The Great American Ammunition Conspiracy

[sk270]

Originally Posted by cody j

Not to get too political here, but are we talking about the same unbiased google that donated to the Trudeau foundation? The same unbiased google that deleted pages of Stephen Harper search results at the request of the Liberal govt?

I don't really understand how search engines work so help me out. If Google deleted Harper search results, are they deleted from other search engines? If so, how is the coordination between the search engines arranged? Thanks.

[urban rednek]

Originally Posted by 270person

You do understand Google is merely a search engine you can type a topic into and hit enter yes? I wasn't talking about Google News stories.

Google is a software powered search engine, written and controlled by human programmers, that in theory will provide the most current relevant online articles and sites that match any given search. They are shown in order of relevance to the query and by the most online activity.

In reality, Google most assuredly hides relevant information by either excising it from their search parameters, or burying it so far back in the search findings that very few people would have the patience to find it.
IME when Google results seem questionable, or downright false, I switch to Bing or DuckDuckGo and search again. Which generally results in finding the information within the first few pages.
How is it that similarly programmed software algorithms can show such a variance in results? The software does what it is programmed to do.

OT- While there are ammunition and reloading component supply issues that were predicted would happen, the people that seem to have the most trouble with it are the ones that refuse to buy supplies when they become available. If you don't buy some now, it might not be there when you come back.

[sk270]

Originally Posted by urban rednek

Google is a software powered search engine, written and controlled by human programmers, that in theory will provide the most current relevant online articles and sites that match any given search. They are shown in order of relevance to the query and by the most online activity.

In reality, Google most assuredly hides relevant information by either excising it from their search parameters, or burying it so far back in the search findings that very few people would have the patience to find it.
IME when Google results seem questionable, or downright false, I switch to Bing or DuckDuckGo and search again. Which generally results in finding the information within the first few pages.
How is it that similarly programmed software algorithms can show such a variance in results? The software does what it is programmed to do.

I actually do the reverse, start with Duck Duck Go and go to Google occasionally if I need more. I was wondering why Duck Duck Go or Bing wouldn't still have the Harper pages even after Google removed them. It's these details, or lack of them, that makes it hard for me to believe in a Liberal/communist/fascist conspiracy running Canada.

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

So if JT is a factor, it isn't just an American thing, and many Americans and Canadians, are buying for the same reason, to buy while it is available. As for buying for personal protection, that isn't just an American thing either, with such a broken legal system, that doesn't protect the citizens, many Canadians are also concerned about protecting their families. And then of course , we have such a corrupt leader, that is taking away our rights and freedoms, that some Canadians want to be armed , to protect themselves against our government.



And of course Google searches will lead you to a great deal of material that isn't proven, and that isn't true, because it is merely a search engine.

Not buying it elk. We buy up here in knowing everything we DO buy, or most of it, originates in the U.S. and they are facing massive shortages. Then, we're award of being a spit in the bucket market share wise so not a big priority.

Why? Because sales of firearms went to record highs in 2020 and dropped only a little in 2021. 7 - 8 million "new" as in first time buyers in the U.S. in 2020. Why? I've already mentioned the 3 dominant reasons why.

What do you think happens when you have 7.5 million first time firearms buyers in one year? They buy ammunition. Lots of it. That creates shortages, and just like toilet paper, shortages or even rumors of, create hoarding.

Raw materials being in short supply is largely bunk. Every gun and ammunition manufacturer in the U.S. is running flat out. As in 24 hr shifts. And still they cant catch up.

So why the increase in firearms and firearms related sales in 2020? The most massive increases in, Forever? The perfect storm.

