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09-26-2018, 06:01 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 2,485
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ditch donkey
Here’s my hang up, as far as US customs is concerned it’s fine for me to own shares in a Canadian marijuana stock, but when they enter a major US exchange, could I potentially find myself in a situation where I may be banned from entry to the US?
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Don't be so sure about that:
https://www.thestar.com/news/cannabi...-official.html
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09-26-2018, 07:52 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 1,052
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I would laugh if the U.S denied our prime minister entry because of Marijuana use. Didn't Trudeau admit to using weed when younger? ha ha ha
I got into the investing a little late. I invested into a company called GTEC. We will see where that goes.
__________________
Fire up the grill cause deer huntin ain't catch and release
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09-26-2018, 12:47 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
[B]
I stand by my point that there are going to be lots of retail John Doe investors who are going to get crushed when this thing turns. By all means it is fine to speculate, and at this point it is nothing but pure speculation, just don’t bet the farm is my advise.
Good luck with your investments.
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I would agree with your points. I don't see how there is any prospects of big profits in this. Any country that legalizes after Canada is obviously doing it partly for $ reasons which means they will grow their own. Thinking that Canada is going to be supplying the world for any length of time is just wishful thinking.
Its not like growing weed is rocket science any more than growing good fruits and veggies. US has many massive greenhouses with people who are well versed in growing science. They could literally flip their crops in weeks if legalized and profit is bigger than existing crops. If you need a weed specialist then just hire one out from under an existing Canadian company or hire one of the experts that has been growing blackmarket hydro weed for the past 20 yrs. Between large companies with massive greenhouses, boutique growers, home growers and blackmarket growers the market is going to be swamped. I believe this has already happened on CO and WA.
As far as drinks and such go. That is going to get dominated by the big players in the end. Coke, anheiser busch etc. They may source their stuff from some of these companies but in the end they will likely develop their own supply or at minimum drive a hard bargain with suppliers much like Costco does.
Just don't see the upside unless gov't decides to go with a quota system and one company gets most of the quota. Even then the upside is capped because too much increase in price will just bring the black market back.
Weed is not a high volume mover. For most casual users even just an ounce will do for a very long time. That means you can grow a large supply with relatively little space or alternately one big greenhouse can supply a lot of people. The risk of oversupply and depressed prices is huge. Nothing adds up to big profits in my eyes.
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09-26-2018, 12:50 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta
Posts: 3,650
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Elkster
Weed is not a high volume mover. For most casual users even just an ounce will do for a very long time. That means you can grow a large supply with relatively little space or alternately one big greenhouse can supply a lot of people. The risk of oversupply and depressed prices is huge. Nothing adds up to big profits in my eyes.
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^^ My thoughts on this exactly.
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09-26-2018, 03:22 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 5,632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weedy1
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Yeah rrright... not a chance! First, you have to admit to the border agent that you smoke weed. Second, they do not have an access to your employment records or especially to your investment portfolio. That’s a bunch of BS.
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09-26-2018, 04:23 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 2,485
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KGB
Yeah rrright... not a chance! First, you have to admit to the border agent that you smoke weed. Second, they do not have an access to your employment records or especially to your investment portfolio. That’s a bunch of BS.
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So, in other words, if you're asked at the border if you smoke weed and do, or have marijuana based investments and do, you first need to lie to the border agent. Then, if they suspect you're lying, they take you into the fun room and ask you 3-4 hours more of fun questions while in another fun room they're interrogating the crap out of the wife who hasn't managed to keep her mouth shut for the last 35 years. They when they're not satisfied they strip search you and your entire family and give the dog an enema. This all while they have contacted CPIC and your local police force to determine if you're hiding anything else.
How good of a liar are you?
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09-26-2018, 04:42 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 5,632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weedy1
So, in other words, if you're asked at the border if you smoke weed and do, or have marijuana based investments and do, you first need to lie to the border agent. Then, if they suspect you're lying, they take you into the fun room and ask you 3-4 hours more of fun questions while in another fun room they're interrogating the crap out of the wife who hasn't managed to keep her mouth shut for the last 35 years. They when they're not satisfied they strip search you and your entire family and give the dog an enema. This all while they have contacted CPIC and your local police force to determine if you're hiding anything else.
How good of a liar are you?
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First, I don’t smoke this sh*t so I don’t have to lie about that.
Second, my wife -if it comes to the interrogation - would deny that she even knows me, lol! Plus she has no clue what kind of investments we hold.
