Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[CBintheNorth]

I don't want this post to sound like I'm downplaying the situation, as that is not my intention, but need to post 2 numbers.

Average age of death from Covid-19 in Alberta - 82yrs old.

Average age of death in Canada from all causes- 82yrs old.

People posting info from other countries with totally different demographics is like our government posting gun violence stats from Detroit.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by CBintheNorth

I don't want this post to sound like I'm downplaying the situation, as that is not my intention, but need to post 2 numbers.

Average age of death from Covid-19 in Alberta - 82yrs old.

Average age of death in Canada from all causes- 82yrs old.

People posting info from other countries with totally different demographics is like our government posting gun violence stats from Detroit.

but that's how it starts.....I believe our governments are more cautious but one little oopsy and we are in another round of this....people just post info of what the world is experiencing which can and will effect us as in what we are going through right now....easing up but be cautious.

[glen moa]

So China is having a second wave with 100 million under lock down?
And rebel news says flights from China are still coming to Canada
Is that correct?

[Jigsalot]

Originally Posted by glen moa

So China is having a second wave with 100 million under lock down?
And rebel news says flights from China are still coming to Canada
Is that correct?

Yes they are. Beijing Vancouver every day. Makes me sick they can’t stop that stupidity. I know Air Canada alone is losing 1 million per hour right now so it’s all about money most likely.
Here is a flight in the air right now. Vancouver to China.

Also Carnival cruise line is now taking bookings for August😡. Unreal

[260 Rem]

DIL flies a 787 for AC ... did a return Toronto - Beijing last week ... no passengers but a belly full of freight.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by Jigsalot

Yes they are. Beijing Vancouver every day. Makes me sick they can’t stop that stupidity. I know Air Canada alone is losing 1 million per hour right now so it’s all about money most likely.
Here is a flight in the air right now. Vancouver to China.

Also Carnival cruise line is now taking bookings for August😡. Unreal

Could you Imagime stuck on a death vessel....in a wee little cabin....people festering.....no thanks

[Jigsalot]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

Could you Imagime stuck on a death vessel....in a wee little cabin....people festering.....no thanks

Yea no thanks. I wouldn’t go on a cruise even if it was free. Those days are done along with theatres.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by Jigsalot

Yea no thanks. I wouldn’t go on a cruise even if it was free. Those days are done along with theatres.

So no more sucking face in tha back corner....hmmmm....gotta think about that one eh

[IronNoggin]

Recently the National Research Council (NRC) announced that Canadian researchers will be partnering with the Chinese based CanSino Biologics and in extension the People’s Liberation Army to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus.

President of Concerned Ontario Doctors Dr. Kulvinder Gill spoke out against the deal, saying that partnering with China is “the most counterproductive and dangerous thing [the federal government] could do.”

https://tnc.news/2020/05/20/toronto-...ans-in-danger/

[tri777]

"The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%..That rate is
much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response
to the epidemic."

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cd...ate-below-0-3/

[landowner]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

Could you Imagime stuck on a death vessel....in a wee little cabin....people festering.....no thanks

And with a menopausal woman....

[CMichaud]

OK...had to put this one up.

Crappy reports and haphazard science quoted by a lazy media = distrust.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...sion-1.4953351

TORONTO -- Face masks made with multiple layers of cotton cloth may help prevent further transmission of COVID-19, according to an international team of researchers who examined a century’s worth of mask studies.

Homemade cloth masks aren’t perfect, they found, but they may help provide a “modest reduction in transmission” if widely used.

“Given the severity of this pandemic and the difficulty of control, we suggest that the possible benefit of a modest reduction in transmission likely outweighs the possibility of harm,” the team wrote in a paper published in the Annals of Internal Medicine on May 22.

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted through aerosol and droplet particles that people generate while speaking, eating, coughing and sneezing. A cloth mask can stop those particles in their tracks before they can transmit the virus.

“Every virus-laden particle retained in a mask is not available to hang in the air as an aerosol or fall to a surface to be later picked up by touch,” the researchers said.

There is insufficient evidence as to whether a mask works as well to protect a wearer as it protects others from the wearer’s droplets, said lead author Catherine Clase, associate professor of medicine at McMaster University and a nephrologist of St. Joseph’s Healthcare in Hamilton, Ont., in a press release.

“Ideally, we would want a mask to work in both directions, protecting the wearer from the environment and reducing the contamination of the environment -- air and surfaces -- by the wearer,” she said.

While the research is incomplete, there is enough “convincing” evidence that should “suffice to inform policy decisions on their use in this pandemic pending further research,” the researchers wrote.

[HVA7mm]

Only 19 new cases in Alberta today. Things are looking up.

