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  #61  
Old 11-14-2020, 10:35 PM
jednastka jednastka is offline
 
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Originally Posted by elkhunter11 View Post
Those of us that wore proper respirators and SCBA in the workplace, at least have some basic idea of proper protection, but unfortunately, many people assume that a cloth mask will protect them.

This is one of the greatest fallacies of all. Work PPE is designed to protect you. Mak wearing is primarily designed to protect others, because there are so many asymptomatic cases. The data says between 40% and 60% of positive cases may be asymptomatic. This is very difficult to prove because most people get tested when they feel unwell. The only data that is available is from massive testing exercises in complete communities.


Vic
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  #62  
Old 11-14-2020, 10:40 PM
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My experience is that most, but not all, people wear masks inpublic when they are told they have to. The masks on the floor at Superstore and Sobeys are simply indications of those that do not care.


From my own children, the issue is that many of their friends have very, very large cohorts (think adult hockey teams for example) that believe social distancing is a joke, get infected, and on the weekend go visit grandma. My son-in-law has yet to play a game this year, but his team goes on without him. Now five of his teammates have tested positive, and three have become very ill. The worst one was sick for three weeks and lost 26 pounds, but survived. His attitude has now changed.



Vic
It’s hitting some young adults very hard. Update on our 24 year old friend.

Still coughing blood.
Fever, cough, lack of taste, shortness of breath, chest pain.

Still at home. No room at hospital as he is not yet sick enough. Fortunately left his apartment. Scary...only ones able to look after him is his parents. Fingers crossed for them.
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  #63  
Old 11-14-2020, 10:49 PM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is online now
 
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Originally Posted by jednastka View Post
This is one of the greatest fallacies of all. Work PPE is designed to protect you. Mak wearing is primarily designed to protect others, because there are so many asymptomatic cases. The data says between 40% and 60% of positive cases may be asymptomatic. This is very difficult to prove because most people get tested when they feel unwell. The only data that is available is from massive testing exercises in complete communities.


Vic
And how does you wearing a mask protect others, when you touch your mask, then touch shelves, counters and merchandise in stores, or doors, switches glasses etc in a home? If you maintain social distancing, a mask is pretty much useless. A mask does not replace social distancing.
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  #64  
Old 11-14-2020, 10:52 PM
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Has anyone actually changed their viewpoint on this?
I suggest watching the blood pressure levels and checking out the deer rut. She’s almost in full gear here
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  #65  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:11 PM
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Kenney and company are attacking the easy targets bars restaurants minor hockey etc. No one really knows what the hell to do, so they just do something and we know how government works. No one is shutting down airlines closing our borders to airlines or non Essential travel or goods. Why because of the vote factor.
Shut the frighten airports to domestic and international travel. But they’d rather cancel minor hockey and restrict small business hours.

Every where I goo ok people are wearing masks or shields. People are social distancing. Abiding by the rules.

Government can and is restricting the locals while inviting people from outside with open arms.

BW
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  #66  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Glion View Post
https://www.manilatimes.net/2020/10/...itives/777791/

https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/05/...-from-perfect/

Second article states in perfect environments they are nearly 100% but in real world 66-80%, that being said not sure if that is the exact same test AB is using
From that article.

Quote:
In the real world, testing conditions and process are far from perfect, and accuracy suffers. Researchers still don’t know what the real-world false positive rate is, but clinical sensitivity of RT-PCR tests ranges from 66% to 80%. That means nearly one in three infected people who are tested will receive false negative results.
You have to read this paragraph closely and also understand what clinical sensitivity means.

Sensitivity means the ability for a test to diagnose a sick individual. That is why they say sensitivity of 66-80% means one in three infected people will receive false NEGATIVE results. In other words one in three infected people will not be diagnosed even though they are sick.

The reason for the difference is that in perfect environments the swab is made to be infected. In real life the swab has to make contact with the infected area on the patient which is clearly more difficult.

The first article isn't the best source but what he is effectively saying is that in the example given there are a high number of false positives compared to positives because the prevalence of infection is low.

If you test 1000 people, none of which are infected, and 1 test comes back positive you have a false positive rate of 0.1% but since there were no true positives your false positive to true positive rate is 100%.

It is like if you tested everyone in Canada for Ebola. No one has it but there are 37.5 million tests that could potentially come back as false positives. You only want to test if you have a suspicion that the infection is present.

You also need to take into account the repercussions of a false positive or false negative result.

