US Covid19 pandemic blowing up...how bad will it get?

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by 270person

Technology is tough for some folks and typing Google, Copy, Paste is hard work. Far easier to just verbalize.

The irony here is palpable.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by 270person

Technology is tough for some folks and typing Google, Copy, Paste is hard work. Far easier to just verbalize.

Yup - Agreed - Once again, nothing of substance from these guys, nothing substantiated, nothing posted from credible sources just absolute dribble and utter nonsense.

What do we expect from these guys?

Every single credible source, even the ones from the President's own administration, his own CDC appointed leaders, all the credible experts, yet here we go round and round.

It's unbelievable really.

It's no longer ignorance, as the facts are posted there to clearly see. I could accept ignorance. I really could.

But at this point - It's now either an inability to understand and comprehend simple facts and read simple numbers.

OR

It's the intentional misdirection and purposeful denial. To some people personal credibility or personal reputation don't matter.

I'd have more respect if someone just said, "yeah, I know it's getting worse, but I feel the best course of action is to let er' buck !!"

Crazy really.

[raab]

Originally Posted by nelsonob1

No one's going to be fully open if the hospitals are full and people are dying in the carpark. No one has seen yet what it will mean to run out of hospital capacity but I'd bet it won't look pretty to a bunch of middle class Americans. And if or when it happens what the governor says won't matter. People's natural instincts to protect themselves and their families will dictate what is open and what is closed.

We need our government and community leaders to start making plans on keeping as much of the economy open whilst protecting the most vulnerable. We need a plan that is as much economic as well as health centric and we need to take control out of the hands of health officials and have a more balanced approach.

I agree completely, protect the vulnerable, and let the rest go. I don’t think hospital capacity will be an issue. They can set up field hospitals relatively quickly and administer IV and O2 in those.

[raab]

Originally Posted by EZM

Do you have a source of data for that? (not a news article but a study from a credible source) - if not never mind.

I did see a couple news articles on this too but there really wasn't any data there and nothing actually cited .... just curious.

That would be interesting to see.

Here's the first one that popped up - but nothing cited other than a statement form what should be a very credible source but nothing to back it up.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...be-10-n1232134

Not exactly what your looking for, but should point you in the right direction. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-...-asymptomatic/ https://www.advisory.com/daily-brief...matic-patients

[KegRiver]

I have backed away from this site. But every once in a while I drop in to see if there is anything worth commenting on.

Most of the time it's not worth the time for me to say anything so I just have a look and go on to better things.

It seems that the Chicken Little's of the world are the loudest noise out there right now.

Recently there has been a lot of noise about wearing masks. That lead me to this thread, and this comment.

First, read what Alberta Health has to say about that. The say and I quote,

wear a mask in public when distancing is not possible

When to use a mask
Areas where it may be difficult to maintain the 2 mete distance from other people not in your household (for prolonged period of times e.g. 15 minutes or longer).

It’s important that masks are used and disposed of properly. If worn incorrectly, you can accidently spread infection instead of preventing it.

All that is directly from Alberta Health. So why are people in Calgary livid about me not wearing a mask every single time I'm out in public, 700 miles from them and their loved ones? What is so hard to understand about those guidlines?

Moreover, any one person's chances of contacting this virus or any other for that matter, on any given day is something in the neighborhood of one in 10,000.
To put that another way, only one in 10,000 people you meet are likely to be infected with this virus on the day you encounter them..

Couple that with the simple fact that 99.9% of those who become infected, will survive and something around 99% of those will experience no complications.
Yet people are happy to get all bent out of shape about the chance that they may eventually become infected.

Yeah you might catch it from someone who was careless, but you could also get it from someone who took all the precautions as happened recently at the Misericordia.
More importantly, if you were to pass the virus on to one of your senior relatives then you weren't taking the recommended precautions were you.

And if you did become infected the chance of you catching it from a friend, co-worker, or family member is thousands of times more likely then of me infecting you or anyone you know.

What I'd like to know is where people get off accusing me, who lives 700 miles away, of risking their relatives lives.

You know how long it will take me to meet 10,000 people in this neighborhood?
I'll tell you, it'll take a year or more. This is NOT Calgary.

So you go ahead and pick what I say apart. Yeah my math is probability off by a fraction of a percentage point, so what! In the real world that makes zero difference.

More and more every day I am thankful for where I live. No one here screaming at their neighbors for being outside or for not wearing a mask.
No one here is telling visitors to stay away. And no one here is rioting.

