2018 fire season forecast

[wavemaker]

Place your bets on the 2018 fire season. The old timers say that we are due for a douzy year. I've given up on predicting the season. The ones that I think should be slow are busy and the years that I swear will be busy are slow. Lots of snow still. We will have to see how the melt goes.

[michaelmicallef]

Originally Posted by wavemaker

Place your bets on the 2018 fire season. The old timers say that we are due for a douzy year. I've given up on predicting the season. The ones that I think should be slow are busy and the years that I swear will be busy are slow. Lots of snow still. We will have to see how the melt goes.

I remember springs when the heat just turned on and dry winds came in April and we where fighting fire with snow in the bush in low shaded areas and a
Skim of ice along the edge of the lakes. Things can change fast.

[Delavan]

I'm fairly new to the prairies, and I wasn't too impressed by the fire ban...I'm used to go camping and a campfire is a must...kinda ruined the season last year.

I bought one of those propane-fired "firebowls" to get by, but my preference is burning wood!

Crossing fingers!

[Weedy1]

Originally Posted by Delavan

I'm fairly new to the prairies, and I wasn't too impressed by the fire ban...I'm used to go camping and a campfire is a must...kinda ruined the season last year.

You will get used to it, almost a yearly occurrence at least somewhere in the province. The problem is there is no solution be to prevent the weekend warriors or natural occurrences from burning down the entire province.

I'm betting a hot, dry and smoky summer, again...

[Big Grey Wolf]

Still 3-4 feet of snow in foothills at cabin, have 8 ft snow banks on side of road, do not see it melting until June so shorter fire season.

[Sooner]

The year of the Slave Lake fires, we were in High Prairie picking up a 200 Honda quad for the kids. May 1st weekend. Lots of snow, the melt was on. Water everywhere. 3 ish weeks later Slave Lake was evacuating. I would have bet money the woods would not dry up that fast.

All depends on who gets the rains. Seems you can't count on rainfall covering big swaths of area anymore.

Snow levels seem good wherever we have rode sleds this year.

[JareS]

With our forests in the matchbox-like state that they are, from a century plus of over suppression, its just going to get worse. The dead and diseased forest needs to burn. And it will! Mother nature always gets her way.

[3blade]

Originally Posted by JareS

With our forests in the matchbox-like state that they are, from a century plus of over suppression, its just going to get worse. The dead and diseased forest needs to burn. And it will! Mother nature always gets her way.

This ^

Doesn’t really matter about the weather anymore...unless we have weekly rainfall, it’ll all burn eventually

[bsmitty27]

Yep I herd a news article on radio the other day saying alberta could lose 60% (don't quote me) of boreal forest in next 20 years due to fire and climate change. Sounds about right to me, forests are supposed to burn, its just nice to do it in a controlled manor.
Brad

[Grizzly Adams]

You know what they say Alberta ? Don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes.

Grizz

[Battle Rat]

I like to think of each spring snow storm as one more week without the risk of grass fires.

[Weedy1]

Originally Posted by bsmitty27

Yep I herd a news article on radio the other day saying alberta could lose 60% (don't quote me) of boreal forest in next 20 years due to fire and climate change. Sounds about right to me, forests are supposed to burn, its just nice to do it in a controlled manor.
Brad

https://phys.org/news/2018-03-albert...e-climate.html

I say who cares? It's about time mankind got over themselves and started to realize their finiteness. The world will go on, other species will evolve and become dominant, planets and solar systems will disappear. Yada, yada, yada...

[Sloughsharkjigger]

Spring Wildfires, definitely something that can not and should not be ignored. Recent experiences both in Alberta and other Provincies trend towards a very short period of time between having snow on the ground and extreme wildland fire behavior... in some circumstances it only takes 72hrs... not much time folks.

One of the major contributors to extreme Spring time wildfires is the abundance of “cured” fine fuels and moisture content of other forest fuels. Forest vegetation and standing timber are, for the most part, starving for moisture come March, April & May. Moisture content is very loosely related to snow pack as the roots of forest vegetation are frozen and do not pick-up moisture until the ground thaws. Most of the snow pack simply runs off...

Another, more unpredictable factor, is weather. Forecasting fire weather beyond 3 to 5 days becomes a bit of a educated guess. If one try’s to forecast a small geographical area... say the size of greater Edmonton beyond 3 to 5 days... it’s like going to Vegas. Edmonton may be getting rain but Stoney Plain is getting nothing. That’s all it takes...

