Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[DWS]

.
Just chatted with a contact I have in China, He tells me 2000 deaths and 80000 infections.
Just to put perspective on things, but this does not sound good to me.

[Masterchief]

Time will tell but I don't believe the numbers being provided by China. There is no way they would shut down their economy and lock down 60 million people over a bad case of the flu unless this was extremely serious. Also, there is a good chance this was a bioweapon, which is designed to infect efficiently and kill people. The cruise ship was a population that became highly infected and people are starting to die. This is important because the numbers are under the public view so it will give us insight into real infection and death rates... not looking good at all. The fact that it can be transmitted for up to 14 days before sightings appear is terrifying considering how many people and public objects you come into contact with over that time. Watch what governments do. There are reports of people in there US not being tested unless they have a direct connection to a known infected person, which is seems like a way to control the number of reported cases. Although that may just be fake news. Why would or governments keep us in the dark? to minimize panic? Well I am more than a little concerned. I think by the end of March or April we will have a better idea of the scope of this and I really hope that a lot of you are right and this is just a big scare, but my gut feeling on this tells ne this is going to be very bad.

MC

Sent from my SM-G975W using Tapatalk

[bloopbloob]

Looks like Iran and South Korea are joining the race....

[glen moa]

By the time the government tells you its bad it will be too late.

[buckbrush]

Originally Posted by glen moa

By the time the government tells you its bad it will be too late.

But....they said to stay calm and everything will be ok. They said it’s not as bad as the flu. Are you telling me you don’t think the government would tell us the truth???

Like I said earlier, if there was something to be concerned about, I’m sure they would tell us so we have a chance to riot and loot before it hits hard.

[buckbrush]

Canada’s newest case only traveled from Iran. Iran’s first two deaths didn’t travel out of Iran. I’m thinking there might be a few unknown cases in Iran.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Masterchief

Time will tell but I don't believe the numbers being provided by China. There is no way they would shut down their economy and lock down 60 million people over a bad case of the flu unless this was extremely serious.I think by the end of March or April we will have a better idea of the scope of this and I really hope that a lot of you are right and this is just a big scare, but my gut feeling on this tells ne this is going to be very bad.

MC

Sent from my SM-G975W using Tapatalk

Just have to point out that this figure is incorrect. The real number under some form of lockdown is now reported at 740 million in China. 10% ish of the worlds population. Hard to imagine. This article is from a week ago quoting 500 million at that time.

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-H...3LJ/index.html

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

The theory of SO2 increases being tied into bodies burnt is an Internet sensation. A conspiracy of conspiracy.

So question. A burned pound of coal basically equals a theorized burned human body.

Now in these cities...is there a reason why people would be burning more coal than normal? Could it be theorized that people are isolated to their homes and as such being winter and sitting at home all day may want it warmer? Could that mean more coal is being burnt and causing an increase in SO2?

As for 24/7...strange how China controls so much and yet has allowed people in China to talk about it.

Right now I am 99% certain coal is causing the SO2 spike. My gut says 80% certain they are not going 24/7 and 70% that cremations May be above average use.

740 million people on lock down for a minor flu? I could care less the exact numbers of crematoriums running or the exact reason for SO2 spikes but the Chinese reaction suggests they are very nervous. The amount of reported deaths and infections are a drop in the bucket compared to their overall population.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

Canada’s newest case only traveled from Iran. Iran’s first two deaths didn’t travel out of Iran. I’m thinking there might be a few unknown cases in Iran.

Interesting. There are a LOT of people living in the lower mainland of BC that are Iranian so it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by bdub

Just have to point out that this figure is incorrect. The real number under some form of lockdown is now reported at 740 million in China. 10% ish of the worlds population. Hard to imagine. This article is from a week ago quoting 500 million at that time.

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-H...3LJ/index.html

That many people with some sort of quarantine is AMAZING !!!! Only the Chinese could pull that off. If this virus had started in India or Africa first it would be like having a million "Diamond Princesses" in the world right now.

