Covid 19: Medical / Technical Thread

[bloopbloob]

I have such a hard time staying quiet.....

For people saying look at our numbers, this is ridiculous, open everything up...
Imagine what our numbers might look like if we didn't take the extreme steps we have so far. It sucks. I get it. I went through a 33 day lockdown myself with zero interaction with the outside world. This is real. Finances suffered, relationships have suffered. Health has suffered. I know it's not just me either. And sure, maybe YOU will be fine, but it's more about protecting others, who may not fare so well. I took the hit, and did not return to work (this week) until symptom free. Deemed an essential worker, so I still have a job at least. Be kind. Be respectful. Try to help others, and don't put them at risk due to you personal beliefs.

[Smoky buck]

Originally Posted by sk270

My concern is not with the lone fisher, but the group.

Those authorities who designate fishing and hunting as essential should consult their dictionaries because they don't understand the meaning of the word.

They are pandering to political pressure from those who haven't got enough self-control to stay away from their hobbies for a few weeks.

You are entitled to your opinion

Myself I am going fishing and hunting within physical distancing rules. I will choose to go through this with common sense instead of fear

I wish you the best

[sk270]

Originally Posted by Smoky buck

You are entitled to your opinion

Myself I am going fishing and hunting within physical distancing rules. I will choose to go through this with common sense instead of fear

I wish you the best

And the best to you as well. I am just concerned with all those people who are not following the physical distancing rules and are thereby endangering others.

Stay safe and healthy.

[MK2750]

Well at least we don't have to worry about ending up in a nursing home. Few of us will be able to afford it after this mess.

Like the good doctors on the video say, the cure is worse than the disease and in their professional opinion it's very much like a seasonal flu. Weren't people burned at the stake for saying that a week or two ago.

It was interesting listening to experts in bacteria and virus explaining how quickly our immune system deteriorates when not exposed to the thousands of bacteria and virus we encounter every day.

[Smoky buck]

I am very curious on what the long term effects are going to be for the countries that go the naturally building immunity path. There is without a doubt science that supports the theory

It is clear life is lost with all methods in place major lockdowns, physical distancing rules, and herd immunity. How much damage is done to the country and overall long term loss of life is still unknown

We are still in the theory stage on all methods but we are still waiting to see the true results

[bloopbloob]

Originally Posted by Smoky buck

I am very curious on what the long term effects are going to be for the countries that go the naturally building immunity path. There is without a doubt science that supports the theory

It is clear life is lost with all methods in place major lockdowns, physical distancing rules, and herd immunity. How much damage is done to the country and overall long term loss of life is still unknown

We are still in the theory stage on all methods but we are still waiting to see the true results

The mutation rate is alarming. Information I have gathered so far indicates we are not building antibodies to create immunity. One study I read had 38 test patients, and they found 11 different strains

[CMichaud]

Originally Posted by sk270

I agree with other posters that it is difficult to tell how much benefit we are getting out of social distancing. However, we are being asked to stay home as much as possible and to remain 2 m away from any person with whom we do not share a residence. Why is that so difficult? Unless we all try, we won't really know how much good social distancing can do. My own observations show that many people are not trying.

On AO I see posters whose hobby is fishing. Many are planning to go fishing soon. Since when is this an essential activity? Others are reading the fine print to see how far they can push things as to whether it is okay to be in the same boat, the same RV, the same campsite, or whatever. This is a recreational activity and it would be nice to see people giving it up for a while in the name of cooperation with the health authorities.

I'm sure some fisher is going to flame me, so go ahead. Remember that we are talking about your hobby, not your livelihood. Same thoughts for those out for a stroll with their four best friends.

It is an interesting problem. In part I think that there is some conflict in what direction we are receiving. From the AG site:

Physical distancing involves taking steps to limit the number of people you come into close contact with. This is not the same as isolation – you do not need to remain indoors, but you do need to avoid being in close contact with people.

