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  #121  
Old 11-15-2020, 11:04 AM
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last positive I heard of around here was a 20s something that had been at a party . Judging by the crowds at the malls Id say lots of people are going out . I was there to work by the way . Construction sites seem to be pretty lax . Glad to be off for a while .
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  #122  
Old 11-15-2020, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by MountainTi View Post
Do you believe that if everyone "did everything right", this will just go away? Seems like you do.

It isn't going away. It's going to run it's course. People are going to get sick. Unfortunately some will succumb to it. Vaccine's may become available one day, but I wouldn't count on it any time soon
Are you saying just let caution fly to the wind and have at it, see who lives?

People are bored/tired/angry at the restrictions, so they are fighting it.

I do not know the answer, but I would say yes there are people trying frantically to find a cure, there are others that are waiting for it to make money.

I see 2 sides, people that are scared and want to protect, and others that for whatever reason are not.

I don't know who is right, but I say with conviction that some time needs to be given so a vaccine can be tested and proven.

I have seen people completely change their ideas of the disease, after it has killed someone close to them or put them in a hospital for months.

I think we are going to see a lot more of this very shortly, they always said that hot weather kills the bacteria but in cold weather it thrives.

The weather is cold.
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  #123  
Old 11-15-2020, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Scott h View Post
The lower humidity associated with the colder weather causes exhaled droplets to dry out quickly, and then remain suspended in the air longer (airborne vs droplet transmission). It's well known and expected that this would happen with the colder, dryer temps.
Add to that the virus lives exponentially longer the colder it is.
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  #124  
Old 11-15-2020, 11:43 AM
KinAlberta KinAlberta is offline
 
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Not unexpected:

Quote:

Restaurants, gyms, hotels are high-risk areas for spreading the coronavirus, model suggests - The Washington Post

ďRestaurants, gyms and coffee shops rank high among locations where the coronavirus is most likely to spread outside the home. Thatís according to a newly published report based on data from millions of Americans, tracked by their phones as they went about daily life during the pandemicís first wave.ď

...
ď Certain venues ó places of worship, full-service restaurants and gyms ó disproportionately contributed to infections. In Chicago, for instance, 10 percent of sites accounted for 85 percent of predicted infections.

The study discerned another pattern: Lower-income people, ...Ē

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s-hotels-risk/


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  #125  
Old 11-15-2020, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Bushrat View Post
Add to that the virus lives exponentially longer the colder it is.

That can't be right. I was sure I heard one well known expert say it would vanish in the hot weather.
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  #126  
Old 11-15-2020, 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Bushrat View Post
Add to that the virus lives exponentially longer the colder it is.

I'm positive I heard one well known expert say it would vanish in the hot weather.
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  #127  
Old 11-15-2020, 11:53 AM
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The virus is out of the bag, all these preventative measures are just dragging it out. I think it is far more widespread than they admit and there are exponentially more asymptomatic cases out there than they are willing to admit.

How many of us have/had it and didn't/don't know it. Bizzare that they are reporting that there have been zero flue cases in Alberta this year. I do not believe it, makes no sense that covid is the only flue strain out there to the exclusion of all others.
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  #128  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:00 PM
KinAlberta KinAlberta is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck View Post
I was thinking the exact same thing, but didn't have the energy to count the number of threads. Same people yelling the same things at each other across the barb wire....broken record. Nobody is going to change anyone's mind, either way.

But it's like my dogs. The highlight of their day is to dash to the fence and exchange fierce barks with the neighbor's dog, who reciprocate. A dozen times a day. Every day.
Itís either this or clean up the basement and take the garbage out.
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  #129  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by KegRiver View Post
They've started testing people with no symptoms a lot more.

I know six people who tested positive, all just days after being close to someone else who had tested positive, none of which ever developed symptoms. Not even those who triggered the initial testing.

What I wonder about is how do they determine a test is a false positive?
When there is only the initial test how is it possible to determine whether it was a true positive or a false positive without further testing?

No one I know were required to have any additional tests done. If they aren't testing for false positives couldn't it be possible that there could be a very high percentage of false positives?