[CMichaud]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/covid...nada-1.5583241

Excerpt below...

While U.S. and international flights coming into Canada have been significantly curtailed since the outbreak of COVID-19, thousands of passengers are still arriving each week at the country's airports.
It's an issue that at least one infection control epidemiologist believes is cause for concern.

"The fact of the matter is this pandemic arrived everywhere in the world through travel," said Colin Furness, who is also an assistant professor with the University of Toronto's Faculty of Information.
"We should be closing our borders as much as we can. We can't bring [the number of entrants] down to zero but we should get as close as we can."

According to the Canada Border Services Agency, 356,673 air travellers came into Canada from the U.S. last year during the week of May 11-17. In the same time period this year, there was a nearly 99 per cent drop.
Yet 3,691 people still entered Canada that week.

As well, international travel in that time period saw a 97 per cent decrease from last year's total of 374,775. This year, during that same week, 10,845 people arrived at one of the four Canadian airports that accept international flights — Montreal, Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver.

In total, since March 23, 76,072 passengers from the U.S. and 193,438 international travellers have arrived in Canada.

Two months ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that for air travel specifically, as of March 18, the government was barring foreign nationals from all countries except the U.S. from entering Canada.

But an order in council later that month exempted a number of individuals, including immediate family members of a Canadian citizen, emergency service providers, temporary foreign workers and international students.

The ban came at a time when the vast majority of COVID-19 cases were deemed to be travel-related. Since those restrictions have been implemented, travel-related cases of COVID-19 have dropped significantly.

According to the Public Health Agency of Canada, as of May 25, 81 per cent of all COVID-19 cases were related to community transmission. Meanwhile, 19 per cent of cases were the result of someone becoming exposed while travelling or being exposed to a traveler coming to Canada. Nine per cent of cases were those who reported to have travelled outside of Canada.

"The data from PHAC suggest that since the borders were closed, international travel is rarely a cause of cases in Canada — the biggest category by far is domestic spread," said Dr. Michael Gardam, an infectious disease specialist and chief of staff at Humber River Hospital in Toronto, in an email.

"I don't think the risk [of international travel] is zero but it is much lower than it used to be, especially since international arrivals must quarantine for 14 days upon arrival."

But Furness said some countries that seemed to get the virus under control have experienced small flare-ups because of infections related to travel.

"It may well be that we're not seeing a large number of travel-related cases, but one case can then spawn one more, which then spawns a whole ton of community spread," Furness said.

[IronNoggin]

Beijing now admits that coronavirus DIDN'T start in Wuhan's market...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...come-from.html

[sk270]

Originally Posted by IronNoggin

Beijing now admits that coronavirus DIDN'T start in Wuhan's market...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...come-from.html

It's interesting that the Lancet article cited in the Daily Mail was published on January 24 and scientists are still trying to figure out where and how the virus originally appeared in humans.

It doesn't take much searching on the internet to come to the conclusion that the authorities in China were not open and communicative about Covid-19 until they were forced to open up by the extent and severity of the pandemic.

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by IronNoggin

Beijing now admits that coronavirus DIDN'T start in Wuhan's market...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...come-from.html

I can't read it due to my adblocker, can I bother you to do a copy and paste?

[tri777]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

I can't read it due to my adblocker, can I bother you to do a copy and paste?

My CP hates the Daily Mail site, so here's the jist from another site:
-------------------------------------------------------------------

"A new study by Chinese researchers indicates the novel coronavirus may have begun human-to-human
transmission in late November from a place other than the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan.

The study published on ChinaXiv, a Chinese open repository for scientific researchers, reveals the
new coronavirus was introduced to the seafood market from another location, and then spread rapidly
from market to market. The findings were the result of analyses of genome-wide data, sources of
infection and the route of spread of 93 samples of the novel coronavirus collected from 12 countries
across four continents.

The study believes that patient zero transmitted the virus to workers or sellers at the Huanan seafood
market. The crowded market facilitated the further transmission of the virus to buyers, which caused
a wider spread in early December 2019.

According to the researchers, the new coronavirus experienced two sudden population expansions,
including one on January 6, 2020, which was related to the Chinese New Year's Day holiday.

An earlier expansion occurred on December 8, implying human-to-human transmission may have
started in early December or late November, and then accelerated when it reached the
Huanan seafood market.

On January 6, the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a second-level
emergency response, which the researchers said served as a warning against mass public activity and travel.

If the warnings had received wider public attention, the number of cases spreading nationally and
globally in mid-to-late January would have been lower, said the researchers.

Patients from Australia, France, Japan and the US - countries with wider samples - have had at
least two sources of infection, and the US in particular has reported five sources, the study said.