To protect yourself and others:

keep at least 6 feet (about the length of a hockey stick) from others when going out for groceries, medical trips and other essential needs

limit the number of times you leave your home for errands; try to limit grocery store visits to once a week

try to have only one person in the household do the shopping

try to shop at less busy times

order online to have groceries or other items delivered if possible

go for a walk in your neighbourhood or park while maintaining distance from others

avoid overcrowding in elevators or other enclosed spaces

follow Alberta’s mandatory restrictions on gatherings

wash or sanitize your hands after touching communal surfaces

One can argue that non-essential travel could result in an increase in potential breeches of social distancing policy by the nature that people are out and about? eg a vehicle accident requiring first responder intervention; walking around a corner and bumping into someone etc.

Having said this, the government acknowledges and seems to accept some risk by condoning walks in parks or the neighbourhood.

My interpretation is social distancing is key not necessarily the type of travel.

[KegRiver]

Originally Posted by MK2750

Well at least we don't have to worry about ending up in a nursing home. Few of us will be able to afford it after this mess.

Like the good doctors on the video say, the cure is worse than the disease and in their professional opinion it's very much like a seasonal flu. Weren't people burned at the stake for saying that a week or two ago.

It was interesting listening to experts in bacteria and virus explaining how quickly our immune system deteriorates when not exposed to the thousands of bacteria and virus we encounter every day.

I may well end up in a seniors center, if this society survives this.

I'm not so sure about that, fear is a very very powerful thing.
People loose the ability to think when frightened bad enough.

We see it here every day now.
When even the words of doctors on the front line goes unheeded, all hope for understanding is lost.

The good book says, there are none so blind as he who refuses to see.

Best wishes to all, I've got better things to do.

[MK2750]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

The mutation rate is alarming. Information I have gathered so far indicates we are not building antibodies to create immunity. One study I read had 38 test patients, and they found 11 different strains

If you were to watch the video posted on the last page you would get some different information. They, being experts in bacteria and virus, suggest that all virus are mutating and generally they are getting weaker. They claim that isolating healthy people actually weakens their immune system making them more susceptible to the millions of other bacteria and virus that surround us daily. These guys are working around these dangerous bugs every day and they didn't find anything about Covid-19 alarming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLV...Z0gv3nHSjtKUXU

[Smoky buck]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

The mutation rate is alarming. Information I have gathered so far indicates we are not building antibodies to create immunity. One study I read had 38 test patients, and they found 11 different strains

If we are not building immunity then write off the hope of an effective vaccine

There is so much contradictions out there I am not jumping on any path being correct. I don’t have the answers but I am starting to see lots of examples that question if anyone truly has the answers

So I will ride it out and observe and adjust as needed

[sk270]

Originally Posted by MK2750

If you were to watch the video posted on the last page you would get some different information. They, being experts in bacteria and virus, suggest that all virus are mutating and generally they are getting weaker. They claim that isolating healthy people actually weakens their immune system making them more susceptible to the millions of other bacteria and virus that surround us daily. These guys are working around these dangerous bugs every day and they didn't find anything about Covid-19 alarming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLV...Z0gv3nHSjtKUXU

Do you have a link to a transcript of this interview? I managed to listen to the first 20 minutes of statistics but have my usual problem with the lower amount of information I can take in listening compared to reading.

They might have a different view if they were working in hospitals in New York city, I think.

Is it relevant that run an Emergency Department practice and are not epidemiologists nor immunologists nor statisticians? Is their practice open or closed under the Covid-19 rules?

The figures I found are Norway (lockdown) had 37 deaths per million people while Sweden (no lockdown) had 217 deaths per million people. The doctor says this is statistically insignificant. Is he correct? Do I have my numbers wrong?

[Glion]

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

I have such a hard time staying quiet.....

