Covid Second Wave... a comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu

[HalfBreed]

^
Must suck to be old in America right about now.

[Map Maker]

Actually in Florida ( which has the highest per capita, elderly population,) they voted economy over Covid health.
I remember my father was the same way, he said if he had cancer and needed $100k for the treatment, he would rather pass away and leave the money for the family.

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

I think you’re spot on, worrying about people under 65 or with no health issues is a waste of time, protecting the elderly and those with compromised immunity systems is the most effective thing to do.

You want roger this virus under control? Lock up the elderly and those with compromised immunity, covid is extremely contagious but it’s not very bad for a healthy person.

More than half of the Albertans hospitalized and in ICU are under 65. It takes more of them to get infected but it is actually these younger healthier individuals that overwhelm the hospitals because there are far more of them and because it can take them a while to recover.

Most young healthy people are able to survive but a number of them end up with long term if not permanent symptoms. Heart and lung damage, chronic fatigue, neurological symptoms. All are possible if you have a severe covid infection.

It isn't that easy to just lock up high risk individuals either. You are talking having to lock up/quarantine millions of high risk individuals and associated home care workers etc for potentially years...

The most effective thing to do is for everyone to wear masks in public, wash hands, limit exposure to other people and public spaces, stay home if sick etc. 1 in 10 people that have tested positive continued working etc after having symptoms, that is why it keeps spreading...

Alberta is expected to announce further restrictions shortly as the stress on our hospitals has increased too high. 65% of ICU beds set aside from covid are now full and the remaining 24 beds will be full in the next 2 weeks.

[RavYak]

It is too bad we don't have the capability to perform mass testing like China has been doing. Story about their latest testing (4.7 million people), tested 2.8 million of them in 2 days.

Would be much more effective and efficient than restrictions/lockdowns but takes a capable system to both manufacture and perform the tests.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-54687533

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by RavYak

More than half of the Albertans hospitalized and in ICU are under 65. It takes more of them to get infected but it is actually these younger healthier individuals that overwhelm the hospitals because there are far more of them and because it can take them a while to recover.

Most young healthy people are able to survive but a number of them end up with long term if not permanent symptoms. Heart and lung damage, chronic fatigue, neurological symptoms. All are possible if you have a severe covid infection.

It isn't that easy to just lock up high risk individuals either. You are talking having to lock up/quarantine millions of high risk individuals and associated home care workers etc for potentially years...

The most effective thing to do is for everyone to wear masks in public, wash hands, limit exposure to other people and public spaces, stay home if sick etc. 1 in 10 people that have tested positive continued working etc after having symptoms, that is why it keeps spreading...

Alberta is expected to announce further restrictions shortly as the stress on our hospitals has increased too high. 65% of ICU beds set aside from covid are now full and the remaining 24 beds will be full in the next 2 weeks.

Do you have any links to back any of your statement up? I’d like to see it because the chart fishguy provided contradicts your icu numbers so I’m just wondering if you can provide links that back up the rest of your statement? It seems most of the medical facts in regards to covid are speculation being that the virus is roughly a year old.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by RavYak

More than half of the Albertans hospitalized and in ICU are under 65. It takes more of them to get infected but it is actually these younger healthier individuals that overwhelm the hospitals because there are far more of them and because it can take them a while to recover.

Most young healthy people are able to survive but a number of them end up with long term if not permanent symptoms. Heart and lung damage, chronic fatigue, neurological symptoms. All are possible if you have a severe covid infection.

It isn't that easy to just lock up high risk individuals either. You are talking having to lock up/quarantine millions of high risk individuals and associated home care workers etc for potentially years...

The most effective thing to do is for everyone to wear masks in public, wash hands, limit exposure to other people and public spaces, stay home if sick etc. 1 in 10 people that have tested positive continued working etc after having symptoms, that is why it keeps spreading...

Alberta is expected to announce further restrictions shortly as the stress on our hospitals has increased too high. 65% of ICU beds set aside from covid are now full and the remaining 24 beds will be full in the next 2 weeks.

Everybody has been social distancing and following guidelines and the case rates are going up. Has anyone thought that maybe these measures regardless of how stringent they are maintained, are useless? Why people think that it keeps going up due to some small group of people not complying? I guess we can just keep on whipping this dead horse.

[Outbound]

Originally Posted by RavYak

The most effective thing to do is for everyone to wear masks in public, wash hands, limit exposure to other people and public spaces, stay home if sick etc.

Italy did that, and more, and they're getting hit hard again. Much of Europe is the same. In fact, almost everywhere that's been more restrictive and had mandatory masking longer is getting hit hard again. In some cases, even harder than places that were more loosely regulated the first time around.

