The Great American Ammunition Conspiracy

[270WIN]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Look at chart 1, over 80,000 expired PALs not renewed, about 20-25% of all PALs that expire every year.

https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/2020-c...irearms-report

If we assume that a significant percentage of those still own guns that is really quite amazing. Thanks for the info, Elk.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270WIN

If we assume that a significant percentage of those still own guns that is really quite amazing. Thanks for the info, Elk.

And then there are the people that have never held a PAL that still possess firearms, so the reality, is that with over 80,000 people letting their PAL expire every year, plus the people that have never had a PAL, the number of valid PALs is not an accurate indicator of the number of firearms owners on Canada. There could easily be 4-5 million people with firearms in Canada, and some of them without a PAL, are likely acquiring ammunition. And with so many of the recently prohibited firearms not registered, the government doesn't know who owns them, or how many there actually are. So with so many unknowns, how can the government ever hope to get people to turn all of those prohibited firearms in, let alone stop the illegal sales of firearms and ammunition?

[270WIN]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

And then there are the people that have never held a PAL that still possess firearms, so the reality, is that with over 80,000 people letting their PAL expire every year, plus the people that have never had a PAL, the number of valid PALs is not an accurate indicator of the number of firearms owners on Canada. And with so many of the recently prohibited firearms not registered, the government doesn't know who owns them, or how many there actually are. So with so many unknowns, how can the government ever hope to get people to turn all of those prohibited firearms in?

From what we hear, it didn't work very well in New Zealand, did it? But as long as the voting public thinks the government is doing something to make them safe, that is all that matters. Right? Back to my comment about IQs, maybe there should be a minimum for voters. And MPs.
Hope I'm not being too political here. Just couldn't help myself.

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by 270WIN

Maybe there should be a minimum IQ required to obtain a PAL in addition to the other requirements.

Same goes for those that refused the registry?

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

So if JT is a factor, it isn't just an American thing, and many Americans and Canadians, are buying for the same reason, to buy while it is available. As for buying for personal protection, that isn't just an American thing either, with such a broken legal system, that doesn't protect the citizens, many Canadians are also concerned about protecting their families. And then of course , we have such a corrupt leader, that is taking away our rights and freedoms, that some Canadians want to be armed , to protect themselves against our government.



And of course Google searches will lead you to a great deal of material that isn't proven, and that isn't true, because it is merely a search engine.

I gave you JT as an answer because I thought thats what you wanted to hear. He's a problem for "existing" firearms owners more than NEW, but obviously not much of one compared to Biden for Americans. Same with the pandemic. Same with racial unrest. If he, the pandemic, racial unrest, and left right political differences were major influencers we'd have seen a big spike in newly licensed, eligible to buy and own firearms individuals in Canada, just like has happened in the U.S. and that just hasn't been the case.

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

I gave you JT as an answer because I thought thats what you wanted to hear. He's a problem for "existing" firearms owners more than NEW, but obviously not much of one compared to Biden for Americans. Same with the pandemic. Same with racial unrest. If he, the pandemic, racial unrest, and left right political differences were major influencers we'd have seen a big spike in newly licensed, eligible to buy and own firearms individuals in Canada, just like has happened in the U.S. and that just hasn't been the case.

How was the big spike in newly licensed Canadians supposed to happen when there were no courses for the PAL, due to covid for much of 2020? Without the course, you can't get a license. Which I why I posted that the 2021 and 2022 data will mean much more than the 2020 data.
So while we did experience greatly increased sales in Canada, most of the buying was done by people that already held a PAL.

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

So where are you finding the number of first time PALs published per year? I can find the 2020 numbers, but no 2021 numbers, and I don't see it broken down to New PALs vs Renewals in the 2018/19 reports.. And the report even mentions that the numbers were down in 2020 due to no courses being offered due to covid, and delays in processing PALs due to covid. So with courses ramping up and delays due to covid no longer the issue, the 2021, and 2022 numbers will be the important numbers to watch.

https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/2020-c...irearms-report

As for shortages, many Americans are buying for the same reasons that we are, because if you don't buy in volume, you will run out and there won't be any more to buy. Just look at the USA businesses, all of the out of stock items, and you will see that it can be even more difficult to find many supplies there.

You were looking right at it prior but I guess it didn't fit the mandate. Let's make it simple and just run with total licensed and eligible to purchase firearms individuals in Canada from inception of the program through 2021ok? For you to suggest a massive spike in new PAL's to have been issued and those individuals putting a major dent in inventories there would have had to be an equally massive amount of individuals letting them expire. Why? Because the total numbers of individuals with PAL's in Canada didn't fluctuate very much at all 2019- 2021.

Whats the difference in numbers of PAL holders between 2004 and 2021 really? 300,00? Nada or close between 2019 and 2021 proving there was no blind panic rush to run out and get a PAL before or after pandemic restrictions were in place.

