Financial Markets Meltdown - Page 21

Buckhead · #**601** 03-12-2020, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

I have tons of ammo?

Great! I am well stocked with powder and components.

raab · #**602** 03-12-2020, 09:22 PM

Futures down around 1.5%. I think we could break 20,000 tomorrow. I’m hoping for good news by Tuesday...

Eagle Trapper · #**603** 03-12-2020, 10:50 PM

What's after trillion?

fishnguy · #**604** 03-12-2020, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

That was a fart in the wind. I think that 18,500 could very well be tested tomorrow.

If you are saying we are (rather they are) going to hit 18,500 tomorrow... I don’t really know how to finish this sentence, lol.

I think Trump there is a high likelihood Trump will be erased tomorrow and we will touch Obama, so just about a repeat of today. If there are no signs of the government taking control of the spread and dealing with the virus rather than trying to deal with the market, that will be the case, IMO.

fishnguy · #**605** 03-12-2020, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eagle Trapper

What's after trillion?

Trillion and one

Quadrillion.

fishnguy · #**606** 03-12-2020, 11:00 PM

This man knew what to do on the 28th of February. Wonder how it worked out for him.

Like father like son.

fishnguy · #**607** 03-13-2020, 12:08 AM

Hopefully, I am wrong about tomorrow:

Justfishin73 · #**608** 03-13-2020, 06:07 AM

Futures way up then they halt them until the open. Dont like it, no sir, not one bit. Smells like a fish left in the sun all day......

FlyTheory · #**609** 03-13-2020, 06:32 AM

It’s buying season for me

Justfishin73 · #**610** 03-13-2020, 06:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyTheory

It’s buying season for me

Hope you are buying at days end, another sucker's rally to start the day on deck

elkhunter11 · #**611** 03-13-2020, 06:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Hope you are buying at days end, another sucker's rally to start the day on deck

I was talking with a friend about this last night, about how such a decline yesterday, would bring in the buyers this morning. But until the corona fears lessen, I don't see a rally being sustained. My own thoughts, are that this corona panic needs to calm for a bit, for a sustained recovery.

KinAlberta · #**612** 03-13-2020, 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elkhunter11

I was talking with a friend about this last night, about how such a decline yesterday, would bring in the buyers this morning. But until the corona fears lessen, I don't see a rally being sustained. My own thoughts, are that this corona panic needs to calm for a bit, for a sustained recovery.

Canada’s economy has been partially but significantly powered along by the housing bubbles in Vancouver and Toronto. Borrow and spend can bring forward a whole lot of economic activity creating loads of jobs now at a cost of a potentially massive lull in demand after the binge stops. The only pent up demand will be among those priced out of the market. If prices fall, they’ll hold off buying hoping to hit the bottom our out of fear of job loss etc.

So I’ve long wondered if this housing boom busts, would the collapse be somewhat of a twin scenario to the 2007-2010 US housing collapse.

I just hate the fact that taxpayers across Canada will most certainly be required to bail out all those heavily indebted home buyers. Many of whom have become millionaires on paper as a result. The poor aged conservatively saving apartment dweller in Edmonton will be paying higher taxes or earning lower interest as a result of this pending bailout. It will be called “fiscal stimulus”.

fishtank · #**613** 03-13-2020, 07:53 AM

Lots money injected into banks To calm the panic , as reported a lot of company also draw on their credit facilities in fear of loosing it ... good Time to reload tvix , but it should be dropping a lot more , people are not believing this bounce ?

Justfishin73 · #**614** 03-13-2020, 07:56 AM

Gains fading quick. I dont the real effects of everything has been absorbed by North American markets

raab · #**615** 03-13-2020, 08:24 AM

I really don’t understand the market swing this morning. Nothings changed...

KGB · #**616** 03-13-2020, 08:31 AM

Jezzes guys can you PLEASE say something positive today! I really hope this is the beginning of the uptrend and the end of the panic..,

elkhunter11 · #**617** 03-13-2020, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raab

I really don’t understand the market swing this morning. Nothings changed...

I think that this is simply a reaction to the fall yesterday, people can't resist the low prices. As to how long the rally lasts, who knows.

mooseknuckle · #**618** 03-13-2020, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KGB

Jezzes guys can you PLEASE say something positive today! I really hope this is the beginning of the uptrend and the end of the panic..,

It's Friday, I have cold beer, and hope to finish my complete boat reno tonight!!

Justfishin73 · #**619** 03-13-2020, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KGB

Jezzes guys can you PLEASE say something positive today! I really hope this is the beginning of the uptrend and the end of the panic..,

Think I might buy a new gun today

KGB · #**620** 03-13-2020, 08:51 AM

^^. Lol that will do! I just hope it’s not a sone kind of the ZOMBI gun...

Justfishin73 · #**621** 03-13-2020, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KGB

^^. Lol that will do! I just hope it’s not a sone kind of the ZOMBI gun...

Well, I want a 9mm semi nonrestricted......

https://www.cabelas.ca/product/12371...utomatic-rifle

Trochu · #**622** 03-13-2020, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KGB

^^. Lol that will do! I just hope it’s not a sone kind of the ZOMBI gun...

It sure looks like a zombi gun...

Justfishin73 · #**623** 03-13-2020, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trochu

It sure looks like a zombi gun...