For people saying look at our numbers, this is ridiculous, open everything up...
Imagine what our numbers might look like if we didn't take the extreme steps we have so far. It sucks. I get it. I went through a 33 day lockdown myself with zero interaction with the outside world. This is real. Finances suffered, relationships have suffered. Health has suffered. I know it's not just me either. And sure, maybe YOU will be fine, but it's more about protecting others, who may not fare so well. I took the hit, and did not return to work (this week) until symptom free. Deemed an essential worker, so I still have a job at least. Be kind. Be respectful. Try to help others, and don't put them at risk due to you personal beliefs.

Bloop I respect you you and your opinions but I I still am questioning this all. First off we have virtually no antithesis except Sweden and a few states. From those limited samples they are showing all the lockdown is not making a difference. Trust me we did self iso for a couple weeks ourselves because we had to. So I am following it but I still question it as we are only hearing 1 side. The fact that this extremely low mortality rate for those with no preexisting conditions speaks volumes. This current model is not a viable long term solution... it was put in place to try curb it but statistics coming out are not supporting that theory so how long do we continue with this? Sorry I am just not that trusting of our authority or the WHO when we have been lied to in the past.

[Smoky buck]

Originally Posted by sk270

Do you have a link to a transcript of this interview? I managed to listen to the first 20 minutes of statistics but have my usual problem with the lower amount of information I can take in listening compared to reading.

They might have a different view if they were working in hospitals in New York city, I think.

Is it relevant that run an Emergency Department practice and are not epidemiologists nor immunologists nor statisticians? Is their practice open or closed under the Covid-19 rules?

The figures I found are Norway (lockdown) had 37 deaths per million people while Sweden (no lockdown) had 217 deaths per million people. The doctor says this is statistically insignificant. Is he correct? Do I have my numbers wrong?

Just a simple thought and I could be wrong but I would expect Sweden to have a higher death rate to start but if they do develop immunity they will have little to no issues if future waves happen as predicted. Now take Norway that went lockdown I would expect it to have a lower death rate at the start but be impacted a greater level in future waves from a lack of immunity

But if a vaccine is found or if immunity is not possible with Covid19 that would change the outcome for sure

Either way in my opinion it’s way too early to judge long term impact or who is taking the best way to manage the outbreak because it’s far from over yet

[IronNoggin]

We are giving up our freedoms in the fight against COVID-19. The question is will we get them back?

Does freedom – a true freedom of strong precepts rather than meaningless platitudes – interfere with what we must do to survive? And, if it does, how much freedom will we surrender to remain alive, free from disease, adequately fed and suitably housed? All of it? Some of it? None of it?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...-covid-19-the/

[Ken07AOVette]

Originally Posted by sk270 View Post
My concern is not with the lone fisher, but the group.

Those authorities who designate fishing and hunting as essential should consult their dictionaries because they don't understand the meaning of the word.

They are pandering to political pressure from those who haven't got enough self-control to stay away from their hobbies for a few weeks.

Originally Posted by Smoky buck

You are entitled to your opinion

Myself I am going fishing and hunting within physical distancing rules. I will choose to go through this with common sense instead of fear

I wish you the best

He is right though, this is 100% politcial. Locals and FN want hunting and fishing closed to everyone not local, causing supidity, violence and vandallism.

I believe it was 'deemed essential' just to stop the stupidity.

There is nothing essential about it. The grocery stores have said they will not run out of meat. FN do NOT have to eat salmon and moose daily, they are in Walmart Safeway and superstore as much and often as anyone else.

It is political nothing else.

To many of us though, 52 is not a 'few weeks' unless qualify it with 'in the span of a lifetime'. I do not fish anywhere other than the ocean anymore. I also do not take any holidays other than fishing.

[CMichaud]

Originally Posted by sk270

The figures I found are Norway (lockdown) had 37 deaths per million people while Sweden (no lockdown) had 217 deaths per million people. The doctor says this is statistically insignificant. Is he correct? Do I have my numbers wrong?

