$100 oil

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Yes, but nothing reserves wouldn't cover as the article suggests output will only be down for a few days. If it was weeks, or months, I think we'd feel it, but two or three days? For reference, 5% of world consumption is approx. 4.7 million barrels/day, the U.S. strategic oil reserve alone accounts for 630 million barrels.

What are Saudi's reserves of sweet crude right now? By the looks from pics/satellite images, it's gonna be a while before the worlds largest facility is up and running once again. Time will tell I guess, but I'd be fueling up tonight

[Johnny G1]

Just maybe the Atlantic provinces might half to buy some Alberta oil now????

[6.5 shooter]

No worries boys old JT will dump a couple billion into the Saudi banks ...Irvine oil will get a huge pay out..and the trust fund baby will see his profits soar....don't you worry he will be looking out for number 1.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by Dean2

It took years to get Kuwait's oil fields fully back on line.

I get the analogy you're trying to make, but there is a very, very, very big difference between an invading force of 85,000+ personnel utilizing armour, gunships, fighters, bombers, etc., sabotaging/destroying 700+ oil wells, storage tanks, refineries, facilities, etc. during retreat, due to an invading coalition force, resulting in over half the population fleeing the country, in 1991 vs 10 drones firing at two oil facilities in 2019.

[WhiteTailAB]

Yup Iriving is gonna get a sweet payout

[fordtruckin]

Originally Posted by Trochu

I get the analogy you're trying to make, but there is a very, very, very big difference between an invading force of 85,000+ personnel utilizing armour, gunships, fighters, bombers, etc., sabotaging/destroying 700+ oil wells, storage tanks, refineries, facilities, etc. during retreat, due to an invading coalition force, resulting in over half the population fleeing the country, in 1991 vs 10 drones firing at two oil facilities in 2019.

But this is AO afterall so we know better than most....

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Trochu

I get the analogy you're trying to make, but there is a very, very, very big difference between an invading force of 85,000+ personnel utilizing armour, gunships, fighters, bombers, etc., sabotaging/destroying 700+ oil wells, storage tanks, refineries, facilities, etc. during retreat, due to an invading coalition force, resulting in over half the population fleeing the country, in 1991 vs 10 drones firing at two oil facilities in 2019.

Well, six months from now we will know which of us is right. If you are, I will make a bit of money on the oil and drilling stocks I bought, if I am right I will have made a lot of money on those shares. I will try to remember to post an update In 90 days.

[TreeGuy]

Up until recently, I spent the past five years in refineries as a service contractor. If anyone believes these facilities will be back to full operational status within days they’re incredibly ignorant. Lots of Syncrude folks will attest to my statement.

Also, as Caber so insightfully stated, currently planned operational pipeline capacity at this moment would be an absolute advantage worth billions on the global stage. What a pity.

Tree


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by TreeGuy

Up until recently, I spent the past five years in refineries as a service contractor. If anyone believes these facilities will be back to full operational status within days they’re incredibly ignorant. Lots of Syncrude folks will attest to my statement.

Maybe you're quibbling between "full" and "significant" but it doesn't really appear what Syncrude folks attest to, Saudi Aramco is stating "The producer however can restore significant volume of oil production within days, they said." Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but to start calling people ignorant based on never working in SA, never working for Aramco, and not knowing the extent of the damage when every publication I've read on the matter states they will, seems an odd statement to make.

Link

[Big Grey Wolf]

Saudia reserves are down to their lowest level since 2008, around 100 million barrels from 300 million. Their two main pipeline systems were also hit. Hell at Syncrude few years back a carbon steel small piece of pipe was used instead of SS. I believe we were down for almost a year from the little fire. Just cannot wait for Quebec to have $2.00 gas without a Eastern pipeline and BC with $3.00.

[cacty]

Justin Trudeau will cut Saudi Arabia a cheque from his personal bank account if it'll get the facility up and running again.

The man is pure EVIL and do not think for one second that it wont get worse.

The story of a frog on a hotplate comes to mind.

Do the right thing on Oct. 21.

This is Good vs. Evil make no mistake!

