure thats why the government fast tracked the keystone and pushing thru on the transmountain. I think the government has a stake in these big projects some how, weather it's a loan guarantee or a bailout clause of some sort that leaves the government holding the ball...I just know that the "hot bit" and steam assisted stuff is a nite mare to shut in. Pretty much gotta keep producing and product flowing. That's probably got alot to do with it too. I sure the Saudis and the Russians know that too. We be giving oil away pretty soon.
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04-01-2020, 09:13 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pikeman06
Pretty sure thats why the government fast tracked the keystone and pushing thru on the transmountain. I think the government has a stake in these big projects some how, weather it's a loan guarantee or a bailout clause of some sort that leaves the government holding the ball...I just know that the "hot bit" and steam assisted stuff is a nite mare to shut in. Pretty much gotta keep producing and product flowing. That's probably got alot to do with it too. I sure the Saudis and the Russians know that too. We be giving oil away pretty soon.
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I really dont know how much oil will be given away. It seems to me Trump will have the oil prices fixed and WTI back at $30 long before he has enuff PPE to go around for medical staff or patients.
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04-01-2020, 09:45 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenaturalwoodsman
I really dont know how much oil will be given away. It seems to me Trump will have the oil prices fixed and WTI back at $30 long before he has enuff PPE to go around for medical staff or patients.
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I hope you are right but we ain't WTI out here for the most part and we ain't anywhere near the end of this covid thing either. I'm sure there's more storage then we know about, we max out our storage it just adds to the glut. That product has to go, with everyone locked down the consumption is way down globally I must assume.
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04-01-2020, 09:55 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 465
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Yes I just meant once WTI moves up or down all grades in North America do as well, WCS etc. I Agree Covid is definitely not over but when Trump says the word "oil" stocks move. Interesting times for sure!
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04-01-2020, 10:38 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,843
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China’s factory’s in Shenzhen are getting furloughed for 3 months due to no orders from Europe and the USA .
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04-02-2020, 06:28 AM
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Fort Sask, AB
Posts: 4,917
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I’m just not looking at the markets anymore, no sense.
Yes sure, if I’d know a month ago I would have dumped and bought it all back a week ago, but oh well.
I was approaching a big number in my portfolio, and I don’t care to say what that # was, but now down 20-25% and others are down 30% or more, then I’d say my investor guy was doing his job.
The way I look at it is, I’ve been in the industry working steady for 35 years now and none of my portfolio ever came off my pay, it is all Co portions of savings plans etc and one severance - RRSP’d.
If it all goes poof...
Still healthy and working, just need 2-3 more years than planned now.
TBark
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04-02-2020, 09:01 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 465
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Anyone see the price of oil?
I know most were waiting for summer to time the markets but... 
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04-02-2020, 07:17 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,425
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Now it’s 3m. Is anything safe?
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04-02-2020, 09:07 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: Sherwood Park
Posts: 138
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Curious how much automated trading and algorithms are playing into the volatility in the markets right now.
Very curious to see what happens between Saudi and Russia... I feel like oil isn't out of the woods just yet.
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04-02-2020, 09:24 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dth_
Curious how much automated trading and algorithms are playing into the volatility in the markets right now.
Very curious to see what happens between Saudi and Russia... I feel like oil isn't out of the woods just yet.
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For anyone interested in anything to do with Oil tomorrow should be nothing short of a Rodeo.... Trump is claiming this or that between 2 dictators. Oil could be $20 or $30 tomorrow depending on what is said or “supposedly” said. Also trump is meeting with heavy oil Exec’s tomorrow. This is a pretty Nutty situation!
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04-02-2020, 10:03 PM
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: edmonton
Posts: 3,843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenaturalwoodsman
For anyone interested in anything to do with Oil tomorrow should be nothing short of a Rodeo.... Trump is claiming this or that between 2 dictators. Oil could be $20 or $30 tomorrow depending on what is said or “supposedly” said. Also trump is meeting with heavy oil Exec’s tomorrow. This is a pretty Nutty situation!
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Trump had a dream that he spoke with Putin and the Saudis ..... cause the spokesman for Putin said no such conversation happen with the Saudis . As for market it’s a day trader dream with the volatility. Another thing is warren buffet is planning to give some desperate company a loan probably with some conditions ( like Goldman’s and bank of americas ) ... if i was lazy I would just let buffet do all the work and put my money in brk B shares .
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04-02-2020, 10:16 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishtank
Trump had a dream that he spoke with Putin and the Saudis ..... cause the spokesman for Putin said no such conversation happen with the Saudis . As for market it’s a day trader dream with the volatility. Another thing is warren buffet is planning to give some desperate company a loan probably with some conditions ( like Goldman’s and bank of americas ) ... if i was lazy I would just let buffet do all the work and put my money in brk B shares .
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Nah. I would Just Sit back and quarantine another 14 days it's way safer than the oil market or these markets in general. Or you could always wait for summer there may be a new Virus by then tho!
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