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Old 05-22-2017, 09:14 AM
Marty S Marty S is offline
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Default Salmon Forecast Anyone???

Does anybody have a reasonably accurate salmon forecast for 2017. What is the anticipated numbers supposed to look like? I haven't heard anything yet.
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Old 05-22-2017, 02:40 PM
idaman idaman is offline
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Originally Posted by Marty S View Post
Does anybody have a reasonably accurate salmon forecast for 2017. What is the anticipated numbers supposed to look like? I haven't heard anything yet.
This should give you a starting point.

https://www.frafs.ca/sites/default/f...20Dec92016.pdf

Chinook Low, Pinks Low, Coho Low except northern BC. Chum returns low, Southern BC should be able to support fisheries.

& it will only get worse as time goes on.
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Old 05-22-2017, 03:12 PM
Serengeti Charters Serengeti Charters is online now
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Well I wouldn't listen exactly to mr depressing above me here.

Chinook numbers are same as last year on coast as a whole. The forecast that is as often results aren't the same. Coho numbers are lower than normal. Pink returns are supposed to be decent as odd year. Chum, who knows as was supposed to be lower last year and had record runs.
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Old 05-22-2017, 05:10 PM
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Well I wouldn't listen exactly to mr depressing above me here.

Chinook numbers are same as last year on coast as a whole. The forecast that is as often results aren't the same. Coho numbers are lower than normal. Pink returns are supposed to be decent as odd year. Chum, who knows as was supposed to be lower last year and had record runs.
When we were out there last year everyone was telling us it was the worst Chinook year in 20-30+ years, hopefully be better this year.
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Old 05-22-2017, 07:03 PM
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Most of the coast it was. Plaves like port Hardy we were lucky and had one of our best years on record.
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Old 05-22-2017, 08:04 PM
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Last year was great and i'm sure we will have another great year.

The only slow year i've ever seen was 1995 when the mackeral invasion ate a lot of the salmon smolts.
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Old 05-22-2017, 08:07 PM
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2008 was for us in Hardy, a crappy year I mean.
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Old 05-23-2017, 06:42 AM
idaman idaman is offline
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Originally Posted by Serengeti Charters View Post
Well I wouldn't listen exactly to mr depressing above me here.

Chinook numbers are same as last year on coast as a whole. The forecast that is as often results aren't the same. Coho numbers are lower than normal. Pink returns are supposed to be decent as odd year. Chum, who knows as was supposed to be lower last year and had record runs.
Mr Depressing. Lol... just summing up the link I posted.

Ya forget what the Fisheries management says... come on man it's the main one in the know on thes things. I get where your coming from owning a charter business,
but let's be realistic numbers are down have been going down for years and we will never see the numbers we once had.
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Old 05-23-2017, 07:12 AM
waterninja waterninja is offline
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...
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Old 05-23-2017, 07:19 AM
waterninja waterninja is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serengeti Charters View Post
Well I wouldn't listen exactly to mr depressing above me here.

Chinook numbers are same as last year on coast as a whole. The forecast that is as often results aren't the same. Coho numbers are lower than normal. Pink returns are supposed to be decent as odd year. Chum, who knows as was supposed to be lower last year and had record runs.
Yeh, Ida is always a ray of sunshine and optmisim.
Anyways, seems like every year the "experts" are way off base and I hope you guys have a great year as far as fish stocks and fair weather. I'll be down for a DIY fishing trip at least once this year myself.
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Old 05-23-2017, 10:36 AM
Drewski Canuck Drewski Canuck is offline
 
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Last year at Nootka there were fish up to July, and these likely were Columbia river fish moving through. Then it collapsed.

Funny part was that that gulf of Alaska sampling of the commercial catch indicated a great year for Van Isle Chinook recruitment and survival and everything was rosy in April.

There was a deep water upwelling off shore, and somehow the fish stuck up north and off shore until very late. Apparently Conuma hatchery numbers were about the same in September when the fish arrived.

It seems that every 5 years at Nootka there is an off year. Things then return to normal.

What is helpful is that the Alaska Pollack fleet has to keep the by catch now and it is counted against their salmon quota. Before dead Chinooks were dumped overboard, and the salmon fleet still had their way were the remaining fish.

Drewski
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Old 05-23-2017, 02:59 PM
SNAPFisher SNAPFisher is offline
 
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Originally Posted by waterninja View Post
Yeh, Ida is always a ray of sunshine and optmisim.
Anyways, seems like every year the "experts" are way off base and I hope you guys have a great year as far as fish stocks and fair weather. I'll be down for a DIY fishing trip at least once this year myself.
I with you on both comments.

I'm fishing Haida Gwaii this year and I'm looking forwards to it...big big time!

Good luck on your trip.
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Old 05-23-2017, 08:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck View Post
Last year at Nootka there were fish up to July, and these likely were Columbia river fish moving through. Then it collapsed.

Funny part was that that gulf of Alaska sampling of the commercial catch indicated a great year for Van Isle Chinook recruitment and survival and everything was rosy in April.

There was a deep water upwelling off shore, and somehow the fish stuck up north and off shore until very late. Apparently Conuma hatchery numbers were about the same in September when the fish arrived.

It seems that every 5 years at Nootka there is an off year. Things then return to normal.

What is helpful is that the Alaska Pollack fleet has to keep the by catch now and it is counted against their salmon quota. Before dead Chinooks were dumped overboard, and the salmon fleet still had their way were the remaining fish.

Drewski
Don't forget about the huge number the Alaskan trollers licked up. Close to 70% of the Vancouver Island Chinooks....there were your missing Conuma and Robertson creek fish
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Old 05-24-2017, 07:10 AM
Marty S Marty S is offline
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We need a new law... nobody gets to eat fish unless they catch their own!
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Old 05-24-2017, 08:49 AM
waterninja waterninja is offline
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We need a new law... nobody gets to eat fish unless they catch their own!
Have to say, your comment made me smile this morning. What a concept.
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Old 05-24-2017, 09:29 AM
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Last year was the slow cycle year for Chinooks off the west coast. Yes there are local variations however it was a typical low cycle year.

That being said...it was the best of the low cycle years in the last 12 years from what I personally witnessed. Now we are trending back into the better cycles.

My prediction is this year will be OK to good. Next year should be superb. Year after should be good to great.

Location is everything for salmon. If you are in an area with limited runs...the prediction could be off one way or another due to local variation.

If you are in an area like the Queen Charlottes or Port Hardy...It should be a good prediction.
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Old 05-24-2017, 10:24 AM
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I am hearing Chinook are back for the spring run.

Last year in July 4 of us in 5 days caught over 300 pinks. 26 Coho, 0 chinook.
I caught 2 Chinook in May in 5 days.
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Old 05-27-2017, 08:15 AM
Marty S Marty S is offline
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I am hearing Chinook are back for the spring run.

Last year in July 4 of us in 5 days caught over 300 pinks. 26 Coho, 0 chinook.
I caught 2 Chinook in May in 5 days.
So why would that be? I'm assuming most people that tried for springs got a bunch or not? I was out in late July, last couple days, my charter didnt bother targeting chinooks, tons of coho tho, but back at Dollies, most people were still bringing in a chinook or two with their catch.
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Old 05-27-2017, 08:17 AM
Marty S Marty S is offline
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And... how 'bout, to be fair, if you don't catch yer own, ya hafta eat that farmed crap.

( we'll be kind to the masses!)
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