Low fuel prices.....lack of work !

[great white whaler]

The price at the pumps right now is what it should be,,,it would be nice if it was around 60 cent per litre,,,it just go's to show how much we were being over charged at the pumps

[troutbug]

Being in the mechanical side of things, I am actually starting a new job on the 5th. They said they have never laid a person off in 20 years of being in business, they had to cut hours but everyone stayed working. Times like this I am glad I have a variety of skills as it does help like when poop hit the fan in 2008/2009. Hope things dont get to bad for everyone, we all have familys to support

[Selkirk]

Originally Posted by dumoulin

I left the patch 16 years ago. I hated the ups and downs--never knowing if I'll be out of work or not. I got to say when the price of oil was high, I was a tad jealous since my old buddies were making two or three times what I was. In times like these though I'm glad I made the right decision.

Same ^ here, but for me it was about 20 years ago ... and I've never once looked back!

Mac

[Wild&Free]

With oil prices and demand what it is, our dollar is dropping due to less demand for it. this is a good thing for provinces to the far east since a lower dollar value helps Canada's manufacturing and technology sectors. Ont and Que are predicted to have growth of 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, BC is predicted to grow by 1.5% IIRC. Alberta is expected to shrink by less then 1%.

All in all this is a good thing for Canada as a whole in the short term. when prices start to recover end of next year, early 2016 (person prediction based on instinct, flame away)our nation should be in a much better position so long as we do not fall into the trap of being a resource export economy again(aka a banana republic). diversification is the road to strong consistent returns.

[Mb-MBR]

I know of some guys that came back here to deer hunt and thought they would be returning only to find out they were told to sit tight and would be called if needed.

They're still sitting and now they're wondering if they'll even be called back....no doubt it will be felt coast to coast.

[Dan4570]

Im lucky enough to be second in seniority where I work. So If lay offs do happen. There's quite a few guys that go before me.But we've never had Layoffs just lack of raises. Plus I get a good Severance package if I was to ever be laid off.

If O&G goes bust it affects the whole of Alberta from retail to banking to food.

[79ford]

There has been 11 billion in 2015 capex cuts announced. Thats 11 000 jobs if it takes a million dollars to create a job. That is capex cut vs 2014 spending so that will mean jobs dissapearing.

The hacking and chewing will go after upstream drilling and exploration activities as well as new project construction. That will in turn kill the housing boom probably. Most of the new jobs since 2009 have been upstream activities and construction which fueled another housing boom.

When people start talking about 150$ oil i always shake my head, usually a good time to batton down the hatch lol. High oil prices destroy the global economy

[zabbo]

Originally Posted by great white whaler

i'm loving the price of gasoline right now,,thinging about buying a camper,,,i fix cars doznt hurt me at all.....it's a good think for the average joe,,,,,like all good thing it won't last

So, if nobody is working, who will be able to pay you to fix their car???
Just saying.

[32-40win]

It may take another month or two to really start seeing what is going to happen altogether. First thing will be the downturn of purchasing by the various sectors of the oilpatch, seen a bit of that over the last month, but there is still a lot of stuff that was committed to already , that has to finish up. As those items get done, the lack of, or cancellation of projects/ sales will start to show all over the place. There will still be niches where it will stay busy for a while, maintenance still has to be done, people still have to have their supplies moved. It will be after the first quarter, before it really becomes apparent, as to how bad it'll get. How long it will last is the big question.

[omega50]

Risk and reward sums up the oil patch to me if you work in that industry.

Not overly interested in hearing how someone has it sooo bad that they may have to sell off a toy.
Oil is the mainstay of the economy but every Canadian shoulders the burdens and rewards of a good economy.
People in the patch reap much greater financial rewards than average Joe Canadian and should try not to be too bitter towards those that are reaping the marginal short term benefits of lower fuel prices.