Don't get me wrong, I know what the answer to that is. They'll say it's based on models.
Well if that works so well why were we taught that the only way to get accurate results in our industry was to do actual tests.

Modeling was only used to plan the actual test rates. We still had to do real tests, which then had to be confirmed by a percentage of examinations of our tests. Basically a test of our test.

But that was only for forestry work, not peoples health.
I guess peoples health requires less scrutiny.
They have done both laboratory tests and other studies to verify PCR tests have low false positive rates. As previously mentioned exact false positive rates are not known because it varies based on prevalence. This is also how they have determined that other tests like rapid antigen tests and serology testing have more false positives (you can actually find rates for these other tests because they use PCR to verify).

They don't test for false positives in the general public because it is a waste of time, resources and funding in an already stressed industry. The simplest cheapest method to negate false positives is to have those individuals quarantine for 10 days.

Instead of trying to verify individuals they perform audits of the processes ensuring that they are being done properly and minimizing risks of cross contamination, ensuring nurses are sterlizing/changing PPE between patients etc. If the process is done properly then false positives with PCR are minimal.
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  #130  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MountainTi View Post
Do you believe that if everyone "did everything right", this will just go away? Seems like you do.

It isn't going away. It's going to run it's course. People are going to get sick. Unfortunately some will succumb to it. Vaccine's may become available one day, but I wouldn't count on it any time soon
That is the million dollar question - and In fairness, "everyone doing everything right" is not very specific but the reality is this ....

A Virus can only spread from an active infected person (or surface that person recently contaminated with live virus) to another host (another person) who becomes infected with the virus.

If this chain is broken - the virus would stop.

That's without scientific dispute.

The type of Mitigation measures will vary in effectiveness ....

If you wear a mask, wash your hands and maintain social distancing it will drastically and dramatically reduce the spread of the virus.

If you do not socialize in large groups, or go in public place unnecessarily exposing yourself, it will also dramatically reduce the spread of the virus.

If ALL of the people isolate for a period equal to and over the infectious period (say 14 says) the virus will DISAPEAR.It will die off and have no host to infect and continue living.

The problem is you can't effectively isolate ALL.

But doesn't it make sense, if things spiral out of control, to lock it down for another 10-14 days and get back down to controlled infection rates...and get as close to that "ALL" as possible and knock it down?

That's how I see it.

I would have no issue if the government told us all - we are locking down Dec 1 - Dec 14 and it's compulsory.
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  #131  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:19 PM
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Can't find the article right now but was 4 test done on the same person results 2 positive and 2 negative

Heres something to read for those that are so inclined to do so...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7457918/
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  #132  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:27 PM
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Here is something else to read

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/08/...montreal-baby/
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  #133  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:28 PM
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The PCR test detects the presence of a virus, could be past or present
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  #134  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by hawk-i View Post
Can't find the article right now but was 4 test done on the same person results 2 positive and 2 negative

Heres something to read for those that are so inclined to do so...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7457918/
I read the same article . The problem is you cannot believe anything you read anymore . Fake news articles are made to look like legit stories . Unsure if it is true or not .
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  #135  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by wannabe View Post
I do think they're are major problems with this. The simple one is that the virus in some people still takes 14 days to present itself.

So yah, you don't have to isolate for 14 days but there is still very little you can actually do in those 14 days.
Correction.

Symptoms may not become obvious until after 14 days. The virus is present it just may be in lower numbers, localized or your body might have been fighting it off well enough. Viral load plays a significant effect, people that only come into contact with a small amount of the virus can fight it off better. This is also a similar reason to why we see more young healthy doctors and nurses die during these outbreaks as they are more prone to receiving high viral loads before their bodies have a chance to react.

Tests immediately after landing and then a further 6-7 days later are going to catch almost all cases and if the people follow the restrictions laid out (quarantining until first results and then semi isolation until 2nd results) then the chances of spreading the virus are very small.

I think this is an excellent program. The one downside to it is that it is being used as encouragement for people to travel for personal reasons (vacations etc) instead of just for people that say need to travel for medical or work reasons. I am perfectly fine with the program being used for leisure when cases are low but if cases really start blowing up then more travel restrictions may be required.
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  #136  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by EZM View Post
That is the million dollar question - and In fairness, "everyone doing everything right" is not very specific but the reality is this ....

