Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[RavYak]

Mortality rate is overstated as are severe cases. The only illnesses being reported are the confirmed cases which means you have to be sick enough to be able to get into a doctor AND for them to deem it worth testing to confirm Coronavirus.

CDC has already stated the only way to be tested in USA is if you recently came from China or were in contact with someone known to have Coronavirus. Guaranteed other countries especially the poorer ones aren't testing everyone and most people are likely being told to not come to doctors, hospitals etc unless it is necessary.

Then you also have the large portion of patients that will avoid people even knowing they are sick. Most on here probably wouldn't go to a doctor/hospital if they were having minor flu symptoms and knew the doctors office/hospitals were full of Coronavirus patients...

A similar situation that can be used as an example are those flu statistics just stated, those are obviously just a small portion of the population. Most people dont bother to go to doctor when having flu and many that do dont get treatment or likely reported as having the flu.

I dont doubt that this is a nasty bug but so far at least by all the data being reported it doesnt seem to be a significant issue for healthy individuals. There are a couple signs that make me wonder if it is worse than just a bad flu though(like Japan closing all schools). China tried hard to contain this and a lot of these other countries are not even going to try or will fail miserably at doing so. Lots of companies are working on a vaccination/treatments, I'm hoping one of them will have luck and get things figured out before this takes hold here.

[ghostguy6]

I just got word yesterday that someone forcibly stole my order of nitrile gloves right off the delivery truck. I was in a pharmacy yesterday and they were completely out of face masks as well as medical gloves. The few places that still have dust masks for sale have jacked the prices and are specifically targeting them for pandemic or infection prevention use.The hording has started. The good news is I might get a few days off because work can no longer supply the required PPE. If it continues for long I may be out of a job....

[glen moa]

How can we make a mask at home.
How big of a drop of virus does it take to make you sick.

[Mulehahn]

Originally Posted by ghostguy6

I just got word yesterday that someone forcibly stole my order of nitrile gloves right off the delivery truck. I was in a pharmacy yesterday and they were completely out of face masks as well as medical gloves. The few places that still have dust masks for sale have jacked the prices and are specifically targeting them for pandemic or infection prevention use.The hording has started. The good news is I might get a few days off because work can no longer supply the required PPE. If it continues for long I may be out of a job....

It has definitely begun. I need isopropyl alcohol for work but not a lot so usually just by a bottle every 6 months. Waited too long. Safeway, Walmart, London Drugs, and superstore in my town are all out of rubbing alcohol and hand sanitizer. And couldn't order it online. Costco had 17 cases left out of 2 pallets worth so I bought some; guess i have a couple years supply now.

Everyone was out of hand sanitizer as well. I am often away from running water so keep some in my truck in case. Local dollar store was only place could find any but they were low. I don't need any but stores didn't know when more coming so i bought some

The virus is bad but it wil pass. The panic it will cause could get scary!

[Ken07AOVette]

The masks that are $20Cad for 20 were selling on Ebay for $20 Usd each a month ago.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Mulehahn

It has definitely begun. I need isopropyl alcohol for work but not a lot so usually just by a bottle every 6 months. Waited too long. Safeway, Walmart, London Drugs, and superstore in my town are all out of rubbing alcohol and hand sanitizer. And couldn't order it online. Costco had 17 cases left out of 2 pallets worth so I bought some; guess i have a couple years supply now.

Everyone was out of hand sanitizer as well. I am often away from running water so keep some in my truck in case. Local dollar store was only place could find any but they were low. I don't need any but stores didn't know when more coming so i bought some

The virus is bad but it wil pass. The panic it will cause could get scary!

This is my biggest point. The mayhem that will surround this all. Honestly don't think it will be too crazy here, but if you find yourself in a position where you need something, and can't get it, then what? Doesn't hurt to take simple proactive measures and be prepared a little bit. I think the biggest affect to Canada will be seen through supply chain disruptment, which throws all kinds of things into a tailspin. My workplace is under a billion dollar+ umbrella company, and they own multiple huge interconnected Canadian companies. We have some of the biggest pull across multiple sectors, and we are starting to run into issues already with supply. First in the food line, but there's nothing to be served. Can knit pick numbers all day long. End of the day, this is a big deal, not the common flu. Hopefully even the neigh sayers can see that eventually, that it's more than just whether they get infected or not, still going to be affected. Stock market is starting to show that.

Haha side note, you might be able to sell your supply at a nice margin if not needed!