It may be true that most of the world has gone crazy. But not here, not yet anyway.
So I am happy staying in my little corner of the world while the crazy people try to kill each other over the common flu.

Yeah this is not the common flu, but the numbers show it is not a lot worse.
One has to be honest to do a fair comparison.

The common flu has killed around 2,500,000 over the past five years.
That's two and a half million in JUST five years and it's been killing people for a lot more then just five years..
Fact is the common flu has hit us with not one wave or two but hundreds of successive waves. And people are getting all twisted out of shape over this virus!

Un Be Leave A Bull!

One last thought, first it was protesters wearing suits made to look like female genitalia, As that died down along came the impeachment proceedings, When that failed, low and behold up sprang Covid-19. When it became apparent that authorities were going to let people go back to work up popped the race riots.

Of course that isn't proof of anything. But with circumstantial evidence like that a good prosecutor could get a murder conviction 9 times out of 10

Oh and guess who stands to loose trillions of dollars if Donald Trump succeeds in reviving the US manufacturing sector?

That's right, China, and some very rich folks in the US.

The question is, would they sacrifice the livelihood of millions of people in order to protect their income.

Maybe a better question is what would you be willing to do for a few Billion dollars?

Just something to think about.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by EZM

Yup - Agreed - Once again, nothing of substance from these guys, nothing substantiated, nothing posted from credible sources just absolute dribble and utter nonsense.

What do we expect from these guys?

Every single credible source, even the ones from the President's own administration, his own CDC appointed leaders, all the credible experts, yet here we go round and round.

It's unbelievable really.

It's no longer ignorance, as the facts are posted there to clearly see. I could accept ignorance. I really could.

But at this point - It's now either an inability to understand and comprehend simple facts and read simple numbers.

OR

It's the intentional misdirection and purposeful denial. To some people personal credibility or personal reputation don't matter.

I'd have more respect if someone just said, "yeah, I know it's getting worse, but I feel the best course of action is to let er' buck !!"

Crazy really.

Yea it is crazy.

https://www.hpnonline.com/infection-...n-deaths-in-us

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/reason.c...ovid-19/%3famp

[Pathfinder76]

Crazy town

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wash...outputType=amp

[Pathfinder76]

Crazy crazy town.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.hopk...flu%3famp=true

[Pathfinder76]

Caaarazy.

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/0ORD6...om-coronavirus

[sns2]

If they shut down schools again in the fall, please let it be for October and November. I'll be going hunting!!!

[Pathfinder76]

Cacacacaaaasraaaaaazy

https://youtu.be/O587b8yBtVs

[KegRiver]

Originally Posted by raab

I agree completely, protect the vulnerable, and let the rest go. I don’t think hospital capacity will be an issue. They can set up field hospitals relatively quickly and administer IV and O2 in those.

The only problem with that is as far as I know the most vulnerable are protected as much as practical already.

My sister works in a Seniors Center. Since March, every day she has worked she has had to go to the Hospital for a battery of tests before heading in to work. Once there they take her temperature and ask a number of questions about symptoms. They may require more that I don't know about, my sister has only talked about some of what her life is like now.
BTW, my sister, like me has heart disease and a lung condition so she is high risk as am I.

I am also not allowed to visit her at work or visit any of the residents, some of whom are friends and neighbors.

I also spent some time in hospital recently. There was some concern for my heart condition that also resulted in me being air lifted to Edmonton.

In both hospitals, everyone, staff and patients were required to wear masks when in the presence of others. And we were all required to disinfect our hands every time we touched any surface outside our rooms or for staff, any time they touched anything in our rooms.

And yet, some seniors centers have had major outbreaks and at least one hospital as has well.

Taking some precautions does make sense, but there has to be a limit.
Clearly the present precautions are not 100% effective.
The question is, at what is an acceptable level of risk.

The simple fact is we all accept a certain level of risk with a lot of things we do, when we feel the benefits outweigh the risk.

Every year 200 to 300 people die in car accidents in this province yet we still drive vehicles.
Meanwhile Covid-19 has killed just 160 people in this province.

Is it worth the cost to our grandchildren's future to try to prevent a few deaths that may not happen.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I am a senior and I do have per-existing health issues. I AM high risk from this virus.

Of course I also know a lot of other seniors. And we talk about this issue.

Everyone I have talked to agrees, we would risk out lives for our grandchildren's sake. If it comes to a choice between risking getting Covid-29 and out grandchildren's future we accept the risk.

