Covid Second Wave... a comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by 58thecat

odd you say that...my daughter was a globe trotter...literally went all over the place...said china was disgusting especially in the populated areas people would just literally spit, spit all over the place....old woman just hocking up a luggy from deep in the ol'throat….

I drove to downtown Edmonton for work for years. After a while I clued into the fact that I frequently saw someone spitting. Then I realized that it was a near daily experience! Stopped working downtown but amazingly it’s still a near daily experience!

I find it disgusting. Not sure why. My upbringing I guess. No swearing, no spitting and all that crap.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by RavYak

This is what you said Kurt. Here is more proof.

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...statistics.htm

92 of 225 ICU (40.8 %) of cases have been under the age of 60. A further 60 of 225 (26.6 %) have been between 60 and 69 years of age. Only 35% of those 60-69 cases have to be under 65 for my claim to be true that half the ICU cases are under 65. Even if we forget about the 65 cutoff because there is no data available for it knowing that 40% of ICU cases are under 60 makes it pretty clear that younger people make up a significant portion of hospital/ICU cases.

If we look at hospitalizations instead of ICU 16% of the cases requiring hospitalization in AB have been under the age of 40. This jumps to 26% if you increase age to 50, 41.2% under age of 60.

The other claim you made was to provide links about long term effects which I did.

So what was it you were implying that I didn't understand? I have proven a significant portion of the population going to hospital/ICU are under the age of 65 (if not 50% it is close) and provided reputable resources stating that long term effects can occur.

Like usual your arguments lack substance, feel free to provide evidence or data stating that any of the above is false. It doesn't exist...

Close only counts in horseshoes or hand grenades, or so I’m told.

If you’re cherry picking, go back and cherry pick the part where I said that it’s too early to know the long term effects since the virus is roughly a year old.

And this........

“Especially when you are not just drawing conclusions but rather trying to persuade others that there is no risk in being infected... “

Back this up instead of continuing to spread your bs.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by RavYak

This is what you said Kurt. Here is more proof.

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-1...statistics.htm

92 of 225 ICU (40.8 %) of cases have been under the age of 60. A further 60 of 225 (26.6 %) have been between 60 and 69 years of age. Only 35% of those 60-69 cases have to be under 65 for my claim to be true that half the ICU cases are under 65. Even if we forget about the 65 cutoff because there is no data available for it knowing that 40% of ICU cases are under 60 makes it pretty clear that younger people make up a significant portion of hospital/ICU cases.

If we look at hospitalizations instead of ICU 16% of the cases requiring hospitalization in AB have been under the age of 40. This jumps to 26% if you increase age to 50, 41.2% under age of 60.

The other claim you made was to provide links about long term effects which I did.

So what was it you were implying that I didn't understand? I have proven a significant portion of the population going to hospital/ICU are under the age of 65 (if not 50% it is close) and provided reputable resources stating that long term effects can occur.

Like usual your arguments lack substance, feel free to provide evidence or data stating that any of the above is false. It doesn't exist...

You’ve clearly pointed out this in not an old person problem. He doesn’t get it.

My son’s friend is 24, positive for Covid, on an inhaler, and is now coughing blood. Feels horrible and really wishes he wasn’t out partying with friends.

They should of simply banned private parties, home gatherings of more than the current household, and private socials. Make it a sizeable fine to do so.

Then most businesses can still continue and far less disruption to the economy.

The stupidity of a few is being felt by many.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by RavYak

More than half of the Albertans hospitalized and in ICU are under 65. It takes more of them to get infected but it is actually these younger healthier individuals that overwhelm the hospitals because there are far more of them and because it can take them a while to recover.

Most young healthy people are able to survive but a number of them end up with long term if not permanent symptoms. Heart and lung damage, chronic fatigue, neurological symptoms. All are possible if you have a severe covid infection.

It isn't that easy to just lock up high risk individuals either. You are talking having to lock up/quarantine millions of high risk individuals and associated home care workers etc for potentially years...

The most effective thing to do is for everyone to wear masks in public, wash hands, limit exposure to other people and public spaces, stay home if sick etc. 1 in 10 people that have tested positive continued working etc after having symptoms, that is why it keeps spreading...

Alberta is expected to announce further restrictions shortly as the stress on our hospitals has increased too high. 65% of ICU beds set aside from covid are now full and the remaining 24 beds will be full in the next 2 weeks.

