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  #241  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:21 AM
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Canada's First Potential Coronavirus Patients Are Being Monitored In Both Quebec & BCThe 6 patients have recently visited China and could be at-risk.

Helena Hanson*·*Jan 23, 2020

Last updated : 23/01/2020 @ 19:23 PM

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Since the beginning of January, reports of a newly identified strain of the coronavirus have been confirmed in Wuhan, China. Now, a total of six people in Quebec and B.C. are under observation by government health agencies, because they’ve recently visited at-risk regions of China. While they say the chance of the*coronavirus in Canada*remains low, Quebec is reportedly “staying vigilant.”

Quebec's public health director, Dr. Horacio Arruda, tells*Global News*that five of the people who are currently being monitored for the disease are in their province.

They are currently in isolation units in the hospital, both in Montreal and in Quebec City.

Their test results should be ready in the next few days, said Dr. Arruda, and they are all expected to test negative.

Another person in Quebec was also screened for the illness as a precaution but has since been confirmed as healthy.

Federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said*additional monitoring*is taking place in Vancouver, where one person has also been tested for the new strain.

There are no confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Canada at the moment, and it is still considered to be low risk area

Referred to as a*“novel coronavirus,”*the strain has now made more than 500 people sick and 17 people have died, mostly around the Chinese city of Wuhan.

While the World Health Organization has yet to declare the illness as an international emergency, Quebec’s public health director said they’re not prepared to take any chances.*

Speaking to reporters*on Wednesday, Dr. Arruda explained, "The risk is still considered low, but we will stay vigilant.”

"We think there is a possibility people come back with the disease here, in Canada or in Quebec, but we will catch it early and make sure the transmission is not sustained in the community," he said.
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Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck
I wasn't thinking far enough ahead for an outcome, I was ranting. By definition, a rant doesn't imply much forethought.....
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  #242  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:28 AM
The Elkster The Elkster is offline
 
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Here is a comment I just read on Reddit. Appears to be verified but obviously based on a somewhat limited dataset. Not great news if at all accurate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/c...estimation_of/

Key findings

•We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (����0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.


•We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.


•If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.


•Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February
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  #243  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
Here is a comment I just read on Reddit. Appears to be verified but obviously based on a somewhat limited dataset. Not great news if at all accurate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/c...estimation_of/

Key findings

•We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (����0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.


•We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.


•If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.


•Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February
This is what I've been trying to get across this whole time. I was (am) a scientist. I've studied bacteria and viruses, DNA replication and mutations. I've been following the trends and numbers. This is bad! Your excerpt actually has me more concerned, which I already was, if true. Bad news for sure. Those numbers are much worse than I had expected.

I'm not a doomsday prepper tinfoil hat type, just know what this will turn into. Those numbers are extremely exponential. And then mutations kick in with that, and it becomes even worse as the virus gets stronger. An R of 3.6-4 is huge. For every person infected, they infect four others....

Last edited by bloopbloob; 01-24-2020 at 10:01 AM.
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  #244  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck View Post
It might suggest that you don't want to have any surgery in China, if they have such pizz poor standards to control transmission of infection....yikes. Did they do this in a cave? Use ditch water to scrub??
Quote;
"SARS Toronto: Phases I and II. The two SARS outbreaks that occurred in Toronto and the age distribution of cases. The majority of cases, which occurred between the ages of 18 and 64, were among health care workers, patients, and visitors to patients in...."
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  #245  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:37 AM
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It has a relatively low transmission rate.
About the same as the common cold.....
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  #246  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:40 AM
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The Chinese believe this may get a little out of hand......

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51230011

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...al-in-six-days
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  #247  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:42 AM
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Man, forget two weeks, in a few days, the past numbers will be a drop in the bucket
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  #248  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:46 AM
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Tough part would be if you felt even a bit sick, would you go to the hospital and risk getting infected? I imagine a lot of people are infected and no one knows about it as they are scared to go to hospital or have minor symptoms.