Second side note, you mentioned this virus will pass. I really don't think so from my research. I think it will eventually slow down, and become endemic. Maybe add it into the common influenza A and B that never goes away class, but not for quite some time. This virus has a lot going for it in terms of longevity. We have no immunity, it's a ssRNA(+) virus, which has high mutation. One positive is that is is quite a long base pair sequence, so it's at the lower end of the high mutation rate for comparable viruses. I think this will be around for quite a while, and the disruption will settle down to a manageable level.

[Justfishin73]

Wife works at costco, they have already seen supply disruptions.......

[fishnguy]

Supply chain perspective:

Financial Post: Chance of Canadian supply-chain disruptions from coronavirus high: RBC

[RavYak]

More evidence to back up my previous post. Who situation report comments on diagnostic limitations and give both confirmed and suspected cases for China. Suspected cases larger than confirmed in the latest report and as far as I can tell these dont get reported any more than in the current report (no cumulative total).

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...pQKyAs8E1M5-V6

Over 80% of cases are mild. Critical cases have high fatality rate but appear to be primarily people with other health issues prior to illness.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...overy.amp.html

Just flew to Toronto from US and next to no visible precautions being taken other than cardboard sign saying be aware and report if you believe you might be sick and a question at customs asking if you have travelled to Wuhan recently... It will probably spread like wildfire once it gets here.

[calgarychef]

I was at Costco tonight, every Asian in the city was there...stocking up on water, toilet paper, soap and sanitizer. It was an unreal Feeling, the tension was palpable.

When I was in England there was a small fuel shortage, people went into panic mode and emptied the gas stations. It took over a week for the fuel companies to get it under control.

That’s going to happen here with all supplies.

[Mulehahn]

When I said this wlll pass I meant that people will just accept it. Not that the virus will go away but by June most will just will accept it as a part of life. However, its the lack of goods and cancelled plans/events people will not accept. In a small scale event like an earthquake or hurricane one small area with a a relatively small mumber of people will be affected but only temporarily. The rest of the world still has supplies to offer to fill the void. What happens when the world runs out?

That is one of the peculiarities of humans. The worse something is the more we just accept it. But the minor inconveniences, those will break a person. 3 billion people getting sick, too large to fathom so we don't. Life goes on. But if a person can't have their morning coffee for 2 weeks; all hell will break loose.

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

This is my biggest point. The mayhem that will surround this all. Honestly don't think it will be too crazy here, but if you find yourself in a position where you need something, and can't get it, then what? Doesn't hurt to take simple proactive measures and be prepared a little bit. I think the biggest affect to Canada will be seen through supply chain disruptment, which throws all kinds of things into a tailspin. My workplace is under a billion dollar+ umbrella company, and they own multiple huge interconnected Canadian companies. We have some of the biggest pull across multiple sectors, and we are starting to run into issues already with supply. First in the food line, but there's nothing to be served. Can knit pick numbers all day long. End of the day, this is a big deal, not the common flu. Hopefully even the neigh sayers can see that eventually, that it's more than just whether they get infected or not, still going to be affected. Stock market is starting to show that.

Haha side note, you might be able to sell your supply at a nice margin if not needed!

Second side note, you mentioned this virus will pass. I really don't think so from my research. I think it will eventually slow down, and become endemic. Maybe add it into the common influenza A and B that never goes away class, but not for quite some time. This virus has a lot going for it in terms of longevity. We have no immunity, it's a ssRNA(+) virus, which has high mutation. One positive is that is is quite a long base pair sequence, so it's at the lower end of the high mutation rate for comparable viruses. I think this will be around for quite a while, and the disruption will settle down to a manageable level.

[Masterchief]

In my discussions with colleagues and friends I find that there is a minimal number of people who are even remotely concerned about this pandemic... am I crazy, going overboard or wtf? The stock market is crashing, people are being quarantined, etc... am I just being paranoid? Someone mentioned going to Costco and it was mayhem, I am planning on going this weekend, any updates? I honestly believe that this is more than the flu, but it's nowhere on anyone's radar... This is serious IMHO, but government and canadians in general are way too complacent. Not a reply on this thread all day, I am planning on getting supplied but everyone thinks I'm crazy... am I ? being completely serious with this question because I think we should be preparing for ther worst

Sent from my SM-G975W using Tapatalk

[EZM]

Everybody Relax ........ Trump said this was a politicized hoax perpetrated by the democrats .... and the Chinese have it all under control .......... nothing to worry about, move along now ..........

[flyrodfisher]

No...I don't think you are crazy. You are concerned like many are...and rightly so.
Most folks today are so engrossed in listening to their tunes on their phones that they couldn't give a rats A** if their pants were on fire.