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by RavYak

More than half of the Albertans hospitalized and in ICU are under 65. It takes more of them to get infected but it is actually these younger healthier individuals that overwhelm the hospitals because there are far more of them and because it can take them a while to recover.

Most young healthy people are able to survive but a number of them end up with long term if not permanent symptoms. Heart and lung damage, chronic fatigue, neurological symptoms. All are possible if you have a severe covid infection.

It isn't that easy to just lock up high risk individuals either. You are talking having to lock up/quarantine millions of high risk individuals and associated home care workers etc for potentially years...

The most effective thing to do is for everyone to wear masks in public, wash hands, limit exposure to other people and public spaces, stay home if sick etc. 1 in 10 people that have tested positive continued working etc after having symptoms, that is why it keeps spreading...

Alberta is expected to announce further restrictions shortly as the stress on our hospitals has increased too high. 65% of ICU beds set aside from covid are now full and the remaining 24 beds will be full in the next 2 weeks.

That's a fine copy and paste from the internet.
No real substance
Not firsthand knowledge
Regugitated mumble jumble
Nephew spent a month or so in hospital and no indication that hospitals are bursting or ICU beds being overwhelmed
PS no reefer trucks

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

Everybody has been social distancing and following guidelines and the case rates are going up. Has anyone thought that maybe these measures regardless of how stringent they are maintained, are useless? Why people think that it keeps going up due to some small group of people not complying? I guess we can just keep on whipping this dead horse.

It spreads no differently now than when it first appeared. One person introduces it to a few more, then in a few weeks a thousand people have it.

My guess is that not everybody has been socially distancing. Moreover people are even choosing to gather indoors to socialize.

[Bergerboy]

Originally Posted by KinAlberta

It spreads no differently now than when it first appeared. One person introduces it to a few more, then in a few weeks a thousand people have it.

My guess is that not everybody has been socially distancing. Moreover people are even choosing to gather indoors to socialize.

I am still waiting for someone to correlate changes in the transmission rates to salient points such as phase 2 reopening, schools in etc and nothing so far. Correlate the actual changes that happened and show a cause and effect. Don't guess. When people guess that introduce confirmation bias and make data to fit the result they predetermine. The data need to lead you to the answer, not the other way around. 5+5=10. No matter how bad we want it to =12, it doesn't. You say it doesn't spread any differently than when it first appeard....we still have no idea what it was doing back then.

[KinAlberta]

We need more studies. Analysis paralysis. Do nothing until its too late.

That’s how we got into this mess. No over abundance of caution.

Months later, hundreds of billions in costs, lots of unemployment, its still with us and its still spreading.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by Bergerboy

Everybody has been social distancing and following guidelines and the case rates are going up. Has anyone thought that maybe these measures regardless of how stringent they are maintained, are useless? Why people think that it keeps going up due to some small group of people not complying? I guess we can just keep on whipping this dead horse.

That's the problem, not enough people have been following the guidelines, or they look for loopholes.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by KinAlberta

It spreads no differently now than when it first appeared. One person introduces it to a few more, then in a few weeks a thousand people have it.

My guess is that not everybody has been socially distancing. Moreover people are even choosing to gather indoors to socialize.

Yup. Look no further than BC. The numbers are reasonable/good throughout the province EXCEPT Fraser health (Surrey). One part of the population seems incapable of following guidelines, and the infection rate reflects that. They gather in groups and one will bring the virus into their home. The next thing you no grandma is taking up an ICU bed for 62 days.

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by Scott h

That's the problem, not enough people have been following the guidelines, or they look for loopholes.

That and people are just plain stupid. Have heard multiple times where people are feeling sick and go get tested yet go on as normal while they are waiting to get test results! Obviously showing symptoms but feel they only need to isolate when the test results say so.

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

Do you have any links to back any of your statement up? I’d like to see it because the chart fishguy provided contradicts your icu numbers so I’m just wondering if you can provide links that back up the rest of your statement? It seems most of the medical facts in regards to covid are speculation being that the virus is roughly a year old.

No I am using the same chart... Add up the numbers for all of the ages under 60 and say half of the 60-69 group. It is higher than the over 70 plus half of 60-69 (right around the same amount).

Younger healthier patients still go through severe cases and are what clog up the health system because it can take them 4+ weeks to recover. Many older/immunocompromised patients die relatively quickly in severe cases.

There is tons of data on covid... All you guys need to do is start looking for it. I'll give you a hint, stop reading news headlines and start reading health reports and studies. Get a membership on uptodate and read the multitude of pages/sections on covid. The data is out there, you all just either don't know where to look or can't be bothered.