Some videos coming out of them starting to build the hospital. Plan to build it in 5 days. Impressive to see all the equipment working.
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  #249  
Old 01-24-2020, 09:55 AM
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I read this morn they are up to a lockdown of an area of 35 million. Hard to imagine, about 90% of our nation's population. I imagine my dept will be prepping the swine/sars/mers suits again. yaaaay.
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  #250  
Old 01-24-2020, 10:12 AM
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Now I’m starting to get worried. The most recent death was a 36 year old man with no previous health problems. https://time.com/5770924/wuhan-coron...oungest-death/
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  #251  
Old 01-24-2020, 10:22 AM
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The short video clips of hospitals packed with people. Lot's not wearing masks, also hardly any eye protection.

The news says that these people are 'swarming hospitals to get screened'. This makes no sense to me why anyone who was not in urgent need of hospital care would risk going into on of these hospitals.
Also, if these people are just getting screened, why are there so many passed out in the middle of the floor in a hospital.

I also find it rather concerning that I watch a video from a hospital. Then within minutes the link is gone. Going to pick up another roll of tinfoil tonight.
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  #252  
Old 01-24-2020, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raab View Post
Now I’m starting to get worried. The most recent death was a 36 year old man with no previous health problems. https://time.com/5770924/wuhan-coron...oungest-death/
The younger age is more concerning. We will see as more cases roll in. Estimating 14% death rate of those infected.
The next week will be a very informative and will likely be when we get the go ahead to panic or not.
I’ll wait. But I will watch.
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Last edited by Flight01; 01-24-2020 at 10:46 AM.
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  #253  
Old 01-24-2020, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Flight01 View Post
The younger age is more concerning. We will see as more cases roll in. Estimating 14% death rate of those infected.
The next week will be a very informative and will likely be when we get the go ahead to panic or not.
I’ll wait. But I will watch.
14% of those hospitalized, not 14% of those infected. Hovering around 3% of infected. No need to spread panic!
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  #254  
Old 01-24-2020, 10:55 AM
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This just popped up. Trump has been briefed on the virus, it can survive on objects, two week incubation period, air borne. Third case in US now.

Could be BS so take with a grain of salt for now.
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  #255  
Old 01-24-2020, 11:07 AM
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Two places to avoid right now if you don't want to get sick, hospitals and airplanes....
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  #256  
Old 01-24-2020, 11:07 AM
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Nice to know all our stuff is made in china
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  #257  
Old 01-24-2020, 11:16 AM
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Nice to know all our stuff is made in china
Because consumers value cheap quantity over expensive quality.....
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  #258  
Old 01-24-2020, 11:29 AM
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Ammo, ammo and more ammo! You gonna have to shoot your way thru the crowd of infected zombies! Then you can take what you want from the empty stores. Looting sounds like fun!
Guys, common, use common sense. Is there a reason to panic? No, not yet. Is there a reason to worry? Always! Just as I mentioned before- be prepared. Up your body’s natural immune system by taking vitamins and anti-oxidants and use anti- viral foods, use mask if you are at the high risk areas.
If you are older person with a weak immune system or chronic respiratory illnesses- just stay home, you are the high risk person. And nothing you can do about it.
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  #259  
Old 01-24-2020, 11:43 AM
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Using an R value of 4 (SCARY!!!), using close to current reported cases (which actual value has been estimated at 20x reported), just using 1000 cases for this example. This is how it would go every two weeks:

1000
4000
16000
64000
256000
1.02million
4.08million
16million
65million
261million
1.04billion
4.18billion

With how quickly this has been spreading, it sure doesn't take long to cover half the earths population.... That said, the R value is coming in a population dense area, and would likely decrease significantly outside of China

Last edited by bloopbloob; 01-24-2020 at 12:03 PM.
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  #260  
Old 01-24-2020, 12:48 PM
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Grab your half masks and P100 filters. Stock up. Dust mask searches are already trending. I also heard some grocery shelves are emptying in China.
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  #261  
Old 01-24-2020, 12:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloopbloob View Post
Second American case just confirmed in Chicago....
She returned on a plane from China (with recirculated air) and who knows how many people she's had contact with before being hospitalized and diagnosed. Here goes another wrap of tinfoil, 31 layers now.

I've got 4 half mask reusable rubber full seal face mask cartridge style respirators and a dozen cartridges with 99.97% filtration, as of this morning. Luckily my work has them. Not because I'm that scared here yet, but when it gets here, good luck getting your hands on it when you need it....
I’m not a prepper by any means but might be worth having a few things.