[muirsy]

Originally Posted by bdub

Just have to point out that this figure is incorrect. The real number under some form of lockdown is now reported at 740 million in China. 10% ish of the worlds population. Hard to imagine. This article is from a week ago quoting 500 million at that time.

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-H...3LJ/index.html

It's not hard to imagine when you consider ~20% of planet lives in China.

It's all relative. There are over 100 cities with >1 million people and 13 cities with >10 million people.

Toss an oppressive communist regime into the mix that controls everything its population does/says/sees and it's very easy to 'quarantine' that many people.

[bdub]

Originally Posted by buckbrush

Canada’s newest case only traveled from Iran. Iran’s first two deaths didn’t travel out of Iran. I’m thinking there might be a few unknown cases in Iran.

WHO is getting nervous over Iran and elsewhere. My pessimistic side is thinking its to late, the rate of spread ex-China indicates this thing is going to be a global pandemic. Mathematically a repeat of 1918-1920 is very likely coming I believe. I hope not but would not be at all surprised now. The rest of world is certainly starting to price in the possibility, the VIX is up in the 17-18 range today and gold is pushing $1650 USD oz. FANG type stocks are seeing a pretty good pullback. I am surprised that oil hasn't taken a bigger dump yet, perhaps things are happening in the middle east that isn't widely known. Interesting times indeed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-worrisome-who

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

740 million people on lock down for a minor flu? I could care less the exact numbers of crematoriums running or the exact reason for SO2 spikes but the Chinese reaction suggests they are very nervous. The amount of reported deaths and infections are a drop in the bucket compared to their overall population.

That post didn’t say minor flu.

This is a serious flu that clearly hits older people and people with underlying health conditions hard. Data is clear on that. Many people have little to no symptoms.

Of course people are nervous. No one wants to see any virus spread that can obviously kill.

So...we both agree this is a serious issue
That many are impacted
That we don’t want it to spread
That people in China don’t like it either.

That SO2 spikes is proof of nothing.

Cheers

Sun

PS.

I am curious if Iran is the place to worry right now. People leaving infected is a problem. Is it on purpose? Are they hiding an outbreak?

[bloopbloob]

Looks like Italy is joining the race. Just added 10 new cases sitting at a total of 19 now, 7 critical/severe.

" 10 new cases in Italy. 10 towns, 30,000 people, placed in precautionary voluntary quarantine. Schools, workplaces, municipal and private offices, coffee shops, and public places closed in the affected towns at least until Sunday"

[bdub]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

I am curious if Iran is the place to worry right now. People leaving infected is a problem. Is it on purpose? Are they hiding an outbreak?

Well, Iran is an even bigger crap hole than China politically.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by bdub

WHO is getting nervous over Iran and elsewhere. My pessimistic side is thinking its to late, the rate of spread ex-China indicates this thing is going to be a global pandemic. Mathematically a repeat of 1918-1920 is very likely coming I believe. I hope not but would not be at all surprised now. The rest of world is certainly starting to price in the possibility, the VIX is up in the 17-18 range today and gold is pushing $1650 USD oz. FANG type stocks are seeing a pretty good pullback. I am surprised that oil hasn't taken a bigger dump yet, perhaps things are happening in the middle east that isn't widely known. Interesting times indeed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-worrisome-who

Spanish flu was far, far worse. It had a 10-20% death rate. Many more died in younger age categories.

From Wikipedia


On the other hand. COVID 19 kills mostly older and people with serious underlying medical conditions. Death rate once the numbers are crunched will likely be sub 1%. Reason is there are many, many people infected that have shown very mild to no symptoms. These need to be accurately addressed in any mortality rate calculation. For now, authorities care less about that and more about stopping the spread and helping the ill.

Learned lesson was as expected. A cruise ship is an infection time bomb. Going on a cruise ship at the moment is Russian roulette.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by bdub

Well, Iran is an even bigger crap hole than China politically.