Third, this case scenario is highly unlikely just because it will be pretty much impossible to prove that I have anything to do with weed stocks. The border agents will not even waiste their time on me or like me. They have a bigger fish to catch.
The whole story looks kinda flaky to me. Looks like somebo is trying to create a hype around the issue.
PS. How good am I as a liar? Look at my name, I was trained by the best,LOL!!
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09-26-2018, 04:58 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 2,485
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KGB
First, I don’t smoke this sh*t so I don’t have to lie about that.
Second, my wife -if it comes to the interrogation - would deny that she even knows me, lol! Plus she has no clue what kind of investments we hold.
Third, this case scenario is highly unlikely just because it will be pretty much impossible to prove that I have anything to do with weed stocks. The border agents will not even waiste their time on me or like me. They have a bigger fish to catch.
The whole story looks kinda flaky to me. Looks like somebo is trying to create a hype around the issue.
PS. How good am I as a liar? Look at my name, I was trained by the best,LOL!!
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LOL
Actually what is really happening is the US is trying to deter Canadians from investing in marijuana stocks with this border nonsense so they can protect their own marijuana industry that will be worth billions of dollars in the near future. You could call it premature protectionism. They're not idiots, they're selfish though.
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09-26-2018, 08:30 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 5,632
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Sorry pal I am not following your line of thoughts... how would the Canadian investors negatively affect the US market?
On the other note, the HMMJ - that is the largest weed ETF just TRIPPLED it’s position on Tilray! Wtf? What do they know that we don’t? They also invested into 9 more companies....
Another news is that the Citron Investment, the company that makes money shorting stocks, is planning to get into the weed market by launching the new ETF.... Go figure!
https://www.bnn.ca/1.1143171.1537978735
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09-28-2018, 10:44 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,713
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Tesla
In a round about link to weed, anyone following the ongoing troubles at Tesla. What more can go wrong? Number one is the companies ongoing production issues and the crazy valuation, and now the CEO and founder Elon Musk seems to be falling off the deep end. From smoking weed on an podcast, and now the SEC is charging him with with misleading investors by making false statements regarding taking the company private. Interesting story. Stock took a beating today and more to come I think if a person was into shorting. I think investors have pretty much had enough.
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There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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09-29-2018, 06:08 AM
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 11,372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
In a round about link to weed, anyone following the ongoing troubles at Tesla. What more can go wrong? Number one is the companies ongoing production issues and the crazy valuation, and now the CEO and founder Elon Musk seems to be falling off the deep end. From smoking weed on an podcast, and now the SEC is charging him with with misleading investors by making false statements regarding taking the company private. Interesting story. Stock took a beating today and more to come I think if a person was into shorting. I think investors have pretty much had enough.
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Musk's story is kind of sad, the world needs more visionaries. I hope he makes out OK.
__________________
“One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain.”
Thomas Sowell
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09-29-2018, 08:52 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weedy1
A post earlier today got me thinking. Has anyone bought into the marijuana stock frenzy or any other crazy overvalued stocks? There seems to be a lot of speculative trading and interesting things happening in the market nowadays. I got a real kick out of Marc Cohodes on BNN yesterday concerning the real estate situation in Toronto.
http://www.bnn.ca/video/cohodes-stil...capital~981334
How big of a bubble can be blown? When do you leave the party and take your party favors?
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Don't you wish you had bought into the overvalued marijuana stocks when you made this post originally? Could be up about 500%!!
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09-29-2018, 08:57 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KGB
Sorry pal I am not following your line of thoughts... how would the Canadian investors negatively affect the US market?
On the other note, the HMMJ - that is the largest weed ETF just TRIPPLED it’s position on Tilray! Wtf? What do they know that we don’t? They also invested into 9 more companies....
Another news is that the Citron Investment, the company that makes money shorting stocks, is planning to get into the weed market by launching the new ETF.... Go figure!
https://www.bnn.ca/1.1143171.1537978735
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I have been thinking the same thing. Many things in this sector make no sense and dont follow normal investing logic.
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09-29-2018, 08:59 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 743
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Wrong
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Elkster
I would agree with your points. I don't see how there is any prospects of big profits in this. Any country that legalizes after Canada is obviously doing it partly for $ reasons which means they will grow their own. Thinking that Canada is going to be supplying the world for any length of time is just wishful thinking.
