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  #151  
Old 09-20-2018, 03:43 PM
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They dropped 17% today and that was expected. I wanna see what’s gonna happen in the next two weeks with this stock.
Also, Aurora is planning to hit the us market in October and Aurora the waaaay bigger than Tilray. I would put my money on it for sure. The cooperation with Coca Cola makes it more attractive.
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  #152  
Old 09-21-2018, 01:27 PM
yz295 yz295 is offline
 
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I am highly invested in this sector and if my plan comes to fruition I will be able to retire very early and go camping and hunting all day! I got in right after the Liberals got into power and have planned to hold well past legalization. This sector is not for the faint of heart. Been through many, many, many ups and downs and the swings are huge. I saw this as a once in a lifetime opportunity and did do a bit of day trading but mostly investing. All depends on how comfortable you are with risk. PS I sleep very well at night!
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  #153  
Old 09-21-2018, 05:34 PM
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Lucky you! Care to tell us what’s your portfolio looks like? I mean what companies are you invested into and are you keep buying new IPO’s or just holding the main guys like WEED, ACB, etc.
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  #154  
Old 09-21-2018, 06:43 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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tilray drop another 30% and another 8% afterhours ... looking at the price from the pass month that its still up a whopping 400%
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  #155  
Old 09-22-2018, 12:03 PM
yz295 yz295 is offline
 
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Three major holdings are ACB, APH and WEED. I am also invested in a few small players like EMH, MPX for US exposure, OGI, TNY for beverages, MARI, HVT, TGIF, HEXO and bough CWEB at IPO.

I am not actively buying anymore now unless something major comes in line. I am happy with my portfolio and will trim some of the smaller caps post legalization once I get to see how they perform after earnings becomes a true measurement of worth. That said, companies listing on the US stock markets will continue to see some nice growth.

Good luck to everyone in the game the future is bright!
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  #156  
Old 09-22-2018, 03:26 PM
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Interesting, thank you. So I see that you are holding both tier1 and tier2 companies. Do you anticipate the takeover of the smaller ones by the larger ones? Do you anticipate any takeovers by the conglomerates like Coke or Constelation brands?
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  #157  
Old 09-22-2018, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by yz295 View Post
I am highly invested in this sector and if my plan comes to fruition I will be able to retire very early and go camping and hunting all day! I got in right after the Liberals got into power and have planned to hold well past legalization. This sector is not for the faint of heart. Been through many, many, many ups and downs and the swings are huge. I saw this as a once in a lifetime opportunity and did do a bit of day trading but mostly investing. All depends on how comfortable you are with risk. PS I sleep very well at night!
I’ve studied manias/bubbles and they all play out the same way, every single time. They go parabolic at the end and then fall off a cliff as everyone runs for the door.

If you got some big gains in the sector it would be wise to cut back your exposure to a reasonable level around 5-10% of your total portfolio. Don’t let greed or the fear of missing out get the best of you. The same scenario played out with Bitcoin last December. And it played out in countless other bubbles before that when you look back in history.

Consider John Doe who was unlucky to have invested $1,000,000 into Tilray at the top price of $300/share. John watched the stock plummet before the pain was to much and he got out at $112.50. He is now sitting on about $375000 in his account. It’s going to take him about 14.5 years to get back to even at a 7% real rate of return (375000 x 1.07^14.5). There is going to be lots of John Does out there when this bubble busts. Be careful IMHO.
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  #158  
Old 09-22-2018, 07:06 PM
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This space changes daily. Its pretty clear the big guys want in and will get in so take overs are part of the game. I do believe there will be some large deals to come. Time will tell. You seem very interested so feel free to stop by r/weedstocks on reddit. Lots of good info and conversations over there.

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Interesting, thank you. So I see that you are holding both tier1 and tier2 companies. Do you anticipate the takeover of the smaller ones by the larger ones? Do you anticipate any takeovers by the conglomerates like Coke or Constelation brands?
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  #159  
Old 09-22-2018, 07:19 PM
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I’ve studied manias/bubbles and they all play out the same way, every single time. They go parabolic at the end and then fall off a cliff as everyone runs for the door.