In the case of covid a false positive is an annoyance. You think you have it, you quarantine for a couple weeks and then retest. A false negative, which as we just saw is far more prevalent, is actually worse because then a person may think hey it isn't covid and I can go back to work. That is why when you go get tested (I have been tested once) they tell you that you need to quarantine till you get results. If the results are positive you need to continue quarantining. If the results are negative and you don't have symptoms you can go back about normal life. If the results are negative but you still have possible symptoms you are told to still quarantine.

In some other cases it can be a bit different. For example I will use HIV. A false positive for HIV would be bad, here take this medication for the rest of your life thinking eventually you might develop AIDS... That is why doctors do not perform tests unless they have clinical symptoms that match what they are testing for.
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  #67  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:32 PM
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No one is shutting down airlines closing our borders to airlines or non Essential travel or goods.
BW
They've gone one better then that, now they are trying greatly shortened isolation periods for international travelers.

https://www.alberta.ca/international...t-project.aspx

On the link they don't say how short the isolation times will be, only this;
Quote:
Eligible international travellers returning to Alberta may be able to participate in a pilot program that is safely exploring reduced quarantine periods.
On CBC this afternoon they said as little as three days for members of the film and entertainment industry.

So, while numbers of positive tests are skyrocketing they are making exceptions for the film industry.
And we are supposed to trust them to give us the truth ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Could this sort of thng be why many are choosing to not wear masks?
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  #68  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:43 PM
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Originally Posted by KinAlberta View Post
As is, I’d guess, the undetected positives compared to the number being tested.

When I hear that they recorded 1,000 new cases I automatically think that there could be four, five thousand more undetected out there.
So, with a 4x or 5x multiple, and approx. 37k confirmed cases, that makes (37kx4, lets be conservative) 148k total cases in Alberta. Now, assuming they have the death rates fairly accurate and there aren't people dying in the street unaccounted for, that I've heard of anyway, that provides a survival rate of 99.7% (147,597/148k).
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  #69  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:44 PM
calgarychef calgarychef is offline
 
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Originally Posted by RavYak View Post
From that article.



You have to read this paragraph closely and also understand what clinical sensitivity means.

Sensitivity means the ability for a test to diagnose a sick individual. That is why they say sensitivity of 66-80% means one in three infected people will receive false NEGATIVE results. In other words one in three infected people will not be diagnosed even though they are sick.

The reason for the difference is that in perfect environments the swab is made to be infected. In real life the swab has to make contact with the infected area on the patient which is clearly more difficult.

The first article isn't the best source but what he is effectively saying is that in the example given there are a high number of false positives compared to positives because the prevalence of infection is low.

If you test 1000 people, none of which are infected, and 1 test comes back positive you have a false positive rate of 0.1% but since there were no true positives your false positive to true positive rate is 100%.

It is like if you tested everyone in Canada for Ebola. No one has it but there are 37.5 million tests that could potentially come back as false positives. You only want to test if you have a suspicion that the infection is present.

You also need to take into account the repercussions of a false positive or false negative result.

In the case of covid a false positive is an annoyance. You think you have it, you quarantine for a couple weeks and then retest. A false negative, which as we just saw is far more prevalent, is actually worse because then a person may think hey it isn't covid and I can go back to work. That is why when you go get tested (I have been tested once) they tell you that you need to quarantine till you get results. If the results are positive you need to continue quarantining. If the results are negative and you don't have symptoms you can go back about normal life. If the results are negative but you still have possible symptoms you are told to still quarantine.

In some other cases it can be a bit different. For example I will use HIV. A false positive for HIV would be bad, here take this medication for the rest of your life thinking eventually you might develop AIDS... That is why doctors do not perform tests unless they have clinical symptoms that match what they are testing for.
Very good explanation, thanks.
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  #70  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:48 PM
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The pilot program requires you to quarantine until you receive your first negative test result (2-3 days) and then you are still supposed to stay in semi isolation and get tested a 2nd time 6-7 days later.

This pilot is great for companies that have people that need to travel for work. We have a guy that has to go down to a couple of the states in December. Without this program he would have to come home and quarantine over Christmas break, well in theory he could pull the essential worker card although after being in the US I would want to be tested before visiting family.
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  #71  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:50 PM
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Originally Posted by RavYak View Post
From that article.



You have to read this paragraph closely and also understand what clinical sensitivity means.

Sensitivity means the ability for a test to diagnose a sick individual. That is why they say sensitivity of 66-80% means one in three infected people will receive false NEGATIVE results. In other words one in three infected people will not be diagnosed even though they are sick.