As stated prior and in no particular order:

- New Democratic government

- A pandemic- fear of and supply chain interruptions caused by it

- increased social unrest, racial, Republican vs Democrat, defund the police, etc

- Hoarding, caused by the above 3 factors

As far as Google goes, its a search engine that brings up what you search for via word association. You can choose who and what to read at your will. Both sides of the coin. You don't like NBC's unbiased article then read these. Peterson Mag. Boddington, Forbes. Guns and Ammoetc. Better? All saying the same thing. Demand has surpassed production capabilities.


http://https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/01/05/us-bought-almost-20-million-guns-last-year---second-highest-year-on-record/


http://https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://freerangeamerican.us/ammunition-shortage/&ved=2ahUKEwiC6NaN9Yz3AhUODzQIHfcyC_cQFnoECDMQAQ&u sg=AOvVaw3GHdfDXkCKCoWcPzp0O6WJ


http://https://www.gunsandammo.com/editorial/ammo-shortage-cause/392239

The only answer to Why through most of it, from the numbers of NEW firearms buyers to the hoarding is quite simply Fear/Paranoia. Something the U.S. has never had a shortage of. The Excited States of America.

We have one thing to worry about. The idiot steering our ship. Down there they have many.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

Not buying it elk. We buy up here in qty knowing everything we DO buy, or most of it originates in the U.S. and they are facing massive shortages.

Why? Because sales of firearms went to record highs in 2020 and dropped only a little in 2021. 7 - 8 million "new" as in first time buyers in the U.S. in 2020. Why? I've already mentioned the 3 dominant reasons why.

What do you think happens when you have 7.5 million first time firearms buyers in one year? They buy ammunition. Lots of it. That creates shortages, and just like toilet paper, shortages or even rumors of, create hoarding.

Raw materials being in short supply is largely bunk. Every gun and ammunition manufacturer in the U.S. is running flat out. As in 24 hr shifts. And still they cant catch up.

So why the increase in firearms and firearms related sales in 2020? The most massive increases in, Forever? The perfect storm.

As stated prior and in no particular order:

- New Democratic government

- A pandemic- fear of and supply chain interruptions

- increased social unrest, racial, defend the police, etc

- Hoarding, caused by the above 3 factors

As far as Google goes, its a search engine that brings up what you search for. You can choose who and what to read at your will. Both sides of the coin. You don't like NBC's unbiased article then read these. Peterson Mag. Boddington, etc. All saying the same thing. Demand has surpassed production capabilities.


http://https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/01/05/us-bought-almost-20-million-guns-last-year---second-highest-year-on-record/


http://https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://freerangeamerican.us/ammunition-shortage/&ved=2ahUKEwiC6NaN9Yz3AhUODzQIHfcyC_cQFnoECDMQAQ&u sg=AOvVaw3GHdfDXkCKCoWcPzp0O6WJ


http://https://www.gunsandammo.com/editorial/ammo-shortage-cause/392239

The only answer to Why though most of it, from the numbers of New firearms buyers to the hoarding is quite simply Fear/Paranoia. Something the U.S. has never had a shortage of.

And we have records sales of both firearms and ammunition in Canada as well, so it isn't just a US trend. And many Canadians don't buy in quantity, despite several of us warning about the upcoming shortage a couple of years ago, many people did not stock up, and those are the people running out of ammunition and components now. And by the time hunting season rolls around, the real severity of the shortages will be even more apparent.

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

And we have records sales of both firearms and ammunition in Canada as well, so it isn't just a US trend. And many Canadians don't buy in quantity, despite several of us warning about the upcoming shortage a couple of years ago, many people did not stock up, and those are the people running out of ammunition and components now. And by the time hunting season rolls around, the real severity of the shortages will be even more apparent.

I hear you and disagree with none of it. We've been forced to buy more because of the situation below the 49th. We don't have much choice. Guys gotta eat right? Its lunatics causing what lunatics cause. In April of 2020 it was toilet paper.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

I hear you and disagree with none of it. We've been forced to buy more because of the situation below the 49th. We don't have much choice. Guys gotta eat right? Its lunatics causing what lunatics cause. In April of 2020 it was toilet paper.

Actually the hoarding and price gouging is just as bad in Canada, the only difference, is that we are only a very small part of the North American market, so we have far less effect on supply/demand. If the hoarders in the USA are lunatics, then so are the hoarders in Canada, which side of the border they are on, makes no difference.

[270person]

DP

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Actually the hoarding and price gouging is just as bad in Canada, the only difference, is that we are only a very small part of the North American market, so we have far less effect on supply/demand. If the hoarders in the USA are lunatics, then so are the hoarders in Canada, which side of the border they are on, makes no difference.

