US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by EZM

I have no trouble understanding math, or comprehending this at all. Thanks for asking.

I made ZERO references to any statistical distributions (by age) associated with aggregate mortality, as they relate to infections. NONE.

Now, you are trying to deflect and re-direct the conversation and trying to save face.

If you want to speak to mortality rate by age distribution, that's fine, make your point.

That is my point. Your analogy is completely misleading, dramatized, and false. Because you choose to ignore other factors.

In addition to that, you completely ignore the fact that the reality of actual infection rates would put death rates at less than 1%. Possibly significantly so.

Bottom line is, very very few people trust what is being presented or what’s being said. Why? Because we are lied to about this thing every day.

[Fisherdan]

Originally Posted by EZM

Agreed that testing and the congruency of the data collection took most jurisdictions some time to get right - true - but I'd say the data is the best we have right now - at least the most credible.

To suggest a higher or lower rate from anyone, would be based on conjecture, but I'd say it's likely pretty accurate at this point and accuracy continues to improve the more data we get in (over these last 3-4 months or so).

I don't know if Alberta's data would be more accurate or less accurate compared to other jurisdictions - and not to argue, but why would you say that? just curious.

A party where someone dies would suck. Agreed. But if I'm having any party, you can bet there will be pretty ladies and cold beers. Without them, it's no party.

Cold beer and pretty ladies... I’m in!

The only reason I’m harping on Alberta is because we’ve had the best testing in Canada since day one. That’s all. And it wasn’t even that good in the beginning. A lot of people who should’ve got tested simply couldn’t and were told to wait it out at home for two weeks. Ontario and Quebec didn’t even have masks for crying out loud.

[WildBillG]

Let me get this straight I believe math tells us that100000is 10% of 100000. That would make 10000 1% right. Our population is 4.8 million I believe. There fore our infection ate is well below 1% and the death rateis way less then a tenth of one percent. Yet we are acting like if we go any where near another human we are dead. As I have said I should be worried but I think I have a better chance at winning the lottery and I don't buy ticets.

[Mr Flyguy]

Originally Posted by WildBillG

Let me get this straight I believe math tells us that100000is 10% of 100000. That would make 10000 1% right. Our population is 4.8 million I believe. There fore our infection ate is well below 1% and the death rateis way less then a tenth of one percent. Yet we are acting like if we go any where near another human we are dead. As I have said I should be worried but I think I have a better chance at winning the lottery and I don't buy ticets.

Can't spell either but that's another story!

[EZM]

Originally Posted by chuck

That is my point. Your analogy is completely misleading, dramatized, and false. Because you choose to ignore other factors.

In addition to that, you completely ignore the fact that the reality of actual infection rates would put death rates at less than 1%. Possibly significantly so.

Bottom line is, very very few people trust what is being presented or what’s being said. Why? Because we are lied to about this thing every day.

The data is not mine.

The data is from the Government websites.

It's clear on infection and mortality rates. That's what I posted.

These are facts.

I know there's math there, and some reading comprehension, but I think I figured it out Chuck.

If you think that data is manipulated, or misleading, I don't know what to tell you. Go tell them they are misleading, manipulating and lying to people. Fill your boots.

I don't have a clue how you come up with "less than 1%" of "actual infection rates" but I'm sure all of us would love to hear it Chuck. Please enlighten us simpletons.

Let me give you hint ..... you want to use "mortality" compared to "total population" for the point you are trying to make I think .....

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

If this is in fact the truth, you have to ask yourself, do you hide for the rest of your life or do you live an enjoyable life and accept the consequences?


I know what I’m going to do.

I'm not hiding but I am following the recommended guidelines, and I'm leading a very enjoyable life. I've dealt with infectious materials my entire career and the answer is always the same. Wash your hands, and keep away from anything that might infect you. The same thing that the public has been told from the very beginning. Many people in the US have made a point to flaunt the common sense rules and so the country is the worlds poster child of how to screw up. They are now living with the consequences.