Soon enough it will go the other way.
Look at it a chance for personal growth-Get over yourselves
When things are good in the patch it is always Me Me Me
A downturn and suddenly it is We We We
Suddenly everyone is either French or has worms

[Ricktye]

I don't think a lot have come to accept that the financial genius's have forecast this is going to be a ~5 year thing of reduced prices and market readjustment. It's not going to go away tomorrow or next year it appears. Couple that with the study recently that indicated houses are over valued presently by 30% and we are going to have to all adjust somewhat, some more than others no doubt. Some that have employment not directly in the patch or the industries not directly supporting oil may do ok, others that have large mortgages and loans for toys, and rely on oil field work maybe not so well..... None of us have the crystal ball.

Originally Posted by great white whaler

i'm loving the price of gasoline right now,,thinging about buying a camper,,,i fix cars doznt hurt me at all.....it's a good think for the average joe,,,,,like all good thing it won't last

[avb3]

This will flush out those who had a truck and a welding ticket and brashly told all that would listen that if it didn't pay $100/hr they would not get out of bed... in their mobile home in a trailer park, and credit cards maxed.

I know a guy just like that. Sucks to be him now, but he always knew best. Probably will now hear how the system beats up on the little guy. There were way too many like that attitude, and my sympathy just does not exist for them.

There are also real people with real families that will hurt, but my guess is the smart ones did not live like a boom lasts a lifetime.

[BPM]

Originally Posted by omega50

Risk and reward sums up the oil patch to me if you work in that industry.

Not overly interested in hearing how someone has it sooo bad that they may have to sell off a toy.
Oil is the mainstay of the economy but every Canadian shoulders the burdens and rewards of a good economy.
People in the patch reap much greater financial rewards than average Joe Canadian and should try not to be too bitter towards those that are reaping the marginal short term benefits of lower fuel prices.

Soon enough it will go the other way.
Look at it a chance for personal growth-Get over yourselves
When things are good in the patch it is always Me Me Me
A downturn and suddenly it is We We We
Suddenly everyone is either French or has worms

Amen. If you failed to plan then you planned to fail.

You know the volitility, should have put money away to tide you over. It's like a Casino. Dont bet what you cant afford to lose.

I have little sympathy.

I chose job security over chance. At this moment I'm being rewarded. In time the chance will be lucrative. I wont gamble my retirement.

I live modestly. I dont need lots of toys.

[Sundancefisher]

Oil is at $53 WTI

At this level layoffs in the oil patch is inevitable until services companies reevaluate and adjust prices way, way down.

Wages will fall but work will then come back.

If prices not inure falling many companies will just need to retract activity and wait out the storm.

On a positive note...stocks will crash and saving some money to invest will be lucrative. Just need to hit it right.

[lakerfisher]

One thing I've learned after 30 years in this industry,, the drilling side to be specific is no one can ever tell what's coming or how long it's going to be. It's the nature of the beast. I know one thing, the days of cheap oil are over, a lot of the reserves companies and countries talk about are over estimated. We just really don't know. A lot of countries are in trouble over this slump and it won't be long production from OPEC will be cut back and things will stabilize for a while again.

Heres a report from a differant perspective, written a couple months ago but still you can draw some interesting points from it. Things aren't always as the mainstream media reports because they get their info from the governments and the big companies who won't tell the truth caus et may hurt their stock price.

Alberta will weather this one better than most, our industry in itself is diverse as are the service companies in them. Yes there will be layoffs, there probly should be, there is lots of junk out there collecting a check just cause. I made it though the down turns of 80's, 90's and 08 and now this one. In the end I have still managed an above average lifestyle through out it all. To me there is no better life, I have worked and traveled to and in every corner of this province and in a few of the others, met thousands of interesting people, freedom of expression is not oppressed out here it's the Alberta oil patch still the best place to be.
Maybe this year we will get out to the lakes and campsites more,, big deal it's about time. Enjoy the slow down a bit, take a breather for a while, life to short to stress out about the small stuff.

Some reading from non mainstream media..

http://www.outsiderclub.com/report/2...rn-to-150/1238

[dantonsen]

Woman says her place of work which supplies production hardware has put a freeze on hiring.