Simple numbers I found on WorldoMeters...

Norway
Pop: 5.36 million
Cases: 7499
Dead: 201 (2.6%)
Testing: 155125
Tested positive: 4.8%
Total Cases per million: 1383

Sweden
Pop: 10.3 million
Cases: 18640
Dead: 2194 (11.7%)
Testing: 94500
Tested positive: 19.7%
Total Cases per million: 1846

As info, Canada is 1213 cases per million and Germany is 1875 per million


What is intriguing is that Sweden is roughly double the population of Norway.

It has slightly more than double the cases of Norway (but notably has tested much less.

The mortality rate is however much higher in Sweden compared to Norway.

One would think that the mortality rate of COVID-19 would be the same across a similar population given modern hospital/technology and similar demographics.

[Trochu]

They are saying deaths in Sweden will tail off much faster than in neighboring countries and will eventually even out with everyone else. Aka level the curve and drag it out vs get it over with. Guess we'll see.

[sk270]

Originally Posted by CMichaud

The mortality rate is however much higher in Sweden compared to Norway.

One would think that the mortality rate of COVID-19 would be the same across a similar population given modern hospital/technology and similar demographics.

Yes. The difference is that Sweden did not lock down while Norway (and Finland) did so.

Another poster said that we need to compare countries that locked down to those that did not. Well, here is a comparison between two (or three) Nordic neighbours that all have modern health systems and similar life styles. The death rate in Sweden is much higher.

It looks like Canada has done the right thing by locking things down.

[Trochu]

Originally Posted by sk270

Yes. The difference is that Sweden did not lock down while Norway (and Finland) did.

It explains why there are more deaths, don't think it explains why the mortality rate is almost 4x. Does it?

[M.Ote]

Very interesting article pointing out why a lockdown will not accomplish what is assumed it will. I'm sure you can find similar documents supporting both sides. I'm just extremely concerned for of the reprocussions of this lockdown and other deaths in all age groups attributed not making the report card for future decisions. The percentage of people living on the edge of life and death with 10.00 tipping the scale is far reaching in Canada. Its easy to sit in our warm houses and hibernate to slow the inevitable.

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...D-19_in_Canada

[saskbooknut]

This is not a peer reviewed article in a scholarly medical journal.
It is merely an opinion piece.
Be careful where you get your medical advice.

Originally Posted by M.Ote

Very interesting article pointing out why a lockdown will not accomplish what is assumed it will. I'm sure you can find similar documents supporting both sides. I'm just extremely concerned for of the reprocussions of this lockdown and other deaths in all age groups attributed not making the report card for future decisions. The percentage of people living on the edge of life and death with 10.00 tipping the scale is far reaching in Canada. Its easy to sit in our warm houses and hibernate to slow the inevitable.

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...D-19_in_Canada

[xxclaro]

ah never mind,link no worky

[muirsy]

It's been posted before but here's the link again;

2 emergency physicians from California briefing a group on what the current data on Covid-19 suggests in terms of risk & in terms of re-opening the economy. They're using both their own data as well as publicly available data from the CDC.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

It's long but it's an absolute must watch - no here-say, no blog posts, no feelings - just facts based on current data & in the trenches experience.

Very brief coles notes;

- We did a great job reacting to an unknown emergency early on & that probably helped.
- The model that made initial projections appears to be wildly inaccurate (which is good)
- Extrapolating the current data from both the U.S & other countries around the world suggest the risk of dying from Covid-19 is very very very low
- Based on the new data & the very low risk, continuing to keep people out of work and locked down is completely unnecessary & will lead to (and is leading to) collateral damage in other healthcare capacities such as social services (domestic violence on the rise)
- The fear is keeping many people with other very serious medical issues away from hospitals

[sk270]

Originally Posted by muirsy

It's been posted before but here's the link again;

2 emergency physicians from California briefing a group on what the current data on Covid-19 suggests in terms of risk & in terms of re-opening the economy. They're using both their own data as well as publicly available data from the CDC.
- The fear is keeping many people with other very serious medical issues away from hospitals

Other physicians have critiqued this presentation. I do not know who is correct but the critics say that the statistics in the video are incorrect because the testing was done at the partners' ER clinics which are seeing patients who have symptoms bad enough to seek this kind of medical care. The numbers cannot thus be extrapolated to the population at large to estimate the total number of those infected.