Your very first line “ More than half of the Albertans hospitalized and in ICU are under 65” is false.

From your second paragraph;

Most young healthy people are able to survive but a number of them end up with long term if not permanent symptoms

Again, I said it’s speculation at this point, you say long term and permanent symptoms, who’s statement is more misleading?

I stated the most effective way to slow this is with a 100% lockdown, barring this, I further said those at high risk should take extra caution and not rely on the public or public guidelines to keep them protected, I thought this just to be common sense.

You’re upset because I asked for links for more information? I also stated I didn’t think you were lying but rather embellishing some of your “facts”, and you were in fact doing that.


Here’s a link on covid recovery. 80% of all infected will make a full recovery. This includes high risk patients. Take this how you will, my posts have been from a glass half full rather than a glass half empty perspective. Just because I’m giving people hope doesn’t mean I’m downplaying the virus. I’ve alway tried to give accurate information without fear mongering.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...19-looks-like/

[Talking moose]

Elon musk gets tested 4 times in one day. 2 come back negative, 2 come back positive.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/elon-...-back-positive

[Talking moose]

Same machine, same place, same nurse.

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

If you’re cherry picking, go back and cherry pick the part where I said that it’s too early to know the long term effects since the virus is roughly a year old.

So too early to know all of the long term effects and all the potential dangers with being infected. Correct.

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Here’s a link on covid recovery. 80% of all infected will make a full recovery. This includes high risk patients. Take this how you will, my posts have been from a glass half full rather than a glass half empty perspective. Just because I’m giving people hope doesn’t mean I’m downplaying the virus. I’ve alway tried to give accurate information without fear mongering.

That article says nothing about full recovery... It says 80% of patients have mild symptoms and TYPICALLY (not always) recover within a couple weeks.

Originally Posted by Kurt505

worrying about people under 65 or with no health issues is a waste of time

You literally said to disregard health warnings that are based on the data/evidence accumulated so far. Your comments are dangerous and opinion based and not supported by any science or data. That is the only reason I bothered to respond to you...

40% of hospitalization and ICU cases in AB are people under 60, a number of which are relatively healthy prior to being infected (sorry I don't have stats readily available but there is enough data if you choose to research it). These are the people that make up the other 20% that do not have mild symptoms... Even if you only have mild symptoms you do not necessarily recover within 2 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

Go down to the dashboard and select weekly number of deaths by age. You can see how there is a measurable increase in deaths of all ages including 25-44 years of age.

These are facts and plenty enough reason for people under the age of 65 to take realistic precaution.

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Talking moose

Elon musk gets tested 4 times in one day. 2 come back negative, 2 come back positive.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/elon-...-back-positive

Says it right in the article. Rapid tests. These are known to be lacking accuracy and Elon knows this...

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...ion-tests.html

A recent Cochrane review based on 8 evaluations in 5 studies found the average sensitivity of RADTs compared to RT-PCR was 56.2%

That is why they performed 4 tests. 1 false positive test is not uncommon, 2 false positive tests is less likely. It is standard procedure to perform more tests if one comes back positive.

That is also why he is now getting PCR tests done (far higher sensitivity).

Now if his PCR tests come back with a variety of results that would be a bit more interesting (although it is still possible as the RNA has to be present in the swab sample taken).

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by RavYak

So too early to know all of the long term effects and all the potential dangers with being infected. Correct.



That article says nothing about full recovery... It says 80% of patients have mild symptoms and TYPICALLY (not always) recover within a couple weeks.



You literally said to disregard health warnings that are based on the data/evidence accumulated so far. Your comments are dangerous and opinion based and not supported by any science or data. That is the only reason I bothered to respond to you...

40% of hospitalization and ICU cases in AB are people under 60, a number of which are relatively healthy prior to being infected (sorry I don't have stats readily available but there is enough data if you choose to research it). These are the people that make up the other 20% that do not have mild symptoms... Even if you only have mild symptoms you do not necessarily recover within 2 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

Go down to the dashboard and select weekly number of deaths by age. You can see how there is a measurable increase in deaths of all ages including 25-44 years of age.

These are facts and plenty enough reason for people under the age of 65 to take realistic precaution.

To clarify things for you, I said people under 65 with no underlying health condition is not the demographic to worry about, I did not call for all 65 and under to start licking door knobs. My point was to put a higher focus on those who are a higher risk to complications.

