Coyote price tanked?

[Reddog]

And here I’ve just been trying to blind set him all this time...

[trapperdodge]

I remember when BSE hit. A fellow was selling some cull cows at the auction mart. A buzz was in the air and bidding stopped at half of what you might expect. The guy pulled his cows and took them home where he continued to feed them.

The market collapsed as border after border closed to Canadian beef. It took a long time to sort out.

Not saying this is the same thing but these things have a way of getting darn complicated in a hurry.

[goose slayer10]

Originally Posted by H380

So you're saying we gotta bait him ??

A wise man once told me “please bait more”

[HunterDave]

Apparently not everyone got the memo about the price for coyote tanking. Not for Eastern coyotes anyway.
Copied and pasted from a US trapping site:

“Herkimer NY FUR AUCTION from 2/1
the largest fur auction in NY

These are just ranges on prices paid while I was there.....NOT OFFICIAL RESULTS

95% of fur was put up
5% was green

I was there for just a few hours in late morning but many hours left to go in afternoon and evening

COYOTES WERE SMOKIN’ HOT

9 buyers

Castor 80-90 per pound
Good coyote 65-85
Average & red coyotes 25 - 45
Reds high teens
Fisher 30-50
Greys teens
Coons 2-15
Beaver 10 -30
Rats large & under $3 tops
Xl and up 4-6

NOT OFFICIAL RESULTS

Most prices were fairly similar to last years prices except coyotes....they were up”

[Marty S]

Nobody in the know said it tanked yet.

However, there is honest to goodness uncertainty in the air. We have not dropped our prices but the chiefs are watching close.

[204ruger]

Just sold more coyotes to groenwald this morning. 130$ average.
Bryce said he’ll know better this coming weekend when he tries to ship a container of raw fur (mostly raccoons) into China.

[Marty S]

Originally Posted by Bobbert Trapper

. China oil demand down 20% !! Coronavirus lock down. Can’t see how fur market and every other commodity can’t take a hit. They call this type of unexpected negative surprise a Black Swan Event

It’s a real thing - the unexpected economic sledge hammer 🔨!!

Black swan theory:

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.

... from a very smart man/investor/businessman/Canadian-trapper/multimillionaire

So now whatcha got ta say fer yerself Davey???


ps... Bobbert Trapper... not his real name... an alternative name has been created/used to protect his name and/or identity and that of his family, property, and his dawg

[HunterDave]

Originally Posted by Marty S

... from a very smart man/investor/businessman/Canadian-trapper/multimillionaire

So now whatcha got ta say fer yerself Davey???

ps... Bobbert Trapper... not his real name... an alternative name has been created/used to protect his name and/or identity and that of his family, property, and his dawg

Pffffttttt.......

“Carrots are devine… You get a dozen for a dime, It’s maaaa-gic.”.......Bugs Bunny.

I think that you have the AC Virus.

[Big Grey Wolf]

My old thoughts are 1) We lost NAFA the oldest/largest NA auction house 2) The Corona Virus will keep major Chinese buyers from our auctions 3) The US sanctions on Russia has been keeping a lot of their buyers out of the game especially for marten/sable.
I would recommend selling to cash buyers as much uncertainty in Auction market going forward. ( Obviously at decent $$ prices)

[coyote_man]

Coyote prices have remained at a good price for almost too long in my opinion.Im up in age and have lived through some real interesting price changes.Are we going to see another big change in the not so distant future?We can only keep on guessing and time will tell.Many interesting opinions out there.One thing I do know is that the high prices over the last several years have lowered coyote numbers in my area.

[209x50]

From somebody away above us trappers in the food chain: "....panic caused by US buyer lowering his price by 25% in buying coyotes. There are 3 main coyote buyers in the west and all 3 are supplying the same guy who just happens to be from China and he is never part of the group buying the first few pages in the coyote auction if you get my drift. Roll in and put on a big show pay fair price for early goods and NOW 25% less for far more seasonable goods and the reason is a virus HUH.. ( an old story) The top fashion houses are the ones and they only buy proof certified traceability product.... "

What do I know? I know that during SARS NAFA moved their auction out of Toronto the epicenter of the virus. The auctions sold well that year. What is taking a hit is the ranch fur again. Mink sales have been cancelled and that will only drive the price for wild fur up. Just my guess on that last one.