However, based upon limited samples in other countries, the source of most infections is deemed to
be the same. In addition to their contact history with Wuhan, some may have been infected in South
China's Guangdong Province and Singapore."

[IronNoggin]

Here's how the feds have abdicated responsibility during COVID-19

And while the pundits love to compare us to the United States, which has a whole host of unique shortcomings of its own, why not compare us to Germany? Its southern border is only 300 km away from the European epicentre of this disease in Lombardy, Italy.

Yet, It has recorded 44% fewer deaths per capita than we have. Austria, which is even closer, has recorded 59% fewer deaths. Australia and New Zealand, 98% fewer fatalities.

In fact, we’ve had 14 times more COVID deaths in Canada, per person, than South Korea, Australia and New Zealand combined. And, to be clear, this isn’t a partisan issue.

Look, obviously Canada and its government is not responsible for COVID-19. But it is responsible for preparing for and reacting to unexpected situations. That’s part of leadership. That’s part of running a country.

And it’s where this government, unfortunately, has let Canadians down again

https://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...uring-covid-19

[IronNoggin]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

I can't read it due to my adblocker, can I bother you to do a copy and paste?

Beijing now admits that coronavirus DIDN'T start in Wuhan's market... so where DID it come from, asks IAN BIRRELL

Centre for Disease Control and Prevention's Gao Fu admitted no viruses were detected in animal samples

He said they were found only in environmental samples, including sewage

Gao's sudden reversal came after series of studies cast doubt on his original claim

China has become used to public confessions on television. But this time the words came from one of the nation’s top officials and had seismic global implications.

‘At first, we assumed the seafood market might have the virus, but now the market is more like a victim,’ said Gao Fu, director of the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

This was a stunning admission. For the same scientist had unequivocally pointed the finger of blame at Wuhan’s market where wild animals were sold when his country eventually told the world about a deadly new virus in the city.

The market was shut and cleaned up like a crime scene, in the words of another expert, as global attention focused on the ghastly trade in wild animals.

Gao’s initial analysis had made sense after previous outbreaks of zoonotic viruses (diseases that jump from animals to humans). Yet suspicion grew over the Chinese government’s failure to share data from animals sampled in the market following its early cover-ups

Now Gao has admitted no viruses were detected in animal samples. He said they were found only in environmental samples, including sewage – before adding an intriguing aside that ‘the novel coronavirus had existed long before’.

No-one should doubt the significance of the statement since Gao is not just China’s top epidemiologist but also a member of the country’s top political advisory body.

Curiously, his revelation followed a television interview with Wang Yanyi, director of Wuhan Institute of Virology, in which she insisted that claims about the disease having leaked from her top-security unit were ‘pure fabrication’.

Gao’s sudden reversal came after a series of studies cast doubt on his original claim.

A landmark Lancet paper found only 27 of the first 41 confirmed cases were ‘exposed’ to the market – and only one of the four initial cases in the first two weeks of December.

Two weeks ago, The Mail on Sunday revealed another key academic paper by three America-based biologists that said all available data suggested the disease was taken into the market by someone already infected. So what does this all mean?

Sadly, the amount of massive research findings seems to be deepening rather than dispersing confusion over coronavirus, which is much more unpredictable than a simple respiratory virus in the way it attacks the body.

As Gao said in another interview, this is the seventh coronavirus to infect humans, yet none of its predecessors acted like this strange one.

‘The behaviour of this virus isn’t like a coronavirus,’ he said.

With regard to those three American biologists, they were ‘surprised’ to find the virus ‘already pre-adapted to human transmission’, contrasting its previously known stability with a coronavirus that evolved quickly during the global Sars epidemic between 2002 and 2004. Last week, I revealed that Australian scientists had similarly found Sars-CoV-2 – the new strain of coronavirus that causes disease – is ‘uniquely adapted to infect humans’.

Genetic stability makes it easier to find vaccines. But Nikolai Petrovsky, the vaccine researcher who headed the Australian team, said the virus was ‘not typical of a normal zoonotic infection’ since it suddenly appeared with ‘exceptional’ ability to enter humans from day one. He also highlighted the ‘furin cleavage site’, ‘which allows the spike protein to bind efficiently to cells in several human tissues, increasing infectivity, and does not exist in the most similar coronaviruses.

Some experts say this might have evolved through mutation during ‘unrecognised transmission in humans’ after crossing from an animal. Certainly it would help to find any intermediate host such as civets that ‘amplified’ the Sars virus from bats.

A paper by Professor Yong-Zhen Zhang, a prominent Chinese expert, said this was ‘arguably the most important’ difference between the new virus and its closest known relative, a virus called RaTG13 derived from a bat by Wuhan scientists.

