It's tough to say, yesterday I was getting flat out refusals from fish on my first fly, (orange and yellow stimulator) the fish were coming up for it and then turning at the last second. I usually start out with a stimulator or an elk hair caddis when there isn't a hatch I can see and then if I start getting the fish interested but they aren't taking it I switch from there. I switched flies to an olive mayfly pattern, and caught three fish from the exact same spot. I'm no expert, but that's seemed to work for me thus far.
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