Canada is 10% of U.S. consumption of pretty much everything. Maybe less in plastic boobs and MAGA hats. If they had a spike in 2020 of 7.5 million new licenses registered shouldn't we be in the area of 750,000 in 2020-2021 all things considered? Think that number would be noticeable in the chart below? 500,000? 250,000? Actually turned out to be a pretty ho hum couple of years. So can we then conclude that first time PAL registrants were not a big reason for gun and ammunition shortages in Canada like they were in the U.S.?

Your argument that there were zero PAL courses in 2020 to skew numbers doesn't really hold water for one reason. We should have seen a huge upward blip in 2021 to catch up no? Rather than going up very marginally over 2019. Did all those lined up and chomping at the bit to get licensed in 2020 reconsider, take their ball and go home? Or maybe as you are suggesting, there were 500,000 non renewals in 2020 which quickly got replaced in 2021 with 500,000 newbies. If thats the case then I'll concede.



Are individuals without a PAL responsible for wiping out store shelves of firearms and ammunition? If they were they were awful creative about how they did it I'd think.

I'll hold at much lower import numbers ending up in Canada being the reason for our shortages. Not hysteria and panic buying to prep for the zombie apocalypse civil war in the States. Many of us that watched what was happening down there could predict what was likely to happen here and acted upon it, but all we really accomplished was depleting an already depleting inventory. The U.S. manufacturers took care of their own market which is to be expected and we get the leftovers.

I talk to the retailers as I'm sure you do. They freely admit they are getting shorted in most areas and what they do manage to secure sells out quickly. Not because Canadians have gone nuts over getting licensed but because there just isn't as much coming in TO sell. If there was ample inventory in stores it'd be pretty much business as usual. Nowhere near the fear and panic buying as occurred down south.

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

How was the big spike in newly licensed Canadians supposed to happen when there were no courses for the PAL, due to covid for much of 2020? Without the course, you can't get a license. Which I why I posted that the 2021 and 2022 data will mean much more than the 2020 data.
So while we did experience greatly increased sales in Canada, most of the buying was done by people that already held a PAL.

2021 data is available. No big spike. Marginally over the previous high in 2019, but really, numbers haven't gone thru the roof.

2,236,983. Men and women with a firearm licence authorized by the RCMP at 31 Dec. 2021.

Pretty static for the last 5 years no?

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

You were looking right at it prior but I guess it didn't fit the mandate. Let's make it simple and just run with total licensed and eligible to purchase firearms individuals in Canada from inception of the program through 2021ok? For you to suggest a massive spike in new PAL's to have been issued and those individuals putting a major dent in inventories there would have had to be an equally massive amount of individuals letting them expire. Why? Because the total numbers of individuals with PAL's in Canada didn't fluctuate very much at all 2019- 2021.

Whats the difference in numbers of PAL holders between 2004 and 2021 really? 300,00? Nada or close between 2019 and 2021 proving there was no blind panic rush to run out and get a PAL before or after pandemic restrictions were in place.

Canada is 10% of U.S. consumption of pretty much everything. Maybe less in plastic boobs and MAGA hats. If they had a spike in 2020 of 7.5 million new licenses registered shouldn't we be in the area of 750,000 in 2020-2021 all things considered? Think that number would be noticeable in the chart below? 500,000? 250,000? Actually turned out to be a pretty ho hum couple of years. So can we then conclude that first time PAL registrants were not a big reason for gun and ammunition shortages in Canada like they were in the U.S.?

Your argument that there were zero PAL courses in 2020 to skew numbers doesn't really hold water for one reason. We should have seen a huge upward blip in 2021 to catch up no? Rather than going up very marginally over 2019. Did all those lined up and chomping at the bit to get licensed in 2020 reconsider, take their ball and go home? Or maybe as you are suggesting, there were 500,000 non renewals in 2020 which quickly got replaced in 2021 with 500,000 newbies. If thats the case then I'll concede.



Are individuals without a PAL responsible for wiping out store shelves of firearms and ammunition? If they were they were awful creative about how they did it I'd think.

I'll hold at much lower import numbers ending up in Canada being the reason for our shortages. Not hysteria and panic buying to prep for the zombie apocalypse civil war in the States. Many of us that watched what was happening down there could predict what was likely to happen here and acted upon it, but all we really accomplished was depleting an already depleting inventory. The U.S. manufacturers took care of their own market which is to be expected and we get the leftovers.

I talk to the retailers as I'm sure you do. They freely admit they are getting shorted in most areas and what they do manage to secure sells out quickly. Not because Canadians have gone nuts over getting licensed but because there just isn't as much coming in TO sell. If there was ample inventory in stores it'd be pretty much business as usual. Nowhere near the fear and panic buying as occurred down south.