We had no major reasons to buy double, triple, and hoard. We were left with no choice when things in the U.S. went sideways. Trudeau's pathetic gun control efforts weren't going to cause the kinds of panic buying here as down south if there was adequate supply reaching us. Stock up or live without for gawd knows how long. Cause and effect. Shortage of beef steaks? Buy a cow.

Can't believe I was so excited to buy 1 lb'ers of powder for $60 last week. Bargain vs some prices I've seen out there.

We'll look back on the current situation on firearms and ammunition as small potatoes vs whats coming down the pipe for inflationary pricing. On everything. I've heard forecasts on where food could land within the next 3-6 months. This ammo thing is bugger all compared.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

We had no major reasons to buy double, triple, and hoard. We were left with no choice when things in the U.S. went sideways. Trudeau's pathetic gun control efforts weren't going to cause the kinds of panic buying here as down south if there was adequate supply reaching us. Stock up or live without for gawd knows how long. Cause and effect. Shortage of beef steaks? Buy a cow.

Can't believe I was so excited to buy 1 lb'ers of powder for $60 last week. Bargain vs some prices I've seen out there.

We'll look back on the current situation on firearms and ammunition as small potatoes vs whats coming down the pipe for inflationary pricing. On everything. I've heard forecasts on where food could land within the next 3-6 months. This ammo thing is bugger all compared.

Actually it is our ridiculous firearms laws that have created a huge market for any tactical style semi auto firearm that wasn't on the restricted list. Then when the prohibitions came out, it created an even larger demand for any rifle of that style not already prohibited. And with the SKS not being prohibited, the market really went crazy, as did prices. That also caused a larger demand for 7.62x39 ammunition. And with the mention of possible handgun bans, handgun sales in Canada increased, as did the demand for 9mm ammunition. So yes, the firearms laws did result in increased sales of firearms and ammunition.

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Actually it is our ridiculous firearms laws that have created a huge market for any tactical style semi auto firearm that wasn't on the restricted list. Then when the prohibitions came out, it created an even larger demand for any rifle of that style not already prohibited. And with the SKS not being prohibited, the market really went crazy, as did prices. That also caused a larger demand for 7.62x39 ammunition. And with the mention of possible handgun bans, handgun sales in Canada increased, as did the demand for 9mm ammunition. So yes, the firearms laws did result in increased sales of firearms and ammunition.

Absolutely! Some pretty good stockpiles happening in Canada because of exactly that

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Actually it is our ridiculous firearms laws that have created a huge market for any tactical style semi auto firearm that wasn't on the restricted list. Then when the prohibitions came out, it created an even larger demand for any rifle of that style not already prohibited. And with the SKS not being prohibited, the market really went crazy, as did prices. That also caused a larger demand for 7.62x39 ammunition. And with the mention of possible handgun bans, handgun sales in Canada increased, as did the demand for 9mm ammunition. So yes, the firearms laws did result in increased sales of firearms and ammunition.

My opinion on this is that one has to be pretty stupid to buy any firearm that could be clawed back in short order via the liberal programs. What are they worth then? Whatever the government decides to pay I guess but likely not what guts are paying for the. They're already talking about SA firearms with mag capacities over what? 3? 5? I've even heard rumors that the venerable old 10/22 could be a part of the ban.

Last firearms I'd buy are sks and anything remotely tactical with a SA action right now but whatever floats a guys boat i guess. I certainly wouldn't be counting on long term ownership.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

My opinion on this is that one has to be pretty stupid to buy any firearm that could be clawed back in short order via the liberal programs. What are they worth then? Whatever the government decides to pay I guess but likely not what guts are paying for the. They're already talking about SA firearms with mag capacities over what? 3? 5? I've even heard rumors that the venerable old 10/22 could be a part of the ban.

Last firearms I'd buy are sks and anything remotely tactical with a SA action right now but whatever floats a guys boat i guess. I certainly wouldn't be counting on long term ownership.

That doesn't change the fact that some people are buying them, in case they are prohibited. And many of those people will not turn them in, they plan on keeping them, and since they aren't registered, the government doesn't know where they are.