A major factor Wildfire Professionals are dealing with now-a-days is the risk of human caused ignition. In the past the highest cause of wildfire was lightning. Now, as the population grows the human risk of ignition has taken precedence. The risk of a “spark” in the wrong place at the wrong time is increasing year by year.

[Ken07AOVette]

after the snow melts and things dry up fire risk will be high until it rains

[Battle Rat]

Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette

after the snow melts and things dry up fire risk will be high until it rains

That's for sure.
Spring grass is a lot easier to ignite the dry fall grass.

[Big Grey Wolf]

Sloughshark, good knowledge in your post. Excellent explanation of fire hazard, yes the article said we will loose 50% of our boreal forest but in next 100 years. Lots of grass for the buffalo that will be coming back.

[DisplacedCaper]

I’ve been in Alberta 17 years now. 14 years as a permanent resident. Seems only the last 5 to 6 years or so I’ve noticed the fires being so extreme and a regular occurrence. Could just be my memory slipping or social media and direct news alerts to my pocket making me more aware. But my first decade here all I remember were hearing about them in BC, and the odd time a haze would come in from fires over there.
For the record, I’m not saying there weren’t big ones here. I just don’t remember hearing many evacuations and fire bans, or forest bans for most of my time here until recently.


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[airbornedeerhunter]

Originally Posted by Delavan

I'm fairly new to the prairies, and I wasn't too impressed by the fire ban...I'm used to go camping and a campfire is a must...kinda ruined the season last year.

I bought one of those propane-fired "firebowls" to get by, but my preference is burning wood!

Crossing fingers!

You weren't impressed with a measure put in place to prevent wildfires and potential for loss of entire communities? I bet the folks who lost everything in Fort McMurray or in Slave Lake would have loved to have had a camping trip ruined instead of their homes being razed.

[Drewski Canuck]

WE ARE STARTING TO LEARN ABOUT THE JET STREAM, THE HARD WAY!!

There is this very high level constant wind in the north and south hemisphere which is the biggest influence on weather. It is a slow "snake" that whips south to north and moves over 6 week periods.

When Slave Lake burned, it was a very heavy snow pack that spring. I was in 4 feet of snow in April. For 3 weeks, there was an Omega loop pushing very hot, very dry air from California, Arizona and New Mexico, north to the Prairies. It blew steady from the south, and was + 30 C.

Farmers loved it.

It was that incredible wind from the south that sent the burning spruce cones and cinders raining down on Slave Lake, even though the fire was over a mile south of the highway. These "fire bombs" hit the asphalt shingle and flat tar roofs of Slave Lake, and with the wind, melted the fuel to burn the buildings from the top down. Drywall could do nothing when the burning roofs collapsed the ceilings adding even more fuel. That was why it was near impossible for fire fighters to fight the building fires. They burned from the inside out.

I was driving home from Calling Lake on 813 and saw the smoke plumes at Slave Lake and Canyon Creek, a distance of about 100 km. Winds were howling that Sunday.

As for the fire season predictions. Watch the Jet Stream, watch for continual hot dry winds from the south, and if this pattern sets up in May before the June rains, hold on.

Drewski

[JohninAB]

Originally Posted by Sloughsharkjigger

Spring Wildfires, definitely something that can not and should not be ignored. Recent experiences both in Alberta and other Provincies trend towards a very short period of time between having snow on the ground and extreme wildland fire behavior... in some circumstances it only takes 72hrs... not much time folks.

One of the major contributors to extreme Spring time wildfires is the abundance of “cured” fine fuels and moisture content of other forest fuels. Forest vegetation and standing timber are, for the most part, starving for moisture come March, April & May. Moisture content is very loosely related to snow pack as the roots of forest vegetation are frozen and do not pick-up moisture until the ground thaws. Most of the snow pack simply runs off...

Another, more unpredictable factor, is weather. Forecasting fire weather beyond 3 to 5 days becomes a bit of a educated guess. If one try’s to forecast a small geographical area... say the size of greater Edmonton beyond 3 to 5 days... it’s like going to Vegas. Edmonton may be getting rain but Stoney Plain is getting nothing. That’s all it takes...

A major factor Wildfire Professionals are dealing with now-a-days is the risk of human caused ignition. In the past the highest cause of wildfire was lightning. Now, as the population grows the human risk of ignition has taken precedence. The risk of a “spark” in the wrong place at the wrong time is increasing year by year.

This^^^

He knows oc what he speaks.