[HyperMOA]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Yes, but nothing reserves wouldn't cover as the article suggests output will only be down for a few days. If it was weeks, or months, I think we'd feel it, but two or three days? For reference, 5% of world consumption is approx. 4.7 million barrels/day, the U.S. strategic oil reserve alone accounts for 630 million barrels.

I’m on the fence here. I agree with what you are saying. However, if their largest refinery that is used to feed the the tankers on the coast has been attacked that could have some very big long term effects. Just like how you said Suncor workers that don’t know the extent of the damage can’t make educated guesses; neither can Aramco PR people that haven’t even put the fires out yet. The plant was burning and they were telling us it’ll be repaired in 2 days. They didn’t even know what was damaged yet??!?!?!!! The 2 most dishonest groups I ever see on TV is OPEC, and Aramco. I don’t ever believe a word either says.

With this in mind I am like 50/50 on which way it will go. Knowing how Aramco lies, I think that their outputs are effected for quite awhile. Can other OPEC nations pick up the slack is the question if we see a rise in crude prices though.

[Deer Hunter]

the market has ignored the instability in the Middle East for the last 5 years. Recently the market has been focused on slowing demand as the US Permian supply has been exponential.

Now we are going to pay for the energy we've been taking for granted.

[urban rednek]

Everyone over here is completely ignoring the elephant in the room: this one refinery produces more oil than all of Alberta's producers combined. Why aren't the people from West Coast Environmental Law, the mayors of Whistler, Burnaby, Victoria, Vancouver, Tzeporah Berman and her merry band of useful idiots, and sparkle socks himself racing over there to stop the repair and shut the refinery down in the name of global climate change and reducing CO2 emmissions? Hmmm?

I'd pay good money to give them a one-way ticket and the opportunity to teach the Saudi's a valuable lesson.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Deer Hunter

the market has ignored the instability in the Middle East for the last 5 years. Recently the market has been focused on slowing demand as the US Permian supply has been exponential.

Now we are going to pay for the energy we've been taking for granted.

You are right about that. The Saudis are the largest oil producers, behind the U.S. Kuwait doesn't even produce 3 million barrels a day, and the latest reports show these drone strikes are now thought to impact 10 million barrels a day of production, which is 10% of the worlds oil supply.

Canada has NO strategic oil reserves and the large reserves in the States would be difficult to ship to Canada, even if the U.S. Government who owns those reserves would release any to us, as most of it is stored near the Gulf of Mexico. Quebec and Ontario get 90% of their oil from offshore, relying on uninterrupted supply to meet ongoing needs. All of Canada only produces about 4 million Barrels per day and since most of it is locked in Alberta, 3 million B/D or Saskatchewan, it isn't going to solve short supply in the East.

The short sighted blocking of pipeline expansion, using offshore crude and failure to create a strategic reserves is already a very big problem and it will only get worse with the Saudi interruption and far worse if the attacks spread and impact more oil production. It is not a simple thing for other producers to quickly ramp up oil production to offset this large a disruption.

[Grizzly Adams]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Maybe you're quibbling between "full" and "significant" but it doesn't really appear what Syncrude folks attest to, Saudi Aramco is stating "The producer however can restore significant volume of oil production within days, they said." Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but to start calling people ignorant based on never working in SA, never working for Aramco, and not knowing the extent of the damage when every publication I've read on the matter states they will, seems an odd statement to make.

Link

Their reconstruction standards probably are't like ours. What's a little pollution and work place hazards among some third world, out of country workers ? Some interesting vids out there of their way of doing things

Grizz

[Deezel]

If anything, I hope Eastern Canada sees a major shortage for at least a few months. Might be enough to open some eyes.

Guess that makes me a bad guy too.....

[jstubbs]

Originally Posted by Dean2

You are right about that. The Saudis are the largest oil producers, behind the U.S. Kuwait doesn't even produce 3 million barrels a day, and the latest reports show these drone strikes are now thought to impact 10 million barrels a day of production, which is 10% of the worlds oil supply.