Of course you have. Is this brand new sector a mania or bubble? What exactly are you comparing this sector to? This is an emerging industry and Canada is leading the world.

If you got some big gains in the sector it would be wise to cut back your exposure to a reasonable level around 5-10% of your total portfolio. Don’t let greed or the fear of missing out get the best of you. The same scenario played out with Bitcoin last December. And it played out in countless other bubbles before that when you look back in history.

I have pulled out my initial investments. Comparing this sector to bitcoin isn't the same and honestly I cant take you seriously if you honestly think this is a valid comparison. These are real companies with real revenues selling a real product. Constellation Brands invested $5 billion.

Consider John Doe who was unlucky to have invested $1,000,000 into Tilray at the top price of $300/share. John watched the stock plummet before the pain was to much and he got out at $112.50. He is now sitting on about $375000 in his account. It’s going to take him about 14.5 years to get back to even at a 7% real rate of return (375000 x 1.07^14.5). There is going to be lots of John Does out there when this bubble busts. Be careful IMHO.

John Doe is an uneducated investor. That doesn't mean we are all. Anyone buying Tilray over $50 a share is a day trader swing trading or is extremely uneducated and hasn't done their due diligence. Tilray is a prime example of what happens when stupid money follows hype. Smart money was shorting Tilray.

I have watched these stocks rise and fall in huge amounts. I stated that earlier in an earlier post. These stocks aren't for the weak. You need to have a plan and hopefully you entered early. This isn't for everyone... Have a plan and trust your DD. Dont invest in a company you aren't willing to hold for 5 years unless you are a day trader.

Last edited by yz295; 09-22-2018 at 07:21 PM. Reason: formating
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  #160  
Old 09-22-2018, 07:22 PM
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Originally Posted by yz295 View Post
This space changes daily. Its pretty clear the big guys want in and will get in so take overs are part of the game. I do believe there will be some large deals to come. Time will tell. You seem very interested so feel free to stop by r/weedstocks on reddit. Lots of good info and conversations over there.
I’m interested if I can make some money. I was invested in WEED but got out at about $58. Happy that I did, it was getting too rich for my likening, lol! I still owe shares of Aurora, Cronos and few others. Reading thru reddit and other sites make my head spin like crazy. You have to sift thru lots of crap there. One day everybody screaming “ All aboard”, the next day its “Run like hell”! That’s so funny!
I’m thinking that we will start seeing take overs after production and sale start. It will depends on who gets what kind of a contract and with whom.
PS. I agree with your statement that the profits are gonna be made in a US markets. Few Canadian companies gonna be starting to trade there in the next few months and those ones I’m looking into....

Last edited by KGB; 09-22-2018 at 07:28 PM.
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  #161  
Old 09-23-2018, 07:58 AM
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Of course you have. Is this brand new sector a mania or bubble? What exactly are you comparing this sector to? This is an emerging industry and Canada is leading the world.

I have pulled out my initial investments. Comparing this sector to bitcoin isn't the same and honestly I cant take you seriously if you honestly think this is a valid comparison. These are real companies with real revenues selling a real product. Constellation Brands invested $5 billion.

John Doe is an uneducated investor. That doesn't mean we are all. Anyone buying Tilray over $50 a share is a day trader swing trading or is extremely uneducated and hasn't done their due diligence. Tilray is a prime example of what happens when stupid money follows hype. Smart money was shorting Tilray.

I have watched these stocks rise and fall in huge amounts. I stated that earlier in an earlier post. These stocks aren't for the weak. You need to have a plan and hopefully you entered early. This isn't for everyone... Have a plan and trust your DD. Dont invest in a company you aren't willing to hold for 5 years unless you are a day trader.
[/QUOTE]

Just some friendly rebuttal on the points you have made yz295.

I won’t bother going into the metrics of the weed companies valuations because they are so out of this world that it’s not even an argument. As for comparing it to Bitcoin, well, I could have chosen any of the many examples of bubbles through out history. How about the tech stocks in the Dot com bubble, the Nifty fifty stocks, etc, etc. History repeats itself over and over again was my point.