[trigger7mm]

This makes me wonder; if China doesn’t buy their usual amount of fur this year, and they get this corona virus thing figured out, what would they pay next year to make up for this bad one? Should be interesting.

[HunterDave]

Who are the BIG coyote buyers.....China, Canada, Other?

I'm going to have to read the old NAFA auction summaries I guess.

As far as I know there is only one big Chinese manufacturer of coyote trimmed parkas (forget the name) and they are offering lower quality goods as an inexpensive alternative to paying big bucks for an expensive CG parka. Canada Goose, Nobis and Woods parkas are all manufactured in Canada.

Sales for Canada Goose parkas are +65% in North America and about 35% in the rest of the world (ie. Europe and Asia). So, what are these Canadian manufacturers to do, buy fewer coyotes in anticipation that there will be fewer sales in China? What if the economy is good but they don't have enough product to sell? No, they still have to make sure that their racks are full and any weakness in sales won't be realized until next year.

I'm pretty sure that the gift buying season in China happened before and right up to the Coronavirus scare. So, holiday sales in China should be a done deal for this season and the coyote buying now is for next season.

CG stores in Asia......HONG KONG (x2), BEIJING, SHENYANG, SHANGHAI, TOKYO. As far as I know it's business as usual in those cities.....I could be wrong though.

There's only one big auction now for coyotes and it only happens a couple/few times per year. Last year NAFA only offered 50K of the anticipated 70K in the first auction. This was good news for Trappers but not so much for buyers who ended up paying more for coyotes. In the second auction buyers were starving for coyotes and that drove the prices way up. It appears that trend is continuing even stronger into this season.

I can be convinced that coyote fur is doomed but I haven't read anything that would indicate that......quite the contrary actually.
Does anyone really think that representatives for Chinese buyers aren't going to be at the FHA auction?
Besides, "Cuz, the Coronavirus.", if there's a reasonable explanation as to why coyotes would drop in price I'm all ears.

[shakeyleg02]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...hange-activism

[Big Grey Wolf]

Dave, I have been under estimating your 'Wisdom' all these years. I think all that fresh air chasing those coyotes and beaver has cleared out your brain cells. Nice summary of potential fur market going forward.

[Ted V.]

Dear Dave....

I am so thrilled to have learned everything I know from such an all knowing power like yourself. I’ve been reading for years on this forum and now after intently reading and studying all your information I’ve become the man I am today! Thank you Dave

Your dedicated reader on the hunter dave forum

Ted

[HunterDave]

Originally Posted by Ted V.

Dear Dave....

I am so thrilled to have learned everything I know from such an all knowing power like yourself. I’ve been reading for years on this forum and now after intently reading and studying all your information I’ve become the man I am today! Thank you Dave

Your dedicated reader on the hunter dave forum

Ted

Let me guess, Ted, you’re offering lower prices “Cuz, coronavirus”.

[Marty S]

And what about the fricking AC Virus boys... how’s that going to play into the markets???

Is that going to keep the Chinese folks at bay too?

[Thunder Elk Hunter]

Look at Fur Harvesters press release from today.

[HunterDave]

Originally Posted by Thunder Elk Hunter

Look at Fur Harvesters press release from today.

Probably a good idea for FHA to quash these rumours......Thanks.

https://www.furharvesters.com/pdf/pr...aseFEB6_20.pdf

[kritz]

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topst...06a?li=AAggFp5

Financial info from today from Canada Goose.

[Marty S]

Do click the link in the previous post

Very sad/woeful music... very sad

[FishOutOfWater]

Originally Posted by Marty S

Do click the link in the previous post.

Very sad/woeful music... very sad

Sad indeed... Such a shame that the Company will only make 13% more than they did last year, and not 20% increase in profits like they projected.

So they'll only make ~ $947 million this year... What a shame.

[Marty S]

Wow, that is a very large image. Sorry

[threeforthree]

Originally Posted by Marty S

Wow, that is a very large image. Sorry

Finally do not have put glasses on. lol