Many say that it is just the flu, or the flu kills more people every year.

To those I say;
If it is just the flu...why has China blocked and in some cases dug up roads to prevent people from moving around? Do we do that for the regular flu?
If it is just the flu...why are places like South Korea spraying disinfectant in the streets? Do we do that for the regular flu?
If it is just the flu...why are places in Asia and now Europe wiping down handrails and seats in the buses and subways? Do we do that for the regular flu?
If it is just the flu...why have some countries banned pilgrimage travel to their most religious sites? Do we do that for the regular flu?
If it is just the flu...why have some countries quarantined large segments of their populations? Do we do that for the regular flu?

I ask these questions as a person who has NEVER gotten a flu shot in my life...so I'm not one to be overly concerned about these things....but, something tells me that his one is different.
How bad?...I guess time will tell.

BTW thanks to bloopbloob for the charts/updates and information.

[Justfishin73]

All I know is being over prepared has always led to much better results than being under prepared. So I have a few extra cases of canned goods, and a couple months supplies always at hand. Regardless of what's going on now, I've always liked having the security of being able to survive a couple months with no incoming supplies. Never gave it a ton of thought until our kids came.

Might have something to do with wife working at Costco. We always seem to have plenty of food, at least a side of beef equivalent at all times. This is the first time ever that they have had supply disruptions. This has given me pause for thought. I don't think anybody realizes how tight our supply chains are.

Was making 50 lbs of jerky and 50 lbs of pepperoni soon anyway, think I'll get her done this weekend just for kicks.

[flyrodfisher]

Originally Posted by EZM

Everybody Relax ........ Trump said this was a politicized hoax perpetrated by the democrats .... and the Chinese have it all under control .......... nothing to worry about, move along now ..........

LOL

The only thing that would have made Trump's statement to the nation worse would have been if he was wearing a mask at the time.

[Masterchief]

Thanks everyone.... I am a logical person and have recently questioned my sanity, but just don't understand why nobody is taking this seriously. Please don't respond with any flu stats

Sent from my SM-G975W using Tapatalk

[flyrodfisher]

Some that I talk to don't care...the others don't want to hear about it.

Guess if you don't know about it then it can't happen...

[Zip]

Originally Posted by Masterchief

Thanks everyone.... I am a logical person and have recently questioned my sanity, but just don't understand why nobody is taking this seriously. Please don't respond with any flu stats

Sent from my SM-G975W using Tapatalk

We are stocked up with more than enough food and water and fuel etc.. for at the very least 2 months, I’m not paranoid, or scared .. just making sure at the worse case We should be okay.. best case we will still be okay.. I like my odds!
So prepare for the worst but hope for the best...
Zip

[calgarychef]

Originally Posted by Masterchief

In my discussions with colleagues and friends I find that there is a minimal number of people who are even remotely concerned about this pandemic... am I crazy, going overboard or wtf? The stock market is crashing, people are being quarantined, etc... am I just being paranoid? Someone mentioned going to Costco and it was mayhem, I am planning on going this weekend, any updates? I honestly believe that this is more than the flu, but it's nowhere on anyone's radar... This is serious IMHO, but government and canadians in general are way too complacent. Not a reply on this thread all day, I am planning on getting supplied but everyone thinks I'm crazy... am I ? being completely serious with this question because I think we should be preparing for ther worst

Sent from my SM-G975W using Tapatalk

My guess is you won’t be able to get near the place. I went thursday night at 7:00. The lot was packed and they employees were so busy there wasn’t a cart in the entrance... little things like that give big clues. When fully 30% of the shoppers were Asian ... it’s a clue. Maybe they’re paranoid because they’ve heard more rumblings and news through the grapevine than we have. When the minister of health says “stock up” that’s a clue.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by flyrodfisher

No...I don't think you are crazy. You are concerned like many are...and rightly so.
Most folks today are so engrossed in listening to their tunes on their phones that they couldn't give a rats A** if their pants were on fire.

Many say that it is just the flu, or the flu kills more people every year.

To those I say;
If it is just the flu...why has China blocked and in some cases dug up roads to prevent people from moving around? Do we do that for the regular flu?
If it is just the flu...why are places like South Korea spraying disinfectant in the streets? Do we do that for the regular flu?
If it is just the flu...why are places in Asia and now Europe wiping down handrails and seats in the buses and subways? Do we do that for the regular flu?
If it is just the flu...why have some countries banned pilgrimage travel to their most religious sites? Do we do that for the regular flu?
If it is just the flu...why have some countries quarantined large segments of their populations? Do we do that for the regular flu?