Of course some seniors would not agree, that belongs to them. I have no doubt the overwhelming majority of us are willing to accept any risk if it means our grand-kids have a chance at a better future.

So the question becomes, do we force rules on the majority for the sake of the few.

Last I heard this was a democracy where the majority rules.

Now watch while a hundred thirty somethings tell me I'm wrong. Like I have no idea what it is like to be a senior.

And some wonder why some are calling for the disbandment of all police forces.

This is why. because the few think they know more then the majority.

[EZM]

Originally Posted by chuck

Crazy crazy town.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.hopk...flu%3famp=true

Thank you Chuck.

The articles you posted there precisely underpin and support your point and lend credibility to your perspective.

That wasn't so tough was it ......

Ok - so what was the point here? aren't you in the camp that says this is no big deal? 2.2 million deaths sounds like a big deal to me.

On the other hand, if you are saying the early information was inaccurate and invalidated - you are right. I agree. BUT if left unchecked, I think we all agree it will get worse.

so ....... Based on this 1% infected and some people say it's closer to, say, 10% (10 times higher for arguments sake) and the US has 130,000 deaths already ....

well .......... 10% x 10 times more people*** to get 100% = 1.3 million

am I right?

I'd say 1.3 million people, wives, dads, kids is a big deal don't you? especially if we could have taken this a little more seriously and saved people's lives.

NOTE: ***I am not convinced yet that 10 times higher has been validated and I think that sounds really high to me - I guess we will see.

Once again Chuck, you made your point and I acknowledge and commend your effort into contributing to a meaningful discussion with data driven facts. That is not meant to be sarcastic, I am sincere when I say that.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by EZM

Thank you Chuck.

The articles you posted there precisely underpin and support your point and lend credibility to your perspective.

That wasn't so tough was it ......

Ok - so what was the point here? aren't you in the camp that says this is no big deal? 2.2 million deaths sounds like a big deal to me.

On the other hand, if you are saying the early information was inaccurate and invalidated - you are right. I agree. BUT if left unchecked, I think we all agree it will get worse.

so ....... Based on this 1% infected and some people say it's closer to, say, 10% (10 times higher for arguments sake) and the US has 130,000 deaths already ....

well .......... 10% x 10 times more people*** to get 100% = 1.3 million

am I right?

I'd say 1.3 million people, wives, dads, kids is a big deal don't you? especially if we could have taken this a little more seriously and saved people's lives.

NOTE: ***I am not convinced yet that 10 times higher has been validated and I think that sounds really high to me - I guess we will see.

Once again Chuck, you made your point and I acknowledge and commend your effort into contributing to a meaningful discussion with data driven facts. That is not meant to be sarcastic, I am sincere when I say that.

So you are saying that because we can assume a current 10 fold increase in infection rate than what is being reported that we can also assume a current 10 fold increase in unreported death rate as well?

And just to be clear. I posted links on here about this already. You acknowledged them, and then it must have been forgotten.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by raab

I agree completely, protect the vulnerable, and let the rest go. I don’t think hospital capacity will be an issue. They can set up field hospitals relatively quickly and administer IV and O2 in those.

I'm not sure you've thought that through. Take for example schools. As the current argument of "is it airborne or droplet", what do you do if you put kids back into schools? How do you protect the family of children that bring it home after getting infected by another child? How about the teacher? If it is really airborne then there will definitely be teachers getting infected from children (think about the outbreaks in packing plants ). It seems forcing giving teachers the option of teaching in a classroom or losing their jobs puts them into a pretty great legal position if they get sick.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by Scott h

I'm not sure you've thought that through. Take for example schools. As the current argument of "is it airborne or droplet", what do you do if you put kids back into schools? How do you protect the family of children that bring it home after getting infected by another child? How about the teacher? If it is really airborne then there will definitely be teachers getting infected from children. It seems forcing giving teachers the option of teaching in a classroom or losing their jobs puts them into a pretty great legal position if they get sick.

You can play "what if, what if, what if" until the end of time on this one. There is no perfect solution just lesser of two evils. Yup people are gonna pass it on, people are gonna get sick, people are gonna die. This is life. This happens to many species of animals on the planet. The 2.2M fatalities predicted in the US is 0.7% of the population. Lets accept the future loss and carry on.

[270person]

Originally Posted by chuck

The irony here is palpable.

Stick to drive by questions chuck.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by 270person

Stick to drive by questions chuck.

Do you have something to add here?

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by sns2

If they shut down schools again in the fall, please let it be for October and November. I'll be going hunting!!!

