$100 oil

[bdub]

Originally Posted by silver lab

Since Iran is under total lock down with sanctions I don’t think it would have any real effect on the price of oil. But any excuse to jack up the price....

Originally Posted by bat119

How would Trump lighting up Iran affect the price of oil? If it was up to Pompeo the bombers would already be in the air.

Perhaps the US would stay on the sidelines and let Saudi Arabia and Iran fight amongst themselves. It is a different world now that North America is basically energy self sufficient. The States may be less likely to get fully involved. In any case you would think any serious military action involving Saudi Arabia and Iran would cause some panic in oil markets leading to much higher prices. The 1979 oil shock cut global supply (as a proportion of global supply) less than this recent attack, yet caused oil prices to soar, double. Same thing happened during the Iraq/Kuwait conflict, oil prices soared again. That whole region produces such a large proportion of the global energy supply. It has the potential to cause panic in the market if things start to go even more haywire in the area.

https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-to-.../30171884.html

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by bdub

Hey Dean. Any idea what's going on in the repo markets? Is it related to the attack? It's shaking things up a bit and I don't get what's going on or what it really means for other markets.

Here’s a CBC article
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5289518

[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishtank

Here’s a CBC article
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5289518

Thanks Fishtank. The Fed has been intervening in the money markets for the entire week to calm things down. I still don't really understand why or what the implications are. Some sort of panic seems to be happening in that market though.

I don't know if it's somehow related to the Iran thing or not but Trump just put total sanctions on Iran's national bank. This will pretty much dry up all funding in the country. Its going to push them further into a corner, their economy is already crumbling under the previous sanctions imposed. They really have nothing to loose now. This action on their national bank is a big deal imo.

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...?userid=365495

A little information on the Abqaiq oil processing facilities I learned this week. They are the largest oil processing facilities in the world, built back in the 1940's. Capacity is around 7 million bbls and they were running around 4.9 million a day prior to the attacks. They process mainly lite and super lite Arab crude for Asian markets. 5 of 18 stabalizing towers were hit. The plants have a lot of built in redundancy. The plants are heavily fortified and defended but obviously the air defense system didn't do its job for whatever reason. (Perhaps new technology defeated it or just complacency by whoever was manning it?). The attacks were precise. It suffered another attack in 2006 that was successfully defended. The importance of the facility due to it's size is well understood by the world and anyone that wants to disrupt oil markets.

All this will probably throw a bit of a wrench into the Aramco IPO coming up. How the heightened risk will affect the value of the company is probably on a lot of minds right now.

[fishtank]

Originally Posted by bdub

Thanks Fishtank. The Fed has been intervening in the money markets for the entire week to calm things down. I still don't really understand why or what the implications are. Some sort of panic seems to be happening in that market though.

I don't know if it's somehow related to the Iran thing or not but Trump just put total sanctions on Iran's national bank. This will pretty much dry up all funding in the country. Its going to push them further into a corner, their economy is already crumbling under the previous sanctions imposed. They really have nothing to loose now. This action on their national bank is a big deal imo.

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...?userid=365495

A little information on the Abqaiq oil processing facilities I learned this week. They are the largest oil processing facilities in the world, built back in the 1940's. Capacity is around 7 million bbls and they were running around 4.9 million a day prior to the attacks. They process mainly lite and super lite Arab crude for Asian markets. 5 of 18 stabalizing towers were hit. The plants have a lot of built in redundancy. The plants are heavily fortified and defended but obviously the air defense system didn't do its job for whatever reason. (Perhaps new technology defeated it or just complacency by whoever was manning it?). The attacks were precise. It suffered another attack in 2006 that was successfully defended. The importance of the facility due to it's size is well understood by the world and anyone that wants to disrupt oil markets.

All this will probably throw a bit of a wrench into the Aramco IPO coming up. How the heightened risk will affect the value of the company is probably on a lot of minds right now.

with the us election coming up in 2020 , if they start some stuff in the middle east, then the republican will have a advantage in the polls . or maybe some black swan come out of the left field like in canada case a brownface idiot .

[bdub]

Originally Posted by fishtank

with the us election coming up in 2020 , if they start some stuff in the middle east, then the republican will have a advantage in the polls . or maybe some black swan come out of the left field like in canada case a brownface idiot .

You bet, as a rule, if a US president is in office during or approaching wartimes they get re-elected. Historically that has been the case.