They announced further restrictions coming. No surprise there. If everyone would quarantine themselves when sick (regardless of whether they think it is covid or not) we probably wouldn't need these extra restrictions...

Anyone paying attention to Europe knows this is just getting started here. Over 10k cases worldwide yesterday, almost double from a month ago. Like them we are doing too little too late. It is going to be a long winter...

[RavYak]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

That and people are just plain stupid. Have heard multiple times where people are feeling sick and go get tested yet go on as normal while they are waiting to get test results! Obviously showing symptoms but feel they only need to isolate when the test results say so.

Yup this is the biggest problem. Soon as you start to feel even the slightest chance of covid sickness you need to quarantine and you don't stop until you get a green light after being tested.

I have been tested once, they tell you right after your test to isolate for 10 days or until results come back negative. They also tell you that if results are negative but you still have symptoms to continue to isolate.

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

That and people are just plain stupid. Have heard multiple times where people are feeling sick and go get tested yet go on as normal while they are waiting to get test results! Obviously showing symptoms but feel they only need to isolate when the test results say so.

Society will always have to deal with the fact that at any point in time, half the people have a below average intelligence. ;-)

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

That and people are just plain stupid. Have heard multiple times where people are feeling sick and go get tested yet go on as normal while they are waiting to get test results! Obviously showing symptoms but feel they only need to isolate when the test results say so.

Correct, but a major factor of covid is that many have virtually zero symptoms. If people only follows the safety practices laid out for us when they suspect they are sick, then there will be substantial spread fro those in the community that have no symptoms.

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by RavYak

Yup this is the biggest problem. Soon as you start to feel even the slightest chance of covid sickness you need to quarantine and you don't stop until you get a green light after being tested.

I have been tested once, they tell you right after your test to isolate for 10 days or until results come back negative. They also tell you that if results are negative but you still have symptoms to continue to isolate.

Worst part is that two of these were hockey coaches! Now every one of the kids on the team needs to isolate for 14 days from the last time of contact.

[Kurt505]

Originally Posted by RavYak

No I am using the same chart... Add up the numbers for all of the ages under 60 and say half of the 60-69 group. It is higher than the over 70 plus half of 60-69 (right around the same amount).

Younger healthier patients still go through severe cases and are what clog up the health system because it can take them 4+ weeks to recover. Many older/immunocompromised patients die relatively quickly in severe cases.

There is tons of data on covid... All you guys need to do is start looking for it. I'll give you a hint, stop reading news headlines and start reading health reports and studies. Get a membership on uptodate and read the multitude of pages/sections on covid. The data is out there, you all just either don't know where to look or can't be bothered.

They announced further restrictions coming. No surprise there. If everyone would quarantine themselves when sick (regardless of whether they think it is covid or not) we probably wouldn't need these extra restrictions...

Anyone paying attention to Europe knows this is just getting started here. Over 10k cases worldwide yesterday, almost double from a month ago. Like them we are doing too little too late. It is going to be a long winter...

First off, you can’t take half the numbers between 60-70 because the numbers rise exponentially, that’s blatantly obvious just from looking at the chart.

Secondly your answer is no, you have no links to back up your claims. I’m not saying everything you posted is fake news but I do believe you’ve embellished some of your information.

Lastly, I’ve actually had the virus so I think my first hand information on its effects are more accurate than what you’ve heard. To add to this, when talking with AHS, they said most cases are even milder than what I experienced. I can believe that because of the 7 other people I personally know who’ve had it.

There’s all kinds of information on the internet, lots of false information. I’m speaking from first hand experience.

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Correct, but a major factor of covid is that many have virtually zero symptoms. If people only follows the safety practices laid out for us when they suspect they are sick, then there will be substantial spread fro those in the community that have no symptoms.

They had symptoms enough to go and get tested.

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

They had symptoms enough to go and get tested.

Many people end up getting testing because of suspected exposures, and some get tested because of mild cold like symptoms.

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Many people end up getting testing because of suspected exposures, and some get tested because of mild cold like symptoms.

Yes but my point is that if there is a slightest chance you isolate until you get the test results. It takes a day or two to get results right now!

[Outbound]

Originally Posted by RavYak

Yup this is the biggest problem. Soon as you start to feel even the slightest chance of covid sickness you need to quarantine and you don't stop until you get a green light after being tested.

I have been tested once, they tell you right after your test to isolate for 10 days or until results come back negative. They also tell you that if results are negative but you still have symptoms to continue to isolate.