Let’s put hospitalizations into perspective now. Currently in Alberta we have just over 8300 active cases of covid with 225 people hospitalized, less than half hospitalized is under 60, of them I would imagine most of which have underlying issues. These are the numbers. Yes there is a potential for having the worst case scenario however the odds are far greater that those infected will be fine. If you form your risk assessment level according to these numbers, how would you rate your risk level? Be honest and give me a number between 1-10 of your risk being hospitalized from covid 19 if infected. 10 being you’re in the hospital, 1 being only mild symptoms, 5 is the 2 weeks of moderate symptoms, similar to where I rated mine. I went 6.5 because I still have a slight cough which was expected with my prior flu history.


I’m trying to put this into perspective, nothing else.

[Sundancefisher]

https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/manitoba...home-1.5187600

Alberta needs to make it against the law to have private social gatherings and make it a significant fine.

Need to nip this hard and fast and decisively as the minority who are not getting it are causing massive grief for the majority who do.

Their irresponsible behaviour is going to put Alberta into another full lock down sooner or later if we don’t.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/manitoba...home-1.5187600

Alberta needs to make it against the law to have private social gatherings and make it a significant fine.

Need to nip this hard and fast and decisively as the minority who are not getting it are causing massive grief for the majority who do.

Their irresponsible behaviour is going to put Alberta into another full lock down sooner or later if we don’t.

What about school?

I said a long time ago the spike in cases is likely do to school resuming. AHS said it’s most likely our outbreak was from the kid bringing it home from school, now Hinshaw says the number of outbreaks in schools is alarming. Wow.... what a surprise.

[newdrenalin]

Originally Posted by Sundancefisher

There are differences.

Factor in the 2019/2020 response was better than 1918.
Medicine is better now than 1918
People travel more now than in 1918
The Spanish flu killed younger people whereas Covid19 kills seniors over 65




If you look at France...it is very similar.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/

Canada’s daily cases are now spiking.

Shut downs are starting again as it appears apathy has won over common sense in many areas.

You are getting your data from World-O-Meter ? LOL

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

To clarify things for you, I said people under 65 with no underlying health condition is not the demographic to worry about, I did not call for all 65 and under to start licking door knobs. My point was to put a higher focus on those who are a higher risk to complications.

Let’s put hospitalizations into perspective now. Currently in Alberta we have just over 8300 active cases of covid with 225 people hospitalized, less than half hospitalized is under 60, of them I would imagine most of which have underlying issues. These are the numbers. Yes there is a potential for having the worst case scenario however the odds are far greater that those infected will be fine. If you form your risk assessment level according to these numbers, how would you rate your risk level? Be honest and give me a number between 1-10 of your risk being hospitalized from covid 19 if infected. 10 being you’re in the hospital, 1 being only mild symptoms, 5 is the 2 weeks of moderate symptoms, similar to where I rated mine. I went 6.5 because I still have a slight cough which was expected with my prior flu history.


I’m trying to put this into perspective, nothing else.

228 hospitalized on Nov 11th. 240 on the 12th. It isn't the number that is the issue (yet). It is the trend.

A similar trend started weeks/months ago in Europe now many of those countries are reporting hundreds of deaths a day. Even small countries like Hungary, Czechia etc reporting triple figure deaths every day. Belgium shipping patients to Germany for treatment etc.

We are only just heading into our first real experience of covid. We acted quick as a province and nation and avoided the first wave in the spring. Throughout the summer risk is far lower and spread was easily controlled by our actions but now in just the past month signs of trouble are becoming obvious. Healthcare workers are screaming for help. Covid ICU capacity increased from 20% to 77% in weeks. The number of both schools and hospitals with outbreaks has increased substantially. Number of active cases has increased over 5 fold since the beginning of October. Number of cases is still very low considering our population size yet the effects of such a low number of infected is already becoming obvious.

You are right we need to have perspective but we must also be realistic and listen to the warning signs that we are seeing.