[WildBillG]

All of these numbers still do not explain why if the virus was here in Dec. was there no out break then. No body was social distancing no one wore a mask. People were crowded in stores shopping no out break. Then in March we were told we had anout break and locked down and people got sick. Some where along the line they the experts we are to trust with our lives are lying to us. Am I the only one seeing this. People there is more to this then just a viral out break.

Oh and Bessiedog my mother passed away 15 years ago thanks for not thinking before you speak.

[Osky]

Originally Posted by Scott h

I'm not hiding but I am following the recommended guidelines, and I'm leading a very enjoyable life. I've dealt with infectious materials my entire career and the answer is always the same. Wash your hands, and keep away from anything that might infect you. The same thing that the public has been told from the very beginning. Many people in the US have made a point to flaunt the common sense rules and so the country is the worlds poster child of how to screw up. They are now living with the consequences.

Maybe not. When the nations death toll parallels Minnesotas having more than 75% of the deaths being people over 80 and in senior facilities, the same facilities that governors in those cities ordered to accept Covid cases. That doesn't show me that the American people are flaunting common sense.
Also, you all better get a second pair of glasses for when your first wear out watching the sky fall because this is here for the long haul. I've watched and waited and no one has brought up the biggest threat to all of us which is the 25 plus million illegals in America. They fly under the radar and won't be coming out anytime soon to be tested or counted. They will keep this virus going.

Osky

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Scott h

I'm not hiding but I am following the recommended guidelines, and I'm leading a very enjoyable life. I've dealt with infectious materials my entire career and the answer is always the same. Wash your hands, and keep away from anything that might infect you. The same thing that the public has been told from the very beginning. Many people in the US have made a point to flaunt the common sense rules and so the country is the worlds poster child of how to screw up. They are now living with the consequences.

It was all the people protesting and rioting in the streets that got them to where they are today. When people live their normal day to day life, hand washing and social distancing are possible, you don’t see a whole lot of hand washing and social distancing going on in a protest or riot. If you want to point fingers, point them at stupid people.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by WildBillG

All of these numbers still do not explain why if the virus was here in Dec. was there no out break then. No body was social distancing no one wore a mask. People were crowded in stores shopping no out break. Then in March we were told we had anout break and locked down and people got sick. Some where along the line they the experts we are to trust with our lives are lying to us. Am I the only one seeing this. People there is more to this then just a viral out break.

Oh and Bessiedog my mother passed away 15 years ago thanks for not thinking before you speak.

If the virus was here in December, it was here in such small numbers that it wasn't noticed. People may have been infected and placed in hospital, but it wasn't recognized. I'm sure their death certificate noted that they died of a community acquired pneumonia. The more infections that occur in the community, the more the virus can spread. Can you remember Northern Italy? How about New York? If I was someone that had any chronic health issues, I would be very, very careful.

[WildBillG]

Scotth the virus when noted in march was in small numbers. We are told it spreads like a grass fire it should have in Dec. Who says if you get it you die that is the scare tactic thing. 154 deaths out of a population of roughly 4.8 million people rather low death odds.

What is bugging me most here is that so many are fine with all the restrictions. Even though they are saying it will never go away and we can't build antibodies to it. That men we stay in a state of semi lock down for life right. The government is pushing we will stay under scrutiny until there are no new cases. If it flares up again we go back to lock down. This does not sound like life in a free country to me. We are missing the big picture because we are afraid of what.

[C@RN@GE]

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...try/singapore/

Signapore death rate is sitting at 0.006. 43907 and only 26 deaths. Funny how no news/media stations report this. But rather just the countries that have horrible testing. So the death rates look inflated.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by WildBillG

Scotth the virus when noted in march was in small numbers. We are told it spreads like a grass fire it should have in Dec. Who says if you get it you die that is the scare tactic thing. 154 deaths out of a population of roughly 4.8 million people rather low death odds.