Prof Zhang also noted the viruses closest to the new one were sampled from bats in Yunnan, 1,000 miles from Wuhan. Although 96 per cent genetically similar, ‘in reality this likely represents more than 20 years of sequence evolution’.

Last week, virology institute director Wang said scientists at her laboratory had isolated and obtained coronaviruses from bats but insisted they had only ‘three strains of live viruses’.

Her claim was dismissed as ‘demonstrably false’ by biosecurity expert Richard Ebright, professor of chemical biology at Rutgers University, New Jersey, who said the institute had published analyses of many more than three strains of live bat coronavirus.

Few doubt this freak virus came in lethal guise from an animal.

‘Nature created this virus and has proven once again to be the most effective bio-terrorist,’ said Francis Collins, director of the US National Institutes of Health.

Yet this widely respected geneticist, appointed by Barack Obama, added significantly: ‘Whether [the coronavirus] could have been in some way isolated and studied in this laboratory in Wuhan, we have no way of knowing.’

Here lies the key point. It is foolish at this stage to rule out the possibility, however remote, that this pandemic might be the consequence of a Chinese laboratory leak.

As Professor Petrovsky said, scientists anywhere working with microscopic viruses can make mistakes and there are many examples to prove this point.

Above all, it is crucial to find the origins. If this pandemic is a natural event, it can erupt again from a similar source – and next time with even more explosive impact.

An example is ebola, another zoonotic disease (from fruit bats) that first appeared in 1976. All data indicated outbreaks led to fewer than 300 fatalities – until a subsequent outbreak in West Africa in 2014 led to 11,310 deaths.

Matters are complicated by Donald Trump’s finger-pointing at Beijing and the fact that a proven lab leak would be catastrophic for China’s President Xi Jinping as he tries to exploit the pandemic to push his dictatorial creed and nation’s global leadership.

Perhaps the best argument against the idea of the virus being lab-made came from Susan Weiss, professor of microbiology at Perelman School of Medicine, Pennsylvania.

‘There is no way anyone could design a virus that is this diabolical,’ she said succinctly.

[HVA7mm]

Only 13 new cases in Alberta, and 377 active cases out of 7057 cases.

With 6,537 recovered cases, things are looking up:

272 active cases in Calgary out of 3997

44 active cases in Edmonton out of 409

0 active cases in Red Deer out of 37

11 active cases in Foothills out of 727

8 active cases in Brooks out of 1095

6 active cases in Medicine Hat out of 42

1 active case in Lethbridge out of 27

143 deaths (average age 83) 51 currently in hospital, 6 in ICU. Hospitals were not overwhelmed, with 106 acute care hospitals and 8,483 acute care beds.

Good job people of Alberta.

[pikergolf]

Sweden admits they got it wrong.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...strategy-wrong

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by pikergolf

Sweden admits they got it wrong.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...strategy-wrong

He is also saying that we blew it as well.

[CMichaud]

Meh...yeah another expert...

At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden's mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds that of neighbouring Denmark and Norway

I can spin this the other way....

At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden's mortality rate is much lower than some other European nations.

[HVA7mm]

Originally Posted by HVA7mm

Only 13 new cases in Alberta, and 377 active cases out of 7057 cases.

With 6,537 recovered cases, things are looking up:

272 active cases in Calgary out of 3997

44 active cases in Edmonton out of 409

0 active cases in Red Deer out of 37

11 active cases in Foothills out of 727

8 active cases in Brooks out of 1095

6 active cases in Medicine Hat out of 42

1 active case in Lethbridge out of 27

143 deaths (average age 83) 51 currently in hospital, 6 in ICU. Hospitals were not overwhelmed, with 106 acute care hospitals and 8,483 acute care beds.

Good job people of Alberta.

Alberta 64 new cases, 355 active cases, 6698 recovered cases out of 7202 cases.


196 active cases in Calgary out of 4076

103 active cases in Edmonton out of 465

0 active cases in Red Deer out of 37

1 active cases in Brooks out of 1117

1 active cases in Medicine Hat out of 36

4 active case in Lethbridge out of 32

149 deaths (average age 83) 44 currently in hospital, 6 in ICU.

[urban rednek]

Once again, the subservient little parrots at the WHO propagate a false statement originating from Chinese sources, get called out for it, and retract the statement.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7043306/c...ic-spread-who/


By Kate Kelland Reuters
Posted June 9, 2020 5:52 am
Updated June 9, 2020 10:36 am

WHO walks back remarks, says asymptomatic transmission of coronavirus is occurring

World Health Organization officials are walking back some statements from Monday, now saying that they are “absolutely convinced” that asymptomatic transmission of the novel coronavirus is occurring.