The reason for the difference is that in perfect environments the swab is made to be infected. In real life the swab has to make contact with the infected area on the patient which is clearly more difficult.

The first article isn't the best source but what he is effectively saying is that in the example given there are a high number of false positives compared to positives because the prevalence of infection is low.

If you test 1000 people, none of which are infected, and 1 test comes back positive you have a false positive rate of 0.1% but since there were no true positives your false positive to true positive rate is 100%.

It is like if you tested everyone in Canada for Ebola. No one has it but there are 37.5 million tests that could potentially come back as false positives. You only want to test if you have a suspicion that the infection is present.

You also need to take into account the repercussions of a false positive or false negative result.

In the case of covid a false positive is an annoyance. You think you have it, you quarantine for a couple weeks and then retest. A false negative, which as we just saw is far more prevalent, is actually worse because then a person may think hey it isn't covid and I can go back to work. That is why when you go get tested (I have been tested once) they tell you that you need to quarantine till you get results. If the results are positive you need to continue quarantining. If the results are negative and you don't have symptoms you can go back about normal life. If the results are negative but you still have possible symptoms you are told to still quarantine.

In some other cases it can be a bit different. For example I will use HIV. A false positive for HIV would be bad, here take this medication for the rest of your life thinking eventually you might develop AIDS... That is why doctors do not perform tests unless they have clinical symptoms that match what they are testing for.
Excellent post.

It explains why three weeks ago they were talking about false positives and now not a word.

They've started testing people with no symptoms a lot more.

I know six people who tested positive, all just days after being close to someone else who had tested positive, none of which ever developed symptoms. Not even those who triggered the initial testing.

What I wonder about is how do they determine a test is a false positive?
When there is only the initial test how is it possible to determine whether it was a true positive or a false positive without further testing?

No one I know were required to have any additional tests done. If they aren't testing for false positives couldn't it be possible that there could be a very high percentage of false positives?

Don't get me wrong, I know what the answer to that is. They'll say it's based on models.
Well if that works so well why were we taught that the only way to get accurate results in our industry was to do actual tests.

Modeling was only used to plan the actual test rates. We still had to do real tests, which then had to be confirmed by a percentage of examinations of our tests. Basically a test of our test.

But that was only for forestry work, not peoples health.
I guess peoples health requires less scrutiny.
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  #72  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:56 PM
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The pilot program requires you to quarantine until you receive your first negative test result (2-3 days) and then you are still supposed to stay in semi isolation and get tested a 2nd time 6-7 days later.

This pilot is great for companies that have people that need to travel for work. We have a guy that has to go down to a couple of the states in December. Without this program he would have to come home and quarantine over Christmas break, well in theory he could pull the essential worker card although after being in the US I would want to be tested before visiting family.
So what exactly is semi isolation? Is that like semi birth control?

Sex without the pill but she takes a baby aspirin before you start?

And all while the numbers are skyrocketing ! ! !

Seems some essential workers are more essential then others, based on tax contributions.

Yeah that makes sense. Big business isn't likely to spread a virus are they?

No, only a few hillbillies drinking beer can do that.
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  #73  
Old 11-14-2020, 11:58 PM
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I think we have about a dozen cases around here, up dramatically from last week. Doesn't seem to be any logic to the sudden upsurge, other than it was brought in from outside. So many unknows, now they are even questioning the validity of tests.

Grizz
Same here in interior, rural bc. All quiet, even through the summer with lots of tourists, and now we are seeing some local break outs that are getting worse.
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  #74  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:08 AM
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Same here in interior, rural bc. All quiet, even through the summer with lots of tourists, and now we are seeing some local break outs that are getting worse.
Yeah but protesters and tourists don't carry Covid, only teens partying at home can do that.
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  #75  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:14 AM
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IMO it all comes down to enforcement.

if its the law to wear a mask and limit your contacts to 15 so be it..
its like having speeding limits with no tickets, eventually nobody will listen.

start enforcing the law and ticketing the ones not complying
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  #76  
Old 11-15-2020, 12:28 AM
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This is a great risk assessment on aerosolisation. If you read it, one part discusses relative humidity, which explains why dry/warm climates or AC'ed buildings get it moving about in the soup of others breath we breathe. I've noticed some clinics/hospitals are blocking off outflow grills that are floor level, so as not to draw droplets past us.