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by 270person

.

Last firearms I'd buy are sks and anything remotely tactical with a SA action right now but whatever floats a guys boat i guess. I certainly wouldn't be counting on long term ownership.

Guessing a majority will be pretty long term ownership....

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Actually it is our ridiculous firearms laws that have created a huge market for any tactical style semi auto firearm that wasn't on the restricted list. Then when the prohibitions came out, it created an even larger demand for any rifle of that style not already prohibited. And with the SKS not being prohibited, the market really went crazy, as did prices. That also caused a larger demand for 7.62x39 ammunition. And with the mention of possible handgun bans, handgun sales in Canada increased, as did the demand for 9mm ammunition. So yes, the firearms laws did result in increased sales of firearms and ammunition.

Interestingly enough, there was no big spike in first time firearms owners in Canada in 2020 unlike the U.S. Unless none of them bothered to get licensed of course. 2020 new owner numbers actually dropped from 2019 and really haven't risen any great amount since 2004. Any slowdowns in processing new firearms owners paperwork during the last 9 months of 2020, peak pandemic didn't show themselves in 2021 either when there was only a minor uptick.

Existing licensed owners are doing all the buying/hoarding I guess but the short story is Canada has not followed new U.S. firearms owner patterns whatsoever. That indicates less hysteria.

At 1/10 the population of the U.S. we should have seen roughly 750,000 NEW firearms owners in 2020 but numbers dropped by 100k from 2019 instead. Inventories are low in Canada for only one reason. Less inventory coming in because its all getting bought by the U.S. market.

[270person]

Originally Posted by MountainTi

Guessing a majority will be pretty long term ownership....

You counting on jackhandle getting turfed or not getting his way on new restrictions? Or just undeclared ownership?

[roper1]

New firearms owners in Alberta must be bucking the national trend. PAL/RPAL courses sold out for months throughout the province.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

Interestingly enough, there was no big spike in first time firearms owners in Canada in 2020 unlike the U.S. Unless none of them bothered to get licensed of course. 2020 new owner numbers actually dropped from 2019 and really haven't risen any great amount since 2004. Any slowdowns in processing new firearms owners paperwork during the last 9 months of 2020, peak pandemic didn't show themselves in 2021 either when there was only a minor uptick.

Existing licensed owners are doing all the buying/hoarding I guess but the short story is Canada has not followed new U.S. firearms owner patterns whatsoever. That indicates less hysteria.

At 1/10 the population of the U.S. we should have seen roughly 750,000 NEW firearms owners in 2020 but numbers dropped by 100k from 2019 instead. Inventories are low in Canada for only one reason. Less inventory coming in because its all getting bought by the U.S. market.

So how do you know how many people actually purchased firearms in Canada for the first time, since there is no long gun registry anymore? The number of PALs doesn't even tell you how many firearms owners there are in Canada, as not all owners ever obtained a PAL, and many that did hold a PAL at one time, have let their PAL expire. If you doubt this, just look at the threads where people ask if they need to take the test over, because they let their PAL expire. And AO members are probably a lot more interested in keeping a PAL from expiring than many people that obtained a PAL to purchase a firearm, then let it expire, because they don't hunt or target shoot.
Now if you could find a trustworthy number of new PALs issued by year, that might be a good indication, but then again , so should so many people taking the PAL course. And the courses keep filling up, so obviously there are a lot of people taking the course, and they usually don't take it, unless they plan on purchasing firearms.

All that I can find is that the number of firearms licenses reached an all time record high in 2021, and that is in spite of not having courses available for considerable periods due to covid, as well as delays in actually processing new PALs. And of course that doesn't account for the PALs that expired during that time period, and that weren't renewed, either to delays, or because some people just didn't bother applying for renewals, due to covid, or other reasons.

https://thegunblog.ca/2022/03/21/can...ecord-in-2021/

[roper1]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

So how do you know how many people actually purchased firearms in Canada for the first time, since there is no long gun registry anymore? The number of PALs doesn't even tell you how many firearms owners there are in Canada, as not all owners ever obtained a PAL, and many that did hold a PAL at one time, have let their PAL expire. If you doubt this, just look at the threads where people ask if they need to take the test over, because they let their PAL expire. And AO members are probably a lot more interested in keeping a PAL from expiring than many people that obtained a PAL to purchase a firearm, then let it expire, because they don't hunt or target shoot.
Now if you could find a trustworthy number of new PALs issued by year, that might be a good indication, but then again , so should so many people taking the PAL course. And the courses keep filling up, so obviously there are a lot of people taking the course, and they usually don't take it, unless they plan on purchasing firearms.