I watched some talking heads on tv today talking about corpoarate capex. Oil and gas capex used to be 25% or so percent of spending but the last few years it is up around 40-60%. Everyone put alot of eggs in the oil basket this time around.

I watch rig counts and drilling activity is at a 20 year low going into the new year and sits below 2009 levels right now by almost 100 rigs.

PTI is closing camps in ftmac too and hacking 30% of its workforce.

Russia has entered recession, europe is in recession, japan is in recession, chinas growth is in decline, lots of countries currencies are getting hammered killing their oil buying power.

The problem is global. Low oil prices signal bad things.

[wildside2014]

Originally Posted by RavYak

Do you own a house? If so I would be hoping gas prices go back up. Paying a couple bucks more for gas is going to save you a lot more money then what you will lose on your house value if gas goes/stays low...

Sure housing prices are going to dip, but it wont stay down. They will climb again. Ill take low gas prices to lower my cost of day to day life and hang onto my long term investments that is housing all day long. If you treat housing as an actual long term investment and plan to pay the units off this shouldn't bother you.

[wildside2014]

Originally Posted by avb3

This will flush out those who had a truck and a welding ticket and brashly told all that would listen that if it didn't pay $100/hr they would not get out of bed... in their mobile home in a trailer park, and credit cards maxed.

I know a guy just like that. Sucks to be him now, but he always knew best. Probably will now hear how the system beats up on the little guy. There were way too many like that attitude, and my sympathy just does not exist for them.

There are also real people with real families that will hurt, but my guess is the smart ones did not live like a boom lasts a lifetime.

Or the young guys with no post secondary education rolling in the oil patch that have leveraged themselves on the never never plans so they can show their buddies all the toys they 'own'. Hurts a comin combined with a reality check for the 'kids'.

[coastalhunter]

Only time I've been glad to be a tin basher, lots of repair work in the patch

[mad mountain mike]

Originally Posted by avb3

This will flush out those who had a truck and a welding ticket and brashly told all that would listen that if it didn't pay $100/hr they would not get out of bed... in their mobile home in a trailer park, and credit cards maxed.

That's funny in a sad way because those are usually the first guys to start phoning contractors offering to slash their rates and start the cut throat ball a rolling.
After more than 25 years in this racket I've seen a lot of these clowns come and go, can't stick **** to a blanket but feel that the patch can't get by without them.

[lakerfisher]

Originally Posted by mad mountain mike

That's funny in a sad way because those are usually the first guys to start phoning contractors offering to slash their rates and start the cut throat ball a rolling.
After more than 25 years in this racket I've seen a lot of these clowns come and go, can't stick **** to a blanket but feel that the patch can't get by without them.

Not only them boys lots of services like that out there. Again,, got a little black book full of names for times like this..

[mad mountain mike]

I'd also like to add that pushing the panic button might be a little premature. Certainly things are going to slow for awhile, but if you think back to 2008 the price of oil slumped to $32.00 a barrel and then rebounded fairly quickly to the mid $80.00's.

[dantonsen]

Originally Posted by mad mountain mike

I'd also like to add that pushing the panic button might be a little premature. Certainly things are going to slow for awhile, but if you think back to 2008 the price of oil slumped to $32.00 a barrel and then rebounded fairly quickly to the mid $80.00's.

Ya but in 2008 opec slashed oil production by 2.7 million barrels per day to help shore up prices. This time around they are keeping status quo or putting the pedal to the floor on production and slashing prices to customers to maintain market share.

The dynamic this time around is completely different... saudi arabia wants the expensive producers to cut production this time, they produce oil for 7$ per barrel. So however long it takes for the usa and canada to cut 2 million barrels per day of production is about how long oil prices will be in the gutter. Last time i looked every company in north america was pumping every barrel they can as fast as they can.

I think 300 000 new barrels per day came on the market in north america alone in the last month.

There is a whole slough of production coming on in the next few years. All the big projects started when oil hit 100$ 7 years ago will be busting onto the scene right away. I think if you include world production the last month has seen an extra million new barrels.... 300000 from kurdistan, 150k from angola, 100-300k out of southern iraq, russian production ramped up to new highs, brazil brought on 90kbpd.