2 years ago I would have rated my risk at 1. Now I really don't know with the health stuff I have been fighting. I fought a small wart like growth on my finger for 1.5 years (numerous freezing, use of acid treatments that included topical chemotherapy drugs until finger was raw) before another unrelated treatment (antimicrobial supplements and diet changes) seemed to fix that growth on its own. I don't have obvious obstructive sleep apnea but breathing at night is restricted and I am on CPAP because of it(for the last year now). I have inflammation in pharynx, potentially LPR, which gives me a chronic cough and perhaps slightly affects my breathing. My body doesn't seem to be fighting infections properly and the risk if I contracted covid is probably higher then most my age. That is why I am taking this serious.

[Glion]

Originally Posted by RavYak

228 hospitalized on Nov 11th. 240 on the 12th. It isn't the number that is the issue (yet). It is the trend.

A similar trend started weeks/months ago in Europe now many of those countries are reporting hundreds of deaths a day. Even small countries like Hungary, Czechia etc reporting triple figure deaths every day. Belgium shipping patients to Germany for treatment etc.

We are only just heading into our first real experience of covid. We acted quick as a province and nation and avoided the first wave in the spring. Throughout the summer risk is far lower and spread was easily controlled by our actions but now in just the past month signs of trouble are becoming obvious. Healthcare workers are screaming for help. Covid ICU capacity increased from 20% to 77% in weeks. The number of both schools and hospitals with outbreaks has increased substantially. Number of active cases has increased over 5 fold since the beginning of October. Number of cases is still very low considering our population size yet the effects of such a low number of infected is already becoming obvious.

You are right we need to have perspective but we must also be realistic and listen to the warning signs that we are seeing.

2 years ago I would have rated my risk at 1. Now I really don't know with the health stuff I have been fighting. I fought a small wart like growth on my finger for 1.5 years (numerous freezing, use of acid treatments that included topical chemotherapy drugs until finger was raw) before another unrelated treatment (antimicrobial supplements and diet changes) seemed to fix that growth on its own. I don't have obvious obstructive sleep apnea but breathing at night is restricted and I am on CPAP because of it(for the last year now). I have inflammation in pharynx, potentially LPR, which gives me a chronic cough and perhaps slightly affects my breathing. My body doesn't seem to be fighting infections properly and the risk if I contracted covid is probably higher then most my age. That is why I am taking this serious.

Excess deaths for Europe are currently projected to be right in line with a typical year, unlike in april where they had a spike. Vast majority of hospitals in UK show 2% or less of hospitalizations are due to covid19. Alberta as well is trending right in line with typical mortality rates as with most other years. For reference Alberta typically reports over 2000 deaths per month.
There are numerous studies showing now that lockdowns have minimal to no impact on mortality rates, I have provided numerous links before to the data that backs this up.

[KinAlberta]

Really interesting!

Can you post the supporting links please.



Found this:

Excess deaths? Not in Canada during pandemic’s early days, StatCan says

“ Canada saw 1,145 fewer deaths than expected in the first quarter of 2020, according to preliminary data from Statistics Canada, suggesting there was not a significant number of deaths from undetected cases of COVID-19 early in the pandemic.”



The excess death number was found to be negative in almost every week of the quarter. The only exceptions were one week in late January and the final week of March. Alberta led the way by far, with 374 excess deaths recorded over the three-month period.


https://www.theloop.ca/ctvnews/exces...-statcan-says/

Covid 'excess deaths': Why England and Wales have been the hardest hit countries in Europe - Nottinghamshire Live

To get through the COVID-19 pandemic, we need good information. One hugely important statistic is how many people have died from the disease in various countries. But it’snotoriously difficult to comparedeaths in this way – each nation reports and counts deaths due to COVID-19 differently.

A more promising approach is to measure “excess deaths”. The idea is pretty simple. You estimate how many deaths, from any cause, there would have been if there had been no pandemic. Then you count how many deaths there actually were. The difference between those numbers is the excess deaths. This is exactly what a major new study, published in Nature Medicine, has done for 21 countries.



https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/u...wales-19102056

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries | Nature Medicine


“... estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30–44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31–45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.
...”



https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1112-0

Bolding is mine

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Glion

Excess deaths for Europe are currently projected to be right in line with a typical year, unlike in april where they had a spike. Vast majority of hospitals in UK show 2% or less of hospitalizations are due to covid19. Alberta as well is trending right in line with typical mortality rates as with most other years. For reference Alberta typically reports over 2000 deaths per month.
There are numerous studies showing now that lockdowns have minimal to no impact on mortality rates, I have provided numerous links before to the data that backs this up.