Canada has NO strategic oil reserves and the large reserves in the States would be difficult to ship to Canada, even if the U.S. Government who owns those reserves would release any to us, as most of it is stored near the Gulf of Mexico. Quebec and Ontario get 90% of their oil from offshore, relying on uninterrupted supply to meet ongoing needs. All of Canada only produces about 4 million Barrels per day and since most of it is locked in Alberta, 3 million B/D or Saskatchewan, it isn't going to solve short supply in the East.

The short sighted blocking of pipeline expansion, using offshore crude and failure to create a strategic reserves is already a very big problem and it will only get worse with the Saudi interruption and far worse if the attacks spread and impact more oil production. It is not a simple thing for other producers to quickly ramp up oil production to offset this large a disruption.

Great post. Thanks.

[Bigwoodsman]

Originally Posted by Dean2

You are right about that. The Saudis are the largest oil producers, behind the U.S. Kuwait doesn't even produce 3 million barrels a day, and the latest reports show these drone strikes are now thought to impact 10 million barrels a day of production, which is 10% of the worlds oil supply.

Canada has NO strategic oil reserves and the large reserves in the States would be difficult to ship to Canada, even if the U.S. Government who owns those reserves would release any to us, as most of it is stored near the Gulf of Mexico. Quebec and Ontario get 90% of their oil from offshore, relying on uninterrupted supply to meet ongoing needs. All of Canada only produces about 4 million Barrels per day and since most of it is locked in Alberta, 3 million B/D or Saskatchewan, it isn't going to solve short supply in the East.

The short sighted blocking of pipeline expansion, using offshore crude and failure to create a strategic reserves is already a very big problem and it will only get worse with the Saudi interruption and far worse if the attacks spread and impact more oil production. It is not a simple thing for other producers to quickly ramp up oil production to offset this large a disruption.

X2
And if the price of gasoline were to exceed 2.00/litre in Quebec and east by October 21. Add a cold snap and home hearing fuel hit some where around 3.00/ litre it’d be a very good day for Canada.

BW

[Habfan]

Originally Posted by Big Grey Wolf

Saudia reserves are down to their lowest level since 2008, around 100 million barrels from 300 million. Their two main pipeline systems were also hit. Hell at Syncrude few years back a carbon steel small piece of pipe was used instead of SS. I believe we were down for almost a year from the little fire. Just cannot wait for Quebec to have $2.00 gas without a Eastern pipeline and BC with $3.00.

I think the Saudi reserves are in the 270 Billion barrels, not million.

[Bushrat]

Near as I can tell by Google is 10% or so of our oil imports come from Saudi, easily replaced by buying more from the US who we buy most of it from anyway. Unless someone cuts us off it will be nothing more than an excuse to jack up prices. I wish someone would cut us off, it would become quite clear the absurdity of a country that produces 3 times what it consumes yet is unable ship its own oil to itself.

[Dean2]

Originally Posted by Habfan

I think the Saudi reserves are in the 270 Billion barrels, not million.

That is in the ground, not stored in tanks and accessible.

There is a ton of misinformation around as to where the oil we use in Canada comes from. Here is a good overview article. It isn't 100% accurate but it is a lot closer than so much of the stuff we have been seeing recently. When I said Ont and Quebec get 90% of their oil offshore what I should have said is 90% comes from out of the country. Some is Canadian oil but it all comes in through the states as Enbirge's pipeline goes into the States and then back up into Canada. If Minnesota or Wisconsin are successful in shutting down line 9 like they are trying to do in court challenges, we have a big problem.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/201...c-gets-its-oil

The effect on oil price of the Saudi disruption will be driven by overall world demand versus supply, not on where regional supplies come from.

[Habfan]

Originally Posted by Dean2

That is in the ground, not stored in tanks and accessible.

Thanks for clearing that up, sounded like a bit too much.

[Deezel]

This is from Natural Resources Canada's website;

Source countries of imports of crude oil to Canada in 2017 were: United States, 65%; Saudi Arabia, 18%; Azerbaijan, 5%; Norway, 3%; Nigeria, 2%.