All this while demand forecasts by iea have been slashed by five times in the last 6 months

[mad mountain mike]

^^^^^ way to rain on my parade, I was trying to keep a positive attitude.^^^

[crunchiespg]

Originally Posted by lakerfisher

One thing I've learned after 30 years in this industry,, the drilling side to be specific is no one can ever tell what's coming or how long it's going to be. It's the nature of the beast. I know one thing, the days of cheap oil are over, a lot of the reserves companies and countries talk about are over estimated. We just really don't know. A lot of countries are in trouble over this slump and it won't be long production from OPEC will be cut back and things will stabilize for a while again.

Heres a report from a differant perspective, written a couple months ago but still you can draw some interesting points from it. Things aren't always as the mainstream media reports because they get their info from the governments and the big companies who won't tell the truth caus et may hurt their stock price.

Alberta will weather this one better than most, our industry in itself is diverse as are the service companies in them. Yes there will be layoffs, there probly should be, there is lots of junk out there collecting a check just cause. I made it though the down turns of 80's, 90's and 08 and now this one. In the end I have still managed an above average lifestyle through out it all. To me there is no better life, I have worked and traveled to and in every corner of this province and in a few of the others, met thousands of interesting people, freedom of expression is not oppressed out here it's the Alberta oil patch still the best place to be.
Maybe this year we will get out to the lakes and campsites more,, big deal it's about time. Enjoy the slow down a bit, take a breather for a while, life to short to stress out about the small stuff.

Some reading from non mainstream media..

http://www.outsiderclub.com/report/2...rn-to-150/1238

I'd counter that and say home is the best place to be.
I'd gladly take lower pay to spend every day with my family. And that is exactly what I have done.
Being there to take my daughter to and from school every day is worth more than any salary.

I don't want to look back and see the times I missed by working too much.

[dantonsen]

You also got to remember most of albertas 'oil' is actually tar/bitumin which is currently at 36$ per barrel. Considering alot of that tar has to be loaded on trains to get to market the real price is 24$ after the producer pays shipping.

Out of the two million barrels of bitumin produced every day i dont know much that will make any money at 35$ or 24$ after shipping.

Natural gas has plummeted 33% in the last few months too.

[lakerfisher]

Originally Posted by crunchiespg

I'd counter that and say home is the best place to be.
I'd gladly take lower pay to spend every day with my family. And that is exactly what I have done.
Being there to take my daughter to and from school every day is worth more than any salary.

I don't want to look back and see the times I missed by working too much.

A person still has lots of time home and with this job I have found the times I am home are made into quality times with the kids and wife. I have averaged over the years probably 225 days a year away. So that leaves roughy 140 days a year at home with no interuptions just us and the kids with the financial ability to do lots of playing.. Yah it's tough at times but it's a life. Certainly not for everyone it's not always easy but that just it,, it's not easy. Created independence and strenght in our family, my boys were men at a young age looking after their mom, and the wife had to be strong many times for her boys. My boys were required to have the skills of most men at a young age in order to keep things going at home it's made them better men for it. Not always an easy thing for kids especialy with us we have always lived a ways away from stuff a bit back in the woods and do it yourself type people. It's worked well for us but that's us. It's also torn a lot of families apart, but in most cases those homes were probly doomed anyways. For us it's been great,, it's just who we are as a family,, we're an Alberta oilfield family,, no life like it.

[whitetail Junkie]

Originally Posted by dande jack

while it hurts the oil industry, many people now have money to spend in other places such as retail. It puts a lot of spendable cash in the hands of shoppers that wasn't there when prices were high

x2.....Espicially for lower income people and families across Canada.This big cut in Fuel prices is a Huge relief and financial savings for some individuals.

[Sundancefisher]

Oil down again today. Will WTI hit into the $40-50 range soon?

[elkdump]

Is this a good time to buy a New $98,000 dollar Chipped and Jacked up 4x4 diesel pickup with NO down payment and finance it over 7 years ???? lmao