As for doing what's asked of us, just do it as all my appointments with various hospital based doctors have been bumped to 2021, and I can't get back to work until they give me the green light. Another member is also waiting for critical surgery,, whatever you can do to not take up a hospital space, the quicker some of us can get tended to and back to work.

https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...111/risa.13500
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  #77  
Old 11-15-2020, 01:52 AM
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Originally Posted by KegRiver View Post
They've gone one better then that, now they are trying greatly shortened isolation periods for international travelers.

https://www.alberta.ca/international...t-project.aspx

On the link they don't say how short the isolation times will be, only this;


On CBC this afternoon they said as little as three days for members of the film and entertainment industry.

So, while numbers of positive tests are skyrocketing they are making exceptions for the film industry.
And we are supposed to trust them to give us the truth ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Could this sort of thng be why many are choosing to not wear masks?
I wouldn't believe anything the cbc actually says.
But if you do read the link it does give you all the info you need.
It's very informative.

Test at coutts or Calgary. Quarantine until results come back(about 48hrs) If negative you can leave quarantine with strict limitations, daily check-ins, keep notes of all people you come in contact with, limit or no contact with certain people and places, etc.
On day 6 or 7 you take another test, if negative keep following guidelines... laid out in the link.

I do think they're are major problems with this. The simple one is that the virus in some people still takes 14 days to present itself.

So yah, you don't have to isolate for 14 days but there is still very little you can actually do in those 14 days.
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  #78  
Old 11-15-2020, 02:33 AM
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So yah, you don't have to isolate for 14 days but there is still very little you can actually do in those 14 days.
Except spread the virus if you are a super carrier.

By the time you test positive it could have spread to and killed my great great grandmother and all of her siblings.

Come on man, you are trying to cover for a bad idea, why?

If this virus can spread into nursing homes and hospitals with all the precautions they take do you really think making a list of contacts after entering a new country will do anything to stop this virus.

Let me ask you this, if it's such a good idea, why wasn't it done months ago, for nursing home staff and hospital workers?
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  #79  
Old 11-15-2020, 07:37 AM
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Yeah but protesters and tourists don't carry Covid, only teens partying at home can do that.
Exactly! The authorities make up new regulations for the citizens, then they select where to enforce , and where to turn a blind eye. Thousands of protestors including the PM gather in close proximity to protest, and no tickets, yet some parent that takes his children to an abandoned park receive $1000+ fine. The borders are closed to the average citizen, but illegal immigrants and temporary foreign workers are allowed into the country. Two teens are fined for being in the same vehicle, yet they allow dozens of airline passengers to sit even closer for hours.
If you are going to make restrictions, make them effective restrictions, and enforce them for everyone. But unfortunately politics are even more important than protecting people.
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Old 11-15-2020, 07:47 AM
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Exactly! The authorities make up new regulations for the citizens, then they select where to enforce , and where to turn a blind eye. Thousands of protestors including the PM gather in close proximity to protest, and no tickets, yet some parent that takes his children to an abandoned park receive $1000+ fine. The borders are closed to the average citizen, but illegal immigrants and temporary foreign workers are allowed into the country. Two teens are fined for being in the same vehicle, yet they allow dozens of airline passengers to sit even closer for hours.
If you are going to make restrictions, make them effective restrictions, and enforce them for everyone. But unfortunately politics are even more important than protecting people.
Nailed it!

BW
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Old 11-15-2020, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by elkhunter11 View Post
Exactly! The authorities make up new regulations for the citizens, then they select where to enforce , and where to turn a blind eye. Thousands of protestors including the PM gather in close proximity to protest, and no tickets, yet some parent that takes his children to an abandoned park receive $1000+ fine. The borders are closed to the average citizen, but illegal immigrants and temporary foreign workers are allowed into the country. Two teens are fined for being in the same vehicle, yet they allow dozens of airline passengers to sit even closer for hours.
If you are going to make restrictions, make them effective restrictions, and enforce them for everyone. But unfortunately politics are even more important than protecting people.
This is exactly why people are fed up with this thing. You can only lie to the public so long before everything you say becomes unbelievable. Show me the data! Who is selfish in all of this?
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Old 11-15-2020, 08:34 AM
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And how does you wearing a mask protect others, when you touch your mask, then touch shelves, counters and merchandise in stores, or doors, switches glasses etc in a home? If you maintain social distancing, a mask is pretty much useless. A mask does not replace social distancing.
Wearing a mask prevents droplets/moisture from getting into the air when a person speaks or breaths. You are correct it does not replace social distancing but it does help.
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Old 11-15-2020, 08:47 AM
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Wearing a mask prevents droplets/moisture from getting into the air when a person speaks or breaths. You are correct it does not replace social distancing but it does help.
No it doesn’t. For the simple reason that it has replaced social distancing in its execution.
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Old 11-15-2020, 08:47 AM
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I love these people who are very fortunate that they can live in remote places and bashed the city dweller. Who cares about covid we are safe? Karma is a bitch ICU is located in the cities.
Oh you will hear some bitching when they need hospital care and no beds are available......
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Old 11-15-2020, 08:52 AM
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A few interesting articles that I read this morning. It does somewhat support the idea that authorities are making it up as they go along. Maybe Canada needs to step up its contact tracing so we can stop guessing on where outbreaks are occurring.