Excess deaths data takes time to populate and you are looking at old data from before when covid started spiking again...

Here is a UK report from the week ending Oct 30th, their most recent data and shows 10% above average which can clearly be attributed to covid cases.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...g30october2020

The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 30 October 2020 (Week 44) was 10,887; this was 148 more deaths than in Week 43.
In Week 44, the number of deaths registered was 10.1% above the five-year average (996 deaths higher).
Of the deaths registered in Week 44, 1,379 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 12.7% of all deaths in England and Wales; this is an increase of 401 deaths compared with Week 43 (when there were 978 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 9.1% of all deaths).

That week they averaged 197 deaths per day for covid (1379/7).

In the past 7 days they have had 2,829 deaths from covid. Over double what it was that last week of October... Based on the above numbers it will be currently accounting for 23% of all deaths in the UK... Literally 1 in 5 people in UK that die are dying from coronavirus right now...

Show me those studies, either they were occurring in places not currently having a spike in coronavirus cases at the the time of study or they don't exist. Numerous European countries went into lockdown the last few weeks. Some of these countries like France are already showing a decline in cases... Their deaths are still peaking because deaths lag cases. The same happened in Italy, France, Spain, UK, New York earlier in the year which all got major outbreaks under control with lockdowns...

Edit: Lockdowns aren't the answer. They are a last resort to get outbreaks back under control. The answer is don't spread your germs to other people...

[KinAlberta]

You posted as I was updating my post. Note my link in the post above to: “Excess deaths? Not in Canada during pandemic’s early days, StatCan says
Canada”

[Glion]

Originally Posted by RavYak

Excess deaths data takes time to populate and you are looking at old data from before when covid started spiking again...

Here is a UK report from the week ending Oct 30th, their most recent data and shows 10% above average which can clearly be attributed to covid cases.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...g30october2020



That week they averaged 197 deaths per day for covid (1379/7).

In the past 7 days they have had 2,829 deaths from covid. Over double what it was that last week of October... Based on the above numbers it will be currently accounting for 23% of all deaths in the UK... Literally 1 in 5 people in UK that die are dying from coronavirus right now...

Show me those studies, either they were occurring in places not currently having a spike in coronavirus cases at the the time of study or they don't exist. Numerous European countries went into lockdown the last few weeks. Some of these countries like France are already showing a decline in cases... Their deaths are still peaking because deaths lag cases. The same happened in Italy, France, Spain, UK, New York earlier in the year which all got major outbreaks under control with lockdowns...

Edit: Lockdowns aren't the answer. They are a last resort to get outbreaks back under control. The answer is don't spread your germs to other people...

So taking Ireland and UK for example cases were declining already before the lockdown had a chance to effect the numbers.
As for the deaths UK had a slight spike for a couple weeks but the weeks prior were below average so on a whole the trend was typical and on a normal curve.
However I tend to look t total and excess deaths rather than just covid deaths and across europe as a whole minus april and early may it has been typical for any year. Though I will say 2019 was not typical as it had very low excess deaths. As for the links I have provided them before just look it up should be a few there as well as a link to a dropbox that contains a pile of data and analysis.

Edit: the data you are quoting are you 100% certain it is deaths From covid19 and not With? Just to be certain thats all

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Glion

So taking Ireland and UK for example cases were declining already before the lockdown had a chance to effect the numbers.
As for the deaths UK had a slight spike for a couple weeks but the weeks prior were below average so on a whole the trend was typical and on a normal curve.
However I tend to look t total and excess deaths rather than just covid deaths and across europe as a whole minus april and early may it has been typical for any year. Though I will say 2019 was not typical as it had very low excess deaths. As for the links I have provided them before just look it up should be a few there as well as a link to a dropbox that contains a pile of data and analysis.

Edit: the data you are quoting are you 100% certain it is deaths From covid19 and not With? Just to be certain thats all

The data I am quoting was from adding up the daily numbers on worldinfometers. Not a perfect source but here is UK's official website which states 2,878 coronavirus deaths the past 7 days so worldinfometers was actually just shy.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

You are right excess deaths were not high through the summer. Should be obvious because most of the countries were posting few deaths related to covid. It is only the past month that things have started to get ugly.

[KinAlberta]

This fall I’d expect flu related deaths in Alberta and Canada would fall below normal year projections as vulnerable (plus associated families get vaccinated), vulnerable are better protected than ever from flu exposure and the general populous is also mask wearing and distancing.