Yeah its junk, buying beef instead

Pathfinder76 · #**624** 03-13-2020, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fishnguy

This man knew what to do on the 28th of February. Wonder how it worked out for him.

Like father like son.

I think he will be fine.

bdub · #**625** 03-13-2020, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raab

I really don’t understand the market swing this morning. Nothings changed...

September 29/08 we had a -9% day. Next day up 5%. SP 1106, VIX 47
October 15/08 we had a -9% day. Next day up 4%. SP 907, VIX 69
December 1/08 we had another -9% day. Next day up 4%. SP 816, VIX 68

Market bottomed on March 3/2009. SP 682, VIX 50

Through this whole time frame of the GFC we had the massive cuts, stimulus, bank failures, housing collapse. Kind of what we are expecting here but now we have extreme leverage/debt not just at the personal level, but at the corporate and government levels. This thing is not over in my opinion.

Now we have yields rallying (bonds prices falling) after a couple months of the opposite. That market is in an even bigger bubble than what the stock market is/was in and it may be in the process of popping here. Who really thinks the risk free rate of return is actually 1/2%. Would anyone in their right mind lend money and accept a 1/2% rate of return? It's totally nuts.

The worlds leaders/central banks are just trying to limit the damage here but the market is telling us there isn't much they can do. We basically are going to have to stop the economy for a length of time to get a handle on the virus. I just don't see it happening in the next month or two. I think the bottom will happen when that occurs, when they shut it down and the virus numbers start to level out. The market will then finally see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Just my opinion, don't take any of it seriously. The bottom was probably yesterday.

Justfishin73 · #**626** 03-13-2020, 09:45 AM

Trump declares national emergency, down she goes, yesterday wasn't bottom

The Elkster · #**627** 03-13-2020, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdub

September 29/08 we had a -9% day. Next day up 5%. SP 1106, VIX 47
October 15/08 we had a -9% day. Next day up 4%. SP 907, VIX 69
December 1/08 we had another -9% day. Next day up 4%. SP 816, VIX 68

Market bottomed on March 3/2009. SP 682, VIX 50

Through this whole time frame of the GFC we had the massive cuts, stimulus, bank failures, housing collapse. Kind of what we are expecting here but now we have extreme leverage/debt not just at the personal level, but at the corporate and government levels. This thing is not over in my opinion.

Now we have yields rallying (bonds prices falling) after a couple months of the opposite. That market is in an even bigger bubble than what the stock market is/was in and it may be in the process of popping here. Who really thinks the risk free rate of return is actually 1/2%. Would anyone in their right mind lend money and accept a 1/2% rate of return? It's totally nuts.

The worlds leaders/central banks are just trying to limit the damage here but the market is telling us there isn't much they can do. We basically are going to have to stop the economy for a length of time to get a handle on the virus. I just don't see it happening in the next month or two. I think the bottom will happen when that occurs, when they shut it down and the virus numbers start to level out. The market will then finally see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Just my opinion, don't take any of it seriously. The bottom was probably yesterday.

This thing hasn't even started yet. Shutdowns are only starting. Everyone thinking this is just going to be a weeks long issue are dreaming. This is going to be a see saw battle with the virus for months and months. We quarantine and the virus slows, we get back to work and virus proportionally rears back up. Best we can do is create specialized areas (maybe inside hotels that'll be empty anyways) and greatly increase assisted breathing equipment whilst fast tracking specialized training for med personnel. Transition many existing health care professionals and those in training to be virus specialists only (until this blows over). Also equip critical infrastructure personnel with self contained PPE so they can continue working. Unfortunately we should have started prepping this stuff over a month ago. But instead we listened to the "its just a flu" folks and buried our heads in the sand.

This virus has been proven to be airborne and live in the air for up to 3 hrs (that was the duration of the test but could be even longer). One can't stress enough how much that impacts the spreadability (Ro) of this virus. Basically without a self contained haz mat suit you are not 100% avoiding this thing if anywhere in the wake of an infected person. Airborne viruses can enter via the eyes also. Get out he scuba gear. The airborne element is also likely why this will still spread in hot countries. Virus may not live on hot dry surfaces for too long but it likely can manage in hot air long enough to impact a wide swath around an infected person. I mean the virus does live in people who's temp is 99F. So spread on things like trains and buses and high density physical manufacturing spaces (like China as it gets back to work) is inevitable.

I'll also add that they've also proven that asymptomatic or those showing extremely mild symptoms can carry extreme viral loads in the upper respiratory tract which also helps increase Ro. It doesn't take a sneeze. One can spread just by breathing normally.

fishnguy · #**628** 03-13-2020, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chuck

I think he will be fine.

Lol. I am sure he will be. He also wrote “I would be”, not “I am”.

If someone took him serious though...

fishnguy · #**629** 03-13-2020, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justfishin73

Trump declares national emergency, down she goes, yesterday wasn't bottom

I don’t think he did yet, but I don’t think it would be the worst thing. I think it would be worse to continue with the narrative that everything is fine.

I did some reading at night yesterday (rather today, lol) and most experts, CEO’s, cfo’s, etc seem to agree that what is needed currently is government action in containment of the virus, more than stimulus. Many also say that if you are looking for signs of certainty/stability in the market before 2021, you are dreaming.

Scott h · #**630** 03-13-2020, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mooseknuckle

It's Friday, I have cold beer, and hope to finish my complete boat reno tonight!!

Safest place to isolate oneself would definitely include being on a boat.......