Not sure about that. China has a tighter grip for sure. On the other hand people are openly rebelling in Iran but Iran is more moderate in the region.

I agree however they slip up big time on the plane downing...they could screw this up as well.

I wonder if s country built on religion gets attacked by a plague...are they more worried about optics versus the virus itself?

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Spanish flu was far, far worse. It had a 10-20% death rate. Many more died in younger age categories.

From Wikipedia


On the other hand. COVID 19 kills mostly older and people with serious underlying medical conditions. Death rate once the numbers are crunched will likely be sub 1%. Reason is there are many, many people infected that have shown very mild to no symptoms. These need to be accurately addressed in any mortality rate calculation. For now, authorities care less about that and more about stopping the spread and helping the ill.

Learned lesson was as expected. A cruise ship is an infection time bomb. Going on a cruise ship at the moment is Russian roulette.

SUBJECT IN FOCUS (UPDATE): Advanced Analytics and Mathematical Modelling
Since the publication of modeling estimates in yesterday’s ‘Subject in Focus’, one research group (Ref. 12) has
provided a correction of their estimate of the Infection-Fatality Ratio (IFR), with the new estimate being 0.94% 95% confidence interval 0.37-2.9). This replaces the lowest estimate of IFR of 0.33%, but remains below the highest
estimate of 1.0% (Ref. 11).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=dfd11d24_2


Not too far off my recent calculations, around 1.06% lately

[urban rednek]

People of the world need to unite to demand that China update its flag to reflect the reality of the current situation. It's only right.
I offer these 2 designs for consideration; I'm in favour of #2.
BTW- anyone happen to hear any new updates about the Hong Kong protests that were starting to spread throughout China?

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

SUBJECT IN FOCUS (UPDATE): Advanced Analytics and Mathematical Modelling
Since the publication of modeling estimates in yesterday’s ‘Subject in Focus’, one research group (Ref. 12) has
provided a correction of their estimate of the Infection-Fatality Ratio (IFR), with the new estimate being 0.94% 95% confidence interval 0.37-2.9). This replaces the lowest estimate of IFR of 0.33%, but remains below the highest
estimate of 1.0% (Ref. 11).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=dfd11d24_2


Not too far off my recent calculations, around 1.06% lately

Thanks. Primed to come down even lower.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Thanks. Primed to come down even lower.

I see it very differently. I think it is ready for a correction, and will be going back up once it's out of China's hands to report the majority of cases/deaths. I also believe now that the spread is taking foothold outside of highly controlled communist China, with 700 million people locked down, it will only get worse. These are some older daily numbers I was getting in the earlier stages, and I think we will be seeing them again, likely higher. Also important to note, this does not correlate to mortality rate, as many cases are yet to be closed. This reflects confirmed deaths as a factor over the previous day. It will probably be in the 3-4% overall mortality when/if this is all said and done.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I see it very differently. I think it is ready for a correction, and will be going back up once it's out of China's hands to report the majority of cases/deaths. I also believe now that the spread is taking foothold outside of highly controlled communist China, with 700 million people locked down, it will only get worse. These are some older daily numbers I was getting in the earlier stages, and I think we will be seeing them again, likely higher. Also important to note, this does not correlate to mortality rate, as many cases are yet to be closed. This reflects confirmed deaths as a factor over the previous day. It will probably be in the 3-4% overall mortality when/if this is all said and done.

It’s a guess I figure either way as we don’t have all the info. It will continue to spurt and burp and still likely never catch all the cases with little to no symptoms. May never know the full extend of exposure.

It’s also possible as it spreads that it gets weaker.

Probably a good time to stop smoking, lose weight and start exercising.

Could be the difference of life and death in a pandemic COVID19.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

Spanish flu was far, far worse. It had a 10-20% death rate. Many more died in younger age categories.

From Wikipedia


On the other hand. COVID 19 kills mostly older and people with serious underlying medical conditions. Death rate once the numbers are crunched will likely be sub 1%. Reason is there are many, many people infected that have shown very mild to no symptoms. These need to be accurately addressed in any mortality rate calculation. For now, authorities care less about that and more about stopping the spread and helping the ill.