True dat. A gal from work(non-hunter) took some family members ( 7 of them fer crissakes ) for their PAL/RPAL. That local course has been sold out every other weekend since Oct. Think 50-60 new shooters per course.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by roper1

True dat. A gal from work(non-hunter) took some family members ( 7 of them fer crissakes ) for their PAL/RPAL. That local course has been sold out every other weekend since Oct. Think 50-60 new shooters per course.

Obviously many people are taking the course and are obtaining a PAL, but it would be interesting to see a breakdown, of new PALs, vs expired PALs. All that I could find is data showing that the total number of PALs set a new record in 2021, but it wasn't broken down to show new PALs vs renewed PALs, vs PALs that expired, but that weren't renewed. We see enough people posting threads about expired PALs to know that there is a fair number of people letting their PAL expire, and that is AO members that typically hunt or target shoot, and want to renew when they discover that their PAL has expired. Then there are the people that let their PAL expire, and don't hunt or target shoot, and simply don't bother renewing it. Of course the government knows how many PALs were not renewed, but they don't know if the holder disposed of the firearms, or if they still possess firearms, and just didn't bother renewing. Then there are the people that have never held a PAL, but that do own firearms. So the reality, is that nobody actually knows exactly how many firearms owners that there are in Canada, or how many firearms there are in Canada.
And given that the government pushed back enforcement of the firearms prohibitions, I honestly believe that they don't want a repeat of what happened in New Zealand, where the compliance to their prohibitions was extremely low. Given that they don't even know who owns the formerly unrestricted firearms that were prohibited, I believe that compliance in Canada would be as low as in New Zealand, and there really isn't much that the government can do to find those unregistered firearms.

[PartTimeHunter]

Originally Posted by 270person

JT maybe. Plus the situation south of the 49th kinda puts us in buy now or dont get it mode.

A lot of truth to that. I've found that during the recent past I've bought when I've found what I use even if I thought I had enough on hand. Buy it when ya find it was my motto.

[honda610]

The demand for Pal courses restricted and non are through the roof. I had a group of people almost pay double for a course as they had to cover the cost of renting a conference room for me to drive from Athabasca to Fort Mac as they could not get in till mid summer. 8 out of 10 did both courses. In the last 5 years my demographic has changed dramatically in the Pal courses. These are not your typical Hunters and shooters these are people who will tell you the way this country is going I would feel safer know how to use a firearm and average of 40 percent of people saying this is women.
Alot of people are going to be in for sticker shock next fall for rifle ammo. If they can find it. I know guys who have several rifles they can't get ammo for 6.5prc is one in particular. I told alot of guys at work for the last 2.5 years buy ammo....no one listed save two. And those guys are laughing. Price on some 3.5 12 gauge jumped 20 a box from last years price. 32 to 52.
How many guys are gonna hunt geese for over 2 dollars a shell with 1.99 desiel. I just priced quad tires yesterday 2021 prices are 116 a tire 2022 prices 250 !!! Same damn tire.
Good luck folks keep your powder dry and Ammo locker locked

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by honda610

The demand for Pal courses restricted and non are through the roof. I had a group of people almost pay double for a course as they had to cover the cost of renting a conference room for me to drive from Athabasca to Fort Mac as they could not get in till mid summer. 8 out of 10 did both courses. In the last 5 years my demographic has changed dramatically in the Pal courses. These are not your typical Hunters and shooters these are people who will tell you the way this country is going I would feel safer know how to use a firearm and average of 40 percent of people saying this is women.
Alot of people are going to be in for sticker shock next fall for rifle ammo. If they can find it. I know guys who have several rifles they can't get ammo for 6.5prc is one in particular. I told alot of guys at work for the last 2.5 years buy ammo....no one listed save two. And those guys are laughing. Price on some 3.5 12 gauge jumped 20 a box from last years price. 32 to 52.
How many guys are gonna hunt geese for over 2 dollars a shell with 1.99 desiel. I just priced quad tires yesterday 2021 prices are 116 a tire 2022 prices 250 !!! Same damn tire.
Good luck folks keep your powder dry and Ammo locker locked

