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  #121  
Old 02-28-2020, 07:12 AM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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The markets are down a bit.
A fair number of stocks are still overvalued by at least 20%.
It will be interesting to see how next week plays out.
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  #122  
Old 02-28-2020, 08:58 AM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is offline
 
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It's looking like the worst day by far for the TSX, down by over 800 now. And close to 1000 for the DOW.
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  #123  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:17 AM
Map Maker Map Maker is offline
 
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Even gold stocks are falling at the same rate.
It seems people are just selling everything.
Will make for some fantastic buying opportunities.
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  #124  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by elkhunter11 View Post
It's looking like the worst day by far for the TSX, down by over 800 now. And close to 1000 for the DOW.
This is full on panic selling. Everything is getting dumped. Even the "defensive names" like Fortis, Emera, BCE type stocks are off 3-5%.
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  #125  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:36 AM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is offline
 
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Even gold stocks are falling at the same rate.
It seems people are just selling everything.
Will make for some fantastic buying opportunities.
As per usual, some people will lose, and some people will make good profits, it's all a question of when to get back in.
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  #126  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:04 AM
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Don't sell anything. One of my portfolios is green today. What I did wrong?
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  #127  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:04 AM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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I think only ones making money are the shorts , short oil- dwtif. And the vix -tvix.. highly risky
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  #128  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:32 AM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Originally Posted by elkhunter11 View Post
As per usual, some people will lose, and some people will make good profits, it's all a question of when to get back in.
I would bet that the time to get back in is a long way off. The infections are just getting started...........
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  #129  
Old 02-28-2020, 11:33 AM
elkhunter11 elkhunter11 is offline
 
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I would bet that the time to get back in is a long way off. The infections are just getting started...........
Yes it's most likely things will only worsen as the infection spreads.
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  #130  
Old 02-28-2020, 11:37 AM
1stLand 1stLand is offline
 
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The FED will try and stop the bleeding with rate cuts and injecting more money into the money supply.

Kinda like what China did.
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  #131  
Old 02-28-2020, 11:55 AM
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The FED will try and stop the bleeding with rate cuts and injecting more money into the money supply.

Kinda like what China did.
I would wager so, they have to.
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  #132  
Old 02-28-2020, 12:25 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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The FED will try and stop the bleeding with rate cuts and injecting more money into the money supply.

Kinda like what China did.
Thats the problem. Interest rates were kept so low that they don't really have that much room to drop......
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  #133  
Old 02-28-2020, 01:47 PM
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Thats the problem. Interest rates were kept so low that they don't really have that much room to drop......
They could always go negative rates, been that way in Europe for a while. Germany comes to mind.
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  #134  
Old 02-28-2020, 02:01 PM
jstubbs jstubbs is offline
 
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Or Japan...
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  #135  
Old 02-28-2020, 02:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott h View Post
Thats the problem. Interest rates were kept so low that they don't really have that much room to drop......
Quote:
Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck View Post
They could always go negative rates, been that way in Europe for a while. Germany comes to mind.
No doubt we are going to see lower rates coming, maybe by Monday. Powell just announced the Fed was ready to do whatever. We already have 17-20 trillion of negative yielding debt out there. What's a few more trillions. Negative rates are 3/4 of the reason we are seeing the amount of damage over the last week or so, to much risk and risk was not priced correctly.

And the whole thing with monetary stimulus is it isn't going to fix the problem of the bug and it's potential effects on earnings. It might slow the panic a bit, provide emergency liquidity but the market isn't buying it. We had a little pop off of Powells announcement but I don't think the market is buying it. They realize that the only option really left is to follow China's lead and take draconian measures to stop the spread or have a miracle happen. We are going to see earnings get crushed and the US and the rest of the world head into a global recession is how I see it most likely playing out. And no amount of Fed stimulus is going to get shoppers out and businesses investing when everyone crapping bricks and is afraid to move.