[bdub]

I don't think that the Saudis are going to just let this blow over with Iran, they are going to be forced to hit back this time around. They have already suffered a few attacks on other oil infrastructure, nothing this major however. And Iran has already been screwing around with tanker traffic through the straight of Hormuz this summer. 20 some percent of the worlds oil supply travels through a narrow stretch of water separating the two countries at this pinch point. A war in the region could really affect oil markets by virtually closing the Straight to tanker traffic. Iran has stated today they a ready and prepared for a war. I think that is their game plan, the country is hurting so bad already they don't really care what happens now.

[Bigwoodsman]

Originally Posted by bdub

I don't think that the Saudis are going to just let this blow over with Iran, they are going to be forced to hit back this time around. They have already suffered a few attacks on other oil infrastructure, nothing this major however. And Iran has already been screwing around with tanker traffic through the straight of Hormuz this summer. 20 some percent of the worlds oil supply travels through a narrow stretch of water separating the two countries at this pinch point. A war in the region could really affect oil markets by virtually closing the Straight to tanker traffic. Iran has stated today they a ready and prepared for a war. I think that is their game plan, the country is hurting so bad already they don't really care what happens now.

Send Iran a bakers dozen of daisy cutters. That’ll get the ball rolling!

BW

[CaberTosser]

Originally Posted by Bigwoodsman

Send Iran a bakers dozen of daisy cutters. That’ll get the ball rolling!

BW

Close. Send them some ordnance but make sure its of Soviet/ Chinese or North Korean origin. Maybe not North Korean if you want it to actually work though....

[Trochu]

Would the US get involved if Iran and SA went to war? I'd think Russia would like it, as they are a major exporter and war would certainly drive the price up. China, being a major importer, likely wouldn't like high prices. If the US got involved, I'd think Russia and China would be quick to follow.

Seems Iran's forces are considerably larger but SA has better weapons/equipment in most cases.

Comparison

[urban rednek]

Originally Posted by Bigwoodsman

X2
And if the price of gasoline were to exceed 2.00/litre in Quebec and east by October 21. Add a cold snap and home hearing fuel hit some where around 3.00/ litre it’d be a very good day for Canada.

BW

Those are prices before adding PST, GST, (or HST), and the Carbon Levy. Right?

Here is some information based on 2018 Canadian Daily Oil Production, Export, and Import from CAPP & Stats Canada.
Note: Mb/D - thousand barrels per day
Total Canadian Daily Production- 4,570 Mb/d
Total East Coast Production- 230 Mb/d
Total Western Canada Production- 4,340 Mb/d
Total Canadian Export to U.S.- 3,597 Mb/d
Total Canadian Import was stated as 326 Mb/d
However, Stats Can then went on to claim the following daily Import volumes. Obviously there is a discrepancy in the list, or the stated Daily Import volumes:
378,215 b/d- U.S.
109,281 b/d- Saudi Arabia
32,879 b/d- Azerbaijan
19,788 b/d- Norway
13,946 b/d- Nigeria
9,585 b/d- Algeria
9,161 b/d- U.K.
6,920 b/d- Ivory Coast
6,043 b/d- Columbia
585,818 b/d total import, the majority of which goes to Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.
The fine print stated that only import volumes greater than 5,000 b/d were listed. Link to the CAPP page here:
https://www.capp.ca/canadian-oil-and...transportation

Since 18.6544% of our daily imports come from Saudi Arabia, this could have a major impact to daily operations in Eastern Canada. Supply volatility could be alleviated by the construction of the Energy East Pipeline.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Trochu

Would the US get involved if Iran and SA went to war? I'd think Russia would like it, as they are a major exporter and war would certainly drive the price up. China, being a major importer, likely wouldn't like high prices. If the US got involved, I'd think Russia and China would be quick to follow.

Seems Iran's forces are considerably larger but SA has better weapons/equipment in most cases.

Comparison

From the horses mouth.
“Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!”

Evidence is pointing to the attacks coming from the north out of Iran or Iraq, not south from Yemen. At least that is what they are pushing.