Might as well in do it in September...the spot I go open in September .

[EZM]

Originally Posted by chuck

So you are saying that because we can assume a current 10 fold increase in infection rate than what is being reported that we can also assume a current 10 fold increase in unreported death rate as well?

And just to be clear. I posted links on here about this already. You acknowledged them, and then it must have been forgotten.

Do I specifically remember the 2.2 million number?, NO. But there were many reports, very early on like this one, throwing out all sorts of numbers, some credible and some not so much. I do think, however, based on what we know now, and we learn more the longer this thing goes on, that may be high.

We know, for round figures, roughly 1% of the population has been confirmed to have been infected.

so, Assuming for a minute the "10 times more people have been infected and remain undetected as opposed to diagnosed" is true and that correlates currently to 10% of the entire population of the US (which it does) and we have lost 130,000 lives - then absolutely, the final death rate would approach a figure ten times that.

Keep in mind that some of the current infected patients remain unresolved (they have not died yet and/or recovered) so the 130,000 death toll, based on the current population number is understated by the ratio of resolved versus unsolved cases.

Without trying to take preventative measures like shut downs, masks, etc.. only a significant change to the virus itself, treatments, or a vaccine would change that. None of that OR all of that can happen. So it is absolutely plausible.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by KegRiver

I have backed away from this site. But every once in a while I drop in to see if there is anything worth commenting on.

Most of the time it's not worth the time for me to say anything so I just have a look and go on to better things.

It seems that the Chicken Little's of the world are the loudest noise out there right now.

Recently there has been a lot of noise about wearing masks. That lead me to this thread, and this comment.

First, read what Alberta Health has to say about that. The say and I quote,


All that is directly from Alberta Health. So why are people in Calgary livid about me not wearing a mask every single time I'm out in public, 700 miles from them and their loved ones? What is so hard to understand about those guidlines?

Moreover, any one person's chances of contacting this virus or any other for that matter, on any given day is something in the neighborhood of one in 10,000.
To put that another way, only one in 10,000 people you meet are likely to be infected with this virus on the day you encounter them..

Couple that with the simple fact that 99.9% of those who become infected, will survive and something around 99% of those will experience no complications.
Yet people are happy to get all bent out of shape about the chance that they may eventually become infected.

Yeah you might catch it from someone who was careless, but you could also get it from someone who took all the precautions as happened recently at the Misericordia.
More importantly, if you were to pass the virus on to one of your senior relatives then you weren't taking the recommended precautions were you.

And if you did become infected the chance of you catching it from a friend, co-worker, or family member is thousands of times more likely then of me infecting you or anyone you know.

What I'd like to know is where people get off accusing me, who lives 700 miles away, of risking their relatives lives.

You know how long it will take me to meet 10,000 people in this neighborhood?
I'll tell you, it'll take a year or more. This is NOT Calgary.

So you go ahead and pick what I say apart. Yeah my math is probability off by a fraction of a percentage point, so what! In the real world that makes zero difference.

More and more every day I am thankful for where I live. No one here screaming at their neighbors for being outside or for not wearing a mask.
No one here is telling visitors to stay away. And no one here is rioting.

It may be true that most of the world has gone crazy. But not here, not yet anyway.
So I am happy staying in my little corner of the world while the crazy people try to kill each other over the common flu.

Yeah this is not the common flu, but the numbers show it is not a lot worse.
One has to be honest to do a fair comparison.

The common flu has killed around 2,500,000 over the past five years.
That's two and a half million in JUST five years and it's been killing people for a lot more then just five years..
Fact is the common flu has hit us with not one wave or two but hundreds of successive waves. And people are getting all twisted out of shape over this virus!

Un Be Leave A Bull!

One last thought, first it was protesters wearing suits made to look like female genitalia, As that died down along came the impeachment proceedings, When that failed, low and behold up sprang Covid-19. When it became apparent that authorities were going to let people go back to work up popped the race riots.

Of course that isn't proof of anything. But with circumstantial evidence like that a good prosecutor could get a murder conviction 9 times out of 10

Oh and guess who stands to loose trillions of dollars if Donald Trump succeeds in reviving the US manufacturing sector?

That's right, China, and some very rich folks in the US.

The question is, would they sacrifice the livelihood of millions of people in order to protect their income.

Maybe a better question is what would you be willing to do for a few Billion dollars?

Just something to think about.

The vast majority of Calgarians are easy going. The numbers wearing masks in stores is going up...maybe 30-40%.