The basic industry is not new, nor is the market. The only thing changing is the legality of the product. Users in Canada and elsewhere have had a steady and willing supplier of weed for generations. Once it becomes legal we are going to see a market that will very quickly become oversupplied and that is going to mean one thing. Lower margins and declining profits or increasing losses, something that weed producers in the U.S. are already finding out.

The product has no moat around it, there is no differentiation. Think Government packaging laws like what we have for cigarettes. It is basically nothing more than an agricultural commodity that is easy to grow. As for Canada being at the forefront of this “new industry”, our competitive advantage in pot production overseas or in the US is non-existent. This is not high technology we are talking about. It’s about growing a plant and thats about all.

Remember these CEO’s are paid to do what they are doing, selling anyone who will listen a good story. Don’t believe all the fairy dust that you read or listen too. There is no track record yet. Its a lot of hype but not a lot of substance. You are paying extreme valuations for basically nothing other than hope.

I stand by my point that there are going to be lots of retail John Doe investors who are going to get crushed when this thing turns. By all means it is fine to speculate, and at this point it is nothing but pure speculation, just don’t bet the farm is my advise.

Good luck with your investments.
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  #162  
Old 09-23-2018, 08:25 AM
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Not pot related but a little tip Rnx.to. a nickel mining company that just found the biggest gold find of the century.
Just Google father's day vein
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  #163  
Old 09-23-2018, 09:06 AM
yz295 yz295 is offline
 
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Of course you have. Is this brand new sector a mania or bubble? What exactly are you comparing this sector to? This is an emerging industry and Canada is leading the world.

I have pulled out my initial investments. Comparing this sector to bitcoin isn't the same and honestly I cant take you seriously if you honestly think this is a valid comparison. These are real companies with real revenues selling a real product. Constellation Brands invested $5 billion.

John Doe is an uneducated investor. That doesn't mean we are all. Anyone buying Tilray over $50 a share is a day trader swing trading or is extremely uneducated and hasn't done their due diligence. Tilray is a prime example of what happens when stupid money follows hype. Smart money was shorting Tilray.

I have watched these stocks rise and fall in huge amounts. I stated that earlier in an earlier post. These stocks aren't for the weak. You need to have a plan and hopefully you entered early. This isn't for everyone... Have a plan and trust your DD. Dont invest in a company you aren't willing to hold for 5 years unless you are a day trader.
Just some friendly rebuttal on the points you have made yz295.

I won’t bother going into the metrics of the weed companies valuations because they are so out of this world that it’s not even an argument. As for comparing it to Bitcoin, well, I could have chosen any of the many examples of bubbles through out history. How about the tech stocks in the Dot com bubble, the Nifty fifty stocks, etc, etc. History repeats itself over and over again was my point.

I really wish you would because I do enjoy a good debate! Comparing MJ to bitcoin or tech isn't fair nor correct. Neither had revenues or actual products to sell. There was a bubble because once people realized there was a $500 million dollar company valued market cap that had no assets run from sone guys basement the stocks dropped and stop losses were triggered. I am not hear to change your mind, in fact I dont care what you invest in or dont. Painting things with a broad brush is one way to look at things, just understand there are other ways. Comparing MJ to tech or bitcoin is silly.

The basic industry is not new, nor is the market. The only thing changing is the legality of the product. Users in Canada and elsewhere have had a steady and willing supplier of weed for generations. Once it becomes legal we are going to see a market that will very quickly become oversupplied and that is going to mean one thing. Lower margins and declining profits or increasing losses, something that weed producers in the U.S. are already finding out.
This is why its important to know the companies you are investing in. Invest in companies where to believe in their CEO, have huge cash war chests and are willing to hold for 5 years.