The partners' clinics are seeing very few other cases and are mostly doing COVID-19 testing now. Does this influence their urging that the lock down be lifted?

Sweden has seven times as many deaths as Norway or Finland, adjusted for population. How can these ER doctors say that this is not statistically significant? It seems to me to show that stay-at-home, physical distancing and some lock downs are working to save lives, compared to Sweden which has remained open.

I think Canada is doing a good job. We need to listen to our health authorities and take their advice. Of course, some provinces are planning to re-open gradually, based on our circumstances right here.

[muirsy]

Originally Posted by sk270

Other physicians have critiqued this presentation. I do not know who is correct but the critics say that the statistics in the video are incorrect because the testing was done at the partners' ER clinics which are seeing patients who have symptoms bad enough to seek this kind of medical care. The numbers cannot thus be extrapolated to the population at large to estimate the total number of those infected.

The partners' clinics are seeing very few other cases and are mostly doing COVID-19 testing now. Does this influence their urging that the lock down be lifted?

Sweden has seven times as many deaths as Norway or Finland, adjusted for population. How can these ER doctors say that this is not statistically significant? It seems to me to show that stay-at-home, physical distancing and some lock downs are working to save lives, compared to Sweden which has remained open.

I think Canada is doing a good job. We need to listen to our health authorities and take their advice. Of course, some provinces are planning to re-open gradually, based on our circumstances right here.

I'd love to read/watch those critiques - i'm just trying to seek out the most accurate information.

I'm not sure about all of their numbers, but the stats on NY and California they used were accurate.

I'm with you, we need to listen to our health authorities - but these are the types of conversations we need to be having now.

Something I think about daily is at what point does the mental health & wellbeing of millions (as well as the collateral damage) outweigh the death of several thousand?

I wouldn't want to like to be on the panel making those hard decisions - but they'll need to be made at some point.

[wildwoods]

Edited as I’m not going to engage. Life’s better resting and trusting.
Have a good night fellas

[tri777]

Jan 24:

Originally Posted by bloopbloob

"...I'm trying to follow the numbers and rates. This is the real deal. Even if they created a vaccine tomorrow, to produce it would be waaaay too late and in inadequate supply. Rate of transmission is alarming, with 2 week incubation, we are really only at round one of something exponential, just seeing the first wave...."

Just curious Bloop, when is the 2nd wave ?

[CaberTosser]

Originally Posted by tri777

Jan 24:

Just curious Bloop, when is the 2nd wave ?

I'm certainly not Bloop to respond to the question you've posed him, but perhaps this will answer your question? It will be like wildfire from here, at least among the homeless, I've not seen any of them social distancing.

I'm quite surprised that this has taken this long to pop up, but it won't be long now:

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada...Fxt?ocid=ientp


Two clients at Calgary’s Drop-In Centre tested positive for COVID-19 Sunday, marking the first confirmed cases at a homeless shelter in Alberta.

The Drop-In Centre confirmed two clients at its main site tested positive and are recovering in hospital. In response to the cases, the Drop-In Centre will require everyone in its buildings to wear a mask at all times, and all staff and clients will be tested for COVID-19 starting Sunday evening.

“We are all continuing to work diligently to keep our shelter staff and client population protected, and we thank the community for their compassion and kindness at this time,” the Drop-In Centre said in a statement.

All public health protocols are in place and being followed, according to the Drop-In Centre. Any individuals who test positive or are suspected of having COVID-19 will be sheltered in an alternative space.