Learned lesson was as expected. A cruise ship is an infection time bomb. Going on a cruise ship at the moment is Russian roulette.

The numbers between the Spanish flu and Covid19 look pretty similar, as 20% of the Covid19 cases are serious/critical. All of those patients in that group would probably have died back in 1919 with the care that was available at that time.

[^v^Tinda wolf^v^]

I just spoke with a friend in Shanghai I’ve been trying to contact her since this all started. She said the government is telling people to shut their mouths or face punishment. She also says there are people dead on the streets outside hospitals in many cities throughout China. She heard from others that they seen a person cough up what looked to be a big pile of red puke...from their lungs. The last thing she said is the Chinese government could care less about the people as it’s all about the money and their economy crashing. The other thing I find funny is less than four Klms from ground zero lies some kind of bio chemical testing facility....somebody have a bad day perhaps?

The Canadian government is doing a very poor job of handling this situation and I will hold them personally responsible when it hits my home. I’ll be fixing wagons I’ll tell y’all that much.....

[Drewski Canuck]

It’s also possible as it spreads that it gets weaker. NOPE!!!

The Spanish Flu went through a number of evolutions, and basically went around the world 4 times.

The morphed flu bug that survived the host's immune system was that much stronger than the earlier version that the host's immune system defeated.

Then it moved on to new hosts ...

Dewski

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Drewski Canuck

It’s also possible as it spreads that it gets weaker. NOPE!!!

The Spanish Flu went through a number of evolutions, and basically went around the world 4 times.

The morphed flu bug that survived the host's immune system was that much stronger than the earlier version that the host's immune system defeated.

Then it moved on to new hosts ...

Dewski

Yup. Becoming weaker is not how mutations and evolution works..... Sars had lower transmission rate, MERS had high mortality, makes it much easier to control. This has high transmission, long asymptomatic period, high, but not too high mortality, so as it can keep having hosts. Trifecta.

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Scott h

The numbers between the Spanish flu and Covid19 look pretty similar, as 20% of the Covid19 cases are serious/critical. All of those patients in that group would probably have died back in 1919 with the care that was available at that time.

Excellent point. How long can modern medical care keep up if this continues to grow. Doctors, nurses, front line staff are maxed out, and still with all their precautions, still getting infected and some dying.

[fishtank]

there a case in korea where one of the infected members went to a shadowy church meeting and end up infecting a bunch of em

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/w...incheonji.html

reports of it making it into the prison system...

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

Excellent point. How long can modern medical care keep up if this continues to grow. Doctors, nurses, front line staff are maxed out, and still with all their precautions, still getting infected and some dying.

That's the point, there is no way for our medical system to keep up if we got into a full blown epidemic here in Canada. In the middle of a bad flu season, hospital beds are almost non existent. Surgeries are cancelled at these times because there are no beds for the patient to go too. If you take into account that a good percentage of people get a flu shot (that is better some years than others) the health system is predominantly over run by those who don't bother getting vaccinated. With Covid19 NONE of the population will be protected and it spreads easier than influenza.
Worse case scenarios have been bantered about up to 60% of the population acquiring the virus. 78% of those will get better with rest and chicken soup. 18% will be serious/critical and require hospitalization.
Just think that Calgary has 1.3 million people. 60% of that is 780,000 cases. 18% of those cases would be considered serious enough to require hospitalization. That works out to 140,000 people, JUST IN ONE CITY !!!!

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by Scott h

The numbers between the Spanish flu and Covid19 look pretty similar, as 20% of the Covid19 cases are serious/critical. All of those patients in that group would probably have died back in 1919 with the care that was available at that time.

I believe statistically comparing 20% in serious condition with 1% overall dying is different than 10-20% straight up dying. But I could be missing something.

Otherwise a guess about something that can be proved just make for fun what ifs.