[RavYak]

For anyone still struggling to understand how masks work I just saw this on FB and it explains it perfectly.

[MountainTi]

Originally Posted by RavYak

2 years ago I would have rated my risk at 1. Now I really don't know with the health stuff I have been fighting. I fought a small wart like growth on my finger for 1.5 years (numerous freezing, use of acid treatments that included topical chemotherapy drugs until finger was raw) before another unrelated treatment (antimicrobial supplements and diet changes) seemed to fix that growth on its own. I don't have obvious obstructive sleep apnea but breathing at night is restricted and I am on CPAP because of it(for the last year now). I have inflammation in pharynx, potentially LPR, which gives me a chronic cough and perhaps slightly affects my breathing. My body doesn't seem to be fighting infections properly and the risk if I contracted covid is probably higher then most my age. That is why I am taking this serious.

Sounds like you need to take extra precautions above and beyond what others may require. Perhaps self isolation may be necessary. Look out for #1 yourself rather than expecting other people to

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by MountainTi

Sounds like you need to take extra precautions above and beyond what others may require. Perhaps self isolation may be necessary. Look out for #1 yourself rather than expecting other people to

Although I may potentially be higher risk I am not going to just hibernate for a couple years. I take precautions and hope that if I do get sick it isn't severe.

I have to travel for my work and I spent 4 months on the road this summer. Instead of flying back and forth like I usually would I decided to sacrifice my personal life, rented a car and ended up driving all the way to Montreal hitting up work sites along the way. Only flew back once the whole time. Usually stayed in apartments so I could cook my own meals and avoid crowded hotels, restaurants etc. People that complain that wearing a mask is too difficult don't even have a clue about what sacrifices some other people are taking just because others refuse to do their part.

Not asking you guys to lock down (unless it becomes necessary). Just wash your hands, wear a mask in public, be respectful of other people and realize that things are getting worse quickly. Hospitalizations jumped up another 16 today up to 256 and there was a record high 1026 confirmed new cases. Imo things are going to start getting ugly a couple weeks from now and will probably get a lockdown for Christmas unless people get this under control...

[Glion]

Originally Posted by RavYak

Although I may potentially be higher risk I am not going to just hibernate for a couple years. I take precautions and hope that if I do get sick it isn't severe.

I have to travel for my work and I spent 4 months on the road this summer. Instead of flying back and forth like I usually would I decided to sacrifice my personal life, rented a car and ended up driving all the way to Montreal hitting up work sites along the way. Only flew back once the whole time. Usually stayed in apartments so I could cook my own meals and avoid crowded hotels, restaurants etc. People that complain that wearing a mask is too difficult don't even have a clue about what sacrifices some other people are taking just because others refuse to do their part.

Not asking you guys to lock down (unless it becomes necessary). Just wash your hands, wear a mask in public, be respectful of other people and realize that things are getting worse quickly. Hospitalizations jumped up another 16 today up to 256 and there was a record high 1026 confirmed new cases. Imo things are going to start getting ugly a couple weeks from now and will probably get a lockdown for Christmas unless people get this under control...

the problem I find with it is the numbers dont correlate with the efficacy of mask wearing. Now I still wear one myself. But up until march 2020 numerous studies showed masks did not help with viral transmissions.

Now we have real world data and countries with greater rates of mask wearing have no difference in covid cases per 1000. Of course you can find outliers on either end of the spectrum but on average there is no correlation between mask compliance and cases with countries. Once again I posted data on this a bit ago graphing all different countries and showing their mask compliance rates as well as their covid rates. There was no correlation. What was ironic at the time was in Canada we were mocking the USA for their covid cases and yet they had a higher rate of mask wearing compliance than us at the time.

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Glion

the problem I find with it is the numbers dont correlate with the efficacy of mask wearing. Now I still wear one myself. But up until march 2020 numerous studies showed masks did not help with viral transmissions.

Now we have real world data and countries with greater rates of mask wearing have no difference in covid cases per 1000. Of course you can find outliers on either end of the spectrum but on average there is no correlation between mask compliance and cases with countries. Once again I posted data on this a bit ago graphing all different countries and showing their mask compliance rates as well as their covid rates. There was no correlation. What was ironic at the time was in Canada we were mocking the USA for their covid cases and yet they had a higher rate of mask wearing compliance than us at the time.