A Virus can only spread from an active infected person (or surface that person recently contaminated with live virus) to another host (another person) who becomes infected with the virus.

If this chain is broken - the virus would stop.

That's without scientific dispute.

The type of Mitigation measures will vary in effectiveness ....

If you wear a mask, wash your hands and maintain social distancing it will drastically and dramatically reduce the spread of the virus.

If you do not socialize in large groups, or go in public place unnecessarily exposing yourself, it will also dramatically reduce the spread of the virus.

If ALL of the people isolate for a period equal to and over the infectious period (say 14 says) the virus will DISAPEAR.It will die off and have no host to infect and continue living.

The problem is you can't effectively isolate ALL.

But doesn't it make sense, if things spiral out of control, to lock it down for another 10-14 days and get back down to controlled infection rates...and get as close to that "ALL" as possible and knock it down?

That's how I see it.

I would have no issue if the government told us all - we are locking down Dec 1 - Dec 14 and it's compulsory.
And the key is ALL. In other words, if nobody enters or leaves a community, no aircraft, no trains, no cars, no trucks, which means no supplies, no groceries, no fuel, and nobody leaves their homes, essential workers live at work, and don't leave the premises, then the spread would be contained. But of course that isn't at all practical.
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  #137  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:43 PM
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urcayuse urcayuse is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EZM View Post
That is the million dollar question - and In fairness, "everyone doing everything right" is not very specific but the reality is this ....

A Virus can only spread from an active infected person (or surface that person recently contaminated with live virus) to another host (another person) who becomes infected with the virus.

If this chain is broken - the virus would stop.

That's without scientific dispute.

The type of Mitigation measures will vary in effectiveness ....

If you wear a mask, wash your hands and maintain social distancing it will drastically and dramatically reduce the spread of the virus.

If you do not socialize in large groups, or go in public place unnecessarily exposing yourself, it will also dramatically reduce the spread of the virus.

If ALL of the people isolate for a period equal to and over the infectious period (say 14 says) the virus will DISAPEAR.It will die off and have no host to infect and continue living.

The problem is you can't effectively isolate ALL.

But doesn't it make sense, if things spiral out of control, to lock it down for another 10-14 days and get back down to controlled infection rates...and get as close to that "ALL" as possible and knock it down?

That's how I see it.

I would have no issue if the government told us all - we are locking down Dec 1 - Dec 14 and it's compulsory.
A full two week lock down will accomplish nothing more than dragging this on another two weeks! Have a bloody look this isnít small pox or the Black Death. It will not disappear in that time frame.
Itís just a damn flu that happens to be spiking now in the normal flu season which by the doesnít seem to exist anymore.
These cotton masks are about as effective as teaching people to take cover under tables and what not during a nuclear attack. If itís really that dangerous why are the N95 masks not compulsory?
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  #138  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:52 PM
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Another piece of interesting information after talking with some school board friends.

If 1 kid in a class years positive, the whole class is counted as positive even if they test negative. So. That means the numbers are even less reliable. But it also explains why the number have exploded.

Not to mention this goes hand in hand with ahs's guidelines. They say it isn't mandatory to get tested if you are in close contact with a positive. Only isolating is mandatory. Lots of **** not adding up.
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  #139  
Old 11-15-2020, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by hawk-i View Post
Can't find the article right now but was 4 test done on the same person results 2 positive and 2 negative

Heres something to read for those that are so inclined to do so...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7457918/
You are probably thinking about Elon Musk. Those were rapid antigen tests not PCR tests and failing 2 of 4 means he is most likely positive.

He had PCR tests done but has not posted the results (either doesn't have them yet or doesn't feel like posting them). He did say that he most likely has covid.