With that kind of demand for the courses, it's obvious that regardless of what numbers the government releases, the number of firearms owners is rising dramatically. And the change in demographics shows that this is not just a lot of paranoid Americans, obviously a large number of Canadians are just as concerned about being able to protect themselves. Of course the government would never admit these things, because it demonstrates how little faith many Canadians have in the ability of the police and the authorities to protect them.

[honda610]

Absolutely alot of people are asking self defense and what if this questions. I have government and university staff members to teachers who are not your normal firearm owners. Some of these people I have gotten to know on a personal level and many new firearm owners are very left leaning politically. When they take the restricted course they shake there head at our laws and all the media myths....of firearms.
Very fun to inform people who had different ideas of why or what when it comes to firearm ownership.
Between my hunting and shooting buddys we have been buying and scrounging components, ammo, guns, scopes from Gp, peace river, loydminister, barhead, mornville. Anytime someone drives through we all have a list of what everyone needs and picks it up. We are still looking and buying but its getting harder. I have enough components for most of my calibers to last me the next 5 to 10 years depending.
Elk is correct target ammo for clays will be the hardest to find. Even challenger is selling south of the boarder instead of to Canada as the exchange is making them more money.
Good luck finding 20 Guage clay loads.

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

So how do you know how many people actually purchased firearms in Canada for the first time, since there is no long gun registry anymore? The number of PALs doesn't even tell you how many firearms owners there are in Canada, as not all owners ever obtained a PAL, and many that did hold a PAL at one time, have let their PAL expire. If you doubt this, just look at the threads where people ask if they need to take the test over, because they let their PAL expire. And AO members are probably a lot more interested in keeping a PAL from expiring than many people that obtained a PAL to purchase a firearm, then let it expire, because they don't hunt or target shoot.
Now if you could find a trustworthy number of new PALs issued by year, that might be a good indication, but then again , so should so many people taking the PAL course. And the courses keep filling up, so obviously there are a lot of people taking the course, and they usually don't take it, unless they plan on purchasing firearms.

All that I can find is that the number of firearms licenses reached an all time record high in 2021, and that is in spite of not having courses available for considerable periods due to covid, as well as delays in actually processing new PALs. And of course that doesn't account for the PALs that expired during that time period, and that weren't renewed, either to delays, or because some people just didn't bother applying for renewals, due to covid, or other reasons.

https://thegunblog.ca/2022/03/21/can...ecord-in-2021/

You're exaggerating numbers. All time record highs of newly licensed firearms owners in 2021? As in 200 over the previous all time high in 2019? A drop in 2020 when at the same time the U.S. saw 7.5 million new registered firearms owners? My point was NEW firearms owners + panic hoarding are what has caused the shortages in the U.S. Not in Canada. We see some hoarding or deeper buying now for the simple reason that we have no choice. Quantities are limited. The U.S. is buying it all up. Buy it NOW because it might not be available later. Simple laws of supply and demand.

Slice it any way you wish but the fact remains Canada did not see anywhere near the same panic response, leading to massive influxes of new licensed firearm and ammunition buyers as the U.S did over the same time period. They got 7.5 million in 2020. Canada's numbers went down in 2020 from 2019.

First Time licenses and New firearms purchasers. Pretty simple tracking. Since we need a PAL of some sort to buy firearms and ammunition the number of NEW PAL licenses given out tells us how many "potential" NEW firearms buyers are out there. There's been a growth of what, 400k since 2001? 2020 lower numbers than in 2019. 2021 numbers up minutely from 2020.