Disease experts on Tuesday questioned a statement by the World Health Organization that transmission of COVID-19 by people with no symptoms is “very rare,” saying this guidance could pose problems for governments as they seek to lift lockdowns.

Maria van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist and the WHO’s technical lead on the coronavirus pandemic, said on Monday that many countries undertaking contact tracing had identified asymptomatic cases, but were not finding they caused further spread of the virus. “It is very rare,” she said.

In a briefing on Tuesday, Van Kerkhove said that some models estimated that up to 40 per cent of coronavirus transmission might be due to spread by asymptomatic cases, something she did not mention in her Monday comments.

The science isn’t settled, though, and some important questions remain, she said. The first is, “How many people are infected with COVID-19 and really don’t develop symptoms?” she said.

“The second big question is what proportion of those that don’t have symptoms actually transmit?”

“I was quite surprised by the WHO statement,” said Liam Smeeth, a professor of clinical epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who added that he had not seen the data van Kerkhove’s statement was based on.
“It goes against my impressions from the science so far that suggest asymptomatic people — who never get symptoms — and pre-symptomatic people are an important source of infection to others.

Smeeth and other experts said understanding the risks of transmission among people with mild or no symptoms is crucial as governments begin to ease the lockdown measures they imposed to try and reduce the pandemic’s spread and gradually replace them with case tracking and isolation plans.

“This has important implications for the track/trace/isolate measures being instituted in many countries,” said Babak Javid, a Cambridge University Hospitals infectious diseases consultant.

Some experts say it is not uncommon for infected people to show no symptoms.

A non-peer-reviewed study from Germany in May based on 919 people in the district of Heinsberg — which had among the highest death tolls in Germany — found that about one in five of those infected were symptomless.

But data is sparse on how likely such people are to transmit the disease.

The co-head of Singapore’s coronavirus task force told Reuters on Monday there had been asymptomatic transmission cases there, between people living in close quarters.

China said last week that 300 symptomless COVID-19 carriers in its central city of Wuhan, the pandemic’s epicentre, had not been found to be infectious.

Keith Neal, a professor of the epidemiology of infectious diseases at Britain’s University of Nottingham, said that while the question of how big a role asymptomatic transmission plays in new infections is unclear, what is known is that people with symptoms are responsible for most of the spread of the disease.

“This reinforces the importance of any person who has any of the symptoms of COVID-19 arranges a test … as soon as possible and isolating until they get their test result,” he said.

Dr. Mike Ryan of the WHO said Tuesday that the organization is “absolutely convinced” that asymptomatic transmission is occurring and that wearing masks can help to cut the risk of passing the virus along.

[HVA7mm]

I couldn't help bumping this thread up. Might as well add to this one rather than make the Covid Second Wave Spanish Flu thread 200+ pages and 6300+ posts. It's interesting reading through this thread and the more recent thread, seeing who's opinions have remained consistent, those who have changed opinions, those who continue posting a lot about this topic and those who have stopped posting on this issue altogether.

Much has happened since June, and there is a pile more information available now (and misinformation).

[Kurt505]

Here’s more breaking news on the topic (I stole the link from moose)

https://torontosun.com/news/provinci...qnvnKkPMuj3RGg

[tri777]

Originally Posted by 270person

Tucker/Cuomo would be fun to watch....for the 6 seconds it lasted. Cuomo fights for fun.
Carlsons a noodle armed, poodle walkin dough boy.

And now here's Tucker swinging hard with a upper cut..


Tucker calls out CNN's Chris Cuomo's blatant mask hypocrisy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlfHW0ACZtg

[tri777]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Using an R value of 4 (SCARY!!!), using close to current reported cases (which actual value has been estimated at 20x reported), just using 1000 cases for this example. This is how it would go every two weeks:

1000
4000
16000
64000
256000
1.02million
4.08million
16million
65million
261million
1.04billion
4.18billion

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

True. But the data is there. Scientific tests estimated that only 5.1% of actual values are being reported.
So the truth could be 20x worse than what we are reading already. This is not chicken little screaming
the sky is falling. It's slap you in the face real deal. They keep falling back on the excuse that it is localized,
so they don't have to call it a world health issue. BS!!! 35million people on lockdown. It is obviously no longer
localized, hundreds, thousands, or hundreds of thousands, unknown carriers with no symptoms are mingling
all over the earth now. Mark my words. I consider their lack of response negligent. This will be big.

Reading through these yesteryear posts..I can't believe I am still alive.
Where you at Bloop?