That report you posted is good although probably too complicated for most to fully understand (I don't understand some of it myself). It explains the difficulties in trying to determine test accuracy and points out some of the flaws that were present in different studies that have been completed. It also notes that the main reason for some of these flaws is the short timeline and rapid need to develop these new tests and studies. Rather than drawing conclusions estimating test effectiveness this report is making recommendations on how to perform a more robust study in the future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawk-i View Post
The PCR test detects the presence of a virus, could be past or present
If the virus RNA is detected it is usually an active infection. It is possible to have only a bit of dead virus present causing a false positive (or probably better stated as a previous positive) but my understanding is this is most likely rare. You get tested if symptomatic so if you are both symptomatic and test positive the chance it is picking up a previous positive is unlikely.

The only test that tests for past infection is serology testing which tests your body for antibodies, not the presence of the virus.
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  #140  
Old 11-15-2020, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by JB_AOL View Post
Another piece of interesting information after talking with some school board friends.

If 1 kid in a class years positive, the whole class is counted as positive even if they test negative. So. That means the numbers are even less reliable. But it also explains why the number have exploded.

Not to mention this goes hand in hand with ahs's guidelines. They say it isn't mandatory to get tested if you are in close contact with a positive. Only isolating is mandatory. Lots of **** not adding up.
This is not true.

The school board may be treating them as all positive but the only confirmed cases being counted are ones with positive tests. Alberta is not including clinical diagnosis cases let alone random people that were not tested.
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  #141  
Old 11-15-2020, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by urcayuse View Post
A full two week lock down will accomplish nothing more than dragging this on another two weeks! Have a bloody look this isnít small pox or the Black Death. It will not disappear in that time frame.
Itís just a damn flu that happens to be spiking now in the normal flu season which by the doesnít seem to exist anymore.
These cotton masks are about as effective as teaching people to take cover under tables and what not during a nuclear attack. If itís really that dangerous why are the N95 masks not compulsory?
2 weeks lockdown would help that is why our healthcare professionals are recommending it. The biggest problem with spread is that most people spread it before they end up developing severe enough symptoms that they feel warrants testing/isolating.

If everyone goes into isolation for 2 weeks and everyone that gets sick during that time is tested then the majority of infected individuals would be found before transmitting to others and a number of them(including asymptomatic people) would also recover.

Cloth masks and surgical masks are as effective as N95 masks at containing droplets/moist breath etc. The extra aerosal capability of N95 masks is not warranted and there are not enough N95 masks available to be able to make them compulsory even if they were that much more effective. There are many more important uses of N95 masks that require the availability of their supply.
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  #142  
Old 11-15-2020, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by elkhunter11 View Post
And the key is ALL. In other words, if nobody enters or leaves a community, no aircraft, no trains, no cars, no trucks, which means no supplies, no groceries, no fuel, and nobody leaves their homes, essential workers live at work, and don't leave the premises, then the spread would be contained. But of course that isn't at all practical.
I wonder how high and fast the death rate would climb if this were to happen??

Can you imagine...Some who feel a lock down is a good idea...tend not to think to far into the future.....

(Just to be clear this last comment is in no way directed at Elk 11)
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  #143  
Old 11-15-2020, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by RavYak View Post
This is not true.

The school board may be treating them as all positive but the only confirmed cases being counted are ones with positive tests. Alberta is not including clinical diagnosis cases let alone random people that were not tested.
I wish that was the case.

Explain about the people that weren't tested, yet got phone calls saying their positive?

There's only one solution to this. Protect the high risk and continue with life (masks/etc).

The reality of it is, they are trying to delay the inevitable. The hospitals will be over run at some point. Why wait. Rip the bandaid off. Vaccines are years out from hitting the public and even farther out, is the mass public trusting the vaccines. Which it seems to be the elderly are the only ones who are jumping in line, as any long terms effects won't matter to them.
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  #144  
Old 11-15-2020, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by JB_AOL View Post
I wish that was the case.

Explain about the people that weren't tested, yet got phone calls saying their positive?

There's only one solution to this. Protect the high risk and continue with life (masks/etc).

The reality of it is, they are trying to delay the inevitable. The hospitals will be over run at some point. Why wait. Rip the bandaid off. Vaccines are years out from hitting the public and even farther out, is the mass public trusting the vaccines. Which it seems to be the elderly are the only ones who are jumping in line, as any long terms effects won't matter to them.
I am 99% sure you are wrong, post some evidence instead of hearsay...