While infections remain low in Alberta...there are super spreaders and it is around.

Likely if you have experienced feedback on not wearing a mask when less than 6 feet from others it is because people are trying more and more to be not like the US.

What I read was close personal person transmission can be as high as 70-80%. If both wear masks then that number drops to 1%.

I also suspect if you are getting grief...likely they have no way of knowing where you are from.

Your conspiracy theories are entertaining that gets gullible people all twisted out of shape.

However Covid is real. It does kill. It does fill up hospitals. It is very deadly for seniors and anyone with obesity and diabetes. It is a steep learning curve for the medical world.

When I am at a store now I take my mask. I put it on if the store is crowded. I put it on at checkout to respect the staff. It’s simple and it helps keep the economy going.

Now to pay for our massive Covid debt we need to get our oil and gas industry humming.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

The vast majority of Calgarians are easy going. The numbers wearing masks in stores is going up...maybe 30-40%.

While infections remain low in Alberta...there are super spreaders and it is around.

Likely if you have experienced feedback on not wearing a mask when less than 6 feet from others it is because people are trying more and more to be not like the US.

What I read was close personal person transmission can be as high as 70-80%. If both wear masks then that number drops to 1%.

I also suspect if you are getting grief...likely they have no way of knowing where you are from.

Your conspiracy theories are entertaining that gets gullible people all twisted out of shape.

However Covid is real. It does kill. It does fill up hospitals. It is very deadly for seniors and anyone with obesity and diabetes. It is a steep learning curve for the medical world.

When I am at a store now I take my mask. I put it on if the store is crowded. I put it on at checkout to respect the staff. It’s simple and it helps keep the economy going.

Now to pay for our massive Covid debt we need to get our oil and gas industry humming.

Can you provide some more information on the bolded above? I am interested in how this measurement was taken and under what conditions.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

The vast majority of Calgarians are easy going. The numbers wearing masks in stores is going up...maybe 30-40%.

While infections remain low in Alberta...there are super spreaders and it is around.

Likely if you have experienced feedback on not wearing a mask when less than 6 feet from others it is because people are trying more and more to be not like the US.

What I read was close personal person transmission can be as high as 70-80%. If both wear masks then that number drops to 1%.

I also suspect if you are getting grief...likely they have no way of knowing where you are from.

Your conspiracy theories are entertaining that gets gullible people all twisted out of shape.

However Covid is real. It does kill. It does fill up hospitals. It is very deadly for seniors and anyone with obesity and diabetes. It is a steep learning curve for the medical world.

When I am at a store now I take my mask. I put it on if the store is crowded. I put it on at checkout to respect the staff. It’s simple and it helps keep the economy going.

Now to pay for our massive Covid debt we need to get our oil and gas industry humming.

Do you have a percentage of hospitals that are “filling up”?

[EZM]

Originally Posted by KegRiver

It seems that the Chicken Little's of the world are the loudest noise out there right now.

Couple that with the simple fact that 99.9% of those who become infected, will survive and something around 99% of those will experience no complications.

I understand and accept your perspective - but your post is littered with gross misinformation and false statistics. I really hope your opinion isn't based or influenced on the figures you presented here.

People make better decisions if they have the facts.

Either way, I get what you are laying down here - but I think we are better off saying "let the chips fall where they may" and moving on.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by chuck

Do you have a percentage of hospitals that are “filling up”?

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/he...d-65750a84f1b1

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...zation-records

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by EZM

I understand and accept your perspective - but your post is littered with gross misinformation and false statistics. I really hope your opinion isn't based or influenced on the figures you presented here.

People make better decisions if they have the facts.

Either way, I get what you are laying down here - but I think we are better off saying "let the chips fall where they may" and moving on.

The false 99% claim sounds like something that came out of Trumps mouth......oh wait, it did.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauc...armless-2020-7

[Austin]

Hey, Disney In Florida is reopen

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Austin

Hey, Disney In Florida is reopen

WOW !!! Anyone that goes there deserves to get infected.

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Scott h

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/he...d-65750a84f1b1

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-sta...zation-records

So Scott. What percentage of hospitals, in the US now, are filling up? Or how many hospitals are at capacity with Covid patients?

[Pathfinder76]

Originally Posted by Scott h

The false 99% claim sounds like something that came out of Trumps mouth......oh wait, it did.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fauc...armless-2020-7

No Scott. The director of the CDC did. To be fair, the percentage is closer to 99.5/6 ish.