Using PAL course attendance numbers from Alberta means little. Alberta is one province. Plus you aren't taking attrition numbers of PALS that expire into account. These aren't lifetime memberships without expiry dates. Many do not renew. No PAL = no buying guns and ammo. The number of licensed firearms owners in Canada hasn't shown massive fluctuation in 20 years.

I'm not really sure what facts you're trying to nitpick but massive rises in the numbers of newly licensed firearms owners in Canada being responsible for shortages here shouldn't be one of them. There isn't as much inventory coming north over the border is. Our issues are not remotely similar to those of the U.S.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

You're exaggerating numbers. All time record highs of newly licensed firearms owners in 2021? As in 200 over the previous all time high in 2019? A drop in 2020 when at the same time the U.S. saw 7.5 million new registered firearms owners? My point was NEW firearms owners + panic hoarding are what has caused the shortages in the U.S. Not in Canada. We see some hoarding or deeper buying now for the simple reason that we have no choice. Quantities are limited. The U.S. is buying it all up. Buy it NOW because it might not be available later. Simple laws of supply and demand.

Slice it any way you wish but the fact remains Canada did not see anywhere near the same panic response, leading to massive influxes of new licensed firearm and ammunition buyers as the U.S did over the same time period. They got 7.5 million in 2020. Canada's numbers went down in 2020 from 2019.

First Time licenses and New firearms purchasers. Pretty simple tracking. Since we need a PAL of some sort to buy firearms and ammunition the number of NEW PAL licenses given out tells us how many "potential" NEW firearms buyers are out there. There's been a growth of what, 400k since 2001? 2020 lower numbers than in 2019. 2021 numbers up minutely from 2020.

Using PAL course attendance numbers from Alberta means little. Alberta is one province. Plus you aren't taking attrition numbers of PALS that expire into account. These aren't lifetime memberships without expiry dates. Many do not renew. No PAL = no buying guns and ammo. The number of licensed firearms owners in Canada hasn't shown massive fluctuation in 20 years.

I'm not really sure what facts you're trying to nitpick but massive rises in the numbers of newly licensed firearms owners in Canada being responsible for shortages here shouldn't be one of them. There isn't as much inventory coming north over the border is. Our issues are not remotely similar to those of the U.S.

So where are you finding the number of first time PALs published per year? I can find the 2020 numbers, but no 2021 numbers, and I don't see it broken down to New PALs vs Renewals in the 2018/19 reports.. And the report even mentions that the numbers were down in 2020 due to no courses being offered due to covid, and delays in processing PALs due to covid. So with courses ramping up and delays due to covid no longer the issue, the 2021, and 2022 numbers will be the important numbers to watch.

https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/2020-c...irearms-report

As for shortages, many Americans are buying for the same reasons that we are, because if you don't buy in volume, you will run out and there won't be any more to buy. Just look at the USA businesses, all of the out of stock items, and you will see that it can be even more difficult to find many supplies there.

[270WIN]

Originally Posted by 270person

Many do not renew. No PAL = no buying guns and ammo.

.

Could mean up to 10 years in the slammer, however, for someone who is still in possession of a firearm. Are there really a lot of otherwise law abiding gun owners who are stupid enough to risk that?

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270WIN

Could mean up to 10 years in the slammer, however, for someone who is still in possession of a firearm. Are there really a lot of otherwise law abiding gun owners who are stupid enough to risk that?

There are many people that let their PAL expire, because they don't bother checking the expiry date. There are also many that have firearms, that no longer hunt or target shoot, and that think that since their firearms never leave their homes, they won't get caught. And there are even people that believe that F&W officers won't ask to see a PAL, so they just don't bother.

[270WIN]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

There are many people that let their PAL expire, because they don't bother checking the expiry date. There are also many that have firearms, that no longer hunt or target shoot, and that think that since their firearms never leave their homes, they won't get caught. And there are even people that believe that F&W officers won't ask to see a PAL, so they just don't bother.

Maybe there should be a minimum IQ required to obtain a PAL in addition to the other requirements.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270WIN

Maybe there should be a minimum IQ required to obtain a PAL in addition to the other requirements.

Look at chart 1, over 80,000 expired PALs not renewed, about 20-25% of all PALs that expire every year.

https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/2020-c...irearms-report