What is bugging me most here is that so many are fine with all the restrictions. Even though they are saying it will never go away and we can't build antibodies to it. That men we stay in a state of semi lock down for life right. The government is pushing we will stay under scrutiny until there are no new cases. If it flares up again we go back to lock down. This does not sound like life in a free country to me. We are missing the big picture because we are afraid of what.

That's not what is being said by health professionals. SARS and MERS spread like a wildfire and thats why they burnt themselves out. You caught it, and you died shortly after. This virus allows you to walk around for days or weeks and thus you get a chance to spread it before you get sick.
That's why they have an R/O number to quantify the ability to spread.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by WildBillG

All of these numbers still do not explain why if the virus was here in Dec. was there no out break then. No body was social distancing no one wore a mask. People were crowded in stores shopping no out break. Then in March we were told we had anout break and locked down and people got sick. Some where along the line they the experts we are to trust with our lives are lying to us. Am I the only one seeing this. People there is more to this then just a viral out break.

Viruses will develop and continue to mutate and change how infectious and transmittable they are, how deadly they are, how long they incubate and what systems they attack in their hosts - knowing this - it could be either the transmission rates were lower, or the incubation period was shorter, or the effects were not as severe - or maybe all three.

That's why it's a "moving target" and as strains of SARS, or influenza, or whatever change we need new vaccines every once in a while. The older vaccines become useless and the virus becomes resistant to it.

At least that's how I understand it.

[MyAlberta]

Originally Posted by Osky

Maybe not. When the nations death toll parallels Minnesotas having more than 75% of the deaths being people over 80 and in senior facilities, the same facilities that governors in those cities ordered to accept Covid cases. That doesn't show me that the American people are flaunting common sense.
Also, you all better get a second pair of glasses for when your first wear out watching the sky fall because this is here for the long haul. I've watched and waited and no one has brought up the biggest threat to all of us which is the 25 plus million illegals in America. They fly under the radar and won't be coming out anytime soon to be tested or counted. They will keep this virus going.

Osky

I thought you guys were building a wall?

[WildBillG]

The accines are supposed to build antibobies in our body. Our antibodies are supposed to fight the virus or what have you. That should mean if the vaccine works our body should have some immunity to a given bug even if mutated some. That is the way I under stand it. But people are saying here that we can not build antibodies to this virus. That would mean that giving a vaccine would be a total waste of time right. Which would also mean we are being lead down a garden path to nothing. Which would lead one to ask then what was in that vaccine at least I sure would.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by MyAlberta

I thought you guys were building a wall?

The wall they are spending billions building is on the southern border with Mexico. Trump only wanted to place the army on Canadas border so that........ Hey wait, why did he want thousands of troops on our border ????????

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by WildBillG

The accines are supposed to build antibobies in our body. Our antibodies are supposed to fight the virus or what have you. That should mean if the vaccine works our body should have some immunity to a given bug even if mutated some. That is the way I under stand it. But people are saying here that we can not build antibodies to this virus. That would mean that giving a vaccine would be a total waste of time right. Which would also mean we are being lead down a garden path to nothing. Which would lead one to ask then what was in that vaccine at least I sure would.

Watch a credible news source covering someone like Fauci for info on a vaccine. They are working on it, but nobody knows when it will be available.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by WildBillG

The accines are supposed to build antibobies in our body. Our antibodies are supposed to fight the virus or what have you. That should mean if the vaccine works our body should have some immunity to a given bug even if mutated some. That is the way I under stand it. But people are saying here that we can not build antibodies to this virus. That would mean that giving a vaccine would be a total waste of time right. Which would also mean we are being lead down a garden path to nothing. Which would lead one to ask then what was in that vaccine at least I sure would.

I heard something about that recently too but I think the news simplified it to the point where that statement isn't a good description of what happens with vaccines. BUT, nevertheless, that's gonna be real bad if we don't find a vaccine or some other treatment that is effective. Running it's course isn't the best option (obviously speaking) if we had a treatment and immunity.

Here's a good article, long, but pretty interesting on that subject. (and it's a credible scientific journal - not a commentary and news article).