The product has no moat around it, there is no differentiation. Think Government packaging laws like what we have for cigarettes. It is basically nothing more than an agricultural commodity that is easy to grow. As for Canada being at the forefront of this “new industry”, our competitive advantage in pot production overseas or in the US is non-existent. This is not high technology we are talking about. It’s about growing a plant and thats about all.
It does and it will. The medical side alone says otherwise. Look at all of the strains and what they can be used for. There are hundreds of millions of dollars going into the research side of things. There are Canadian companies that are setting up to be ready to go when the US gets the green light. The Canadian companies do have a HUGE advantage both in the US market and globally. ACB, APH and WEED all have international divisions and are shipping plants by the plane load. Look at Germany, Australia and Greece. Again I dont mean to be disrespectful. Its not just about growing a plant. Its not just that simple and to think it is you aren't looking at the product or big picture. I think we will need to agree to disagree here. MJ is big business and Canada is leading the world and WILL BE GLOBAL LEADERS.

Remember these CEO’s are paid to do what they are doing, selling anyone who will listen a good story. Don’t believe all the fairy dust that you read or listen too. There is no track record yet. Its a lot of hype but not a lot of substance. You are paying extreme valuations for basically nothing other than hope.
I have said this before and saying it again. I bought in at the ground level. Anyone buying at ATH is playing with fire. That said there are some good buys everyday if you are willing to do your due diligence and dig. Anyone who buys stocks no matter what the sector by throwing darts at a board is risk. Hopefully you are buying stocks based on these metrics you speak of but dont care to share.

I stand by my point that there are going to be lots of retail John Doe investors who are going to get crushed when this thing turns. By all means it is fine to speculate, and at this point it is nothing but pure speculation, just don’t bet the farm is my advise.
These aren't tech stocks and this isn't speculation. These stocks aren't for everyone, but they are for me.


Good luck with your investments.[/QUOTE]
You too bud!

My favourite Warren Buffet quote: “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

God bless!
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  #164  
Old 09-23-2018, 10:04 AM
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Not pot related but a little tip Rnx.to. a nickel mining company that just found the biggest gold find of the century.
Just Google father's day vein
Id be cautious with this one. Insider selling last week, low cash reserves on hand, and has never made any net revenue. To scary of a stock for me to invest in.
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  #165  
Old 09-23-2018, 12:11 PM
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I really wish you would because I do enjoy a good debate!

Hopefully you are buying stocks based on these metrics you speak of but dont care to share.

These aren't tech stocks and this isn't speculation. These stocks aren't for everyone, but they are for me.

My favourite Warren Buffet quote: “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”



Sounds good, I appreciate a friendly debate to discuss and share differing points of view.

I will start by focussing on the medicinal side and how I would think about it from the point of view involving the weed producers and the pharmaceutical companies involved in the field and then tie it into how I would think about their valuations.

From the weed producer aspect, I would question how much demand will come from the medicinal side. Is there enough demand for weed that supply will be crimped? I don’t think so. Looking back in history again (it’s a pretty good teacher), we could look at something like the invention of Aspirin. At the time the active compounds were produced from willow bark. (I am not aware of any big speculative fever at the time that sent the prices of willow trees into bubble territory.) And before long scientists developed other sources besides willow bark to produce Aspirin from. And not to long after that they found other compounds that worked better to compete with Aspirin. So from the producer side I have a hard time making a case that the medical demand for weed will cause supply issues. Weed is only an easy to grow plant, much like willow.

I completely agree that cannabis may have many benefits to mankind on the medical front. As an investment thesis on the pharmaceutical side, I would then compare the companies in the weed space to other pharmaceutical companies and value them off of metrics involving sales, cash flow, debt, efficiency, liquidity, discount rates, value of intangibles, management ability, the companies pipeline and so on. I would also have to consider political, legal/regulatory, social risk, competitive risk, macro-economic factors, demographics, and so on and weigh the risk/reward.