Just did the same, if I don’t use them for this I’ll use them in the shop, even N95 masks and surgical masks are getting hard to find when I looked them up, half mask is more secure for sure. I’m not panicked but it has my attention. There are almost not masks left in China, people are reusing old ones in the garbage and using sanitary pads over their noses.

Some reports (not verified at all) from doctors that estimate there could be up to 100,000 infected right now. Some videos on twitter show a couple doctors losing their minds about how long they are working and how they can’t help the volume of people in the hospital. I fear the censorship in China doesn’t allow us to see the real struggle happening right now.
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  #262  
Old 01-24-2020, 12:56 PM
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I'll be flying to Singapore in nine days via Tokyo. It's right after the week of Chinese New year, so I'm hoping that the terminals will be thoroughly scrubbed and disinfected before we arrive. Things should be a lot less crowded as well due to the end of the Chinese holiday. We'll all be washing/disinfecting our hands like raccoons, and maybe even doing the mask thing and try to find quiet corners of the airports. Hopefully it's not a post apocalyptic wasteland when we arrive

Flying with ANA, so I also hope that plane is Japanese clean as usual. Glad I'm not flying through Hong Kong, Taiwan or especially mainland China with any of the Chinese carriers.
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  #263  
Old 01-24-2020, 12:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloopbloob View Post
This is what I've been trying to get across this whole time. I was (am) a scientist. I've studied bacteria and viruses, DNA replication and mutations. I've been following the trends and numbers. This is bad! Your excerpt actually has me more concerned, which I already was, if true. Bad news for sure. Those numbers are much worse than I had expected.

I'm not a doomsday prepper tinfoil hat type, just know what this will turn into. Those numbers are extremely exponential. And then mutations kick in with that, and it becomes even worse as the virus gets stronger. An R of 3.6-4 is huge. For every person infected, they infect four others....
If you were a scientist what are you doing supervising welders and doing QC work?
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  #264  
Old 01-24-2020, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by WhiteTailAB View Post
If you were a scientist what are you doing supervising welders and doing QC work?
I was thinking the same thing but never said it
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  #265  
Old 01-24-2020, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by WhiteTailAB View Post
If you were a scientist what are you doing supervising welders and doing QC work?
That's why I said was, but I still have my BSc, so I AM, just not working as one. I couldn't find much for work in my field after school. I was a welders helper during summer months between semesters, and realized much more earning potential to become a welder. So I gave it up and switched career paths
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  #266  
Old 01-24-2020, 01:10 PM
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Two cases in France now.
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  #267  
Old 01-24-2020, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloopbloob View Post
That's why I said was, but I still have my BSc, so I AM, just not working as one. I couldn't find much for work in my field after school. I was a welders helper during summer months between semesters, and realized much more earning potential to become a welder. So I gave it up and switched career paths
Gotcha, was just curious about it.
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  #268  
Old 01-24-2020, 01:20 PM
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According to someone on reddit, get your grain of salt ready, if someone dies before they're seen by a Dr then they don't add that casualty to the list of those that died from the virus.

On one hand its China and they're shady AF on the other hand its China and its totally believable.
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  #269  
Old 01-24-2020, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by bat119 View Post
Waiting for a package from DONGGUAN, GUANGDONG China right in the heart of the quarantine sent on Jan. 7 hope nobody coughed on it.
How long can this live on stuff? ,because yes just like of the stuff we all order on Amazon everyday
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  #270  
Old 01-24-2020, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Elkster View Post
Surprisingly there is very little coverage in much of the media and I haven't seen much for sensational headlines. Much of the info is trickling out of China via social media and suggestions are its worse than media is reporting. I actually found that interesting and a bit weird as you'd think the MSM would be lapping this stuff. I'm almost wondering if they've been encouraged to not highlight it for now.

Its possible this is an overreaction by the Chinese gov't after the criticism for their handling of SARS. The resulting panic and hysteria may be causing most of the problems but its impossible to say right now. The WHO doesn't seem ready to call this a severe threat so that gives me some peace. Still going to start preparing to hunker down just in case.
This^^

Not worried in the least
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