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...t-do-no-harm1/

[gman1978]

Lots of self righteous Canadians going off on the US. Maybe look in the mirror .

[ward]

Originally Posted by gman1978

Lots of self righteous Canadians going off on the US. Maybe look in the mirror .

I agree, it is one thing to discuss the mistakes that have been made. Another to enjoy the resulting fallout. The present relationship between the two countries is far from the best it has ever been. The result of a strange period in both countries. But the US is and will continue to be our best ally and friend, like it or not.

[58thecat]

Originally Posted by WayneChristie

mine prefered to stay home for a big gulp

Dam I do enjoy you......

happy Canada Day All.....it's raining and yup we are all alone too

[Coiloil37]

Originally Posted by C@RN@GE

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...try/singapore/

Signapore death rate is sitting at 0.006. 43907 and only 26 deaths. Funny how no news/media stations report this. But rather just the countries that have horrible testing. So the death rates look inflated.

You missed a zero for Singapore. You meant .0006

Here in Oz we’ve got a death rate of .013 and in QLD with a population over 5 million we’ve had a total of 1067 cases with 6 deaths which equates to .0056
Currently there are two active cases in the state so the number could move a hair but not much.
I’ve obviously lived in both countries and people are on average more active, less obese and overall healthier here but the numbers still seem highly varied across countries.

[1899b]

Originally Posted by Scott h

I'm not hiding but I am following the recommended guidelines, and I'm leading a very enjoyable life. I've dealt with infectious materials my entire career and the answer is always the same. Wash your hands, and keep away from anything that might infect you. The same thing that the public has been told from the very beginning. Many people in the US have made a point to flaunt the common sense rules and so the country is the worlds poster child of how to screw up. They are now living with the consequences.

There have been recommended guidelines for a healthy life wayyyyy before Covid. The guideline being, don’t be a fat out of shape person as it compromises your immune system. Don’t lead a healthy lifestyle? Face the consequences....

I was always taught to wash my hands. I see posters in washrooms now stating to wash your hands. Really??? I guess it’s a new or never taught concept for some so posters about it must be displayed...

[calgarychef]

Originally Posted by 1899b

There have been recommended guidelines for a healthy life wayyyyy before Covid. The guideline being, don’t be a fat out of shape person as it compromises your immune system. Don’t lead a healthy lifestyle? Face the consequences....

I was always taught to wash my hands. I see posters in washrooms now stating to wash your hands. Really??? I guess it’s a new or never taught concept for some so posters about it must be displayed...

The number of people who don’t wash their hands is crazy.

[Benelli1]

Originally Posted by calgarychef

The number of people who don’t wash their hands is crazy.

Yup back when I was employed in a office environment, we had this one guy that would come into the washroom, go over to the sink and wash his hands, then over to the urinal, do his business, then walk out. Must have had something special down there.

[Hadji Ramjet]

Originally Posted by Jigsalot

Ok I’ll bite. If you test positive you are infected. Isn’t that obvious or you trying to tell us something different

People can carry sufficient virus fragments post-infection to test positive, when they are no longer infected. Just one example.

[270person]

Originally Posted by Hadji Ramjet

FFS, I flew into Aukland in late May.

Well you're obviously very special. Or invisible.

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/abou...and-exceptions

[1899b]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

It was all the people protesting and rioting in the streets that got them to where they are today. When people live their normal day to day life, hand washing and social distancing are possible, you don’t see a whole lot of hand washing and social distancing going on in a protest or riot. If you want to point fingers, point them at stupid people.

I wonder why McMurray didn’t spike then when hundreds were shoulder to shoulder sand bagging the hospital and ripping out basements in the lower townsite during and after the flood?

[1899b]

Originally Posted by calgarychef

The number of people who don’t wash their hands is crazy.

I called out a guy at work once that shook himself off at the urinal and left the washroom while I washed my hands. Walked to the service counter and he’s dipping his hand into the community 40 Timbit box. I was ready to rag doll him in the parking lot but the public shaming i gave him in front of coworkers and the service manager was good enough. Pig.....