I ask these questions as a person who has NEVER gotten a flu shot in my life...so I'm not one to be overly concerned about these things....but, something tells me that his one is different.
How bad?...I guess time will tell.

BTW thanks to bloopbloob for the charts/updates and information.

Thanks to you also for saying many things I've been trying to get across. Kind of stepping back a bit from my posts on this thread, but I know a lot more than what I post. I find graphs a very effective way to convey information, versus numbers or equations, long worded links to scientific journals, etc... If anyone wants to get really detailed into specifics of all this, please contact me! Willing to discuss all sorts of things not posted yet. I have about 15 sets of data going now, with all sorts of predictive models, linear regressions, chi square tests, etc. It intrigues me more than anything. Not paranoid or scared. I have details right down to the genomic sequence, including sources to buy about 15 different RNA primer sequences for parts of this virus. I am only posting simple observations, but also watching bigger trends in the background, including the genetic side of developments for a vaccine. Lots of unshared info, just don't think it would mean much to most

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Masterchief

Thanks everyone.... I am a logical person and have recently questioned my sanity, but just don't understand why nobody is taking this seriously. Please don't respond with any flu stats

Sent from my SM-G975W using Tapatalk

It's just the common flu....

[fishnguy]

There two community transmitted cases down south now:

2nd US case of person who got virus from community

Health officials have confirmed the second case of novel coronavirus in the United States believed to have been transmitted to a person who didn’t travel internationally or come in close contact with anyone who had it.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that officials are “aware of a second possible instance of community spread of COVID-19 in California.” The CDC said in a statement that the patient has tested positive for the virus and is considered a presumptive positive case.

Health officials in San Jose said the patient was an older adult woman with chronic health conditions who does not have a travel history or any known contact with a traveler or infected person. It comes a day after state officials said a woman hospitalized at UC Davis Health Center in Sacramento had contracted the illness after no known contact.

“This new case indicates that there is evidence of community transmission but the extent is still not clear,” said Dr. Sara Cody, Health Officer for Santa Clara County and Director of the County of Santa Clara Public Health Department.

Solano County Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas said public health officials have identified dozens of people — but less than 100 — who had close contact with the woman. They are quarantined in their homes. and a few who have shown symptoms are in isolation, Matyas said.

[HunterDave]

Originally Posted by Masterchief

Thanks everyone.... I am a logical person and have recently questioned my sanity, but just don't understand why nobody is taking this seriously. Please don't respond with any flu stats.

Whatta ya mean? There’s a whole thread of people posting how seriously that they think it is.

It sounds like you are disappointed that more people aren’t panicking about the Coronavirus.

There’s a difference between paying attention and being concerned, and being totally consumed by it.

[JD848]

Originally Posted by HunterDave

Whatta ya mean? There’s a whole thread of people posting how seriously that they think it is.

It sounds like you are disappointed that more people aren’t panicking about the Coronavirus.

There’s a difference between paying attention and being concerned, and being totally consumed by it.

I hear ya HD ,you would have to be crazy not to pay attention and not be concerned if it went crazy, but being consumed 18 hours a day repeating the same thing post after post feeding on each other is very strange.

When I read a few post by some members I automatically see Jack's face in One FLEW OVER THE CUCKKO'S NEST,how could you not.

JD

[glen moa]

If it looks like they are going to quarantine your town do you leave before it happens?

I know a guy that was on the cruise ship in Japan. He had Coronavirus and was taken ashore. In Trenton now feeling better. Long trip.

[tbiddy]

Here’s an article from somebody that has Coronavirus

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...isnt-that-bad/

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by EZM

Everybody Relax ........ Trump said this was a politicized hoax perpetrated by the democrats .... and the Chinese have it all under control .......... nothing to worry about, move along now ..........

I saw that !!!! Just when you think he can't possibly get any dumber

[raab]

Originally Posted by calgarychef

My guess is you won’t be able to get near the place. I went thursday night at 7:00. The lot was packed and they employees were so busy there wasn’t a cart in the entrance... little things like that give big clues. When fully 30% of the shoppers were Asian ... it’s a clue. Maybe they’re paranoid because they’ve heard more rumblings and news through the grapevine than we have. When the minister of health says “stock up” that’s a clue.

Apparently youve never been to Costco. Its always like that...

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by raab

Apparently youve never been to Costco. Its always like that...

If anyone needs practice in combat shopping try going to the Costco in Richmond BC !!!!! It's insane on a normal quiet day!!!!!!