The States, Canada and the rest of the world should have payed closer attention to what the hell was going on in China back in January and used an abundance of caution instead of a minimum of caution in preventing the spread. The more information that pops up out of the USofA, the more you realize they have no idea of how far it's spread, their testing is faulty or not in place etc etc. But what's happened in Italy, Iran and S. Korea is probably a week or two away in the States and that's what the market is thinking right now.

WE also spent a decade or so of globalizing the economies of the world. The combined systematic risk of extreme debt levels and extreme interdependence of global supply chains is going to be severely tested. That we could easily have another 1928 or 2008 financial crisis I have no doubt. Hope not but its a good possibility I'm thinking.
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  #136  
Old 02-28-2020, 02:43 PM
fishtank fishtank is offline
 
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antacid makers are a good buy..
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  #137  
Old 02-28-2020, 03:06 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck View Post
They could always go negative rates, been that way in Europe for a while. Germany comes to mind.
You are right, but I sure hope it doesn't get to that. The best thing people can do is make sure they don't have any unnecessary debt. Cash could really come in handy as there could be some great deals on toys if this keeps up for very long. Think back to 2008.....
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  #138  
Old 02-28-2020, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Scott h View Post
You are right, but I sure hope it doesn't get to that. The best thing people can do is make sure they don't have any unnecessary debt. Cash could really come in handy as there could be some great deals on toys if this keeps up for very long. Think back to 2008.....
The negative rates for the last 5 years or so are a contributing factor to the meltdown now, no question. Not carrying any debt load, and only a small mortgage at this point, it's easier to be calm.
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  #139  
Old 02-28-2020, 03:17 PM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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There could be some deals coming up for sure.
Although I donít know why I would ever pay cash if rates turned negative.
Negative rates means Iím paying back less than I borrowed.
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  #140  
Old 02-28-2020, 04:12 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
There could be some deals coming up for sure.
Although I donít know why I would ever pay cash if rates turned negative.
Negative rates means Iím paying back less than I borrowed.
That makes sense on one level, but many will see historic low rates as an excuse to buy what they can't pay cash for.....then something happens. Same scenario plays out every time there is a crash and it's usually the guys that have no debt that walk away in the best shape when the dust finally settles. People can do what they want, but it sure won't be me borrowing.....
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  #141  
Old 02-28-2020, 04:20 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Originally Posted by Twisted Canuck View Post
The negative rates for the last 5 years or so are a contributing factor to the meltdown now, no question. Not carrying any debt load, and only a small mortgage at this point, it's easier to be calm.
Oh yah. Lots of people around with a TON of debt and this could really push more than a few over the edge. A appropriately sized mortgage is one thing but the ones to really feel the first wave will be the guys that leveraged themselves to buy investments...... Just ask the guys that bought $1.7 million dollar homes in Vancouver, that are now worth $1.1 million. They all thought it was going to be so easy too.......
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  #142  
Old 02-28-2020, 04:21 PM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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Thatís up to you but why not set the cash aside. One can always pay off the loan later if the need arises.
And I never could figure out the obsession with trying to pay off loans on toys if one ended up out of work or broke.
Just walk away. They make new toys every day.
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  #143  
Old 02-28-2020, 04:29 PM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott h View Post
Oh yah. Lots of people around with a TON of debt and this could really push more than a few over the edge. A appropriately sized mortgage is one thing but the ones to really feel the first wave will be the guys that leveraged themselves to buy investments...... Just ask the guys that bought $1.7 million dollar homes in Vancouver, that are now worth $1.1 million. They all thought it was going to be so easy too.......
Same issue. No one really needs a million dollar house. If someone else made a poor investment choice that is their problem. Why would I go around asking people how to lose money. It doesnít take much logic to figure out if you buy a house for $1.5 million you probably wonít find a bigger sucker to pay you $3 million. That is called speculation thatís not investing. Some people donít know how to recognize the difference.
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  #144  
Old 02-28-2020, 06:26 PM
KinAlberta KinAlberta is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub View Post
No doubt we are going to see lower rates coming, maybe by Monday. Powell just announced the Fed was ready to do whatever. We already have 17-20 trillion of negative yielding debt out there. What's a few more trillions. Negative rates are 3/4 of the reason we are seeing the amount of damage over the last week or so, to much risk and risk was not priced correctly.