Here is mine.

There are 37,312 confirmed cases in AB. You can download details for every single one of these cases at the following link.

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...statistics.htm

If you do a pivot table of the data you can see how many people of each age group test positive on a given day. If they were counting entire classes the numbers for school aged kids would be in the multiple hundreds and some days probably pushing a thousand.

Instead the bell curve of data makes sense and indicates 5-9 and 10-19 year olds are being tested and confirmed in the same manner that 20+ year olds are.
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  #145  
Old 11-15-2020, 02:18 PM
KinAlberta KinAlberta is offline
 
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Originally Posted by JB_AOL View Post
I wish that was the case.

...

The reality of it is, they are trying to delay the inevitable. The hospitals will be over run at some point. Why wait. Rip the bandaid off. Vaccines are years out from hitting the public and even farther out, is the mass public trusting the vaccines. Which it seems to be the elderly are the only ones who are jumping in line, as any long terms effects won't matter to them.

Interesting opinions.

ďThe hospitals will be over run at some point. Why wait. Rip the bandaid off. Ē

Short-term pain for what gain?

Are people more worried about any long term effects of a vaccine than any long term effects of the virus?
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  #146  
Old 11-15-2020, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck View Post
I was thinking the exact same thing, but didn't have the energy to count the number of threads. Same people yelling the same things at each other across the barb wire....broken record. Nobody is going to change anyone's mind, either way.

But it's like my dogs. The highlight of their day is to dash to the fence and exchange fierce barks with the neighbor's dog, who reciprocate. A dozen times a day. Every day.
Funny stuff ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Dodger.
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  #147  
Old 11-15-2020, 05:56 PM
JB_AOL JB_AOL is offline
 
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Originally Posted by RavYak View Post
I am 99% sure you are wrong, post some evidence instead of hearsay...

Here is mine.

There are 37,312 confirmed cases in AB. You can download details for every single one of these cases at the following link.

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...statistics.htm

If you do a pivot table of the data you can see how many people of each age group test positive on a given day. If they were counting entire classes the numbers for school aged kids would be in the multiple hundreds and some days probably pushing a thousand.

Instead the bell curve of data makes sense and indicates 5-9 and 10-19 year olds are being tested and confirmed in the same manner that 20+ year olds are.
Fair enough. I'm only relaying what I was told by people actually involved in the reporting to ahs.. stats/etc can easily be manipulated specifically when people are getting told their positive when they haven'tent been tested.

At any rate. Doesn't matter.
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  #148  
Old 11-15-2020, 06:10 PM
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Let's finally admit it, it's out of control and the best we can do is ride it out.

Grizz
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  #149  
Old 11-15-2020, 06:43 PM
JB_AOL JB_AOL is offline
 
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Originally Posted by KinAlberta View Post
Interesting opinions.

ďThe hospitals will be over run at some point. Why wait. Rip the bandaid off. Ē

Short-term pain for what gain?

Are people more worried about any long term effects of a vaccine than any long term effects of the virus?
Isn't that the point of a vaccine? Mass immunity? Why sit around and wait for a vaccine when this could just let it run its course.

Yes.. there are lots of people concerned about that. Considering how small scale the "tests" are at this point and "unexplained illnesses", deaths, etc are the result of taking the vaccine. Now obviously that's why these tests occur, but do you honestly think they know (or care) about the long term effects are? Most of these vaccines are 2 parts that require a second shot 6 months later. Well, we are just over 6 months into this, how have they determined this already? What are the long term effects of it?

Long term effects of covid? So far none. Within 3-6months no long term effects are prevalent, and most are completely recovered.
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  #150  
Old 11-15-2020, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by JB_AOL View Post
Fair enough. I'm only relaying what I was told by people actually involved in the reporting to ahs.. stats/etc can easily be manipulated specifically when people are getting told their positive when they haven'tent been tested.

At any rate. Doesn't matter.
Schools dont report cases to AHS...

AHS reports cases to schools...
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