Where exactly are Canadians catching COVID-19? Authorities are not totally sure.

https://vancouversun.com/health/wher...0-a41a2aa351ab

It would be reasonable to believe that the mother might have contracted covid from her child's daycare.

B.C. baby delivered by emergency C-section while mom in ICU with COVID-19

https://globalnews.ca/news/7462260/c...cu-ventilator/

The results of successful contact tracing

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Old 11-15-2020, 08:55 AM
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No it doesn’t. For the simple reason that it has replaced social distancing in its execution.
Exactly! Unfortunately, some people get the idea that if they wear a mask, social distancing isn't required. That false sense of security leads to unhealthy behavior.
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Old 11-15-2020, 09:02 AM
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No it doesn’t. For the simple reason that it has replaced social distancing in its execution.
I'm sorry, I was commenting on the effectiveness of a mask not a overall effective plan for dealing with covid and comparing it to other options. Never said a mask was 100% effective either but it helps. Did I say a mask was better than social distance...no. A mask helps, social distance helps, washing your hands helps. It is a simplistic view to pick one thing and say it doesn't work because it is not 100% effective.
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Old 11-15-2020, 09:05 AM
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Exactly! Unfortunately, some people get the idea that if they wear a mask, social distancing isn't required. That false sense of security leads to unhealthy behavior.
And we have conditioned that behaviour. I had a friend who was at a small function. His instructions were to wear a mask if he could not socially distance. He kept several feet away from anyone. He was asked not to come back unless he wore a mask. He questioned the socially distancing. He was told to wear a mask anyway. This is not uncommon unfortunately. When people say wear a mask if you can not socially distance that isn’t what they mean. And we all know that.

When this all started, I was in a big chain store. The cashier kept telling me to back up. I complied trying not to make a scene. But she kept at me. Told me I was irresponsible. So fed up I asked how far away I was supposed to be. She screamed, “six feet”! So I then felt it appropriate to point out that I was 20’ away and her and I, nor the lady in front of me, had ever been within 15’ of one another. But a mask we get apparently.
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Old 11-15-2020, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by chuck View Post
And we have conditioned that behaviour. I had a friend who was at a small function. His instructions were to wear a mask if he could not socially distance. He kept several feet away from anyone. He was asked not to come back unless he wore a mask. He questioned the socially distancing. He was told to wear a mask anyway. This is not uncommon unfortunately. When people say wear a mask if you can not socially distance that isn’t what they mean. And we all know that.

When this all started, I was in a big chain store. The cashier kept telling me to back up. I complied trying not to make a scene. But she kept at me. Told me I was irresponsible. So fed up I asked how far away I was supposed to be. She screamed, “six feet”! So I then felt it appropriate to point out that I was 20’ away and her and I, nor the lady in front of me, had never been within 15’ of one another. But a mask we get apparently.
And that is another factor, when covid was new, people made a real effort to maintain social distancing, now that it has been around for several months, many people just put on a mask , and carry on as they did before covid, with little regard for the other precautions. People have become desensitized to the situation.
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Old 11-15-2020, 09:11 AM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: At the lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken07AOVette View Post
Imagine the numbers without masks.
You don't have to imagine. Take a look at BC, which has quite good infection numbers, as well as mask compliance rates.....except Surrey. They seem to have an anti science, anti common sense outlook and their rates are many times higher than the rest of the province. Take a look at all the states just south of us, they coincidentally have a high level of anti mask, don't tread on me attitudes. Scarcely populated, same climate as Canada, just different attitudes. North Dakota (pop. 800K) hit 1000 a day a few weeks ago, and they're up to 2000+ today, plus 20-30 deaths per day. Hospitals are full with infected hospital staff continuing to work due to shortages. They are raging with covid right now, and the winter season has just begun, but you bet they will get together with grandma, grandpa for Thanksgiving. Same goes for virtually every other state along our border.

https://www.wowt.com/2020/11/14/surg...western-towns/
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