You can't look at mask usage and covid prevalence in isolation. Most places where mask usage is high or mandatory so is the population density, rate of public transportation use etc. That is why Toronto and Montreal have struggled so much with covid even though they have far stricter restrictions than we do. That is also why provinces like Saskatchewan are only just starting to implement mandatory mask use. Other factors are similarly important, does the country have schools operational or shut down, are restaurants open for in person dining, gyms etc? Prevalence and efficiency of testing?

Simply put there are far too many factors to ever be able to make a an analysis like that. In order to do so you need to make too many assumptions (in short that all of these other factors are negligible) and it makes the conclusion invalid.

[Glion]

Originally Posted by RavYak

You can't look at mask usage and covid prevalence in isolation. Most places where mask usage is high or mandatory so is the population density, rate of public transportation use etc. That is why Toronto and Montreal have struggled so much with covid even though they have far stricter restrictions than we do. That is also why provinces like Saskatchewan are only just starting to implement mandatory mask use. Other factors are similarly important, does the country have schools operational or shut down, are restaurants open for in person dining, gyms etc? Prevalence and efficiency of testing?

Simply put there are far too many factors to ever be able to make a an analysis like that. In order to do so you need to make too many assumptions (in short that all of these other factors are negligible) and it makes the conclusion invalid.

While there are many factors involved and many inputs the fact that over a very broad spectrum ie many countries many situations it accounts for those situations and allows you to more easily look at 1 thing as most of the things will level out. Sorry that isn't very clear. Ie if you look at many countries combined you get both dense and sparsely populated as well as different measures used. So that therefore allows you to pull out mask compliance and see if it effects any of the numbers and if it would draw any correlation line. The problem is that it doesn't but there are other things you can pull out where correlations can be made quite easily ie climate and seasonal respiratory flu trends.
I realize correlation doesn't equal causation but to ignore it and say there are to many factors just ignores data.
You can even extrapolate out similar climate countries and similar approaches to covid and yet still the numbers and mask eficacy do not correlate

[RavYak]

Still far too many factors. You would need to compare similar countries with similar prevalence of covid, similar other restrictions and similar testing ability.

In order for you to look at many countries combined you need to be comparing them against other groups of combined countries. The overall variance in population density, season, covid prevalence etc needs to be roughly even for the different groups of countries and the only difference between the groups of countries can be mask usage.

Ie these 10 countries have 30% mask usage compared to these 10 countries with similar overall population density, covid prevalence etc but 70% mask usage.

Not only would it be extremely difficult to figure out groups that might work for this but you would also end up with so few group that you would be able to draw only minimal conclusions at best.

[Glion]

Originally Posted by RavYak

Still far too many factors. You would need to compare similar countries with similar prevalence of covid, similar other restrictions and similar testing ability.

In order for you to look at many countries combined you need to be comparing them against other groups of combined countries. The overall variance in population density, season, covid prevalence etc needs to be roughly even for the different groups of countries and the only difference between the groups of countries can be mask usage.

Ie these 10 countries have 30% mask usage compared to these 10 countries with similar overall population density, covid prevalence etc but 70% mask usage.

Not only would it be extremely difficult to figure out groups that might work for this but you would also end up with so few group that you would be able to draw only minimal conclusions at best.

Its actually not to difficult and has been done. And you can pull out other factors and see correlations easily ie population density. So it isn't difficult and many of the countries approached very similarly so when there are differences in cases you can then see what is the same and different between countries. Anyway the whole point is that the science and data does not back up mask wearing as an effective way to combat viral spread. And it actually isn't to hard to back it up with statistics. Whether you want to discredit the statistics is a different matter.

[KinAlberta]

From Germany: a look back at 2020:

https://mobile.twitter.com/newschamb...18075370786816

[KinAlberta]

$8.1 million lawsuit:


Shepherd's Care Foundation faces $8.1M class-action lawsuit over Mill Woods COVID-19 outbreak | Edmonton Journal

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/loc...are-foundation



Winnipeg family looking into class-action lawsuit over mother’s death at Maples PCH

https://globalnews.ca/news/7454507/w...mothers-death/



Lawsuit Claims $600M In Damages Against Ontario Long-Term Care Homes | HuffPost Canada

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...b68fbfc888896a


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