Community and Social Services Minister Rajan Sawhney spoke Sunday about the provincial government’s efforts to support vulnerable populations during the pandemic.

“Those who rely on social services need our support more than ever before, and we will continue working closely with community partners to address the needs of all who are at risk and help them get through this challenging time,” said Sawhney.

In order to open 14 new shelter facilities to meet physical distancing requirements, homeless shelters and community organizations have received additional financial support and are working toward moving people out of the shelter system and into homes . Since the start of the crisis, more than 400 people in Calgary have been housed, according to the statement.

Sandra Clarkson, executive director of the Drop-In Centre, said the organization has not lost sight of its goal to end chronic homelessness during the pandemic.

“We are focusing our efforts to support people without a fixed address during this pandemic and empower them to move into their own homes,” said Clarkson.

There are 194 hotel rooms across the province that have been outfitted to shelter clients who test positive.

Alberta Health reported another 247 cases of COVID-19 in the province, bringing the total to 4,480.

No new deaths were reported Sunday, so the total number remains at 73, but the number of people receiving treatment in hospital increased to 83, including 20 requiring intensive care. Of the total number of cases, Alberta Health Services has confirmed 1,549 recoveries.

The Calgary zone still has the vast majority of cases with 3,104, followed by the South zone with 598. Only 460 cases are suspected of being community-acquired.

Testing remains accessible to any individual exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19. According to Sunday’s daily update, 4,407 tests were completed in the previous 24 hours.

In the past week, the provincial government increased funding for continuing-care centres, which included raising health-care staffing levels, introducing a $2 per hour wage subsidy and open paid practicums for health-care students. Alberta Health also began posting online the locations of all active outbreaks in long-term care facilities.

As of Sunday, 435 cases have been confirmed at continuing-care facilities and 48 residents have died due to COVID-19.

Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, also announced this week that the gathering restrictions currently in place apply to one-time or annual summer events that could become “super-spreader events” and spark an outbreak of new cases. The Calgary Stampede announced Thursday it would cancel this summer’s Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth for the first time since it became an annual event in 1923.

The City of Calgary has halted all city-organized events and permits until Aug. 31, cancelling all summer camps, events and festivals. The cancellation of city-organized summer camps is expected to lead to the cancellation of other popular summer camps in the city.

Southern Alberta Institute of Technology spokesman Chris Gerritsen said its 2020 summer camp schedule is under review.

“SAIT will have more information to share with our summer camps families this week,” said Gerritsen.

Last week, the provincial government also introduced rent relief for small businesses that have been required to close or had their operations limited to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

The province’s update Sunday also served as a reminder that confidential supports are available online for those struggling with mental-health concerns .

“The Mental Health Help Line at 1-877-303-2642 and the Addiction Help Line at 1-866-332-2322 are available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Online resources provide advice on handling stressful situations and ways to talk with children,” the news release said.

[CMichaud]

I find the difference in numbers we are seeing fascinating.

Looking at WorldoMeters. I try and avoid looking at countries which are likely incapable or unwilling to provide accurate numbers.

Even for more developed (and trust-worthy?) nations, there is undoubtedly differences in how the cases are confirmed, methods of testing ad reporting etc.

So here are some cherry-picked numbers that seem to show the variance in I refer to. Note that these numbers are adjusted on a per million population basis.

Country- Total Cases per Million/Deaths per Million

Spain- 4907/503
US- 2985/168
Canada- 1243/68
South Korea- 209/5
New Zealand- 305/4
Australia- 264/3

[HalfBreed]

Originally Posted by CaberTosser

“We are focusing our efforts to support people without a fixed address during this pandemic and empower them to move into their own homes,” said Clarkson.

There are 194 hotel rooms across the province that have been outfitted to shelter clients who test positive.

I hope the hotel people go and talk to the owner of Pauls Motor Inn in Victoria BC. Glad I don't own a hotel.