The problem is everything is a symptom covid. Wake up with a headache from dehydration? Covid. Eat something that doesn't agree with you and feel a little off? Covid. Don't sleep well and feel tired? Covid. Roll your ankle and it swells up? Covid. Ok, maybe not the last one but you get the point.

I do those checklist things everyday at work. If I check yes to one of them, I have to go get a test and miss 10 days of work. Almost everything on the list is something that fluids, tylenol and rest will take care of in 24 hours. That's why people don't take this as seriously as some want and why they don't report minor symptoms.

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by Outbound

The problem is everything is a symptom covid. Wake up with a headache from dehydration? Covid. Eat something that doesn't agree with you and feel a little off? Covid. Don't sleep well and feel tired? Covid. Roll your ankle and it swells up? Covid. Ok, maybe not the last one but you get the point.

I do those checklist things everyday at work. If I check yes to one of them, I have to go get a test and miss 10 days of work. Almost everything on the list is something that fluids, tylenol and rest will take care of in 24 hours. That's why people don't take this as seriously as some want and why they don't report minor symptoms.

How come you have to miss 10 days of work? Work requirement even if you get a negative test result?

[Scott h]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

Yes but my point is that if there is a slightest chance you isolate until you get the test results. It takes a day or two to get results right now!

Absolutely. One thing that would help immensely would be quicker turn arounds for test results. Having suspected cases isolate for 10 days when they are negative seems like something that we now have the ability to improve on.

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by Kurt505

First off, you can’t take half the numbers between 60-70 because the numbers rise exponentially, that’s blatantly obvious just from looking at the chart.

Secondly your answer is no, you have no links to back up your claims. I’m not saying everything you posted is fake news but I do believe you’ve embellished some of your information.

Lastly, I’ve actually had the virus so I think my first hand information on its effects are more accurate than what you’ve heard. To add to this, when talking with AHS, they said most cases are even milder than what I experienced. I can believe that because of the 7 other people I personally know who’ve had it.

There’s all kinds of information on the internet, lots of false information. I’m speaking from first hand experience.

Now that the most vulnerable are better protected the vast majority of cases will be mild or show no symptoms. Right from the start the vast majority had mild to no symptoms. Probably like the annual flu or common cold.

That said, it is far deadlier to vulnerable people than the flu. (i.e. a lot more people are apparently vulnerable to covd-19 than they are vulnerable to the flu.) In aggregate the lack of vaccinations and possibly any natural defensive means that the aggregate deaths associated with catching Covid-19 will be far higher until vaccinations are available.

So the vast majority (generically speaking) should have little immediate concern for their own well being. If they are normal, emotionally sound and intelligent and not narcissistic they should have a concern for the risk they pose to others. (Like not shooting a gun into the sky in a crowd.)

The vast majority though should be somewhat interested about the unknowns related to catching the virus. (Such as any long term latent conditions, future dementia and the like, feedback loops or whatever starts to be revealed by research.)

[AndrewM]

Originally Posted by Scott h

Absolutely. One thing that would help immensely would be quicker turn arounds for test results. Having suspected cases isolate for 10 days when they are negative seems like something that we now have the ability to improve on.

My buddy had his kid tested then had to get tested himself the past weekend. Both were just over 24 hour turnaround so not bad at all. Making them isolate for 10 days regardless of test results makes me question the efficacy of the testing to begin with.

[Sundancefisher]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

That and people are just plain stupid. Have heard multiple times where people are feeling sick and go get tested yet go on as normal while they are waiting to get test results! Obviously showing symptoms but feel they only need to isolate when the test results say so.

Yup. Friend’s just back from his Ontario cottage. Drove back through Manitoba and decided not wise to visit his mother in the nursing home right now.

Turns out a guy from BC thought it was okay. Visited his mom. Gave her Covid and it’s spreading through the facility.

Yes it directly from a friend and not me however a month ago I had almost no such reports from friends...now getting to be too many to count.

The info is in the news. Main source of transmission spread is people ignoring the rules and have family and friends private parties. Secondary spread to other places like schools and businesses. School spread is minimal due to current behaviour practices...however more and more students are coming back from these parties sick.

It’s overwhelming the processes.

It would be sweet justice if these miscreants were the only ones to lose their jobs, lose their businesses, lose their homes. I don’t wish them to see loved ones die...but sadly it will be.

[KinAlberta]

Originally Posted by AndrewM

My buddy had his kid tested then had to get tested himself the past weekend. Both were just over 24 hour turnaround so not bad at all. Making them isolate for 10 days regardless of test results makes me question the efficacy of the testing to begin with.

? I don’t understand ?