Its not like growing weed is rocket science any more than growing good fruits and veggies. US has many massive greenhouses with people who are well versed in growing science. They could literally flip their crops in weeks if legalized and profit is bigger than existing crops. If you need a weed specialist then just hire one out from under an existing Canadian company or hire one of the experts that has been growing blackmarket hydro weed for the past 20 yrs. Between large companies with massive greenhouses, boutique growers, home growers and blackmarket growers the market is going to be swamped. I believe this has already happened on CO and WA.
As far as drinks and such go. That is going to get dominated by the big players in the end. Coke, anheiser busch etc. They may source their stuff from some of these companies but in the end they will likely develop their own supply or at minimum drive a hard bargain with suppliers much like Costco does.
Just don't see the upside unless gov't decides to go with a quota system and one company gets most of the quota. Even then the upside is capped because too much increase in price will just bring the black market back.
Weed is not a high volume mover. For most casual users even just an ounce will do for a very long time. That means you can grow a large supply with relatively little space or alternately one big greenhouse can supply a lot of people. The risk of oversupply and depressed prices is huge. Nothing adds up to big profits in my eyes.
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You need to do more homework. Rec is not the market but Pharma and CBD is. Also cosmetics will start to weigh in. Constellation didn’t invest $4+B in Canopy for fun. Aurora is top of class if anyone is still looking, about to get a US listing.
You really think people are going to begin growing, people don’t want to smoke it anymore, liquids, vape, edibles etc.
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09-29-2018, 09:48 AM
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Banned
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 2,485
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HighROI
Don't you wish you had bought into the overvalued marijuana stocks when you made this post originally? Could be up about 500%!!
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I owned Aurora stock when I made the first post. Read a little further.
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09-29-2018, 07:00 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trouty
You need to do more homework. Rec is not the market but Pharma and CBD is. Also cosmetics will start to weigh in. Constellation didn’t invest $4+B in Canopy for fun. Aurora is top of class if anyone is still looking, about to get a US listing.
You really think people are going to begin growing, people don’t want to smoke it anymore, liquids, vape, edibles etc.
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The medical side doesn't change anything regarding economics from what I can see. Most pharma drugs are profit centers because they are patent protected and companies can charge thousands a month for treatments until that patent wears off. That is not the case for MJ. Unless people are smoking pounds a month for their treatments medical demand is not going to move the needle that much. Obviously another source for sales but at much lower margins than typical new pharma drugs. The price for medical will not be drastically different from rec MJ. If they try to charge too much more people will just find a recreational sourced alternative.
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09-30-2018, 08:24 AM
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Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by just_dave
Current long holds are HEXO and XLY.
I'm in and out of others.
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I am happy with my Hexo , I think it will be a $12 befor next summer
I'm long in XLY , I believe in what they are doing and setting up , once the product starts coming in from all company's , it will take off , I think they are the best deal at this time of all the pot stocks ,
How high will it go , I honestly think it will be a $15 share at end Dec 2019
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09-30-2018, 07:03 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Yes
Posts: 721
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Cannabis Bubble?
I am having trouble seeing the value in some of these stocks. My opinion is that these share prices are all based on anticipated sales, but looking a market caps, the math doesn't add up. ACB and Weed alone have a combined market cap that is almost as much as the projected world sales next year. Now how many other Marijuana stocks are out there with over a billion market cap? Hundred or more?
Here is a good article that sums up my thinking. http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/in...annabis-invest
And projected weed sales.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...nnabis-market/
Good on the fellows who have made money on these stocks, but I don't understand the valuations and frankly am scared of them. Therefore I don't own any.
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09-30-2018, 09:57 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeOff
I am having trouble seeing the value in some of these stocks. My opinion is that these share prices are all based on anticipated sales, but looking a market caps, the math doesn't add up. ACB and Weed alone have a combined market cap that is almost as much as the projected world sales next year. Now how many other Marijuana stocks are out there with over a billion market cap? Hundred or more?
Here is a good article that sums up my thinking. http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/in...annabis-invest
And projected weed sales.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...nnabis-market/
Good on the fellows who have made money on these stocks, but I don't understand the valuations and frankly am scared of them. Therefore I don't own any.
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I have to say there is definitely money to be made in speculating. I think the key factor to consider is its more about reading the herd mentality and getting out before the stampede rather than it is about market fundamentals. Given the potential margins in speculating I'm thinking long and hard about getting into the game myself but it will only ever be with money I can 100% afford to lose. And I won't be jumping into weed at this point in the cycle.
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10-02-2018, 01:22 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 5,632
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It looks like the end is near, lol!