I love your Buffet quote at the end, unfortunately it is rather hard to follow in practice. Most investors follow the exact opposite approach and that is the cause for bubbles in the first place. The human brain is hardwired to buy high and sell low unless you can keep the emotions of fear and greed under control.
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  #166  
Old 09-23-2018, 12:40 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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this thread contains lots of chould've, should've, would've, moments . one thing for sure is that its your own money so make your own choice and live with it .
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  #167  
Old 09-23-2018, 01:29 PM
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this thread contains lots of chould've, should've, would've, moments . one thing for sure is that its your own money so make your own choice and live with it .
That is why it is called a stock Market. It is based partially on emotions and predictions.
Please let’s continue this thread, the next week is going to be fascinating I think.
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  #168  
Old 09-23-2018, 04:21 PM
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That is why it is called a stock Market. It is based partially on emotions and predictions.
Please let’s continue this thread, the next week is going to be fascinating I think.
Did you invest in Canopy Rivers at all, or are you going to ride this one out and see what happens ??
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  #169  
Old 09-23-2018, 04:36 PM
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Current long holds are HEXO and XLY.

I'm in and out of others.
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  #170  
Old 09-23-2018, 05:42 PM
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Did you invest in Canopy Rivers at all, or are you going to ride this one out and see what happens ??
I was seriously thinking but I made a bad choice buying the AUSA.... I’m still looking at RIV, but I wanna watch it a bit first. As I said, the next week gonna be an interesting one.
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  #171  
Old 09-24-2018, 10:11 AM
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Not pot related but a little tip Rnx.to. a nickel mining company that just found the biggest gold find of the century.
Just Google father's day vein
Shows what I know, up 58% today. Insane
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  #172  
Old 09-24-2018, 12:34 PM
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Shows what I know, up 58% today. Insane
100% now and it's just the beginning
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  #173  
Old 09-24-2018, 01:33 PM
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100% now and it's just the beginning
I just dont understand why an insider sold 100,000 shares last week, when he should have already known about the gold discovery.
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  #174  
Old 09-24-2018, 07:20 PM
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I don't know but Eric Sprott just bought in for the amount of 10% of total shares. That was last week around 40 cents or so.
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  #175  
Old 09-24-2018, 10:20 PM
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100% now and it's just the beginning
Well, that’s definetly qualifies as a “nutty” stock, lol!
I might throw a few G’s in it tomorrow. And if it goes down like TLRY or BreX - I will hunt you down! Lol! Just kidding
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  #176  
Old 09-25-2018, 11:08 AM
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https://youtu.be/Wh9megh8d4A
Just bought this company.... check it out guys!
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  #177  
Old 09-25-2018, 01:39 PM
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Well, that’s definetly qualifies as a “nutty” stock, lol!
I might throw a few G’s in it tomorrow. And if it goes down like TLRY or BreX - I will hunt you down! Lol! Just kidding
down 36 % now
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  #178  
Old 09-25-2018, 05:52 PM
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Profit taking from people that sat at.09 for months. I'm not worried. Buy the dips as they say
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  #179  
Old 09-25-2018, 09:34 PM
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They dropped 17% today and that was expected. I wanna see what’s gonna happen in the next two weeks with this stock.
Also, Aurora is planning to hit the us market in October and Aurora the waaaay bigger than Tilray. I would put my money on it for sure. The cooperation with Coca Cola makes it more attractive.
I’m not stock savvy at all. But I have $3-5000 dollars that I can afford to gamble with. And I’m thinking of using it to buy Aurora. I don’t think it will perform as outstanding as Tilray, but I think hype will drive it up substantially when they enter the US market.

Here’s my hang up, as far as US customs is concerned it’s fine for me to own shares in a Canadian marijuana stock, but when they enter a major US exchange, could I potentially find myself in a situation where I may be banned from entry to the US?
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Old 09-25-2018, 10:34 PM
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I’m not stock savvy at all. But I have $3-5000 dollars that I can afford to gamble with. And I’m thinking of using it to buy Aurora. I don’t think it will perform as outstanding as Tilray, but I think hype will drive it up substantially when they enter the US market.

Here’s my hang up, as far as US customs is concerned it’s fine for me to own shares in a Canadian marijuana stock, but when they enter a major US exchange, could I potentially find myself in a situation where I may be banned from entry to the US?
This is my advice. Buy a company that makes money and is on sale. If I had 5000 to invest Id put it in TCW or AAV. JMO, and as you can see above I dont know much. Id stay out of the Weed Stocks altogether until you know which ones are the winners and which are the losers.
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