Except the production didn't all go to civilians in the USA, military/law enforcement contracts ate up a lot of it.

https://www.globenewswire.com/en/new...tners-com.html

North America dominated the small caliber ammunition market in 2020, owing to increasing use of ammunition by armed forces and growing number of drug cartels in Central America. Moreover, the North America small caliber ammunition market is driven by the strong demand from the US. The US Department of Defense’s long-term competitive strategy for developing technologies and new concepts of warfare would further propel the market growth in the coming years.

As well, some components are not being sold to private citizens, they are being reserved for factory loads, primers being an example, vendors in Canada, and the USA have been told not to expect primers from Federal and other producers until late 2023 at the earliest.

And the manufacturers have allocated their limited components to higher profit products, so no target shotshells or cheap bulk ammunition from some manufacturers.

And what does reach Canada, is being hoarded by some people, talking to the owner of a local shop, he has had multiple customers purchasing $20,000 orders of ammunition and reloading components. Some asked to buy even more, but some stores have started limiting sales, so they have enough to sell to more of their customers.

As much as you would like to portray all American firearms owners as lunatics, that are hoarding mass amounts for the apocalypse, the truth is that the majority are just buying what they can, just like Canadians. Yes some have hoarded large amounts of ammunition, but so have some Canadians.
And if you doubt that we have our share of lunatics, spend some time at the range. and you will likely see some members in tactical vests, with multiple magazines, doing magazine dumps into zombie targets.I have seen several of them, at multiple ranges.

[fishnguy]

I think you guys solved it, whatever it is

I think this really sucks though:

Us



And them



That’s the “conspiracy”, lol.

[270person]

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

Except the production didn't all go to civilians in the USA, military/law enforcement contracts ate up a lot of it.

https://www.globenewswire.com/en/new...tners-com.html



As well, some components are not being sold to private citizens, they are being reserved for factory loads, primers being an example, vendors in Canada, and the USA have been told not to expect primers from Federal and other producers until late 2023 at the earliest.

And the manufacturers have allocated their limited components to higher profit products, so no target shotshells or cheap bulk ammunition from some manufacturers.

And what does reach Canada, is being hoarded by some people, talking to the owner of a local shop, he has had multiple customers purchasing $20,000 orders of ammunition and reloading components. Some asked to buy even more, but some stores have started limiting sales, so they have enough to sell to more of their customers.

As much as you would like to portray all American firearms owners as lunatics, that are hoarding mass amounts for the apocalypse, the truth is that the majority are just buying what they can, just like Canadians. Yes some have hoarded large amounts of ammunition, but so have some Canadians.
And if you doubt that we have our share of lunatics, spend some time at the range. and you will likely see some members in tactical vests, with multiple magazines, doing magazine dumps into zombie targets.I have seen several of them, at multiple ranges.

You keep moving the goalposts and completely ignoring the fact that there was a massive spike in NEW firearms licences in the U.S. in 2020. To the tune of 7.5 million. Why is that? What are the underlieing reasons? I'll take things that cause Americans to freak and Canadians to barely bat an eye for $200 Alex.

I guess none of those 7.5M newly licensed owners bought firearms and ammunition which played a major role in the shortages. That's not speculation by the way and is easy to source.

And with that.....

[elkhunter11]

Originally Posted by 270person

You keep moving the goalposts and completely ignoring the fact that there was a massive spike in NEW firearms licences in the U.S. in 2020. To the tune of 7.5 million. Why is that? What are the underlieing reasons? I'll take things that cause Americans to freak and Canadians to barely bat an eye for $200 Alex.

I guess none of those 7.5M newly licensed owners bought firearms and ammunition which played a major role in the shortages. That's not speculation by the way and is easy to source.

And with that.....

In 2022, there are only 14 states out of 50 that even require licenses to purchase firearms, so using licenses as an indication of firearms sales, isn't necessarily accurate.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/st...-laws-by-state

As for the actual numbers of new firearms purchasers in the USA, in 2020, this source shows a much smaller number , less than half of 7.5 million.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-rise-pandemic

A third data study, compiled by Northeastern University and the Harvard Injury Control Research Center and seen by the New York Times, shows that 6.5% of US adults, or 17 million people, have purchased guns in the past year, up from 5.3% in 2019.

Of those, almost one-fifth who bought guns last year were first-time gun owners

So almost one-fifth of 17 million, amounts to over 3 million new firearms owners. So 7.5 million new licenses in 14 states, only translated to just over 3 million new owners in all 50 states.

And here is something interesting, the data refutes what some people are implying, about the new sales being due a bunch of lunatics preparing for some kind of war.

Of those, almost one-fifth who bought guns last year were first-time gun owners of whom half were women, a fifth were Black and a fifth were Hispanic, challenging the stereotype of white male gun owners building personal arsenals.

[saskbooknut]

The US measure of new firearms purchasers comes from the mandatory background check, required for all firearms purchases through legitimate business.
The uncounted purchase through gun shows and private sales would add to this number.