And the whole thing with monetary stimulus is it isn't going to fix the problem of the bug and it's potential effects on earnings. It might slow the panic a bit, provide emergency liquidity but the market isn't buying it. We had a little pop off of Powells announcement but I don't think the market is buying it. They realize that the only option really left is to follow China's lead and take draconian measures to stop the spread or have a miracle happen. We are going to see earnings get crushed and the US and the rest of the world head into a global recession is how I see it most likely playing out. And no amount of Fed stimulus is going to get shoppers out and businesses investing when everyone crapping bricks and is afraid to move.

The States, Canada and the rest of the world should have payed closer attention to what the hell was going on in China back in January and used an abundance of caution instead of a minimum of caution in preventing the spread. The more information that pops up out of the USofA, the more you realize they have no idea of how far it's spread, their testing is faulty or not in place etc etc. But what's happened in Italy, Iran and S. Korea is probably a week or two away in the States and that's what the market is thinking right now.

WE also spent a decade or so of globalizing the economies of the world. The combined systematic risk of extreme debt levels and extreme interdependence of global supply chains is going to be severely tested. That we could easily have another 1928 or 2008 financial crisis I have no doubt. Hope not but its a good possibility I'm thinking.
Great post. Thanks.

And now everyone thatís over extended will expect the government / Fed to bail them out like 2008/09. Sad.
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  #145  
Old 02-28-2020, 06:34 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
Thatís up to you but why not set the cash aside. One can always pay off the loan later if the need arises.
And I never could figure out the obsession with trying to pay off loans on toys if one ended up out of work or broke.
Just walk away. They make new toys every day.
Uh ya... just walking away and not paying off your debt comes with it's own set of issues. Not paying your debts follows you for a loonngggg time.
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  #146  
Old 02-28-2020, 06:39 PM
Scott h Scott h is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
Same issue. No one really needs a million dollar house. If someone else made a poor investment choice that is their problem. Why would I go around asking people how to lose money. It doesnít take much logic to figure out if you buy a house for $1.5 million you probably wonít find a bigger sucker to pay you $3 million. That is called speculation thatís not investing. Some people donít know how to recognize the difference.
Lots of guys in Vancouver dropped $1.5 on houses that were $2.5 3 years later. They thought they were smart as hell, but things can go the other way as well. I'm betting there are a few that dropped some serious coin on homes up in Fort Mac that they wish they could get rid of.

Last edited by Scott h; 02-28-2020 at 06:45 PM.
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  #147  
Old 02-28-2020, 07:42 PM
pikeman06 pikeman06 is offline
 
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Walk away from your debt and payments? ? You must be rocking a fake I.d. You ever read the purchasing agreement on a financed or mortgage property or loan agreement.? You'll only do that once and then the next time when you actually need help that's when the system works ya into the ground. Must be kidding. Bahaha. Good one. 😂
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  #148  
Old 02-28-2020, 08:16 PM
thenaturalwoodsman thenaturalwoodsman is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
Thatís up to you but why not set the cash aside. One can always pay off the loan later if the need arises.
And I never could figure out the obsession with trying to pay off loans on toys if one ended up out of work or broke.
Just walk away. They make new toys every day.

Sheesh!
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  #149  
Old 02-28-2020, 08:38 PM
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Trochu Trochu is offline
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckhead View Post
Thatís up to you but why not set the cash aside. One can always pay off the loan later if the need arises.
And I never could figure out the obsession with trying to pay off loans on toys if one ended up out of work or broke.
Just walk away. They make new toys every day.
I bet you'd understand pretty quickly if someone bought something from you and didn't pay for it. Most consider it stealing.... then there's the whole honoring your word.
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  #150  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:29 PM
Buckhead Buckhead is offline
 
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I bet you'd understand pretty quickly if someone bought something from you and didn't pay for it. Most consider it stealing.... then there's the whole honoring your word.
I am positive I understand how things work. No issues there.
But I am not about to put my family in second place after a boat or quad payment or such. Just the way it is. You do you.
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