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10-02-2018, 07:17 PM
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Red Deer
Posts: 1,531
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KGB
It looks like the end is near, lol!
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I'm betting major sell off oct16.
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10-03-2018, 11:54 AM
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Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 5,632
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Frankly, I am out of so called predictions on MJ stocks. There is no common sense that can be applied here, lol!
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10-04-2018, 09:21 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 49
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If you don't see these MJ stocks as a long term hold I believe you are missing the true value. This is an emerging market with huge potential. I understand those who will sell just prior to legalization but if you're long and you don't need the funds park them into one of the big three and close your trading app for a few years.
This of course is just my opinion do as you please but the real money will be made by those who got in early and held while the market matures. If you have the time to day trade go for it there will be dips and good entry points but it's impossible to time the market perfectly. What I do believe is time in this market will make those who have patience very wealthy.
Good luck everyone . Just have a plan and stick to it.
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10-05-2018, 09:46 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yz295
If you don't see these MJ stocks as a long term hold I believe you are missing the true value. This is an emerging market with huge potential. I understand those who will sell just prior to legalization but if you're long and you don't need the funds park them into one of the big three and close your trading app for a few years.
This of course is just my opinion do as you please but the real money will be made by those who got in early and held while the market matures. If you have the time to day trade go for it there will be dips and good entry points but it's impossible to time the market perfectly. What I do believe is time in this market will make those who have patience very wealthy.
Good luck everyone . Just have a plan and stick to it.
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I would love to see your economic projections of market size and potential profit margins etc. given all we know so far about production and production costs and announced taxes and the potential volume of total demand. What market share are you assigning to companies and why? Are you considering new competition in todays market or as other markets open up? I'm happy to be schooled but I need real numbers to change my mind.
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10-06-2018, 07:10 AM
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Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Elkster
I would love to see your economic projections of market size and potential profit margins etc. given all we know so far about production and production costs and announced taxes and the potential volume of total demand. What market share are you assigning to companies and why? Are you considering new competition in todays market or as other markets open up? I'm happy to be schooled but I need real numbers to change my mind.
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Do what you want I am not here to change anyones mind. I posted that post because I was getting so many private messages asking for advice. I have done my due diligence and thats why I have based my long decisions on term investment time in the market. All of the information you requested is all available online and there are lots of good resources. Cost/gram, production kilos, provincial MOUs are all available. You need to do your own due diligence if you plan on investing your hard earned money.
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10-06-2018, 08:35 AM
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Red Deer
Posts: 1,531
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I mean this in jest, I do hope it goes well for everyone.
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10-06-2018, 06:43 PM
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Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 20
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Things were tight when aurora came out so I was an observer, good for who bought cheap!!!!
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10-08-2018, 06:08 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,713
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Just a few numbers on pot stocks, weed usage. The number of medicinal users in Canada was about 220000 in sept 2017 and growing. I think lots of folks are betting on the trend continuing. My thought on the medicinal users is that the growth number will flatten or decline after legalization for the following simple reason. Many medicinal users are chronics that found getting a medical card and having Canada post deliver pot to their door was far easier and discreet than buying it in the traditional way. Once pot is legal, folks who want to smoke will just buy it through the legal distribution network.
There is an article in the Globe this morning on the Colorado experience. Their market had plenty of growth in the first couple years of legalization but now the market growth has stalled out. I imagine the same pattern will repeat here at home. Once legalized, medicinal sales flattened and fell while the recreational side enjoyed growth for a couple years before growth stalled out. Washington state seems to be following a similar pattern.
Just some quick and dirty numbers I dug up in a few minutes. (Feel free to share any better info). The province with the highest per capita usage in Canada had an average annual use per person of 27.1 grams per year. Lets say the legal producers get the entire market and can sell weed at a price of roughly 10$ per gram. So 40,000,000 million people in Canada times $271 is $10.8 billion in sales/year on the “high” side. Take out all in costs of sales, taxes etc, and whats left over? The top few companies in Canada have a market cap of around $40 Billion or so. Any way you look at it the stocks are very expensive.
__________________
There are some who can live without wild things, and some who cannot. Aldo Leopold
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10-22-2018, 10:28 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Airdrie, AB
Posts: 270
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10-22-2018, 12:56 PM
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Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 397
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdub
Just a few numbers on pot stocks, weed usage. The number of medicinal users in Canada was about 220000
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Hmm... That number seems high. That's a big big chunk of our population.
Where did you get this # from?
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